Bank On It: 4 QBs Ahead of the Bears Pick in the First Round

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“I keep hearing people say it’s better for the Bears if all the top QBs get drafted BEFORE their pick at No. 8. Why? With mediocre talent in the top 10 this year, wouldn’t it be better if at least a few of the top QBs dropped so the Bears are best positioned to trade down and gain picks? – @kunicks

“I don’t know about that. There could be a damn good player sitting there at No. 8 if three quarterbacks come off the board in the top seven picks. If somehow, and I think this is a bit of a longshot, four quarterbacks go in the top seven, I know there will be a damn good football player available at No. 8. For the sake of discussion, let’s say three quarterbacks are selected in the top seven picks. Let’s assume Penn State running back Saquon Barkley and North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb are also gone in the top seven picks. That’s five players off the board and that leaves Alabama defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, Virginia Tech linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith as well as Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward and Florida State safety Derwin James, among others. That’s a pretty good group if you ask me.”

It sounds to me like Biggs is underestimating the odds that 4 quarterbacks are going off the board before the Bears pick. The key is how highly do teams value that fourth guy, presumably former Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield.

I’ve participated in a seven round mock draft with representatives from the other 31 NFL teams every year for the last five or six years. These guys know their teams and have a pretty good idea of what they’re thinking is. The trends that come out of these mock drafts tend to be very representative of what happens on draft weekend.

Amongst other things, this group very accurately predicted the run on first round quarterbacks last year at a time when not that many people thought as many would go as early as they did.

This year’s mock started last week and I’m not allowed to release the results, yet. But suffice it to say 4 quarterbacks went in the top 5 picks.

Four quarterbacks will be gone before the Bears pick at #8. Book it.

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