Day: September 29, 2015

With Jared Allen Gone One Way or the Other Willie Young Is the Next Man Up

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune gives 10 thoughts on Seattle’s win over the Bears. He addresses the fact that linebacker Willie Young was a healthy scratch for the game:

“Young was on the field for 19 of the defense’s 57 snaps in Week 2 against the Cardinals and got 21 of 60 in the opener vs. Green Bay, so he had been on the field for 34.2 percent of the snaps. Given the success of the pass rush against the Seahawks, it will be interesting to see how the Bears play the numbers game building the 46-man game-day roster for the Raiders. Clearly some decisions need to be based on special teams.”

This article was written before the Bears sold Jared Allen to the Carolina Panthers. The pass rush was, indeed, improved but Allen didn’t have much of a part in that.

The Bears hope that Young will continue to get better as he recovers from a torn Achilles tendon injury from last season. Getting him and Lamarr Houston, who is gradually coming back from his own injury, playing time was an issue that they obviously wanted to solve. Like Young, Allen didn’t play special teams and its now evident that one reason the Bears made this trade was to get him onto the active roster.

Allen’s trade was obviously the beginning of a fire sale for the Bears and there is a lot of speculation that Young, who also doesn’t appear to fit the base 3-4 scheme that the team runs, will be next on the trading block. But for now at least one alternative is that the Allen trade was an effort to get Young more involved. Assuming Young is still here to see the Raiders come to town, the odds are good that we will at least see him in place of Allen as a defensive end in the 4-3 nickel defense that the Bears run. Whether he stays or not might largely depend upon his performance.

The Truth Behind the Lies

Benjamin Disraeli once said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Bearing that in mind, Ian Rapoport at nfl.com tweets this little “statistical” tidbit:

A later tweet from Rapoport corrected the mistake. Rogers had actually graded at -0.8.  OK, noted.

Many people wonder why, given ridiculous statistics like this, fans and media continue to quote Pro Football Focus. The reason is pretty obvious – they’re the only game in town.

Anyone who writes an opinon about anything knows that opinion will be stronger if they can back it up with something that is, theoretically, objective. Quoting statistics from PFF seems to be one way to do that. The reality is, of course, that PFF’s grades are just as subjective as anything you or I might say based upon our own observations. PFF’s observations are, of course, one more factor to consider. But they shouldn’t carry too much weight. Certainly not as much as fans and media tend to give them.

Nevertheless, don’t expect a decrease in the number of people quoting ridiculous player ratings from them any time soon. Until someone comes along who can offer and alternative, PFF is what you get.

The Once and Future Offense

Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune quotes head coach John Fox on the conservative approach that the Bears took on offense on Sunday:

“‘We need to generate more than zero points to win games,’ Fox said Monday.”

“Asked Monday whether [Jimmy] Clausen earned another start, Fox would not address him specifically.

“‘I didn’t think our whole football team played well enough, obviously, to win the football game,’ he said. ‘I think in a pass-fail system, nobody’s totally pleased. But I don’t think it came down to one guy in that game.'”

The Bears took a ball control, run-first approach to the Seahawks game, one that’s been heavily criticized in some places the media. Many feel that it expressed a “Let’s not lose by too much” attitude rather than “Let’s go out and win”. Clausen has also taken a lot of criticism and most seem to feel that quarterback Jay Cutler would have done significantly better.

The truth is that offensive coordinator Adam Gase put together the only possible game plan that he could under the circumstances. And it probably wouldn’t have changed much even if Cutler had been able to play. This isn’t a defense of Clausen – he missed some throws that he absolutely had to make to give the Bears a better chance on Sunday. But the truth is that he was under siege every time he dropped back to throw and his only real receiver was Eddie Royal, a slot receiver stuck in a misfit role on the outside. Josh Bellamy isn’t talented enough and Marquess Wilson has been worse than a mediocrity who simply can’t get open. No quarterback on the Bears roster was going to succeed throwing the ball under those conditions. There just wasn’t anyone to throw the ball to.

The Bears game plan was to run the ball. Yes, with no points in the first half, you could argue that it wasn’t working. But the benefits of sticking to the run often come in the second half as you wear the defense down. The Bears never got a chance to show that could happen. Poor special teams play put them down by 13 points one play into the second half, a huge deficit in a game like this. Then poor discipline resulted in too many penalties that put the offense into a hole that you can’t run out of. The offense couldn’t hold the ball and the Bears defense was the one to wear down.

The Bears had to play a nearly perfect game to have a chance to win Sunday. They are going to have to do so for good parts of the rest of the season. They’ll get Alshon Jeffery back soon and perhaps Cutler will be back to give them an extra run threat. You might seen more passes to tight ends and the Bears might line up Matt Forte more as a receiver to do more through the air. But what you saw on Sunday is basically what you get with this team. – a heavy, heavy dose of Forte on the ground and a cloud of dust. And under the circumstances I just can’t find it in myself to be too critical of that plan. The team is what it is.