View of Bears First Round Pick Is, As Usual, A Matter of Perspective

 

It’s interesting the effect that a different view point can have.

I grew up in the suburbs of St. Louis. The neighborhood in St. Charles, Mo. was predominantly white and relatively prosperous. When I left to go to college to experience the world, I was a typical conservative suburbanite. I didn’t know that’s what I was. But that’s what I was. Members of my family that stayed in that environment are, too.  And they don’t know they are, either.

Forward 30 years later after spending 15 of that living in downtown Chicago and I can honestly say that I’m a much different man than I was then. If you ever wonder why big cities are more liberal than urban environments, move to one and you’ll find out. Few people can walk past multiple homeless beggars on their way to work every day and not be affected. I wouldn’t call myself a liberal. But how would I know? I just know now that I was very conservative before.

How you view the Bears first round last night is also largely a matter of perspective. Nationally the pick of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has been almost universally panned because media experts and anonymous scouts who have an interest in seeing the quarterbacks fall have almost universally disparaged the class. And the Bears actually traded up a spot to get theirs.

But in stark contrast to the national reaction, the local media were generally positive about the move.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune was (and has been) amongst the most out spoken.

“[General manager RyanPace said the strength of the draft was on defense and plenty of observers would agree. Moreover, the Bears have a host of needs on that side of the ball. But they haven’t had a greater need, period, than quarterback and that pre-dates the Phil Emery era. In fact, the Bears have mismanaged the position for far too much of the post-Sid Luckman era.

“Something had to be done and when the Browns didn’t draft Trubisky, who was raised in the Cleveland suburb of Mentor, with the No. 1 pick, Pace paid big-time to acquire the No. 2 pick from the 49ers. The Bears forked over the No. 3 pick, their third-round pick (No. 67 overall), fourth-round pick (No. 111) and a third-rounder in 2018. The exchange was a steep price, equivalent to a second-round pick according to a source with another team, but when you’re seeking a franchise quarterback, you have to be bold and the Bears have spent far too much time being meek.”

 

Rick Morrissey at the Chicago Sun-Times, usually ready to fire at the Bears at the drop of the hat, was fine with this (albeit with a parting shot):

“A tip of the cap to general manager Ryan Pace for having the courage to make a choice that is very much a roll of the dice. I have no idea whether Trubisky will be a good NFL quarterback. But I like the idea of the Bears throwing caution to the wind and going for it. They haven’t had an excellent quarterback since Jim McMahon, and I think it has slowly dawned on them that they can’t win a Super Bowl without one. And when I say slowly, I mean slooooooooowly.”

Even David Haugh at the Tribune, who I rarely completely agree with, nailed this one perfectly in my mind:

“It’s about time.

“The Bears could have stayed in the third spot and taken a defensive player to suit coach John Fox, or maybe even Trubisky if he was still on the board. They could have gone by the book like NFL executives typically do and the way Pace fooled everyone into believing he would.

“But going all-in to draft a Trubisky for all the Grabowskis in Chicago, Pace opted for bold over blase.”

People who actually follow the Bears are bound to have a different perspective on this once they settle down and ponder it this morning. It’s really easy if you are covering or following a NFL team that has a good quarterback to trash this pick. But try doing that if you are following a team that hasn’t had a quarterback in 30 years (or more) and who hasn’t even tried to draft anyone to solve the problem in 13 years.

Do that year after year after year and watch what happens to your attitude. It certainly has had an effect on me. And I’m not alone.

In contrast to media reports, NFL teams actually valued this quarterback class a great deal. We know that because, depite deceptive anonymous quotes, their actions spoke louder than their words. General manager Ryan Pace stated that they knew that the 49ers were receiving offers to move up for a quarterback because they were receiving offers from the same teams. And the 49ers confirmed that they had two offers on the table.

That’s not all. Immediately after the Bears took Trubisky, the Browns reportedly tried to engineer a trade for Kirk Cousins, something that could have been done well before the draft but was likely attempted only after the guy they, themselves, planned to trade up to get disappeared. It’s worth noting that the Chiefs also traded up to get ahead of the Browns and the Saints to keep them from taking Pat Mahomes. Houston traded up a long way to get Deshaun Watson at 12 overall. And many, many other teams worked these players out privately before the draft despite the class’s supposed lack of quality.

Needless to say that, when you aren’t just a media pundit and your job is actually on the line when your team doesn’t win, it obviously affects how you see things. These people thought a lot more highly of these players than reports indicated.

The Bears had to make this move. They had a guy they liked, they aren’t planning to be drafting this high again, and they don’t have a developing quarterback, a position that Pace has stated repeatedly that he’d like to draft every year.

For the record, I’m warming to the pick and to Trubisky. He is, after all, the only one of the top quarterbacks who has been characterized as accurate, something that arguably can’t be taught. Indeed, the only major criticism that’s usually leveled is that he was a one year starter. Well, so was Marshawn Lattimore. So was Ryan Ramczyk. So were quite a few of the top prospects in this draft. You do your due diligence, evaluate and project based upon what you have. That’s all their is to it.

I didn’t like the price but 2 third round picks and a fourth round pick isn’t exactly giving up the farm. And if he’s the guy you like, there’s no price too high for a potential franchise quarterback.

At least not if you have been exposed to the Chicago Bears for any length of time.

 

Bears Mismanagement of the Quarterback Position Very Likely to Continue Tonight and Tomorrow

 

Brad Bigs at the Chicago Tribune addresses the possibility that there will be a quarterback available for the Bears in round 2:

“I can tell you this: There are plenty of scouts who don’t believe the quarterbacks will free-fall. The need is simply too great, and you can’t argue the Bears’ need. I wrote Tuesday that the Bears’ need for a quarterback is too great for them to ignore at No. 3, and I believe that. That doesn’t mean they see it the same way.”

Many of us really think the Bears have to take a quarterback this draft as Biggs does. But it is looking increasingly like they aren’t going to do it at three overall. Pace’s stubborn insistence on undervaluing the position means that he’ll wait until the second round to see which quarterback falls. That’s where the Bears have put in the most work with the prospects.

According to Biggs the Bears have invited Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson in for no pre-draft visits or private workouts. On the other hand, the two qurterbacks mostly likely to go some time after the top two have gotten a great deal of attention.

Pace, coach John Fox, offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains and player personnel director Josh Lucas all went to Lubbock to work out Mahomes. Mahomes also made a pre-draft visit to Halas Hall.

Deshone Kizer has had two pre-draft visits to Halas Hall, including the local day workout.

Bears fans had better prepare themselves for some major disappointment. If the Bears don’t take a quarterback at three overall, it looks very likely to me that none of these four quarterbacks are going to be available to them in round two. And that likely they won’t be doing it at all. And that, despite all of our hopes that it would be otherwise, means that Pace will be no better than his predecessors as he serially mismanages the position for the Bears.

 

Bears Must Draft a Quarterback at Three Overall

 

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune gives 13 reasons why the Bears will want to draft a quarterback in the first round:

If not now, when?

The time to invest a first-round draft pick in a quarterback appears to have come for the Bears, who have not selected a passer in Round 1 since Rex Grossman in 2003. The Bears dealt two first-round picks to the Broncos in the 2009 Jay Cutler deal, a trade that proved to be too good to be true because teams don’t deal away franchise quarterbacks.

It took the Bears longer than most to realize Cutler wasn’t that player, and now here they are with the No. 3 pick Thursday night, staring down the opportunity to solve their never-ending issue — if they can pick the right quarterback.

I couldn’t agree more.

The Bears aren’t currently developing a quarterback. They have failed to even attempt to draft one for years now. That must end here. Quarterback is the only position that you absolutely cannot do without to achieve consistent success. That has now been proven over and over again.

You have to take your swings at the position and you have to take guys who have a shot at actually being good. That means early in the draft and, this year, that means the first round. How do I know that?

A couple weeks ago I participated in a mock draft.   Representatives for each team drafted who they wanted in the proper order and trades were allowed. They were, of course, extremely knowledgable about their teams current situation and thinking.

My plan going in was probably what many of you are thinking. Assuming I couldn’t trade down (I tried), I would take the best defensive player available, then take the best quarterback available in the second round or trade up into the tail end of the first round to get the third or fourth best available (likely Patrick Mahomes or Deshone Kizer). So I took defensive end Soloman Thomas and felt pretty good about it.

And then I watched as my world slowly fell apart. It started at the 7th pick where Cleveland traded up to take Mahomes. Crazy, right? Could have maybe even waited for the second to get that guy, right?

Wrong.

The quarterbacks few off the board like pigeons getting out of the way of a speeding car. Arizona took Deshaun Watson at 13. Carson Palmer is aging but you probably figured that they’d wait and take a long-term project later. And you would have been wrong. Same with Kansas City, who traded up to 22 to get Mitchell Trubisky. Then Houston took Deshone Kizer at 25 and you were left with… who?

At that point there was one quarterback left that I thought might – maybe – turn into a good starter, Davis Webb. And I had both New Orleans at 32 and SanFransisco at 34 drafting ahead of me. There was no way I could possible wait and take the chance that I’d be drafting a Nate Peterman at the top of the second round. So I had to trade a fourth round pick to move up from 36 to 30 to get what amounted ot the dregs of the starting quarterback class.

I hear over and over again that you don’t “reach” for a quarterback. But if the rest of the league values the position more than you do, as was definitely the case with me in this mock draft, are you reaching or are you undervaluing the prospects and their potential impact?

The draft is always a crap shoot. It’s even more of one when it comes to quarterbacks. That’s the way it is. There’s a rookie cap so it isn’t like you set your franchise back 5 years by missing on a one in the first round anymore. You take your swings until you find one. If that means taking one that you like best at 3 overall, so be it. And that certainly looks like that’s the case this year.

 

Message from NFL Personnel Men: Stay Away From Deshone Kizer

 

One of the most enjoyable aspects of draft season for me is reading the anonymous quotes from NFL personnel scouts and executives that Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Bob McGinn collects. There are always a few surprises here.

Probably the most interesting article of the series this year was the one that McGinn did on Deshone Kizer. Like many athletes are big football schools, quarterbacks are apparently worshiped on the Notre Dame campus and it evidently affected Kizer because McGinn’s scouts absolutely eviscerated him.

“You look at that team, they’ve got players,” an AFC personnel man said. “There’s no way they should win just four games. It was because of this guy, the quarterback. Boy, at times he looked bad. He was so bad against Stanford in the first half that they benched him.”

“You look at that team, they’ve got players,” an AFC personnel man said. “There’s no way they should win just four games. It was because of this guy, the quarterback. Boy, at times he looked bad. He was so bad against Stanford in the first half that they benched him.”

An NFC personnel man described Kizer as a selfish player worried mostly about status and money.

“That’s what drives him,” said the executive. “It’s all about him. Prima donna. Thin-skinned.”

We all know its lying season in the NFL and its possible these three men are all hoping that Kizer will fall. But his own actions lately have seemingly backed this evaluation up.

On April 20, Kizer was quoted as comparing himself to Tom Brady and Cam Newton.

“Name a college quarterback who goes into the game-plan meetings on Monday and throws his notes at the coaches,” Kizer said. “No one else game plans the way I do. No one else prepares the way I do. No one else knows football the way I do. No one else is as big as I am. No one else is as powerful a runner as I am. Pat Mahomes might throw the ball 80 yards and I can only throw the ball 72, but I guarantee he can’t throw an out route the way I can. No one else can do what I can do. And I’ve truly figured out in this process, if I can maximize all my potential in every aspect of the game – this is bold – I do have the ability to be the greatest quarterback to ever play. Imagine taking Brady’s intellect and Brady’s preparation and putting it on a guy with Cam Newton’s body. Why can’t I be the greatest? The only thing stopping me from it is me. That’s what’s driving me now.”

OK, the guy is confident. Not very unusual if you are a quarterback. Probably a lot of them think it even if they don’t say it.

But Kizer, apparently realizing how arrogant he sounded, decided to claim that his comments were taken out of context the very next day.

Not even drafted yet and he’s already blaming the media? Apparently upon thinking about it, Kizer thought so, too. Because the NEXT day, he decided to effectively retract his claim and own up to the quote.

The point? Kizer’s first instinct was to blame someone else after his misstep. He then decided that those optics weren’t too good either and that he’d better say what he had to to protect his brand.

Sounds pretty much exactly like the kind of guy the anonymous evaluators were describing. Even his college head coach said that he needs more time to grow not only on but off the field.

As Miami fans know well a la Dion Jordan, most NFL draft picks don’t fail due to lack of talent. They fail because they don’t have the attitude it takes to succeed. And Kizer sounds to me like he’s got a great deal of Ryan Leaf in him.

Bottom line, heaven help the team that spends a high draft pick to draft Kizer.

 

John Fox Is Going Nowhere without Ryan Pace

Dan Durkin at The Athletic answers your questions:

“If Myles Garrett and Solomon Thomas go first and second respectively, you’ll learn a lot about who is in charge and where the franchise thinks it is. This scenario gives Pace the option of taking the top quarterback in the class, or the top defensive back in a very deep and talented class. If a quarterback is taken, it’s clearly [general manager Ryan] Pace’s team and timeline. If a defensive player is selected, [head coach John] Fox’s preservation plan is still alive and well.

“All moves point to this team being in the middle of a long rebuild. But Fox seems to be under more pressure to win. Pace inherited an aging roster from Phil Emery, who was simply not good at picking players. Truth hurts. Thus, Pace has more time to build this roster.”

I have to disagree with this completely. I’ve seen no indication whatsoever that Pace and Fox aren’t joined at the hip.

Yes, the Bears are, indeed, in the middle of a long rebuild. But I fail to see how ownership can cut Pace slack on what is a much poorer roster talent-wise than it was when he took over while not giving Fox more time to win with the same roster.

The strong suspicion here is that the team needs to show improvement next year but not as much as some people seem to think. If things still appear to be headed in the right direction, even if it’s slowly, George McCaskey will likely continue to be patient with both Pace and Fox.

And the guess here is that the Bears definitely will show improvement. Three wins is a low bar to exceed and the truth is that a Bears team with even average health beats that by a win or two with no off-season improvements at all. If the Bears win 5 to 6 games, both men are probably safe.

Loggains the Best Indicator that the Bears Did the Right Thing With Hoyer

As John Mullin at CSNChicago.com mulled over the appearance of stability within the Bears organization the other day, he offhandedly threw out this little nugget:

“[W]hen the Bears didn’t re-sign Brian Hoyer this offseason, which may not have appeared to be benchmark non-move but was, at least one Bears coach was apoplectic at not staying a course with a quarterback who delivered 300 passing yards and zero turnovers in his brief Bears ‘career.’”

Given their past history together with the Cleveland Browns, the bet here is that the coach in question was Dowell Loggains.  And, because of that, if anything I applaud this non-move.

First of all, Hoyer would have been a place holder for a draft pick.  True, Mike Glennon might turn out to be the same but that’s the worst case scenario for him.  He’s got enough upside to ultimately turn out to be the guy.  Because of that, he represents both the placeholder that Hoyer was and a swing at the position, which Hoyer wasn’t.

But the fact that Loggains was against this non-move makes me all the more happy with it because, let’s never forget, Loggains was the one pounding the table for Johnny Manziel with the Browns, ultimately getting that entire coaching staff fired in the process.

If Dowell Loggains was for it, you can bet that the right thing to do was the opposite.

Progress or Mirage? It’s All Part of the Plan.

Some thoughts on The Athletic’s Dan Durkinsevisceration of owner George McCaskey’s comments at the owners meetings in Arizona:

“‘We want to continue to see the progress that we’ve seen so far,’ McCaskey said.

“Hearing these quotes in the middle of the desert at the NFL owners meetings seemed very fitting. The image the Bears have of themselves is a mirage. Fans thirsting for a winner are instead left out to dry, dealing with the reality of a bottomed-out franchise, savoring their last precious drops of water — nine to be exact, if we’re measuring what separates teams in the league: wins.”

“As a daily observer and analyst of this team, I’m struggling to see said progress. The Bears are selling history in the present. That’s just the fact of the matter. Legacies and stories about the days of old are about the only positive things fans can cling to at this point. Reality is just too hard to bear.”

I certainly understand where Durkin is coming from here.  Fans and media who measure progress in terms of wins from year to year are obviously going to think that such comments are down right foolish.  After all, how else is “progress” measured except as wins?

But neither McCaskey nor Bears fans can afford to think that way.  At least not too much.  Quick turn arounds are, indeed, possible in the NFL but they are just as often followed by quick declines.  What the Bears are aiming for and, indeed, what most teams in their position are aiming for, is long-term success.

In 2013 the Bears barely missed the playoffs and guys like Durkin called that visible progress.  But it was that progress that was the mirage as the Bears totally fell apart as a team in 2014, largely due to bad chemistry.  That chemistry was reportedly cause by the influence of veteran player like Brandon MarshallMartellus Bennett and, at least according to some, Jay Cutler.  The Bears have spent the last two years completely dismantling that team, a process that was only complete this offseason with the release of Cutler.  And that’s the reason why the Bears are in the position that they are in today.

Progress can, indeed, be an illusion, and fans can hardly be blamed for being skeptical.  But we’re probably really only now seeing the current Bears leadership implement the vision they had when they came in.

I truly believe that General Manager Ryan Pace loves new quarterback Mike Glennon despite the statistical evidence that indicates that he’s been mediocre to this point.  The signing of Glennon has led to the Bears being a laughing stock amongst media league-wide.  Despite that, Pace is betting heavily that he’s the answer.   Whether he is or not will be a large factor in determining whether the Bears are finally headed in the direction that McCaskey believes they are.  At least that’s the plan.

But perhaps more important are  the players the Bears have concentrated on in free agency.  Yes, those guys have limited talent and that probably is one of the things that makes Durkin and many Bears fans think that the team is spinning its wheels.  But, according to the plan, those guys are being counted on more to show the younger guys how to do it right and build a winning attitude.
For example, when Pace addressed the signing of back up quarterback Mark Sanchez, he didn’t even bother to try too hard to convince anyone that he thought the players was actually any good.
““I like him in this role for a lot of reasons, and one of them is the experience that he has. He’s been through the highs and lows of our league. He has played in some big markets. He has dealt with challenges. He has dealt with success,’ Pace said of Sanchez.  “I think he’s the kind of player that exudes confidence. I like that about him. He’s knowledgeable. He’s smart, and him and Mike have already kind of clicked. They’re together and they’re organizing workouts on their own, and those kinds of things are important.’”

And it’s that last point that is obviously the most important.  Sanchez is there to help Glennon.  That’s why almost all of the veteran signings are there, to help the younger players.  That’s why they’re short term contracts.  They’ll be replaced ASAP with more talent through the draft and that’s where the Bears plan to get it.  That’s how they will establish a foundation for long-term success.

Whether they can sustain success that way under the current regime is certainly a legitimate quesiton.  The 2016 draft class looks to have been a very successful one in that respect.  Cody Whitehair is already one of the top handful of centers in the NFL.  Jordan Howard is already amongst the elite running backs in the league.  Leonard Floyd showed promise in an injury marred season.  Nick Kwiatkowski also looks to have starter potential.  However, while the bears should be very happy with the 2016 rookie class, it it needs to be pointed out that the Bears’ 2015 draft class – Kevin White, Eddie Goldman, Hroniss Grasu, Jeremy Langford, Adrian Amos and Tayo Fabuluje – didn’t look anywhere near as good in their second year.

In any case, it has to be recognized that the veteran free agents are just there right now to establish the right culture – something that was lacking in the mirage of 2013 and led to the disaster that followed.

 I think George McCaskey probably has the right attitude.  As long as things look like they’re moving in the right direction, he’ll be OK with it.  That should show up in the form of more wins than 3.  But I don’t think there’s a target as long as they see progress towards a long-term goal.  And everything I see happening right now is geared towards that long-term plan even if it’s very tough to see sometimes.
We’re all going to have to be very, very patient, I think.  This thing is going to be, at best, pretty mediocre for at least a couple more years and during that time, we’re going to hear from media and fans like Durkin a lot.  Despite that, hopefully it will result in something special at the end.  The only way fans are going to be able to sustain that hope through the tough times ahead is going to be to see the Bears actions in the proper perspective.

Adrian Peterson Remains Unsigned But It’s Not All About the Money

Jeremy Fowler at ESPN  makes claims that former Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is demanding too much money.

Adrian Peterson might have priced himself out of signing with a team early in free agency.”

“One source from a team in the market for a running back believes Peterson wanted more than $8 million in the first year of a contract. Despite his reputation as one of the best playmakers of the modern era, that is a steep request for the current veteran tailback climate.”

It seems that few people in Minnesota are surprised.  Rana Cash at the Minneapolis Star-Tribune seems to be typical:

“The consensus all along has been that it would come down to money for Peterson. Of course he says it is more to it than that, but from a general manager’s perspective, that’s what it is all about.”

Indeed, Peterson does dispute this.  And, I for one, believe him.

I’ve little doubt that Fowler’s sources told him the truth about Peterson’s demands.  In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that isn’t what he told the Vikings at the beginning of free agency   But to suggest that’s the whole story is monolithic, as Bears fans should know more than anyone.  After all, Alshon Jeffery took less money on a one year deal just so he could get out of Chicago.  I’ve little doubt that the Peterson situation is similar.

Numerous reports indicated that Peterson wasn’t particularly happy in Minnesota, especially during the time when he was accused of  reckless or negligent injury to a child when he didn’t feel like he got enough support from the Vikings.  His price to go to another team that he felt was a good fit is undoubtedly another thing altogether.  For instance, the guess here is that Peterson could be had for a song in his hometown of Dallas, where he has reportedly always wanted to  play.

Don’t be surprised if Peterson finds a good, competitive team that wants him after the draft, when such teams often find that the selection process didn’t fall their way and that they didn’t get one on the players they were looking for.  And don’t be surprised if its for a lot less than he demanded to stay with the Vikings.

 

Jimmy Garoppolo Won’t Be Moved. Maybe.

Albert Breer at the MMQB.com makes two points in his First and Ten section:

5. I’d expect the Browns to make a real run at Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo. I also know other teams have come away with the impression he’s not being moved.

6. One sign Garoppolo won’t be moved? There are coaches and front-office staff in Chicago who love Garoppolo. And the Bears moved on and signed Mike Glennon.

This is kind of true and kind of not.  Both Chicago and San Fransisco had to look at the realities of the Garoppolo situation.

New England didn’t want to move him.  I don’t doubt that’s true and that was a factor.  Having a good back up quarterback in the NFL isn’t an option.  It’s a must and for obvious reasons.    So Bill Belichick ends up asking himself one relevant question:  “How much is risking another Super Bowl run worth?”  Answer:  “Priceless”.

It’s entirely possible that the Browns won’t take “No” for an answer here where the Bears had to – the Browns could out bid them easily with an unprecedented collection of draft picks in the first three rounds of the next two drafts to offer.

Could the Patriots be bowled over with an offer for Garoppolo that’s so rich that they would actually risk having to play Jacoby Brissett as their back up in the middle of a Super Bowl window?  Well, it depends on how they feel about Brissett.  That was always going to be the primary factor determining Garoppolo’s status.  The question was never, “How good is Garoppolo?”  It was “How good is Brissett?”

In any case, they are almost certainly going to have to be overwhelmed with an offer and the Bears were in no position to respond competitively.

It’s not New England’s stated refusal to trade Garroppolo that caused the Bears to give up the ghost.  Garoppolo was a non-starter the minute they knew the Browns were seriously interested.  That’s why they moved on to Glennon.

As The League and Free Agency Moves On, the Bears Have Yet to Address Their Most Underrated Need

NFL Network reporter Tiffany Blackmon says that former Kansas City defensive tackle Dontari Poe will be visiting  with the Jaguars along with former Raider Latavius Murray:

The Jaguars are going all out to win in March while continuing to lose during the season.  They have also spent lavishly to sign cornerback A.J. Bouye and defensive lineman Calais Campbell.

Last year they out bid the world to sign the top defensive lineman on the market, Malik Jackson.  They finished last in the AFC South at 3-13.

The report reminded me that the Bears haven’t yet addressed a very under rated need this offseason.  Whenever nose tackle Eddie Goldman was lost to injury, the Bears were lost for a replacement.  Will Sutton did his best to hold down the fort but he’s a weakness in the middle that could be, and was, exploited.

Poe, of course, was never going to sign with the Bears.  He’ll be far too expensive to sign and put in as a rotational player.  But there’s little doubt that the Bears could use some depth in the middle of their defensive line and a decent player should be available for the signing as the league enters the latter part of free agency.