Day: May 4, 2014

Mock Draft Round 2: If Only the Bears Needed Offense…

…but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts wouldn’t it be a Merry Christmas.

As previously mentioned, I’m participating in a mock draft with 32 other knowledgable fans.  In the first round I took a very talented but less than ideal inside linebacker and middle linebacker of the future C. J. Mosley.  I was hoping to do better in round 2.

Here’s how the first 2 rounds shaped up before the Bears second round pick:

FISRT ROUND

Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney, OLB/DE, South Carolina
St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
Jacksonville Jaguars Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Cleveland Browns Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Oakland Raiders Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
Atlanta Falcons Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Minnesota Vikings Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Bills Eric Ebron, TE, UNC
Detroit Lions Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
***TRADE*** St. Louis Rams (from Tennessee Titans) Hasean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
New York Giants Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
***TRADE*** Tennessee Titans (from St. Louis Rams) Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
Chicago Bears C. J. Mosley, LB, Alabama
Pittsburgh Steelers Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia
***TRADE*** Arizona Cardinals (from Dallas Cowboys) Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
Baltimore Ravens Zack Martin, OL, Notre Dame
New York Jets Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
Miami Dolphins Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
***TRADE*** Dallas Cowboys (from Arizona Cardinals) Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
Green Bay Packers Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
Philadelphia Eagles Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
***TRADE*** Cleveland Browns (from Kansas City Chiefs) Marqise Lee, WR, USC
Cincinnati Bengals Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
San Diego Chargers Louis Nix III, NT, Notre Dame
Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis Colts) Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
***TRADE*** Kansas City Chiefs (from New Orleans Saints) Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU
Carolina Panthers Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama
New England Patriots Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
San Francisco 49ers Kyle Fuller, CB Virginia Tech
Denver Broncos Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
Seattle Seahawks Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

SECOND ROUND

Houston Texans Derek Carr, QB, Fresno St.
Washington Redskins Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford
***TRADE*** New Orleans Saints (from KC via Cleveland) Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU
Oakland Raiders Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
Atlanta Falcons Jeremiah Attaochu, DE, Georgia Tech
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
Jacksonville Jaguars Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG, UCLA
Minnesota Vikings Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
Buffalo Bills Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada
Tennessee Titans Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin
New York Giants David Yankey, OG, Stanford
St. Louis Rams Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Detroit Lions Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State
Pittsburgh Steelers Allen Robinson, WR, Penn Stete
Dallas Cowboys Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana
Baltimore Ravens Troy Niklas, TE, Notre Dame
New York Jets Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
Miami Dolphins Gabe Jackson, G, Mississippi State

Top players left on my board were:

Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State
Corey Latimer, WR, Indiana
Cyrus Kouandjio, OT , Alabama
Deone Bucannon, S, Washington State
Stan Jean-Baptiste, CB , Nebraska

Taking any of the first three was never a serious consideration.  I only include them in the list because it demonstrates something I noticed through out this entire process.  The offensive talent is unbelievable in this draft.  I could have had my pick of any one of multiple players at any point from the first round on that would help a lot of teams.

Unfortunately the Bears need help on defense and that is, of course, where I went with this pick.  At this point the Bears still needed a safety and a defensive tackle badly.  Not taking one of those here would mean that it would be unlikely that I’d come away with a starter at either or both of those positions and the draft would have been an abject failure.  Furthermore, if I passed on Bucannon, I wasn’t going to see another safety that looked like he was even close to a starter. In my opinion it was basically Bucannon or nobody and I “ran to the podium” to take him.  He was a good value here.

Having said that, he, also, is not ideal.  I had recently acquired safety Ryan Mundy penciled in as the starter at strong safety before this but he’d almost certainly move to free safety, a position which he’s played extensively in the past, with this pick. Bucannon would start with a floor as a good strong safety but the hope is that many of the scouts are wrong and that he can be as interchangeable as Mundy is. As I understand it from Bears general manager Phil Emery, versatility is the name of the game in the new Bears defense. This guy won’t be a bust but he’s only going to fit in with that philosophy if he shows he can cover receivers. Time will tell.

It’s a shame I couldn’t take an offensive player this high. I could think about it next round but defensive tackle is still a serious need.  And suicides are supposed to be more common at Christmas anyway.

Inside the Head of Michael Vick Is a Scary Place

Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com on Jets quarterback Michael Vick‘s apparent concession of the starting job to Geno Smith:

“Maybe Vick, who has had a hard time making up his mind about which jersey number to wear, will change his mind once or twice, or more often, as offseason workouts unfold and as training camp approaches. Or maybe Vick has been around Smith long enough to realize that the best way to win the job is to make Smith believe he’s already won it.”

Playing GM Isn’t As Easy As It Looks on TV

English prime minister Benjamin Disraeli once said, “How much easier it is to be critical than to be correct.” The man wasn’t joking.

I’ve been participating in a 4 round mock draft with a group of fans associated with ESPN’s Football Today podcast. The results have provided a great deal of insight which I thought would be interesting to share.

First a little about the draft and the fans participating. There are 32 representatives, one from every team. Most of them (including me) were required to write an essay on the state of their team and then you had to be chosen based upon what you wrote to get the job. I was initially the runner up but it was essentially a tie and the original Bears representative bailed out so I was happy to step in. Given that history, you can see that most of these fans know what they’re doing. In line with that, for the most part the picks have been solid and well reasoned.

Here were the picks in the first round when the Bears’ turn came up:

Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney, OLB/DE, South Carolina
St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
Jacksonville Jaguars Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Cleveland Browns Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Oakland Raiders Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
Atlanta Falcons Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Minnesota Vikings Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Bills Eric Ebron, TE, UNC
Detroit Lions Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
***TRADE*** St. Louis Rams (from Tennessee Titans) Hasean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
New York Giants Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
***TRADE*** Tennessee Titans (from St. Louis Rams) Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

This left me with a serious dilemma. The Bears primary needs were at safety and defensive tackle and as the Bears general manager if I didn’t take one of those, there were going to be howls for my head going up all over Chicago. And, indeed, had Ha Ha Clinton-Dix been there, I might well have taken him. But Clinton-Dix wasn’t there.

Just a quick side note. Most mock drafters have the Bears taking Aaron Donald here. As you can see, Bears general manager Phil Emery was right when he said last week that we “shouldn’t count” on Donald being there. He wasn’t.

To be bluntly honest, I’m not too sure Donald is the right pick for the Bears anyway. It’s true he’s going to be a very good 3 technique tackle. But he’s undersized, making him a one trick pony. Most people assume the Bears are still going to be running the same defense they ran last year when they recommend Donald. But I’m not too sure Emery wouldn’t prefer a tackle with more size, making him more versatile along the front.

Anyway, my board at this point stacked up this way:

C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
Darqueze Dennard, CB,Michigan State
Calvin Pryor,S, Louisville
Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State

Most people at this point would have taken Pryor just as Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune did this morning. In fact, Biggs and I mildly disagree because he took Pryor over Clinton-Dix. I had two problems with taking Pryor:

1. I really thought he should go somewhere closer to 20, not 14, and I thought he was a little bit of a reach at this spot
2. C.J Mosely was rated far higher than anyone else I had left to me. Mosely is easily a top 10 talent. No one else was close to that.

Had Mosely been a wide receiver, I would have passed without a second thought. But the Bears have a sneaky need at linebacker. Their current starters are Lance Briggs (33), whose contract expires at the end of next year, D.J. Williams, who is 31 but coming off of an injury and on a 1-year contract, and Shea McClellin, who is converting from defensive end. Jon Bostic, last year’s second rounder, is likely to compete with McClellin and it looks like his future might be at weak side linebacker as Briggs’ eventual replacement.

C.J. Mosley was at the top of my board and in my opinion he was a decidedly better player than my other options. He’s an ideal middle linebacker of the future and I saw no reason why he couldn’t eventually find his way into the starting line up over Williams. So I grabbed him.

Looking back on it, I made more than one mistake here. The Bears really needed a defensive tackle and I have a fondness for Hageman. Trading back was what I really needed to do but I assumed (and it was true) that everyone would be wanting to trade back. Therefore I knew it was unlikely that I would have a trading partner.

But the Packer’s rep contacted me after the pick and said he was hoping that Mosely would continue to fall to him, something I should have known. If I had it to to over again, I would have told him I was taking Mosely if he didn’t trade up with me. Then I might have had the 21st pick, a good spot to take Pryor if he fell (unlikely) or Hageman, who is the player I really wanted.  Worst case scenario you take one of the cornerbacks.  There’s no way a good player of some type who filled a need wouldn’t have fallen to me at that spot.

Hindsight is 20-20 and fortunately I have the benefit of it. Phil Emery won’t. I’ve been pretty critical of Emery’s draft picks in the past, especially McClellin two years ago. You can bet I’ll be a lot more sympathetic this year.