The NFL Draft Quarterback Odds Are Odd

Mike Florio at informs us about where the quarterbacks may be selected in the upcoming NFL draft.

“[Malik Willis] is the favorite to be the first quarterback selected, with current odds at -145. [Kenny] Pickett is at +135. Next comes Desmond Ridder at +1000, Matt Corral at +1800, and Sam Howell at +5000.

“Here’s where it gets intriguing. Even though Willis is the favorite to be the first quarterback drafted, Pickett has better odds to be selected at one specific position in the top 20.”

“At No. 6, Pickett is a +175 favorite to be the selection. Willis stands at +400. Thus, while the oddsmakers at PointsBet generally regard Willis as being viewed as more desirable, they think Carolina prefers Pickett to Willis.”

“At No. 20, where the Steelers pick, Willis is the favorite at +500. Pickett is just behind Willis, at +600.”

This was really interesting.

Although Willis is the favorite to be the first quarterback selected, it looks to me like Pickett is the favorite amongst the teams that need quarterbacks.

A couple of thoughts:

  1. Recent rumors have it that the Steelers are really interested in Ridder at #20. Ridder is also seen as the Seahawks’ favorite. They pick at #9. So either these are smoke screens or both teams may be hoping to take Ridder in the second round.
  2. These odds might suggest the possibility that a team will trade up to take Willis. It could be the Saints as the odds are a little better that Willis will go to them than Picket. The other possibility is that a team no one is thinking of will surprise the league by trading up on Thursday night to get Willis. Perhaps its my Bears-centric point of view but this draft looks in many ways like the 2018 draft when Kansas City and Houston surprised everyone by trading up to get the undervalued Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.

Although the Bears don’t have a pick on Thursday night, this whole thing should still be interesting to watch.

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