Could the Bears Finally Be in a Position to Get a Compensatory Pick in 2026?

Kevin Fishbain at The Athletic answers your questions:

If Tyrique Stevenson takes a step and the CB newcomers impress, would the team kick the tires on trying Terrell Smith at safety? A lot of decisions for the safety room have to be made soon, and he seems like he’s someone who needs to be on the field more. — John R.

Now, if you’re looking for potential trade chips — again, this is not a report, just summer speculating — you could look at these two players, especially if the Bears feel good about rookie Zah Frazier. This is a position of depth. This will be a pressure-packed season for Stevenson. He can get a new deal after 2025, and he’d love to be known for more than the Hail Mary in Washington. The talent is there, but can defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and defensive backs coach Al Harris get it consistently? Former defensive backs coach Jon Hoke often waxed poetic about Smith, whose main challenge has been staying healthy.

You’re right, John, that the Bears have some questions at safety in the future with both starters on expiring contracts and no one necessarily waiting in the wings. I’m always hesitant, however, to suggest a position change. Smith probably has the instincts to play safety, but it’s not a position he’s played in his football career — unless he did it before high school. Interestingly, when looking at Dane Brugler’s 2023 scouting report of Smith, he writes, “he has an intriguing blend of length, speed and physicality to match up with NFL receivers on the outside. He is a physical press-man corner prospect.” That would seemingly line up well with Allen’s defense.

Having Smith as the top backup at corner is a nice commodity, especially on his contract. But if the Bears feel really good about Frazier, then maybe it’s a discussion worth having. Until then, they’re probably better off with Smith at his usual spot.

I have a feeling that this discussion is centered upon the wrong cornerback when it comes to who will be on the roster in 2026.

A lot depends upon the kind of year that Stevenson has, but this might be a situation where some good drafting has put the Bears into the position of finally picking up a compensatory pick.

Players with Stevenson’s past aren’t always let go immediately. But eventually the team in question is faced with a choice and that choice is usually to let the problem child go.

Stevenson’s emotions might leave him wound too tight for the Bears to be able to depend on him long-term. Letting him walk and replacing him with Smith might bring very little change in terms of skill level, and especially if Frazier works out well, there could finally be the kind of depth at a position of strength to allow a player to leave for a reasonably expensive contract and be replaced with a cheaper option and a fourth-round pick.

Of course, this would also require the Bears to finally stop having to build their team through the free agent market at other positions. A huge assumption, but if they manage it, it would be a sign of health that we haven’t seen in Chicago in a long time and that we’ve never seen long-term.

With Stevenson’s past, he might need to have a lights-out season to interest the Bears in signing him with the players waiting in the wings behind him.

Safety is an issue with Kevin Byard, Jonathan Owens, Jaquan Brisker, and Elijah Hicks all in the final year of their contracts. Something tells me that GM Ryan Poles sees this position as one that can be filled easily with mid- to late-round picks and second-tier free agents. He certainly hasn’t been in any hurry to invest in the position. If so, presumably Allen is on board. So it will be interesting to see how he uses the talent he has at the position.

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The Question Isn’t “How Fast Can Williams Learn?” But “How Well Is He Taught?”

Sean Hammond at the Chicago Tribune answers questions after minicamp:

As the Bears head toward training camp, the biggest question facing Caleb Williams is _____?

Sean Hammond: How quickly he can become Ben Johnson’s star student.

Williams will be spending a lot of one-on-one time with Johnson. During minicamp, we saw the beginning stages of that relationship. There were mistakes. There were huddles that took way too long. Instances when the coach chewed out the quarterback for being late on a throw. Those things happen — and should happen — in the spring. Johnson demands a lot of his quarterback.

The question becomes how long Williams will need before he’s thinking like Johnson. Here’s a thought that Bears fans probably don’t want to hear: This probably will take time. If this looks ugly in September and October, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Johnson seems so detailed and so determined to build his offense and develop his quarterback the right way that he won’t cut corners to get immediate results in Week 1 or Week 2.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the 2025 Bears feel a lot like the 2022 Detroit Lions, who started 1-6 before winning eight of their last 10 to finish 9-8. The Lions didn’t hit their stride until midway through the season, but when they did, they looked like a juggernaut in the making.

The real question in my mind is, “Can he learn what he needs to know?” The question is, “Can he learn what he needs to know from the coaching staff as it’s currently composed?”

I’m not going to harp too much again about the lack of quarterback coaching experience on the staff except to say that I continue to have doubts about Johnson,Declan Doyle, andJ.T. Barrett, none of whom has spent any time as an NFL quarterback position coach. Passing game coordinator Press Taylor has but, though he is occasionally mentioned as being involved, I’m not sure how much and on what level he is.

The problem is, perhaps, elaborated by a situation where Johnson was yelling, “Faster! Faster!” at Williams as he ran a play while the media was present. All present were apparently impressed by Johnson’s intensity and his willingness to coach Williams hard. But is that really good coaching?

The thing is, anyone can yell, “Faster!” at a player. Heck, I can do that. I’m sure Johnson’s mentor, John Shoop, screamed things like that all the time when he was the Bears offensive coordinator in the early 2000s. His intensity was very high, just like Johnson’s, and he reputedly used to sit in the dark and watch film until his eyes would bleed.

And yet, Shoop ran the most miserable offense I’ve ever seen. The reason was because, though he could tell a player that he needed to process faster, he very evidently couldn’t tell players how to actually do it.

In contrast to Shoop, Johnson ran one of the most successful offenses in the NFL for three years running. But he did it with Jared Goff, a veteran quarterback who could respond to shouts of “Faster! Faster!” with little extra coaching. And what he did need could be provided by Mark Brunell, the Lions quarterback coach since 2021. Goff age and experience put him into a position to take advantage of Johnson’s schematic ideas and execute them with just that little bit of extra coaching that Johnson and Brunell could provide. That’s why he was a success. But is second year player Williams in the same position after a rookie year with what was almost universally acknowledged to be subpar coaching?

Yes, Williams’ success will be dependent upon his ability to learn. But, probably even more, it’s going to depend upon Johnson’s ability to teach. And we should all certainly be hopeful that his technique will consist of more than shouts of “Play better!”

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The Bears Should Not Plan to Move Shemar Turner to Defensive End in Passing Situations

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

Do the Bears plan to move Shemar Turner to the edge? Edge is a priority need despite everyone’s obsession with running backs. — @barbersquires

There may be a chance that Turner lines up at defensive end in occasional (see: rare) pass-rushing situations. I could see that happening once in a while. But Turner — whom the team lists at 6-3, 290 pounds — is a defensive tackle. If things go well, he will develop nicely behind Grady Jarrett and become a stalwart three-technique. Jarrett signed a three-year contract, but you’re essentially looking at a two-year, $30 million deal with a team option for 2027 for a 32-year-old entering his 11th season.

The Bears need to coach up Turner at tackle and let him develop there. Defensive end could be a position they look to supplement later this year — before training camp or potentially after roster cuts. There aren’t a lot of great options right now in terms of unemployed pass rushers.

I couldn’t agree more with this.

The Bears that went to the Super Bowl at the end of the 2006 season were never the same once Tommy Harris was lost to injury late in the year. Having one or more good three-technique tackles is critical to the performance of the kind of one-gap, penetrating defensive line that defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will usually run.

The Bears need pass rush. They don’t necessarily need it to come from defensive end. You can apply a lot of pressure on the quarterback from a three-technique, where the player has the shortest route to the quarterback.

I think that the Bears should see what Turner can do, and specifically how much pressure he can generate, at defensive tackle before they start moving him around.

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Did Ryan Poles Board Really “Speak to Him” on Every Pick?

Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune gives fellow writer Sean Hammond his take on an issue related to how GMs handle their board during the draft. It’s a long response but a good one so I quoted it in full.

True or false? Ryan Poles’ goal to have the Bears big board speak to them during the draft was a grounded, sensible approach.

Wiederer: I’m all for practicality. I’m all for draft discipline. And I do think resisting temptation is the safest route to avoid forcing the issue at certain positions.
In this particular draft, the Bears board spoke loudly about the running back position in a way that pushed them in different directions and toward other positions over each of the three days.

But… (and you had to know there was a big “but” coming), it feels obligatory to point out that the pride every front office across the league feels about its draft board is at a minimum a display of overconfidence. It may even register as misguided.

After all, Sean, what can we say definitively above all else about the draft? It’s that the boards, in totality, are always wrong. Always.

Over time, that has been proven again and again and again — whether you’re a basement draft prognosticator or a veteran NFL GM. The prospect rankings are always off. And while we don’t know specifically how or where each board is flawed in the moment, we learn over time as highly drafted prospects underperform and fall out of the league and later-round underdogs become stars.

So why is it then that every NFL GM feels obligated to treat his draft board as an answer key rather than acknowledging it for what it really is — a best guess and rough estimate of how the talent evaluation team sizes up players.

That’s why I don’t pull the confetti poppers when GMs celebrate their marriage to the board. It’s why I’m a little skeptical of Poles’ oft-repeated goal in this draft of letting the board speak to him. As much potential as [second round pick Luther] Burden seems to have, did the Bears really need another wide receiver right now instead of finding, say, a starting left tackle, a dynamic running back, a talented edge rusher or a young safety? On Day 3, did they really need to make a dice roll on speedy linebacker Ruben Hyppolite II rather than address those aforementioned positions?

I’ll close with this. Listening to the draft board often feels prudent and reassuring. But we have proof that the Halas Hall draft board is often a fountain of lies.
In 2022, for example, the board steered Poles toward Velus Jones Jr. over Kerby Joseph, Nakobe Dean and Brian Robinson Jr. The next year it pointed to Zacch Pickens over Tank Dell and De’Von Achane.

In 2019, Riley Ridley was a had-to-have “best player available” when Dre Greenlaw, Andrew Van Ginkel and Charles Omenihu were on the board.

And by now, you certainly know the history of 2017, of Trubisky over Mahomes, of Shaheen over Kittle (and Mixon and Kamara and Kupp and Godwin and Hendrickson). So, yeah.

A couple thoughts here.

First, though he was far from perfect, I have always been a big fan of the way that former GM Jerry Angelo handled the draft. Angelo always said that you should never, ever fall completely in love with a player. There are no “must have’s” in the draft and its because of exactly the reasons that Wiederer points out. Its an imperfect process.

Former GM Ryan Pace‘s greatest flaw was that he thought that acting with “conviction” was the best way to handle player acquisition. Everyone was a “must-have,” and he overpaid for players that weren’t as good as he thought most of the time because of it. Trading up for Trubisky is a prime example.

Getting back to the present, I have generally had no problems with the way that Poles has handled the draft. But I’m not at all convinced that he stuck slavishly to his board. Word is that the Bears had Shemar Turner rated higher than Ozzy Trapilo but that the disappearance of the offensive tackles in front of them, especially Anthony Belton two spots ahead of them, convinced them to take the offensive tackle while they could still get one that they liked.

In this respect, I’m also looking at the pick of TE Colston Loveland instead of former Georgia defensive end Mykel Williams. The 49ers were glad to punce on Williams when the Bears didn’t take him. Via Michael David Smith at nbcsports.com.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said GM John Lynch was trying to trade into the Top 10 to get Williams, but the 49ers’ offers were turned down.

“We had a good idea he was going earlier, and you don’t actually know. We thought about going up and John definitely attempted. . . . But they shot him down,” Shanahan said, via 49ers.com. “And so, we were ready to watch him go away and we were ready to go to our second and third, but he didn’t go where we thought he was going to go. Then we got to our pick and I was like, ‘I can’t believe you tried to trade there, of course he was coming [laughter].’ So that’s our thing about the draft, you never know. But we stuck there and waited for our guy and we got the guy we wanted.”

It’s possible that the Bears didn’t like Williams as much as the 49ers. But I think that few neutral observers would argue that they need the pass rusher far more than another tight end.

The Loveland pick smacks of the possibility that new Bears head coach Ben Johnson insisted that he get another Sam LaPorta for his offense, even though Williams, a defensive player, might have been the better pick.

In fairness, scouts will say that, though teams draft the “best available”, the best available tend to be at the positions that teams need because those needs are in the back of everyone’s minds as they evaluate the prospects. So it’s possible that Johnson’s desire for a tight end drove the player rankings.

Either way, no matter what Poles says, I don’t think that he slavishly followed a draft board where all of the prospects were fairly evaluated for talent.

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What is the Plan at Tackle in 2025?

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

Who is the starting left tackle Week 1? — @brendo120

That’s a real unknown and a question one would imagine the Bears hope to have an answer for before the preseason starts. Braxton Jones’ recovery from ankle surgery clouds the situation. If he’s ready to go at the start of training camp, he’s probably right in the mix.

One question the Bears have to answer — and there are a bunch — is how do they get their best five linemen on the field. If we agree that left guard Joe Thuney, center Drew Dalman, right guard Jonah Jackson and tackle Darnell Wright are four of their best five, it’s a little easier to play the guessing game. In that case, Jones, Kiran Amegadjie and maybe Wright are options at left tackle, with Wright and second-round pick Ozzy Trapilo the choices at right tackle.

Would the Bears be comfortable with Wright on the left side? He played some there at Tennessee but was primarily a right tackle in college, and the Bears drafted him to play on the right side. Is Trapilo potentially significantly better at right tackle than Jones or Amegadjie is at left tackle? In that scenario, perhaps Wright plays left tackle and Trapilo starts at right tackle. I don’t think Wright would be in his best position at left tackle, but maybe he’d take to it naturally.

That’s a long way of saying it’s premature to do anything but guess who will be the left tackle in Week 1.

It’s definitely premature. But thinking about these things in the offseason is one reason why the NFL is a 365-day-a-year sport.

I have to believe that the Bears had a plan when they drafted Trapilo. You don’t take a player in the second round unless you plan for him to start sooner rather than later. My gut tells me that he was drafted to play right tackle.

I’m going to leave Amegaji out of this since, like everyone else, I have no idea what to make of him. He was drafted in the third round, and it is evident he was taken based on traits. He was a boom or bust pick, and he probably still isn’t ready to start.

So that leaves, in an ideal world, Jones and Wright competing on the left. Again, I’ll point to the fact that they drafted Trapilo in the second round as evidence that the Bears feel that Wright might be the better choice. Otherwise, you don’t draft a replacement for him on the right side.

This reasoning all assumes that everyone, especially Trapilo, plays like Ryan Poles thinks they can play. But they play the games for a reason, and that certainly might not be the case. The odd man out here would be Jones, but I’ve never been as down on him as some other people have. With all of the improvements that they’ve made on the interior, if he’s your worst-case scenario at left tackle, I don’t think that you are doing that badly.

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Will T. J. Edwards Be the New Bears Middle Linebacker?

One of the Bears draft picks that has been criticized reasonably heavily was the selection of Ruben Hyppolite in the fourth round.

Hyppolite is a speedy but undersized linebacker, and my first thought was that he’d be a good special teams player and that’s why they picked him there. I’ve heard it suggested multiple times that he could have been drafted to play on the strong side, where the Bears currently have a hole in their roster. But in my opinion, that’s nonsense. At 236 pounds, Hyppolite would have to gain too much weight to make that a viable option.

However, a recent question in a Bears press conference to T.J. Edwards has made me rethink the idea a little bit (at 4:47). Edwards was asked about the possibility of moving to middle linebacker.

Question: [Defensive coordinator] Dennis Allen said that you would have an opportunity to play in the middle and sometimes outside backer. How do you view that opportunity this upcoming season?

T. J. Edwards: He’s definitely mentioned that and and just in terms of the way he’s installing is just teaching concepts. He wants everyone to understand everything so that we can go out there and play fast no matter who’s in in what spot which is something I think as a defense it helps you in the end, understanding kind of how the whole picture fits.

But to me I think I’ll kind of do whatever is asked of me. I played Mike most of my career and got here and played a little bit of Will, played a lot of Will, and got to understand that.

I understand the areas I need to be better at, understand the things I do well. So I’m pretty comfortable in both. I think [Tremaine Edmunds] and the rest of linebackers feel the same way. So I think for us, we’re just trying to learn in general kind of the whole concepts of the defense and then from there on out we’ll kind of figure out, I’m guessing, where we’ll play.

Edmunds has underperformed in the middle the last two years since coming to the Bears from Buffalo, where he also never played to his potential. It’s possible that, as suggested in the video clip, Edwards could move to the middle. That might put an undersized, speedy guy like Hyppolite at the weak-side linebacker spot with Edmunds, listed at 250 pounds, on the strong-side part-time when the Bears are in their base 4-3 defense.

Much has been made about what the Bears will do at left offensive tackle, and that is certainly the biggest mystery among Bears observers as the team works out during the offseason going into camp. I’ll have more to say about that in another post.

But I think this situation at linebacker bears watching. That strong side linebacker spot isn’t the most critical one on the field by any means. But they are going to need someone to step in there and play well the relatively small fraction of the time that they will be in base defense. And there’s no doubt that there’s room to improve in the middle full time.

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Is Thuney a One Year Rental?

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers my question:

Joe Thuney has not been extended and is still on a one-year deal. Is it at all possible that the Bears will retain him for the year, groom someone younger behind him and try to use the compensation system to recoup their draft pick in 2027? — Tom S.

I suppose your scenario is possible, but I seriously doubt the Bears acquired Thuney with a plan to play him for only one season. Then what? Back to the drawing board for a starting spot on the line — assuming the other four starters play at the desired level and remain healthy? That doesn’t seem like a great plan to me, especially if the Bears wind up with Braxton Jones or Kiran Amegadjie at left tackle with the knowledge they’d have to reevaluate that position in 2026 if neither one takes a significant step forward. Now you’re talking about having to replace the left side of the line next March. We’ve seen that movie before, haven’t we?

If the Bears thought Thuney had only one season of high-level play remaining, they probably wouldn’t have made the move for him. In the event they are considering this as an option, you should know the highest compensatory draft pick they could receive for Thuney would be a fifth-round pick in 2027. The league caps comp picks at Round 5 for players with 10 or more years of service, and this will be Thuney’s 10th season.

My hunch is the Bears will look into a possible extension for Thuney. The fact one hasn’t been completed yet is neither surprising nor concerning. The front office has been busy with free agency and draft preparation. It takes two to get a deal done, so obviously Thuney would have to want to sign an extension.

I’m appreciative of the thoughtful response to this question.

I had no idea that the league caps the compensatory picks for players with 10 years of service or more. My assumption is that this is supposed to give more freedom of movement to players who have earned that right through long-term service.

Having said that, I still think this is a debatable point.

Yes, if you only keep Thuney for one year, you take the chance that you’re back where you started. But if I’m climbing into the mind of GM Ryan Poles (a scary thought), surely I’m thinking that sometime in the next two years I can find a young guard in the draft, right? Ultimately, isn’t that the goal? You’re always trying to get younger, and Thuney could be a progress blocker to a younger, cheaper prospect at a time when the Bears are thinking about extending QB Caleb Williams.

And let there be no doubt about it. They will be extending Williams almost no matter what the cost. The only real question will be whether he wants to stay in a dysfunctional organization that completely botched (at the very least) his first year of development.

Under those circumstances, how much cap space do you want to be tied up in your offensive guards?

I’m sure Thuney has a lot left in the tank. And I’d love to be able to see him in there for a few more years so that we could all just have one less position to worry about. If the Bears decide to go in that direction, it would be perfectly fine with me. But I’m not convinced that they think that they can afford it.

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Rome Was Not Built in a Day. And Other Points of View.

  • Dan Izzuta at the 33rd Team speculates upon what the Ben JohnsonCaleb Williams offense will look like:

“Williams was a better and more willing passer on play-action from under center than given credit for. It just often rarely worked within the game script for the Bears to settle into anything but throwing from shotgun.

“Last season, 92.3 percent of [Lions QB Jared] Goff’s play-action passes came from under center, while just 60.4 percent of Williams’s did.

“It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Rome Odunze play more from the slot in a role similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown. That could give Williams a trusted target for some of those middle-of-the-field routes and a go-to receiver on slants for an easy completion.

“Odunze was more effective in the slot as a rookie (1.55 yards per route run to 0.97), and his size could work as a power-slot role while still getting opportunities to work outside.

“As a rookie, Odunze lined up in the slot on 33.7 percent of his snaps. St. Brown was in the slot 44.1 percent of the time in 2024.

It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if Williams was under center more. As what most people would characterize as an “old school” football fan, I’ve always believed in the downhill running game with the play action pass off of it. It seems that, at least with the Lions personnel, Ben Johnson agreed with that philosophy. It certainly wouldn’t break my heart to see him. Try it here in Chicago.

Having said that, he’s gone, and he’s got a lot of work to do in order to set that up. It’s no news to anyone that the Bears need offensive linemen, and if they want to run a downhill running game, it’s going to be a determining factor in terms of the characteristics that they will look for in the linemen that they sign and draft. Certainly, they will look for a lineman who can block effectively in the running game.

I’m not sure about how I feel about the idea that Odunze would play in the slot. My gut feeling is that he could play any wide receiver position on the field. He might be more valuable as a downfield option on the outside. Just to my eye, he looked at me like he was quite capable of playing that role.

Once again, it will depend upon who their other wide receivers are. I don’t see the Bears re-signing Keenan Allen, but if they do, Odunze obviously doesn’t play regularly in the slot.

  • Kevin Fishbain at The Athletic answers your questions:

    “Do you see any chance that the Bears draft tight end Tyler Warren out of Penn State, and do you see any similarities, skill-wise, between him and Brock Bowers? — Michael L.

    “After what Bowers did as a rookie — 1,196 receiving yards — teams will certainly be looking for the next great tight end. Warren was outstanding at Penn State and showed tons of athleticism. In Dane Brugler’s top 100, he’s ranked No. 10, right where the Bears pick.

    “As mentioned in the Bears’ salary-cap preview, should the team decide to move on from Cole Kmet, it would create cap space without saddling them with a lot of dead money. However, I look at it differently. Kmet had his best catch percentage last year and a career high in yards per target, but the offense did little to feature him. Now enter Johnson, who oversaw Sam LaPorta’s production in Detroit. Maybe Kmet can’t get to that level, but from a resources perspective, I’d be more intrigued with the possibility of the Bears adding a second tight end behind Kmet as opposed to using a top-10 pick on one. This, of course, hinges on Johnson’s evaluation of both Kmet and Warren.”

Yes, I certainly could see the Bears drafting a tight end. That would fit with a run-based, play-action offensive plan outlined in the comment I had above.

But first round? Given the Bears needs along the line of scrimmage, I’d be very surprised. The Bears would have to be absolutely convinced that Warren would be a superstar.

Would that make Kmet available to trade? Sounds like a mistake. He’s a good, young player and I think you need two good tight ends who can block. We know Kmet can do that.

  • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

    “Given that it can be difficult to find multiple OL starters in the same draft and Ryan Poles is hesitant to spend big on individual players in free agency, do you think the Bears will focus on signing less expensive linemen and maybe forgoing Trey Smith? Specifically, could Drew Dalman become a priority free-agency signing at center coupled with someone like Brandon Scherff at right guard? The team could follow up by using its first three draft picks on OL, DL and RB. — Tim T.”

    “It’s difficult to forecast how the puzzle will be put together. We’re a month away from the start of free agency. I could envision a scenario in which the Bears sign two offensive linemen in free agency and add one with a premium draft pick — one of their first two selection. They also could double down on offensive linemen by taking two in their first three picks and signing two veterans in free agency.

    “If Smith doesn’t reach free agency or the Bears don’t land him, there’s a long list of experienced guards they could consider. Scherff, 33, is probably older than they would want to consider, at least as a Plan B. You’re talking about more of a stop-gap measure than a building block.

I hate the idea of dipping into free agency to try to fill these gaps on the offense and defensive line of scrimmage. There seems to be a general assumption that the Bears need to rebuild everything in one year. I don’t necessarily think that that’s the case.

Poles has been effectively given a vote of confidence by surviving the Matt Eberflus regime and Johnson is a new coach who will be given multiple years to turn this thing around.

I think the Bears organization will be satisfied in 2025 if the team simply shows improvement and gives them some hope that the current structure is the future.

  • Biggs answers another one:

    “Have heard and read the Bears may have had interest in Micah Parsons. Do you think with the coaching change they still have interest and, if so, what would the comp be? If it’s just the first-rounder this year, I could convince myself to do it. You? — @the maxconnor1

    “In the event the Cowboys decide to take calls on Parsons, every team should have interest. But your compensation for acquiring him — one first-round draft pick — is incredibly light. A package to acquire Parsons would start with two first-round picks and grow from there. Then the acquiring team likely would have to sign Parsons to a deal making him the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL.

My only comment here is that it’s a good draft for defensive linemen. Indeed, if the Bears go best player available, I would bet that defensive lineman would be the pick. Indeed, offensive line could be the “quarterback” of this draft. A lot of teams need help there. Good players could fall because of that.

  • Again from Biggs:

    “Why are the Bears always near the top of the “cap room available” lists entering the offseason? It’s obviously better to have cap room than not but it’s also better to be in the playoffs than not. What does Ryan Poles need to change in his cap management to make us a perennial contender? — @therealphedog

    “The Bears have not always been near the top of the league in available cap space. Remember, when Poles took over in 2022, the Bears were pressed against the cap and wound up making a series of moves to clear the books and reset their ledger. In doing so, they carried roughly $85 million in dead cap space that season.

    “Since then they’ve had one of the younger rosters in the league, and generally speaking that can mean more players on cost-controlled deals. The Bears haven’t had a highly paid quarterback since Jay Cutler’s eight-year run. It’s safe to say few teams (if any) have used less cap space on quarterbacks than the Bears since the start of the 2017 season, the first year without Cutler.”

    “When you don’t have a lot of players to give second contracts to, it makes it easier to manage the cap. I’d remind folks what I wrote coming out of the Senior Bowl last month. I think there’s a solid chance the Bears will attempt to get an extension done with nickel cornerback Kyler Gordon, who will be entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2025. That’s a move that could take a little chunk out of the cap space.”

I couldn’t agree with this more.

In a way, the questioner is right. The fact that the Bears have so much cap space is, in a way, a damning fact. They just haven’t drafted enough players that they want to keep. If you draft better, then you need to re-sign those players and that’s where your cap space will go. And, of course, that’s where it’s best utilized. Because you know those players are the best.

  • And more from Biggs:

    “Ryan Poles has been very cautious in free agency in the past. Is that, in your opinion, a reflection of who has been available or Poles being afraid to pull the trigger? — Steve, Chicago”

    “The Bears haven’t been the most aggressive team in free agency the past couple of years, but they’ve spent a good deal of money. Poles has been relatively calculated and is perfectly willing to ‘pull the trigger,’ as you say. Some additions have worked better than others, and I would imagine the Bears will be aggressive in pursuing offensive linemen and potentially some defensive linemen this year.

    “I think some folks have put way too much stock in the idea the Bears have a boatload of available cap space. That’s a good thing and it gives them flexibility, but you can’t build the framework for a perennial contender via free agency. The Bears have been entirely too reliant on free agency over the last two decades or so, mostly because they’ve been unsuccessful at stocking certain positions via the draft. Free agency should be a means to plug a hole here or there. So a measured approach is always prudent.”

I would obviously agree with all of this.

I might add that the reason that the Bears have so much space is because so many players that were on the team last year don’t have contracts with them this year. The Bears have 31 players set to become free agents: 21 unrestricted, five restricted and five exclusive rights. That exaggerates the cap number because, while there’s a lot of money to spend, they have to use it to sign a lot of players. It’s also a reflection of how many players they have signed in the past that they haven’t wanted to keep long-term.

  • And more from Biggs:

    “It looks like the Bears are going to focus on the center/guard positions this offseason. After watching what Philadelphia’s defensive line did to Kansas City with its outside rush, is it realistic to think an average left tackle like Braxton Jones could stand up to a playoff-level pass rush? — Marc B., Nashville, Tenn.

    “I would not rule out the possibility the Bears land a new left tackle this offseason. If they do, I believe that would arrive in the form of a draft pick. You’d be looking at LSU’s Will Campbell or perhaps Texas’ Kelvin Banks Jr. I don’t know how Ohio State’s Josh Simmons will be evaluated. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in October. I saw him at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala., and that was likely an effort to get in front of some teams and meet with them.

    “Many variables will play into this decision. How does the new coaching staff evaluate Jones? What kind of consensus do the Bears reach on the top left tackle prospects in the draft? Who will be on the board when they pick at No. 10? What pieces for the offensive line makeover will Ryan Poles be able to add first in free agency? Which other positions can be upgraded in free agency and how significant will those moves be? The first week or so of free agency likely will leave some clues as to which direction the Bears will be going in the draft, but they need to remain fluid and stay true to their board.

    “I’d point out that the Lions used first-round picks on running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Jack Campbell in 2023. I’m referencing this not because I think new Bears coach Ben Johnson had major sway in the draft room in Detroit but because — at the time — that first-round haul was roundly criticized. Gibbs wasn’t viewed as an every-down running back, and stack linebackers have been devalued over the last decade or so. The Lions went with players they felt had great value and fit their culture, and GM Brad Holmes nailed both picks. Maybe they weren’t the team’s biggest needs — although linebacker was a need at the time — but the Lions got players they can build around.

    “Poles has to come out of this draft with players he can build around, and he can’t risk forcing a pick that might not have the same ceiling or draft grade as others because the player fills a need.”

Ideally, the Bears would go with the best player available just as the Lions did. However, both you and Biggs know that this isn’t always the case realistically. It will be a balance between the best player available and need.

If I were to guess, as indicated above, I’d say that these two things marry when it comes to the defensive line prospects. Defensive line is considered to be a strength of the draft and it is certainly a need for the Bears.

  • Again from Biggs:

    “Do you think the Bears feel comfortable with Tyrique Stevenson as a starting cornerback entering next season? He and Terell Smith had some struggles last season and I wonder if they need an upgrade there. — @michael16824439”

    “If [Bears secondary coach Al] Harris can break through with Stevenson, I believe the Bears have a pretty talented player. It’s about consistency, routine and focus for Stevenson — stuff he has lacked at times. Harris had a knack for developing younger players with the Cowboys, and his arrival could be a good thing for Stevenson and Smith.

    “The Bears have clear needs this offseason and if you add cornerback to the list, pretty soon they’ll have more than they reasonably can fill in one offseason.”

Bears in mind that Stevenson and Smith were both targeted more because teams didn’t want to throw to Jaylon Johnson‘s side of the field. I think these are pretty good young players to build around and giving them more time to develop would be a pretty good idea. I don’t see major changes at cornerback this off-season.

  • More from Biggs:

    “Under the CBA, is Ben Johnson allowed to have Zoom contact with Caleb Williams like the Bears were able to some when he was a prospect? At what point in the offseason can they watch film and discuss his comfort level with certain plays? When can they actually start bonding? — @gregfeltes

    “Johnson won’t be able to begin working with Williams until April 7, the first day teams that hired new head coaches can begin their voluntary offseason programs.

    “According to Article 21, Section 2 of the collective bargaining agreement, ‘prior to the commencement of the club’s official offseason workout program, players are not permitted to participate in club-supervised workouts, club-supervised practices, group or individual meetings with coaches, group or individual film study with coaches or group or individual playbook study with coaches.’

    “So you’re looking at a little more than six weeks before Johnson and the coaching staff can begin working with players.”

Honestly, I don’t see this as a major issue.

Williams has plenty of time to work in the off-season with personal coaches who can sharpen his mechanics and his footwork. In my opinion, he needs help with that as much as anything else associated with his game.

There’s plenty of time for Johnson to sit in the film work and work with Williams later in the off-season. But I really don’t want to see Williams neglect the fundamentals because, given the lack of quarterback coaching experience on the offensive coaching staff, I don’t see him getting all the help he needs in that area after that.

One Final Thought

And one more from Biggs:

“At what point will Ryan Poles shift draft strategy from increasing the number of picks to potentially trading future picks to go ‘all in’? — @rgbears69

“I think you’re looking at this the wrong way. For starters, the first year for a new coaching staff with a roster coming off a five-win season seems like an odd time to mortgage the future for the present.

“Teams that win consistently do so largely because they have a knack for drafting and developing players on a consistent basis. Rarely do teams that make desperation moves to win the offseason reap the benefits during the season.

“One thing that really stands out about the Lions, when you look at the way GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell have built that franchise to a level it hasn’t seen in ages, is the slow and steady approach. The Lions have been very selective in free agency. They haven’t had an “all in” offseason, and look where they are.”

“The Bears don’t have a shortage of good draft capital this year. They own two second-round picks and four of the top 74 selections. Trading future draft capital to amass more premium picks seems like a poor idea considering the tax required. You won’t get a second-round pick in 2025 by trading a second-round pick in 2026.”

Once again, I could not agree with this more.

I think this fan has the wrong idea about how you build a football franchise.

The Bears do not want to go all in to win for one season. Ideally, they want to be the kind of franchise that competes to win on an annual basis year after year. Think Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers. These are franchises that, while they may not always win their division or win the Super Bowl, compete to be in the picture year after year.

The Bears need to get back to this level. They haven’t been there since the Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo days.

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Bears Hires Are Not About Caleb Williams. They Are All About Ben Johnson.

The new Bears head coach is coming along with hiring his new coaching staff. via Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune.

“Ben Johnson took a major step toward completing his coaching staff Sunday night.”

…The team is hiring Declan Doyle as offensive coordinator and Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator and is retaining special teams coordinator Richard Hightower, sources told the Tribune”.

The Bears officially announced all three hirings Tuesday.”

Doyle, 28, is believed to be the youngest offensive coordinator in the NFL. He will not call plays but is expected to manage a pivotal role as the Bears build an offense around quarterback Caleb Williams.”

I must say that this process has left me feeling concerned.

Most of the people who know me understand that my biggest problem with the previous coaching staff was the lack of quarterback coaching experience. Supporting Williams should have been the number one priority for the Bears last year. And to an extent they did that. There was plenty of talent around him. But the Bears failed to recognize that he would also need to be coached, hiring a former tight end with one year of quarterback coaching experience and allowing him to hire a quarterback coach with no years as a position coach in the NFL.

So you’d think that’s the one thing they would make sure they had with this hire, right? Then you’d apparently be wrong. Because arguably it’s worse:

Ben Johnson, head coach – 0 years as a quarterback position coach (3 years as an assistant quarterback coach)
Declan Doyle, offensive coordinator – 0 years as a quarterback coach and, indeed, only 2 years as an NFL position coach of any type
J.T. Barrett, quarterback coach – 0 years as an NFL position coach (2 years as an assistant quarterbacks coach)

So what the hell is going on?

I know what you are saying. Johnson will coach Williams. And I have little doubt that he can do that on a high level. But who is going to drill Williams on his footwork? Who is going to correct his throwing mechanics when his accuracy degrades late in the season, as it did in 2024? Johnson? Who has never actually been a quarterback coach? Who, even if he had been, has to be both the head coach and the offensive coordinator at the same time?

Why am I sitting here, pounding my head against the desk, and asking, “Who is going to coach the quarterback?” Again!

My answer is this: Ben Johnson wants this offense to be all about Ben Johnson.

Like most first-time head coaches, he’s a mixture of overconfidence and insecurity.

Johnson is positive that his way is the right way. That’s the overconfidence.

Johnson doesn’t want anyone to add creative tension by suggesting that anything be done differently. And he especially doesn’t want anyone with any kind of a strong voice getting between him and Caleb Williams. That’s the insecurity.

The modern NFL is about the quarterback. For the sake of the Bears, Johnson needed to hire someone with experience who could coach Williams. Instead, the coach who advised players to “get comfortable with being uncomfortable” is prioritizing his own comfort.

It might work out. We can hope it works out. But it’s a bad look.

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Aaron Rodgers Has Been a Long-Term Waste of Talent. And Other Points of View.

“Why do the Bears struggle to cover opposing tight ends? — @edmundjburkeiii

“The Bears are 28th in the league as opposing tight ends have averaged 61.9 yards per game against them. They’re 32nd in the league in yards per catch by tight ends at 12.6 yards, and that is largely due to the huge game George Kittle had at San Francisco when he made seven receptions for 155 yards. Evan Engram had 10 catches for 102 yards in the London game when the Bears blew out the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson had seven grabs for 114 yards in the Week 12 game at Soldier Field. Take those three games away — and I realize you cannot do that — and the Bears have been solid against opposing tight ends.”

That may be true, but I have noted a disturbing tendency among Bears opponents related to this. Opponents usually don’t throw in the direction of potential Pro Bowl corner Jaylon Johnson, and early in the season, this meant that Tyrique Stevenson was getting a lot more targets on the other side. But lately, Bears opponents aren’t targeting Stevenson but are going after the Bears safeties instead.

This is made considerably easier because the Bears play predominantly zone defense and don’t move their defensive backs around the formation a lot.

Jaquan Brisker‘s absence may have contributed to this. But the Bears are going to have to take a very good look at what they are doing at safety in the offseason. Yet another position to add to their list, albeit not at the top.

  • Biggs answers another one:

” The Kansas City O-line is not very good this year, so Andy Reid has made adjustments. Often, Patrick Mahomes takes just a couple of steps back and fires a quick slant or quick out only a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage, getting rid of the ball in a bit over 2 seconds. Why can’t the Bears and Caleb Williams do the same? — Mike B.

“The Bears have been doing a lot of that. There are quick outs designed for Keenan Allen nearly every week. DJ Moore was targeted eight times at Minnesota [a couple of weeks ago] and caught all eight throws for 46 yards. Those were quick routes where [Caleb] Williams got the ball out swiftly. I don’t think it is accurate to say the Bears have not put stuff in their offense to have Williams get the ball to his playmakers quickly. The problem is the Bears haven’t done the other stuff particularly well. They’ve struggled too often when they have been asked to pass protect for longer periods of time, and they haven’t broken enough tackles on the short throws to create more chunk plays.

Without a doubt, opponents have been more than happy to let the Beas have the short passing game and limit the run after the catch. And they’ve generally done a great job of it.

One thing I will say in defense of the question writer, the Bears almost never go to the quick slant where a receiver can catch a ball in stride for a bigger play. I don’t know if it’s fear of letting Williams throw over the middle or what, but the extent of the short passing game seems more often than not to be exactly what Biggs said it is. Quick outs to wide receivers.

  • Another one from Biggs:

“I don’t recall where you stood on this, but it seemed like most in the media felt like Ryan Poles had put together a roster good enough to compete for the playoffs. Given how the season has played out, was that just not true? Not really seeing any media saying “my bad.” — @hickeymj

“Certainly, the Bears built a roster that was positioned to be much better than the 4-10 record the team currently has. I thought the Bears would be in the mix for a playoff spot, and with seven spots, they really should have been.”

“This wasn’t a perfect roster. The Bears were not positioned to win the conference. But they’ve got a better quarterback, and things should have gone better than they have. I figured nine wins, which would have been a two-game improvement, was realistic. I thought if they got off to a good start and built some confidence, 10 wins was a possibility. Certainly a lesson for everyone in this.”

Certainly so. It’s very evident that the offensive line was worse than anyone thought.

Having said that, I heard very few media members actually account for the fact that Williams is a rookie and that there was virtually no one on the staff that had proven that they could coach quarterbacks. In that respect, this season was a problem waiting to happen.

It will be a long time before I get over the disappointment I felt in the Bears organization from top to bottom this year. With ownership being what it is and [with Bears president and CEO Kevin Warren in charge along with Poles, you have to think that the long-term prospects of this organization might be very grim.

It will certainly be a long time before Warren is gone. So unless he’s a lot better at making critical decisionsthan his history indicates(https://www.si.com/college/indiana/football/commissioner-kevin-warren-says-big-ten-football-is-still-determining-covid-19-policies), I’m starting to wonder if I will ever see the organization win anything again. They may just have to get lucky, and historically there has been little indication that’s likely to happen.

“The Bears find themselves in third, the same place the Jaguars landed in 2021 after their highly touted No. 1 pick endured a difficult debut season amid coaching changes. Like Trevor Lawrence after the 2020 season, Caleb Williams’ struggles are going to be chalked up to what was around him. The offensive line hasn’t been good enough. Wideouts Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and DJ Moore never seemed to mesh. Shane Waldron was the wrong choice as offensive coordinator, and after he was fired, coach Matt Eberflus followed shortly thereafter. Write off the entire season as a bad dream and start over in 2025.”

“The overwhelming expectation is that the Bears will hire a coach with a background in offense, with the city of Chicago ready to start a GoFundMe to bring over Johnson from the Lions. Regardless of who takes over, the new coach will have to reimagine the offense and add players accordingly. [Keenan] Allen, a free agent, is unlikely to return. [D.J.] Moore has looked uninterested all season and has a tradable contract. The only lineman who should be guaranteed a starting spot is right tackle Darnell Wright. The Bears project to have the fifth-most cap space of any team in the offseason, so they can afford to target replacements. They need to get those moves right, though.”

A couple of things here:

  1. Other than Williams, Barnwell doesn’t seem to think nearly as much of the Bears’ offensive skill position talent as most of Chicago seems to. And, though the Bears don’t seem inclined to move on, he indirectly questions whether GMRyan Poles should survive, as well.

It will be interesting to see what potential head coaching candidates think of this situation. I’m inclined to think that the fact that the Bears ownership will get out of the way, give the football people what they want (within reason), and let them do their jobs will count for a lot here. Contrast that with the Jets, who would be the worst nightmare imaginable.

The Bears’ biggest problem is that they can’t make the right decisions at the top. But no head coaching hire is going to believe that they are the wrong decision. A lot will depend on what they think of Poles and team president and CEOKevin Warren.

  1. D.J. Moore is a fascinating problem. The Bears have had a hard time getting him the ball all season and have resorted to using him in the running game to get him involved since interim head coachThomas Brown took over.

I really don’t know what this means. It could be that teams are concentrating on Moore so much as the Bears’ biggest threat that they’ve shut him down as a receiver. It could also mean that the Bears have grossly overestimated Moore’s talents. What action the team takes once a new offensive staff is hired will tell us what the situation really is.

  • Speaking of the Jets, Barnwell has them 8th behind only the New Orleans Saints, who are in cap hell for at least two years. Here’s what they said about the Jets:

“Well, you saw what happened over the past two years. A Jets team that attempted to shoot for the moon with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback landed in the darkness instead. At 4-11, they are guaranteed a worse record with Rodgers this season than they had with Zach Wilson & Co. in 2022 or 2023, a fate that even the most skeptical of Rodgers cynics wouldn’t have predicted. Though he has been better in recent weeks, it’s painful to even imagine the Jets running it back for another season with the now-41-year-old. For cultural reasons alone, it should be time to move on. Still, it’s tough to rule out anything in New York.”

Rodgers said a couple of weeks ago that he went back and looked at a film of himself when he was good, including when he was in his twenties. I, along with most Packer fans, could have told him what the problem was a long, long time ago. Instead of working within the confines of the offense and following a game plan, Rodgers tried to make a career out of bailing out and improvising. Most of that was done with the full support of a fawning media who care less about good football and more about exciting individual play (see Kyler Murray).

In any case, Rodgers, apparently as a result of his sudden introspection, has looked a lot better the last couple of weeks. He’s suddenly throwing with anticipation and getting the ball out on time.

It’s almost certainly way too little, way too late, though. If Rodgers had listened to coaches earlier, he probably would be finishing his career with multiple playoff appearances with the Packers rather than potentially doing so in disgrace with the dysfunctional Jets.

It will be interesting if he can find a landing spot next year or if he just retires.

  • Barnwell has the Dolphins second.

“I’ll start by saying I’m not sure the Dolphins should be looking to move on from Mike McDaniel, whose job could be in jeopardy if his team misses the postseason. McDaniel is 27-22 and made the playoffs in each of his first two seasons in charge; the last full-time Miami coach to finish his run with the Dolphins with a winning record was Dave Wannstedt, who left 20 years ago. This franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 2000. Moving on from McDaniel would be an aggressive decision.”

Stephen Ross can be an impulsive owner, and given past reporting and his background, he might regret not being in a position to hire Jim Harbaugh when the now-Chargers coach decided to leave Michigan a year ago. Would the Michigan booster really countenance hiring a Buckeye and go after Mike Vrabel? Firing McDaniel would only seem to make sense if Ross has a definite, landable target in mind. That coach would take over a talented roster and have a quarterback in place, but would he be facing unrealistic expectations?”

Like so many teams around the NFL, including the Bears, ownership is the biggest issue in Miami. With the second-oldest roster in the NFL, they have gone all in the last two years with some aggressive moves, but, like so many owners over the history of the NFL, Ross just hasn’t learned that you can’t buy a championship.

McDaniel isn’t the problem. What Ross needs to do is find a better general manager who can draft good, young talent and be patient. But Chris Grier is a long-time general manager and an apparent Ross favorite. If he’s dumb enough to fire McDaniel as a fall guy, he should be near the top of the Bears’ list of candidates.

  • As is my usual habit, I will not be staying up to watch the Bears play tonight. I habitually get up very early in the morning for work, and I simply can’t stay up until all hours of the night watching football, even the Bears anymore.

One thing I am enormously grateful for is that the Bears didn’t play as many night games this year. This will be only their third night game of the 2024 season. I would like to send out a personal thank you to the Chicago Bears and the NFL! Please keep it up!

  • For those of you who haven’t been to a game in a while, it’s a wonderful time to pick up tickets late in a bad season when the weather is cold. I went to last week’s game after being given tickets as a wonderful gift (hence no quick comments last week, either).

My brother and I sat in a 400-level section near midfield. The section was about 30% Lions fans, who were mostly well-behaved. Having said that, the guy directly in front of me was the single most obnoxious football fan I’ve ever encountered who wasn’t obliterated by alcohol. It was fun!

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