Aaron Rodgers Has Been a Long-Term Waste of Talent. And Other Points of View.

“Why do the Bears struggle to cover opposing tight ends? — @edmundjburkeiii

“The Bears are 28th in the league as opposing tight ends have averaged 61.9 yards per game against them. They’re 32nd in the league in yards per catch by tight ends at 12.6 yards, and that is largely due to the huge game George Kittle had at San Francisco when he made seven receptions for 155 yards. Evan Engram had 10 catches for 102 yards in the London game when the Bears blew out the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson had seven grabs for 114 yards in the Week 12 game at Soldier Field. Take those three games away — and I realize you cannot do that — and the Bears have been solid against opposing tight ends.”

That may be true, but I have noted a disturbing tendency among Bears opponents related to this. Opponents usually don’t throw in the direction of potential Pro Bowl corner Jaylon Johnson, and early in the season, this meant that Tyrique Stevenson was getting a lot more targets on the other side. But lately, Bears opponents aren’t targeting Stevenson but are going after the Bears safeties instead.

This is made considerably easier because the Bears play predominantly zone defense and don’t move their defensive backs around the formation a lot.

Jaquan Brisker‘s absence may have contributed to this. But the Bears are going to have to take a very good look at what they are doing at safety in the offseason. Yet another position to add to their list, albeit not at the top.

  • Biggs answers another one:

” The Kansas City O-line is not very good this year, so Andy Reid has made adjustments. Often, Patrick Mahomes takes just a couple of steps back and fires a quick slant or quick out only a few yards beyond the line of scrimmage, getting rid of the ball in a bit over 2 seconds. Why can’t the Bears and Caleb Williams do the same? — Mike B.

“The Bears have been doing a lot of that. There are quick outs designed for Keenan Allen nearly every week. DJ Moore was targeted eight times at Minnesota [a couple of weeks ago] and caught all eight throws for 46 yards. Those were quick routes where [Caleb] Williams got the ball out swiftly. I don’t think it is accurate to say the Bears have not put stuff in their offense to have Williams get the ball to his playmakers quickly. The problem is the Bears haven’t done the other stuff particularly well. They’ve struggled too often when they have been asked to pass protect for longer periods of time, and they haven’t broken enough tackles on the short throws to create more chunk plays.

Without a doubt, opponents have been more than happy to let the Beas have the short passing game and limit the run after the catch. And they’ve generally done a great job of it.

One thing I will say in defense of the question writer, the Bears almost never go to the quick slant where a receiver can catch a ball in stride for a bigger play. I don’t know if it’s fear of letting Williams throw over the middle or what, but the extent of the short passing game seems more often than not to be exactly what Biggs said it is. Quick outs to wide receivers.

  • Another one from Biggs:

“I don’t recall where you stood on this, but it seemed like most in the media felt like Ryan Poles had put together a roster good enough to compete for the playoffs. Given how the season has played out, was that just not true? Not really seeing any media saying “my bad.” — @hickeymj

“Certainly, the Bears built a roster that was positioned to be much better than the 4-10 record the team currently has. I thought the Bears would be in the mix for a playoff spot, and with seven spots, they really should have been.”

“This wasn’t a perfect roster. The Bears were not positioned to win the conference. But they’ve got a better quarterback, and things should have gone better than they have. I figured nine wins, which would have been a two-game improvement, was realistic. I thought if they got off to a good start and built some confidence, 10 wins was a possibility. Certainly a lesson for everyone in this.”

Certainly so. It’s very evident that the offensive line was worse than anyone thought.

Having said that, I heard very few media members actually account for the fact that Williams is a rookie and that there was virtually no one on the staff that had proven that they could coach quarterbacks. In that respect, this season was a problem waiting to happen.

It will be a long time before I get over the disappointment I felt in the Bears organization from top to bottom this year. With ownership being what it is and [with Bears president and CEO Kevin Warren in charge along with Poles, you have to think that the long-term prospects of this organization might be very grim.

It will certainly be a long time before Warren is gone. So unless he’s a lot better at making critical decisionsthan his history indicates(https://www.si.com/college/indiana/football/commissioner-kevin-warren-says-big-ten-football-is-still-determining-covid-19-policies), I’m starting to wonder if I will ever see the organization win anything again. They may just have to get lucky, and historically there has been little indication that’s likely to happen.

“The Bears find themselves in third, the same place the Jaguars landed in 2021 after their highly touted No. 1 pick endured a difficult debut season amid coaching changes. Like Trevor Lawrence after the 2020 season, Caleb Williams’ struggles are going to be chalked up to what was around him. The offensive line hasn’t been good enough. Wideouts Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and DJ Moore never seemed to mesh. Shane Waldron was the wrong choice as offensive coordinator, and after he was fired, coach Matt Eberflus followed shortly thereafter. Write off the entire season as a bad dream and start over in 2025.”

“The overwhelming expectation is that the Bears will hire a coach with a background in offense, with the city of Chicago ready to start a GoFundMe to bring over Johnson from the Lions. Regardless of who takes over, the new coach will have to reimagine the offense and add players accordingly. [Keenan] Allen, a free agent, is unlikely to return. [D.J.] Moore has looked uninterested all season and has a tradable contract. The only lineman who should be guaranteed a starting spot is right tackle Darnell Wright. The Bears project to have the fifth-most cap space of any team in the offseason, so they can afford to target replacements. They need to get those moves right, though.”

A couple of things here:

  1. Other than Williams, Barnwell doesn’t seem to think nearly as much of the Bears’ offensive skill position talent as most of Chicago seems to. And, though the Bears don’t seem inclined to move on, he indirectly questions whether GMRyan Poles should survive, as well.

It will be interesting to see what potential head coaching candidates think of this situation. I’m inclined to think that the fact that the Bears ownership will get out of the way, give the football people what they want (within reason), and let them do their jobs will count for a lot here. Contrast that with the Jets, who would be the worst nightmare imaginable.

The Bears’ biggest problem is that they can’t make the right decisions at the top. But no head coaching hire is going to believe that they are the wrong decision. A lot will depend on what they think of Poles and team president and CEOKevin Warren.

  1. D.J. Moore is a fascinating problem. The Bears have had a hard time getting him the ball all season and have resorted to using him in the running game to get him involved since interim head coachThomas Brown took over.

I really don’t know what this means. It could be that teams are concentrating on Moore so much as the Bears’ biggest threat that they’ve shut him down as a receiver. It could also mean that the Bears have grossly overestimated Moore’s talents. What action the team takes once a new offensive staff is hired will tell us what the situation really is.

  • Speaking of the Jets, Barnwell has them 8th behind only the New Orleans Saints, who are in cap hell for at least two years. Here’s what they said about the Jets:

“Well, you saw what happened over the past two years. A Jets team that attempted to shoot for the moon with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback landed in the darkness instead. At 4-11, they are guaranteed a worse record with Rodgers this season than they had with Zach Wilson & Co. in 2022 or 2023, a fate that even the most skeptical of Rodgers cynics wouldn’t have predicted. Though he has been better in recent weeks, it’s painful to even imagine the Jets running it back for another season with the now-41-year-old. For cultural reasons alone, it should be time to move on. Still, it’s tough to rule out anything in New York.”

Rodgers said a couple of weeks ago that he went back and looked at a film of himself when he was good, including when he was in his twenties. I, along with most Packer fans, could have told him what the problem was a long, long time ago. Instead of working within the confines of the offense and following a game plan, Rodgers tried to make a career out of bailing out and improvising. Most of that was done with the full support of a fawning media who care less about good football and more about exciting individual play (see Kyler Murray).

In any case, Rodgers, apparently as a result of his sudden introspection, has looked a lot better the last couple of weeks. He’s suddenly throwing with anticipation and getting the ball out on time.

It’s almost certainly way too little, way too late, though. If Rodgers had listened to coaches earlier, he probably would be finishing his career with multiple playoff appearances with the Packers rather than potentially doing so in disgrace with the dysfunctional Jets.

It will be interesting if he can find a landing spot next year or if he just retires.

  • Barnwell has the Dolphins second.

“I’ll start by saying I’m not sure the Dolphins should be looking to move on from Mike McDaniel, whose job could be in jeopardy if his team misses the postseason. McDaniel is 27-22 and made the playoffs in each of his first two seasons in charge; the last full-time Miami coach to finish his run with the Dolphins with a winning record was Dave Wannstedt, who left 20 years ago. This franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 2000. Moving on from McDaniel would be an aggressive decision.”

Stephen Ross can be an impulsive owner, and given past reporting and his background, he might regret not being in a position to hire Jim Harbaugh when the now-Chargers coach decided to leave Michigan a year ago. Would the Michigan booster really countenance hiring a Buckeye and go after Mike Vrabel? Firing McDaniel would only seem to make sense if Ross has a definite, landable target in mind. That coach would take over a talented roster and have a quarterback in place, but would he be facing unrealistic expectations?”

Like so many teams around the NFL, including the Bears, ownership is the biggest issue in Miami. With the second-oldest roster in the NFL, they have gone all in the last two years with some aggressive moves, but, like so many owners over the history of the NFL, Ross just hasn’t learned that you can’t buy a championship.

McDaniel isn’t the problem. What Ross needs to do is find a better general manager who can draft good, young talent and be patient. But Chris Grier is a long-time general manager and an apparent Ross favorite. If he’s dumb enough to fire McDaniel as a fall guy, he should be near the top of the Bears’ list of candidates.

  • As is my usual habit, I will not be staying up to watch the Bears play tonight. I habitually get up very early in the morning for work, and I simply can’t stay up until all hours of the night watching football, even the Bears anymore.

One thing I am enormously grateful for is that the Bears didn’t play as many night games this year. This will be only their third night game of the 2024 season. I would like to send out a personal thank you to the Chicago Bears and the NFL! Please keep it up!

  • For those of you who haven’t been to a game in a while, it’s a wonderful time to pick up tickets late in a bad season when the weather is cold. I went to last week’s game after being given tickets as a wonderful gift (hence no quick comments last week, either).

My brother and I sat in a 400-level section near midfield. The section was about 30% Lions fans, who were mostly well-behaved. Having said that, the guy directly in front of me was the single most obnoxious football fan I’ve ever encountered who wasn’t obliterated by alcohol. It was fun!

Is There Anyone in the Bears Front Office Who Can Be Counted On to Make a Good Decision? And Other Points of View.

  • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune has 10 thoughts after the Bears loss to the Vikings on Monday night. He quotes Vikings pass rusher Jonathan Greenard on the performance of Bears back up tackle Kiran Amegadjie. Amegadjie started in place of the concussed Braxton Jones.

“I caught him a couple times,” Greenard said. “He definitely has potential. Once he gets comfortable within himself and understands how to play this game, it will slow down for him. In this environment, for his first start, it’s kind of tough to judge and gauge it. He had some good run block technique. He ran me by the quarterback a few times when I was too high with long arms, he continued to ride me by the quarterback. He has some stuff in there. You can work with that. Just a rookie.”

Pass blocking is the most visible part of playing the offensive line and unfortunately Amegadjie had a tough night of it. But it’s funny that Greenard mentioned Amegadjie’s run blocking because as I watched him during the game on what was evidently a rough night for the rookie, that run blocking is his strength. He was pushing men around at the line of scrimmage with ease and I loved every minute of that part of his game. I mean he looked capable of pushing guys off of your TV screen.

He’s got some things to work on but you can see why the Bears liked him.

  • In an earlier article, Biggs quoted 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga after the 49ers loss.

“For us, it was making him uncomfortable. I hate to say that because he is a friend of mine, but it was making him uncomfortable back there and our defense — our defensive line especially — stepped up. It was coming up with different disguises to try to get him off the spot. You never want to give a rookie quarterback something easy where what he sees is what he gets.

“And so for us, it was late rotations, it was coming out from depth and getting deep and sometimes just holding a look when he maybe thought we were going to move into something else. You’ve got to change it around and you have to stay on your toes and making him just think made him hold the ball a little bit more. That helped our pass rush get home.”

Not to harp on this but this is why you don’t predict 10 or 11 wins for teams with rookie quarterbacks.

The Bears have three games in 11 days. That’s a tough task for the most proven head coaches in the NFL. But we’ll all get to see how Brown handles it as he tries to secure the permanent job.

I am so tired of this obsequious garbage from some members of the Chicago media as they make excuses for Thomas Brown. Jahns asked Brown a “question” after the 49ers game that was basically a statement that his shot at proving himself to be a head coach was unfair because of the circumstances. To his credit, Brown was having none of it and gave a generic answer that essentially didn’t acknowledge Jahns’ statement.

I’m positive that Brown would tell you that there are a thousand reasons for failure but not a single excuse. If he didn’t think he could do the job he would have told them to promote special teams coach Richard Hightower instead. He didn’t. He took it and now he’s got to succeed at it.

Brown’s up there making no excuses and I’m sure he expects his players to do the same. So why should we be making them?

  • From Kevin FIshbain’s Q&A column last week:

Caleb Williams has the 30th ranked QBR per ESPN, and 29th in completion percentage. … Caleb’s accuracy has been terrible, and so was Mitch Trubisky’s. The eye test tells me to not take much stock in the QBR stat, but I had the same thoughts with Justin [Fields] and Mitch, and was wrong in the end. There are a bevy of valid excuses for Caleb’s struggles, but I’m done making excuses, so I’m going to go off the stats I see, which isn’t good. Please talk me off the ledge if you can. – Eddie K.

Eddie, buddy, there’s no use telling me about the ”eye test” if you can’t see the difference between Williams and Trubisky or Fields. It’s night and day.

Williams has a future as a starter in this league. It might now be with the Bears if they don’t get their act together. But it will eventually be with somebody.

For those of us who are mired in despair watching this merry-go-round hit yet another new QB, new coach and possibly a new GM rotation, is there anything legitimately good to hang our optimism on? Or are we just going to be sad forever? — @mabdacuma

When the schedule is released every year, one of the first exercises I perform is looking at the quarterbacks the Bears will face. That’s a pretty good way of judging how things might shake out months ahead.

I reference this because if you’re looking for a reason for hope, that has to be rooted in Caleb Williams. If he’s the guy the Bears believe he can become, things could turn around much faster than anyone probably realizes with the team mired in a seven-game losing streak, tied for the fourth-longest in a single season in franchise history. (The Bears lost 10 consecutive games to close the 2022 season, had eight-game losing streaks in 2002 and 1978 and seven-game skids in 1997 and 1969. That’s it for single-season losing streaks of that length in the team’s deep history.)

If you can remove the emotion from it, the current slide is definitely different than the one to close out Matt Eberflus’ first season in 2022 and even the six-game losing streak in the middle of the 2020 season. Williams offers more hope than the quarterback situations in those seasons did. It’s fair to say there is more talent on the roster now, and of course there have been the frustrating late-game losses that piled up and led to Eberflus’ firing.

Biggs highlights the presence of Caleb Williams and I think that’s legitimate. But everyone (including Biggs) would agree that nothing will change unless the people at the top start making good decisions. And I very much question whether they are capable of that.

Let’s start with Ryan Poles before we get to the big guns here. I’d say that Poles has been a pretty fair GM when it comes to judging and acquiring talent. You can point to the failures here and there (I’m looking at you, Chase Claypool) and you can point out that he’s had one massive trade work out that gave him a bunch of picks. But you still have to take the right guys with those picks. He’s picked up some nice skill position players and he’s picked up a premiere pass rusher in an ordinary year in Montez Sweat.

The question is, of course, can he hire the right coach? History is not being kind to him on that front and I don’t feel the need to review it. But I will point out that he was reportedly with Eberflus every step of the way in those offensive coordinator interviews and he’s almost as culpable as he was when those hirings were made. Every reporter in town likes to point out that there was very little experience developing young quarterbacks on that staff now. But it wouldn’t take a rocket scientist to see that back when the hirings were made, either.

Let’s review.

  • *Shane Waldron, the then offensive coordinator, is a former tight end who coached under Sean McVay, who undoubtedly did much of the quarterback coaching. He was a quarterback coach in name only one year in Los Angeles (2019).  He worked with veteran Geno Smith in Seattle as offensive coordinator. Dave Canales was the quarterback coach. He’s now a head coach. Who do you think the rest of the NFL thought was responsible for Smith’s revival with the Seahawks? 
  • Thomas Brown, the then passing game coordinator, is a former running back who has never been a quarterback coach.
  • Kerry Joseph, the quarterbacks coach, was the assistant quarterbacks coach in Seattle.  Waldron stated that he will be doing the majority of the coaching in terms of the actual detailed performance and technique required on the field. He had never been an actual NFL position coach until this year.
  • Ryan Griffin is an offensive assistant who retired as a player only in 2022 and has little to no NFL coaching experience.

How did Poles not look at this staff before taking perhaps the most valuable prospect the franchise has ever drafted and not say “What the hell?”. How does he actually participate in the process from start to finish and consent to hire them?

And that brings me to Keven Warren who many Bears optimists believe will make the difference in this search.

Warren’s record as an NFL executive isn’t obviously bad. At least teams keep hiring him, including the Rams, Lions, Vikings and now the Bears. But he’s never had a role in hiring personnel of any type.

And then there’s his stint as Big 10 commissioner.

Warren was named Commissioner of the Big Ten Conference in 2019 and, therefore, the Big 10 maneuvered through the COVID-19 pandemic. Badly.

The Big 10 initially canceled the entire 2020 season. At which point the SEC said, “What? You’ve got to be kidding!” and the ACC followed suit. Pretty soon everyone was playing except the Big 10. After a backlash from players, coaches and fans, the football season was eventually reinstated, and the Big Ten put together a nine-game, conference-only schedule for its programs.

Warren later said, “I don’t have any regrets. Quite naturally, we all look back on our lives and other things that we wish we would have maybe done a little bit differently. But if I had the chance to do it all over last year, I would make the same decisions that we made.”

Warren made the wrong decision by virtually every metric. And then doubled down on it. Sound familiar?

OK, that’s one decision. But it was a bad one in probably the biggest spot Warren had ever been in.

And his record with the Bears?

I’m setting aside the stadium issue because it’s not done yet and we don’t know where all of that is going to lead. But Warren was hired to provide oversight over the football program, too.

I get it. He’s not a “football guy”. But I collected that information above about the offensive coaching staff and so could he. It isn’t like you have to be a football coach. 30 minutes looking at Wikipedia pages would have done it. Where was he? The answer is either not doing his job or doing it badly. Either way, Bears fans have a big problem. But that’s nothing new, is it?

The Bears need people from top to bottom who have a history of making good decisions. Ideally that would start with ownership that makes good decisions and, therefore, hires people to oversee the business who also make good decisions. But we all know that is going to come down to hoping a blind squirrel finds a nut.

Have they found even one between Poles and Warren who Bears fans can count to make good decisions for this team and hire a good head coach? You will hardly blame me for having my doubts.

Quick Game Comments: Bears at 49ers 12/8/24

Defense

  1. The 49ers got the ball first and easily drove right down and scored a touchdown. It wasn’t a good start. And it didn’t get better.
  2. The Bears looked to me like they came out expecting the 49ers to try to run on them. They didn’t. The first drive was 1 run and six passes, and they drove through the Bears like a hot knife through butter.
  3. Big plays were the name of the game early as the 49ers hit on mid- to long-range throws over and over. It was an ugly first half.
  4. The 49ers did what other teams have been doing, which is throw at everyone except Jaylon Johnson. They seemed to pick particularly on the Bears safeties.
  5. I was definitely underwhelmed by the performance of the Bears defensive line. They lost the line of scrimmage most of the time, and any plays that were made were on the second level. This was not good.
  6. I’m reminded of Brad Biggs column on Sunday morning which profiled Brock Purdy. A scout stated that Purdy had been struggling all season because he couldn’t get the ball out on time. Well, it wasn’t a problem today. The ball came out fast and on time, and his receivers made mincemeat of the Bears secondary. So either Purdy was a lot better than he has been all year or the Bears weren’t doing something to him that the rest of the league has been.
  7. T.J. Edwards was all over the place. Very good game for him.

Offense

  1. The 49ers went with the “drop 8 and try to confuse the rookie” approach to defense today. And it certainly looked like it worked as the Bears tried to use the short passing game that they had been using to duck the blitz in the previous few games. Though they did better in the second half, it didn’t work well.
  2. The Bears offensive line just couldn’t get any movement in the run game in the first half. Caleb Williams was sacked three times. It was total dominance up front.
  3. The Bears came out in the second half with a nice drive, but it took up 2/3 of the third quarter. The Bears ran the ball well, and protection for Williams was better. A similar drive to end the quarter might have put the Bears back in it, but Caleb Williams fumbled the ball as he tried to stop himself from passing a ball forward, and the ball game was over with the ensuing touchdown. The Bears were never going to get enough points to catch up after that.
  4. Williams showed more of a tendency to run in the second half as well, and that seemed to help.
  5. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze also had better play in the second half.

Miscellaneous

  1. There were some bad drops in this game. For instance, D.J. Moore dropped a ball that was right on the money in the first half that would have helped stop the early bleeding. Cole Kmet dropped a ball in the end zone on a 2-point attempt. The balls were right on the money. You wonder if Chris Beaty moving to offensive coordinator had an effect on the wide receivers’ preparedness to play.
  2. The Bears were on the road again, and they played poorly again. Words like “soft” and “mentally weak” start to come up when this happens. Always with a question mark. But the Bears need to do something to erase this tendency to lose away from home.
  3. One of the questions coming into the week was whether the Bears highly rated defense would regress without Matt Eberflus running the show in the same way that the Jets defense regressed in the absence of Robert Saleh, who was also fired midseason. I’d say that the Bears are in danger of having the same thing happen to them. It’s a bit disturbing to think how badly the Bears were outcoached this game. It makes you wonder how bad the last four games of this season could be.