Category: Chicago Bears

Wild Draft Rumors, Debatable Needs at Wide Receiver and Running Back and Other Points of View.

Bears

“Whether the Bears address their offensive line on the first or second day of the draft, or both, the football absolute at work is the need to get the pick right. Very, very right.

“This is beyond the obvious need to acquire talent now. It involves not having to go after the same position again and again if there’s a miss near the top of the draft. Because the cost of a failed pick ripples into subsequent drafts, as the Bears have found too often.”

“Replacing players because of age or free-agency departures is part of the deal. But needing to address the same position year after year is a hidden disaster.”

I’ve often said that the Bears need impact players – and they do.  But even more than that the player needs to be a solid hit.  It has to be a guy you can plug in to a position that you can now forget about as a need for years to come.

I don’t think the Bears can afford to go with a boom or bust guy here.

“Stubbornly refusing to attempt to upgrade the position last offseason, the Bears probably will take their chances once again with [Johnny] Knox, Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and whoever else they can muster.  They shouldn’t.”

“The Bears have do have their share of shortcomings at wide receiver. But QB Jay Cutler is capable of making each and every one of their pass catchers better – as long as he has an offensive line that can protect him. That’s the Bears’ No. 1 priority in the draft.”

Along with virtually everyone else I’m inclined to agree with LeGere.  I don’t like the receivers anymore than Florio does (or LeGere for that matter).  But I’d put wide receiver third or fourth on the list after upgrading at the line of scrimmage.

  • Florio also thinks running back is a need ahead of cornerback.  Though I have no problem with the Bears upgrading at the position, Chester Taylor’s contract is such that he’s going to get another year to show he can perform.  The Bears took Harvey Unga in the supplemental draft last year and probably still want to give Garrett Wolfe and Kahlil Bell their shot to compete for jobs this sumer.  If they see someone they really like, they could take him late but otherwise I think the Bears are full up here.
  • Michael C. Wright at ESPNChicago.com talks about the Bears need at center.  He lists the top 20 prospects at the position and the round they are projected to go in, giving an overall draft positional grade of “C-“.  But Wright doesn’t account for most of the guards that are thought to be center prospects as well, including Florida’s Mike Pouncey.  Add them into the mix and the Bears could pick up a good one if they choose to go that route.
  • Though its unlikely the Beas will take one very high, it is possible they will go receiver somewhere in the draft.  Matt Waldman, writing for the New York Times, profiles his third and fourth best receivers, Randall Cobb and Greg Little, respectively:

  • More trouble for South Florida defensive back Mistral Raymond, a potential Bear target.  Via Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune.

Elsewhere

“Projecting and developing drafted quarterbacks is one of the worst things the Raiders do as a franchise. Al Davis hasn’t nailed one since 1968, when he took quarterbacks in the first two rounds with second-round pick Ken Stabler (No. 58 overall) quickly surpassing first-round pick Eldredge Dickey (No. 25) and leading the franchise to its first Super Bowl title in addition to winning the Most Valuable Player award.”

  • Todd McShay and Mel Kiper talk second tier quarterbacks on ESPN.  It can’t be said enough that these evaluations are critical for the Bears as teams may look to trade up either with them or in front of them to get into the first round to take one:

“’His motion was off [last year],’ the NFC executive said. ‘His release point was all over the place. So, guess what? Now, it’s pretty good. He worked on it, fixed it in the offseason.’

One Final Thought

As high as Pelissero thinks Locker may go, it may not be high enough.  As McShay talks draft in this video he says he thinks the Titans at eight might take Locker ahead of Minnesota.  He also thinks the Bengals might draft Julio Jones over A. J. Green in the #4 slot.  Those would be some shocking picks:

Illinois Governor Has Not Paid Off on Bet and Other Points of View

Bears

“It obviously depends on how far they trade down and how motivated their trading partner is to move up. But in speculating about what type of compensation the Bears would get in exchange for the 29th pick, we can look back at what occurred in last year’s draft when two picks in the same vicinity were dealt. The Ravens traded the 25th pick to the Broncos in exchange for selections in the second (43rd overall), third (70) and fourth (114) rounds. The Vikings traded the 30th pick along with a fourth-rounder (128) to the Lions in exchange for choices in the second (34), fourth (100) and seventh (214) rounds.”

UCLA safety Rahim Moore is getting a lot of attention from a number of NFC teams. I’m hearing both the Cowboys and Bears have a lot of interest in the center field standout and he could be an option for both in round two.

Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue DE— I’ve seen him taken by the Bears in at least one mock draft

Christian Ponder, Florida State QB – my gut feeling is that someone is going to trade up to take Ponder.  The Bears are a possible trading partner but will also benefit if someone in front of them trades down, leaving another good non-quarterback to fall.

Mike Pouncey, Florida C/G – there’s almost no way Pouncey falls to the Bears as he continues to rise up boards.

N.F.L. Draft: Torrey Smith, 5th-Ranked Receiver – NYTimes.com

Matt Waldman, writing for the New York Times, is reviewing the top five players by position.  It highly iunlikely the Bears will go wide receiver in the first round but the second is not out of the question.  Here is the profile for Torrey Smith, his fifth ranked receiver.

  • Greg Gabriel at the National Football Post breaks down Iowa quarterback Ricki Stanzi.  The Bears will probably draft a developmental quarterback and if Stanzi falls far enough, he’s a distinct possibility.

Elsewhere

“It’s a different way of thinking about line play.  How much has Dallas embraced it?   If you match this philosophy up with players visiting Valley Ranch this past week, it seems the Cowboys are rather warm to the approach.”

I also have agreed with this assessment.

  • Because of the success of Ndamukong Suh and to a lesser extent Gerald McCoy from last year’s draft, many assume defensive line is a good direction to go in at the top of the draft.  Not necessarily so says Joe Reedy at the Cincinnati Enquirer:

“Of the [last] 15 defensive linemen who have gone in the top six overall, only five have made at least one Pro Bowl. Of the seven defensive ends, the last four are disappointments headlined by Vernon Gholston, who can be called a bust after three underwhelming seasons with the Jets.”

“Complicating matters this year is the fact that without a CBA agreement teams won’t be allowed to sign undrafted free agents right away.”

“I’ve been told that means if a team needs to fill a position – like fullback, safety or nose tackle with a youngster to develop – they will have to draft him in the later rounds, using one of their sixth or seventh-round picks.

“I’ve been warned this could alter the approach of the late round selection, preventing teams from drafting the best available player (no matter what’s already on their roster) because they are addressing needs in this new, unchartered era of the NFL.”

“A mini-trend this year, according to several front office men, is that teams are not giving prospects a particular grade just because those players are ‘supposed to’ have that grade, as per the rest of the league. It seems that teams are more inclined to go out on a limb with players, even if their thinking is unconventional. The result could be more surprise picks, especially towards the end of the first round.”

  • Matthew Cammarata at the Detroit Free Press thinks the three most likely picks for the Lions at 13 will be cornerback Prince Amukamara and offensive tackles Anthony Castonzo and Tyron Smith.  As I said yesterday, there’s a wide disparity of opinion on whether the Lions actually need a tackle of not and one of the more interesting questions in this draft will be what the Lions will do if Amukamara isn’t there.

You can count Tim Twentyman at the Detroit News as one who thinks offensive tackle in the first round probably shouldn’t be an option:

“By most accounts, this year’s crop of tackles is deep with first-round talent but short on a sure thing.

“Read most of the scouting reports on these tackles and you’ll see the words ‘potential”’ and ‘project.”’ There aren’t any guys that knock my socks off.”

“Some fans don’t want to hear it, but left tackle Jeff Backus is coming off two of the best seasons in his career. Coach Jim Schwartz called last season’s performance Pro-Bowl worthy.”

“Southern Cal OT Tyron Smith is getting a lot of interest from the Cowboys at nine, but I am also hearing they like Missouri DE Aldon Smith a lot and would love to pair him opposite DeMarcus Ware off the edge.

If Smith is there for the Cowboys I’ve got a feeling he is a virtual lock here.  They needs a tackle as Marc Colombo is on his last legs and Smith is the consensus as the best tackle in the draft.

“I know they’ve had a lot of talk about the quarterback situation here in Miami, we’ve had a lot of talk about it in Charlotte too.  It’s all going to boil down to quarterbacks. in this league, the running game is predicated on whether you have a quarterback or not. If you don’t have a quarterback, teams will stack the box and they force you to do what you do best. …

“It’s basically going to boil down to who has the better quarterback, or who’s making the conscious effort to go out and find a quarterback or mold a quarterback they already have into a championship caliber quarterback.”


One Final Thought

Apparently Illinois governor Pat Quinn is on the border of welshing on his bet with Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. From Jim Singl at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Brad Biggs at the National Football Post:

“So, that means Quinn has yet to show up decked out in his best green and gold gear at a Wisconsin food pantry. What gives? Is he weaseling out, Singl asked?

“’No, no, no, absolutely not,’ Quinn’s spokesman Grant Klinzman said. ‘He fully intends to live up to the terms of the bet.’

“That’s nice. Was Quinn planning on settling up anytime soon or does the NFL lockout have him really down in the dumps?

“’He’s a very, very busy guy,’ Klinzman said. ‘I think you guys have been pretty busy, as well.’”

 

Trend Towards Interior Linemen May Characterize Draft

I’ve long held that offensive guard is becoming a more important position in the National Football League than in years past.  Bear fans need only look at their own division for one of the best examples of why this is.  The Minnesota Vikings spent what was at the time a fortune for a guard on Steve Hutchinson in 2006.  Ever since we have watched Hutchinson serve as the key piece of what was up to last year an excellent to good offensive line.

Dan Pompei writing for the National Football Post, explains why interior offensive linemen and defensive tackles have recently become almost as important as offensive tackles and defensive ends in the NFL game:

“What’s changed? Offenses.

“Because protecting the quarterback is more difficult than ever, and arguably more important with the way teams are emphasizing the pass, we’re seeing fewer and fewer deep drops. It’s all short drops and quick throws. That minimizes edge rushers. And it also makes the offensive tackles less important.

“Defensive tackles like Nick Fairley could end up being rewarded on draft day.

“However, interior pass rushers have become more important. If a defensive tackle can penetrate, either through power or quickness, he can force a quarterback to adjust even on a well executed short drop that’s intended to yield a quick pass.”

“And the best way to stop a defensive tackle like [Ndamukong] Suh or Sedrick Ellis is with a premier interior blocker like Logan Mankins or Jahri Evans.”

I think Pompei has a great point and I wonder how many draft “experts” have picked up on the trend.  I look at Todd McShay‘s mock draft at ESPN and I see a huge run on linemen in the first round from 8 to 32 and almost all of the players taken are offensive tackles and defensive ends.  Certainly those positions are still important but will all of those teams, many of whom need an upgrade inside, take a second rate prospect at those outside positions over a first rate interior lineman?  I have my doubts.

Certainly the Bears have always placed a premium on the defensive tackle position in part because of the scheme they run.  But most mock drafts continue to predict that they and other teams like them in the second half of the first round will go with a risky offensive tackle “project” with “potential” figuring they can pick up a guard and/or center later.  I don’t think this is a good way of approaching the draft anymore.

Admittedly offensive coordinator Mike Martz bucks the offensive trend that Pompei describes in that his ideal scheme includes more deep routes and plenty of seven step drops.  Martz absolutely has to have good tackles for that.  But I’m not so sure the Bears are going to find an upgrade at left tackle late in round one.  On the other hand, as Pompei implies here, Danny Watkins at guard might make the line decidedly better in another important way.

I wouldn’t be surprised if other teams aren’t thinking the same way and you start to wonder if those who “reach” for interior offensive linemen will actually be reaching at all.

In any case just how much the game has changed and in what way will be indicated by the choices teams make in the second half of round one and early in round two.  Don’t be surprised if the trend is different from what people expect.

It’s Good Year to Be Drafting Late in the First Round. And Other Points of View.

Bears

  • Nice to see Jay Cutler back in the public eye.  Most of us would like to see him back in Halas Hall working with offensive coordinator Mike Martz.  He told Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times that the players will start working out on their own if the lockout continues:

“‘Right now, we’re not in a huge rush,’ Cutler said, noting that the emphasis is for players to begin getting in shape. ‘April was still a month that we ran and lifted.

“‘If we’re locked out by May, we’re definitely going to have to make something happen.’”

Jensen goes on to do one of his personal profile specialties by describing the lessons learned in Cutler’s trip to Kenya.

“[Matt] Forte produced rather well behind the same blocking, averaging 4.5 yards per rush. In fact, I am having a difficult time coming up with a running back who had a worse 2010 season than Taylor. He will turn 32 during the 2011 season, and it is conceivable that we have already seen the best that Taylor has to offer and that his signing in Chicago will go down as a massive mistake.

“In a way, Taylor is too much like Forte — but lesser in all regards. Taylor has been at his best when he can thrive on third downs and use his receiving skills. But Forte is the superior route runner and overall weapon in this department, which is of extra importance in Mike Martz’s offensive scheme.”

“’You might have five players you’re comfortable with in the top five, and the other guys are a projection based on potential,’ said an AFC personnel director. ‘But 17-32, it’ll be very strong. You could get a defensive lineman who could start immediately at 25. You could get a left tackle at 27 or 28 who’ll start for you. And those are premium positions. They’re not elite, but there are guys who’ll play and play for you for a long time in those groups.’

“The NFC personnel exec said there are ‘Jordan Grosses, not Jonathan Ogdens’ to be had late in the first round. Good if you’re, say, the Steelers with a need for a tackle at No. 31. Not so good if you have that same need and you’re the Bills at No. 3, though it might mean teams in that position can wait until the second round to get their man.”

  • Chad Reuter at NFLDraftScout.com asks one of the most vital questions about the draft if you are a Bears fan:  How many quarterbacks will be drafted early?  Teams looking to get a QB will a) provide potential trading partners for the Bears at the end of the first round and/or b) gobble up picks in front of the Bears leaving better non-quarterback prospects to fall to them.
  • We welcome back ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert from vacation by citing his look at who was taken in the last seven drafts in the positions that the NFC North teams currently sit in.  I generally agree with his take on the Bears spot at 29:

2010: Cornerback Kyle Wilson (New York Jets)
2009: Wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)
2008: Defensive end Kentwan Balmer (San Francisco 49ers)
2007: Offensive guard Ben Grubbs (Baltimore Ravens)
2006: Center Nick Mangold (New York Jets)
2005: Defensive back Marlin Jackson (Indianapolis Colts)
2004: Wide receiver Michael Jenkins (Atlanta Falcons)

ANALYSIS: The bottom of the first round is a great place to find starting-caliber guards and centers. The top tackles are usually off the board. Fortunately for the Bears, they could use a guard or center just as much as a tackle. While coach Lovie Smith wants to bring back veteran center Olin Kreutz, a free agent, he will have to be replaced some day. And more depth at guard could allow the Bears to move 2008 first-round draft pick Chris Williams back to left tackle.

  • Rafael Vela at the Cowboys Nation blog rates the tackle prospects.  Bear in mind that the Cowboys really need someone for the right side.  J’Marcus Webb is a known quantity on the right and an unknown quantity on the left.  In addition, Chris Williams also probably better at right tackle than than anywhere else.  So the Bears are stacked there and if they draft a tackle, they should probably be looking left or not at all.
  • You can add defensive back Mistral Raymond to the list of prospects which has developed due to rumors of a South Florida-Chicago Bears connection.  He’s got a scary story coming from what sounds like a scary neighborhood.  Via Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune.
  • Mullin, again, this time as he wonders if Da’Quan Bowers could drop into the Bears range.  If he did it would be a mixed bag because it would mean that he got very bad news on his NFL Combine medical re-check.

Elsewhere

“’We talked a lot about that,’ said former Green Bay Packers strength and conditioning guru Dave Redding, who retired in February, fully turning over the reins to associate Mark Lovat. ‘Some guys who don’t have structure are going to have problems.

“’I’m not naming names, but you’re going to have guys who shut it down and don’t do anything. Then when they come back, I think you’ll see an issue in training camp. The bigger linemen will have more problems. You’ll have muscle pulls and more fatigue injuries. You’ll see issues with hamstrings and quads.’”

“10. Offensive and defensive linemen with a wrestlers background get bonus points. That’s the hardest sport on earth because there’s no six minutes in sports that’s tougher. Those with wrestling backgrounds (I wrestled in high school) know how important leverage and hand placement is, and so do position coaches. So if you’re a former state wrestling champion you get brownie points.”

  • Dave Birkett at the Detroit Free Press addresses an interesting and on going debate amongst NFL experts and fans about whether the Detroit Lions need an offensive tackle.  Few draft gurus have offensive line ranked higher than third on their list of needs and even then its usually to call for an interior lineman.  Birkett quotes Pro Football Weekly’s Nolan Nawrocki:

“I think they’ve had a glaring need at left tackle for a number of years, but they feel comfortable with Jeff Backus there, and they’re going to have to live with an injured quarterback if they continue to believe he’s going to be able to hold that left tackle position for them.”

  • As are the Dallas Cowboys:

  • I guess baseball fans at the ball park have to take their entertainment wherever they can get it. From the Sports Pickle:

One Final Thought

In the “ask a stupid question…” department , we have this Tweet from a UConn fan on the day of their NCAA tournament game (again via the Sports Pickle):

Vick Huskies.jpg

 

Lovie Smith “Favorites” and Other Points of View

Bears

“Number of picks: 43
“Still on team: 21
“Starters: 7
“Best pick: WR Devin Hester, 2006
“Worst pick: OT Chris Williams, 2008

“Overall: Hester, a second-round pick in 2006, has been to three Pro Bowls and was named first-team All Pro three teams, too. He has been one of the most dynamic returners in NFL history.  Matt Forte, a 1,000-yard rusher, was selected in the second round in 2008. Their first pick that year, Williams was drafted to be the left tackle of the future. Instead, he’s just the left guard of today, as he has fallen far short of expectations. The Bears haven’t had a pick within the first two rounds since ’08, but they landed Johnny Knox in the fifth round in ’09.”

“The Bears have two linebackers in place, both veterans in Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher. That also ties up substantial payroll, meaning the Bears will not invest heavily at the position in free agency, particular for a player who projects to be a two-down role fit at least until either Briggs or Urlacher are substantially less productive.”

“Headed back to pittsburgh…. would be shocked if i wasnt in a dallas uniform nxt year! The draft is april 28th so we will see….”

“Some earlier mock drafts had the Bears tabbing Miami OT-OG Orlando Franklin at 29, but he had a lousy Pro Day, which could drop him all the way to Round 3. That could leave the Bears with a choice between Mississippi State OT Derek Sherrod or Baylor OG Danny Watkins if they want to go O-line.”

“’I think they can,’ Kiper Jr. said when I asked if they could land an impact offensive tackle without moving up in the first round. ‘If they went with a Nate Solder or a Derrick Sherrod where they are picking, Solder being from Colorado and Sherrod from Mississippi State, they could help their offensive line there and wait until the late second round and take maybe a Marvin Austin [from North Carolina], who would fit their scheme very well. If Marvin Austin would’ve played this year he would’ve been a late first-round pick. He could be gone by then but if he’s there he could be a guy who could certainly be in the mix. Allen Bailey, a kid out of Miami, if you move him inside [to defensive tackle] in their scheme he could fit what they are looking for. He wasn’t productive at defensive end this year and could move inside. Then maybe in the third round take a look at a Stefen Wisniewski or one of those versatile center/guard types. That’s what they need as well, like John Moffitt from Wisconsin and Rodney Hudson from Florida State. There are a lot of those center/guard combo guys they could look for at that point in the draft.’”

“29. Chicago: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
“Austin’s name has been picking up some steam over the last week and the Bears have a need at the DT position in Lovie Smith’s defense.”

Elsewhere

One Final Thought

Jeff Dickerson at ESPN continues his series on Bears biggest draft steals and busts.  These two are on Charles Tillman and Matt Forte as “steals” and Michael Okwo and Dan Bazuin as busts.

I’m having a hard time understanding how Tillman, a guy taken in the second round and 35th overall (which is roughly where he was projected to go), can be a “steal”.  The choice of Forte as a “steal” isn’t much better.  My gut feeling is that Dickerson has chosen these two guys who are just living up to expectations because he couldn’t find five steals.  I’ll bet finding the busts was a lot easier, though.

Anyway here’s the line on third round pick Okwo:

“A favorite of Bears coach Lovie Smith coming out of school, Okwo confounded coaches and teammates with his inability to pick up even the simplest concepts of the Bears’ defense.”

I spend a lot of time on this blog trying to read between the lines in articles like this because there are so many things that are either off the record or that no writer simply wants to say outright.  That means a lot of speculation on little comments here and there.  And in this case I’m stretching it a lot and I want to freely acknowledge that up front.

Having said that, many of us who like Smith as a head coach have always had a niggling concern that he has too much influence in the draft room, especially since the Bears’ Super Bowl appearance.  So Dickerson’s statement makes me wonder how many other draft busts were “Lovie Smith favorites”.

Hypocritical Madden Game Causing Head Injuries. And Other Points of View.

Bears

“How much change does Toub expect on Sundays in the fall? He says half the kickoffs in the NFL could be touchbacks.

“’We’ve invested in a lot of money in Devin (Hester) and our return game and players and they’ve basically devalued that for us,’ Toub said. ‘I don’t think there is any question. You’re hurting the teams that are good in the return game and you are rewarding teams that aren’t very good in kickoff coverage. With just the rule change, they got better on kickoff coverage. To me, it’s not real fair. That’s the way it is. We’ll play it out.’”

“If Corey Liuget and Marvin Austin are there when Chicago picks in the first round, which one do you go with and why? Shaun, Anchorage, Ak.

“I would go with Liuget in a second, and that probably explains why Liuget won’t be available when the Bears are picking. Liuget is a much safer pick, and he’s more talented. Austin could develop into a fine pro. He has the talent to be even better than Liuget. But picking him high is risky because he has been inconsistent on and off the field. Teams have more concerns about his personality and coachability than his athleticism, and the fact that he hasn’t played in a year is troubling.”

“Dan, why are we not hearing more about Drake Nevis, the DT from Louisiana State?”
“—Tony, Arlington Heights”

“Nevis would be a good fit in the Bears’ scheme. The only hesitation with him is he is a little smaller than ideal. Some teams fear he will wear down against bigger competition, and might be best suited as a wave player who takes maybe 40 snaps a game. He also had only one season of top production. For those reasons, Nevis is not considered as desirable a prospect as Liuget and some of the other top tackles.”

“I was just young and immature. But at the end of the day, I learned the valuable life lessons that attitude will take you everywhere you want to go in life, and to be prepared when your number is called.”

“Last season, Bennett caught five or more passes in a game only twice. But though he lacks a lot of home run potential, the Bears should target him more often. It goes against [offensive coordinator Mike] Martz’s nature, but a controlled passing game featuring Bennett, [tight end Greg] Olsen and running back Matt Forte with some deep shots downfield could be a winning formula, considering how strong the Bears’ defense and special teams are.”

“It’s difficult [for them].  You don’t know what to do, nobody’s telling you what to do so you’re kind of out on your own, and you feel like you’re alone in this situation but I always give my phone number to everyone to call me if they want to. Other guys in their respective positions [do the same], so if the wide receivers are feeling some type of way, they can call Rashied [Davis], or defensive linemen they can call myself.”

  • Finally, Smith talks offseason with Chicago reporters in this video.  From Vaughn McClure at the Tribune:

Elsewhere

  • The Detroit Lions are on the clock at ESPN:

  • So are the Minnesota Vikings:

  • Speaking of Minnesota, democracy is apparently dead there.  Along with the populace.
  • Joe Reedy at the Cincinnati Enquirer wonders if the Bengals will end up taking Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert in the draft.  In the process he states that the first two picks in the draft are “nearly set”.  That’s news to me.
  • Bob Sturm at the Dallas Morning News documents the fall of cornerback Terence Newman in 2010.  Newman’s play will be a critical factor in determining the their degree of success in 2011.
  • The Cowboys apparently handle their visits with players a bit differently than most teams.  As far as I can tell, most teams seem handle therse visits one or two players at a time.  However, David Moore, also at the Dallas Morning News reports that the Cowboys had 16 players in at once including potential first or second round picks Tyron Smith, J.J. Watt, Nick Solder, Aaron Williams, and Rahim Moore.
  • Rafael Vela at the Cowboys Nation blog takes a fascinating look at how the Cowboys approached drafting offensive tackles last year.
  • Ryan Grant’s car service is obviously run by a Bears fan.  Via Bob Wolfley at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  • Todd McShay at ESPN is releasing a new mock draft.  Here are picks 1-10:


“Myth Buster

“LeGarrette Blount is a budding star

“Character wasn’t the only reason Blount went undrafted. And there’s a reason the Titans cut him after training camp.  Blount has little speed and struggles to change directions. That’s fine for a power runner. But Blount’s not a power runner. He’s just a runner who happens to weigh 250 pounds. To his credit, Blount broke a lot of tackles in 2010 (it was amazing the way defenders would slowly trickle off of him). But far too often he left yards on the field by bracing for contact or not pressing his holes. And he couldn’t be counted on in the passing game or short-yardage situations. It will be difficult for Blount to carve out a long-term niche in the N.F.L.”

One Final Thought

With the news that Madden Football video game will include removing players with concussions as part of the game, we have this disturbing report from The Onion on the effect of Madden upon the real players:

“Examining MRIs and PET scans of Madden football veterans, scientists discovered severely damaged neural pathways in parts of the brain associated with motivation and attention, malformations that might explain the common inability among players to perform such basic tasks as maintaining hygiene and preparing meals for themselves.”

When will E.A Sports realize that players safety must come first?

A Busy Schedule for First Round Picks in New York and Other Points of View

Bears

  • Wes Bunting keeps us all sane with draft rumors (it all we’ve got right now).  Here’s what he’s got on the Bears:

“The Bears are said to have taken an interest in South Florida defensive tackle Terrell McClain and he could be an option for Chicago on day two of the draft.”

“Purdue’s Ryan Kerrigan appears to be making a move and could be picked somewhere in the 20-to-30 range. What’s the reason for the jump? Kerrigan is perceived as safe. He might not have the top end potential some of the pass rushers have, but he isn’t as risky, either.”

  • How Bart Hubbuch at the New York Post comes up with running back as the Bears second biggest need behind offensive line I don’t know.  Its true that Chester Taylor’s production wasn’t great but the Bears aren’t going to throw the money they paid him away after one year.  The competition behind Taylor will be fierce between Kahlil Bell and last year’s supplemental draft pick Harvey Unga.  Though he wasn’t tendered an offer free agent Garrett Wolfe is an excellent special teamer and he may still be in the mix before the post draft dust has settled.

The Bears don’t need another running back.

“Bears TE Greg Olsen did what was asked of him last season — he improved as a blocker, which had always the weakest part of his game — and team observers say he’s a better all-around player heading into 2011. We hear the Bears have interest in extending Olsen’s deal beyond ’11, and Olsen would be receptive to those talks, but the league has told team employees not to discuss current players with agents during the lockout. Getting a deal done this year with Olsen, who will be looking to maximize his value in his prime years, could be difficult.”

“Instead of keeping it, young Cliff Forrest insisted on returning the ring to its rightful owner, which he did Saturday morning after flying to Chicago with his family.

“‘I Googled Mr. Perry and saw that he had a disease and had to sell it because of rough times,’ young Cliff said. ‘He only played in one Super Bowl. I thought he would want it more than I did.’”

Elsewhere

  • Dan Gantt at the Charlotte Observer writes about Auburn quarterback Cam Newton’s upcoming visit to Carolina.  Most of this article was nonsense from former NFL quarterback and mentor Warren Moon and others that you can throw away.  But this quote from Brad Franchione stood out as something that had the ring of truth.  Franchione coached Newton at Blinn Junior College after he was thrown out of Florida:

“He was the kind of leader (who) would challenge the competitive nature of these guys.  I’d say that during his year here, there were 25 or 30 practices that happened without coaches, because Cam was pushing his teammates.”

“Warren Moon isn’t the only person who thinks race may be a factor in the way the NFL world is perceiving Cam Newton. A high ranking NFL executive, who is white, came to the same conclusion before Moon made his comments. ‘If Newton were white, he’d be the first pick in the draft,’ he said.”

  • Newton’s character concerns are magnified because he is a quarterback.  But qualitatively they’re nothing compared to the ones about teammate defensive tackle Nick Fairly.  Intangibles are one thing.  Outright questions about football character are another thing all together.  Hubbuch reports:

“There’s no doubting Fairley’s ability, but teams have been so put off by concerns about dirty play on the field and a questionable work ethic off it that some are privately comparing him with notorious head case Albert Haynesworth.”

He didn’t want his girl friend to know he was taking it so he tore the label off.

“If the UFL coaches (Jim Fassel, Jerry Glanville, Denny Green and Marty Schottenheimer, among others), and the NFL coaches had a coach-off, might the UFL win?”

One Final Thought

Mike Tanier at the New York Times goes over the potential itinerary for first round draft picks in New York for the first day of the draft.  For instance, this seminar sounds useful:

“3:45 P.M.

“Tweet Like the Pros Workshop

“Rookies get a crash course in social networking from the N.F.L.’s blandest players. Sample PowerPoint slide: “Good — ‘Rise ’n’ Grind’ and ‘Off 2 da gym.’ Bad — ‘I demand da ball more!’ and anything with standard grammar and syntax.”

But everyones favorite is, of course, the main event:

“8 TO 11 P.M.

“First Round of the Draft

“Smile. The entire blogosphere just branded you a reach.”

That’s me.


Quarterback Run May Lead to Potential First Round Trade for Bears

Dan Pompei, writing for the National Football Post, had a comment in his weekly NFL Sunday Blitz feature that might make Bear fans sit up and take notice.  He comments upon the fact that there’s no consensus on the top eight quarterbacks.  These are Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Ricky Stanzi.

The first two will be gone in the first half of round one.  The last six, however, are a different story.

“‘The all have holes in them,’ an NFC director of college scouting said. ‘So it will be beauty in the eye of the beholder.’

“Despite the fact that all of them have holes in them, they aren’t supposed to last long on draft day. It’s starting to look like all eight could be gone by the end of round three. ‘Teams that think they’ll get the quarterback they want in the second round could be in for a rude awaking,’ the director said. ‘Teams could be trading up to late first round for those guys.’”

As anyone who is reading this knows, the “late first round” means “Chicago Bears territory.”

Certainly the Bears have a history of trading out of the first round.  The relevant theory is one that was addressed recently by Omar Kelly at the South Florida Sun-Sentinel as he mulled over the possibility that the Dolphins might trade down:

“The thought process is two top 60 players are better than one, and I support this approach considering there’s little difference between the 15th rated player and selection No. 45.”

I support this approach as well and – more to the point – so, seemingly, does Bears general manager Jerry Angelo.  Unless there’s a guy there that the organization really likes (center/guard Mike Pouncey comes to mind) I believe Angelo will gladly pull the trigger to trade back into the second round to pick up extra draft picks.

The Bears are far from the only team that will be looking to trade down in the draft and ordinarily I would consider the odds low that they would find a partner at 29 to do it.  But as the excerpt from Pompei’s column indicates, this isn’t an ordinary year.

There are a lot of teams looking for quarterbacks and with free agency coming late, they won’t know if they’ll be able to get one there.   They won’t be desperate enough to spend a top 15 pick on one of those latter six guys where they would all be a reach.  But if other general managers start trading into the latter half of round one to gobble up quarterbacks, those teams aren’t going to be willing to wait until the early second round to see if their guy is still there.

That means the Bears pick at 29 might be in demand.

Little Mistakes Lead to Big Questions About the Lions

One of the things about the NFL that fascinates me the most is the difference between winning and losing.  The NFC North has provided me with a great example of the latter: the Detroit Lions.  You ask yourself, “Why can’t this organization get over the hump and win championships?  Will this be the year they finally do it?”  Its true that they certainly do have the talent to compete.  But there’s more to winning than talent.

Yesterday I ran across this article by Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.  In it he reported that the Lions were no longer trying to keep their pre-draft visits a secret:

“’The fact is, everybody in the league knows (whom we’re bringing in),’ coach Jim Schwartz said during the NFL meetings last week. ‘So if everybody in the league knows, it really doesn’t matter. And if it’s interesting for the fans, … then I’m all for it.’”

“How nice,” I thought. “But its really non-news since, as Schwartz states, word gets around and the trick is really just a matter of separating significant information from pre-draft smoke and mirrors.”

I was wrong.

Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com reports that when Schwartz says “everybody knows” he really means “everybody knows”:

“Multiple sources have advised PFT that the Lions, intending to send a list of their pre-draft visits to the league as required by rule, sent the list to every team.

“Let’s repeat that.  The Lions were trying to send an e-mail to the league office with a list of pre-draft visits.  And they instead sent the list to the entire league.”

Wait.  It gets better:

“One source said that the same thing happened when quarterback Matthew Stafford was placed on injured reserve during the 2010 season, sending the e-mail to the entire league instead of to the league office.

“In other words, this is the second time in less than four months that the Lions made the same mistake.”

Almost everyone who e-mails heavily has at some point copied people by accident.  It’s very easy to do and most often you wipe your brow and say, “Wow.  I’m glad it wasn’t anything important.”  But you know deep down that if it had really been important, it almost certainly wouldn’t have happened.  That’s because almost any careful person with any degree of common sense triple checks the addresses (and everything else) before sending anything truly sensitive.  Even considering that, mistakes happen.  But to have it happen twice in such a short period of time?

Its not that the Lions are going to be hurt badly by this.  As Schwartz stated to begin with, everyone really does pretty much know.  In the broad scope of life in the NFL, what they did is a little thing.  But it’s the little things that make the difference between winning and losing.

Many football people throughout the league, fans and otherwise, expect the Lions to compete in the NFC North in 2011.  That has included me.  But a full five months before the season (hopefully) starts it already may be time to re-evaluate.

The Lions have a bad habit of finding ways to lose.  It’s not just bad luck.  It’s characteristic.  It comes from incompetence throughout the entire organization extending from sloppy execution on the football field (Calvin Johnson dropping a ball instead of retaining it all the way through the catch) to sloppy execution in the front office (the inability to send a simple e-mail with sensitive information to the league office).  Since Schwartz took over as head coach and Martin Mayhew became the general manager, that incompetence has been deceiving because it hasn’t led to huge blunders.  But mistakes like these should still be an ominous sign for fans everywhere.

UPDATE:  Tom Kowalski at mlive.com comes to the defense of the Lions by pointing out that not all of the pre-draft visits were revealed.  However, Kowalski is clear in that the Lions shouldn’t be completely free of the charge of incompetence in the matter.  Florio’s response is here.

Devin Hester and the Deon Sanders Effect

It seemed like a throw away joke.  But to some Bear fans, this aside from Tom Sorenson at the Charlotte Observer had to have the ominous ring of truth.

Sorenson’s column focuses on what the Panthers will do with the first pick in the draft.  He starts and ends, of course, with Auburn quarterback Cam Newton.  He is, after all, a quarterback with intriguing physical talent and debatable intangible qualities.  But Sorenson considers others as well and this is where the average Bear fan can sit up and take notice:

“Newton is not the only player the Panthers love. There are at least two others, and they, too, played in the SEC. One is Georgia receiver A.J. Green, a certain NFL star. The other is Patrick Peterson, a Louisiana State cornerback and a new friend of Deion Sanders.

“An excellent return man, Peterson said he loves to run back kicks. Then he got advice from Deion. Kick returners can get hurt. Peterson announced he might not love to run back kicks.”

Anyone remember who else is a friend of Deon?

Somewhere in the back of my head I always wondered if Sanders had an undue influence on Bears return man Devin Hester.  It was hard not to notice that Hester’s production tailed off after he befriended Deon and to my eyes Hester definitely looked a lot more tentative in 2008 and 2009 than he had in 2006 and 2007.  Admittedly last year Hester showed better but he’s still not back where he was his first two years in the league.

So here is the question:  Is Peterson the only return man who Deon has been advising to be careful running back kicks?  I really doubt it.