Bears Must Address Defensive Backfield in the Offseason

For all those Bears fans who are cover-2 haters, Andrew Furman at the ultimateny.com comments on the Giants use of it in their disastrous loss to Green Bay:

    “You get success vs weaker teams with these schemes, but when you play against the GOOD QBs, it does not work. Aaron Rodgers picked on the off coverage so often (slants, etc..) that he racked up 225 yds in one half.  (Terrell) Thomas and (Corey) Webster were playing on Pluto while (Greg) Jennings, (James) Jones and Rodgers were playing pitch and catch.  By the time the second half came and we began to see a little more press coverage, it was too little too late.”

    “To the untrained observer, the press coverage was equally unsuccessful.  That is a completely faulty conclusion.  Rodgers and his WRs were forced to make some terrific throws and catches.  They did, but at least they earned it.”

    Contempt for the cover-2 amongst offensive players weeks to be very common.  LaDainian Tomlinson‘s comment after the Jets game was typical (via Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune):

    “‘I knew they were a tough defense,’ Tomlinson said, ‘but they’re predictable. We know the things that you can get against Cover-2 defenses no matter who’s out there. They’re a great defense, but we had a great game plan against this scheme.”’

    We hear this over and over again from opponents.  The cover two is fine.  It really is.  But it needs to be properly mixed with other defensive schemes to make it work.

    In particular the New England game and, to a lesser extent, the Jets game taught us that this is the case and, to their credit, though they still play too much of the zone, the Bears have tried to do mix it up.  But the problem is that they aren’t built for anything but the cover two and they don’t execute other schemes very well.  For instance, most of the time when the Bears play man-to-man the opposition’s worst wide receiver is better than the Bears worst defensive back.  That’s the simplest form of a mismatch.

    The comments above are yet another indication that the Bears are going to have to look toward improving their defensive backfield in the draft.  They are beyond the point where they can just attempt to load up on defensive linemen while ignoring everything else.

    Jets Victory New Bears Signature Win

    Steve Rosenbloom at the Chicago Tribune describes the up and down nature of the game yesterday:

      “I thought the game was over early when the Bears pounded the Jets all over the place. Did it with all their units, too.”

      “Then I thought it was over when the Jets scored three straight touchdowns, keyed by Tim Jennings’ dropped interception after Jay Cutler threw a pick six.

      “Then I thought it was over when the Bears seized on a failed fake punt — what was Rex Ryan thinking about? Don’t answer — with a bomb to Johnny Knox followed by Devin Hester’s big punt return and eventual TD catch to the put the Bears up 31-24.

      “But the Jets came back. The Jets always came back. But so did the Bears.”

      And that’s the key.

      The Bears have been criticized repeatedly for beating up on bad and wounded teams.  Fans would say, “Yeah, but the had to play with their third string quarterback.”  “Yeah, but this guy was injured.”  “Yeah but (insert excuse here).”  Up until now the Bears signature win was the one against the Eagles.  But even with that game the Eagles came out flat and didn’t play well.

      That wasn’t the case yesterday.  Yesterday the Bears played a good football team who played like a good football team.  They came through with their best performance to date.

      If they want to go deep into the playoffs, the Bears need to keep improving.  This was a very, very good example of how that is continuing to happen and if it does, no one is going to want to play them in January.

      Hester Effect Another Example of Why Numbers Don’t Tell the Story

      Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune highlights the role that Devin Hester played in the Bears victory over the Jets:

      “Jay Cutler threw three touchdown passes.

      “Johnny Knox caught two of them.

      “Chris Harris had two takeaways.

      “Matt Forte averaged 5.9 yards per carry.

      “But none of the “stars of the game” impacted the Bears’ 38-34 victory over the Jets more than Devin Hester.”

      Pompei points out that despite good but not great numbers, Hester impacted the game as much or more than any of these players.  The Jets couldn’t get away from him.  They could kick it out of bounds, they could kick it short, they could fake a punt, they could accidentally kick it to him.  Anyway you look at it the result was superb field position that the Bears offense took advantage of all game.  Jets punter Steve Weatherford explained part of the problem via Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times:

      “Unless he’s not able to get to the ball, I know it’s coming back.  That’s why it’s so tough to punt up here. That’s why he’s so effective. It’s windy. It’s nasty. It’s slippery out there. It was pretty muddy — you’re not going to hit every punt perfect.’’

      Bears head coach Lovie Smith put it well in Pompei’s article:

      “They did a good job of trying to keep the ball away from him.  But it’s hard to just get a ball up on the 40-yard line or continue to try to kick it out of bounds and end up with a 10-yard punt. You have to eventually play.”

      I’ve heard fans and even media say over and over again that if a player’s ability doesn’t show up in the statistics, you can generally conclude that he is overrated.  The numbers don’t lie.  But Hester is a prime example of why numbers do lie.  They lie like dogs, especially in the heads of people who who either don’t understand them or, worse yet, people who use them to purposely deceive.

      Like Julius Peppers‘ impact on the Bears defense, Hester’s role in the win over the Jets can’t be described easily with numbers.  That’s why statistics are so useless in football.  You have to use your eyes if you want to see what’s going on.

      Easy to Criticize Jets Fake Punt in Hindsight

      David Haugh‘s attitude in his column for the Tribune toward Rex Ryan‘s decision to fake punt in the second quarter seems to be typical.  He thinks it was a bad decision and it certainly was in that it didn’t work.

        “‘They wouldn’t put (Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez) in the game and punt the ball, you’re not going to make the starting quarterback block,’ (Bears special teams player Rashied) Davis said. ‘They did what I thought they would do. Maybe they thought we’d panic.’

        “Or maybe Ryan’s arrogance in thinking he couldn’t possibly guess wrong loosened the Jets’ grip on a winnable game in a New York minute.

        “‘It could have been,’ Davis said. ‘From watching ‘Hard Knocks,’ (on HBO), he seems like an arrogant guy.”’

        But I’m not inclined to criticize Ryan too much for being bold.  His defense was performing well and he didn’t want to kick to Devin Hester.  Seen without the benefit of hindsight, I didn’t have a big problem with the decision.

        Having said that, as implied by Davis, perhaps Ryan or one of his coaches should be worried about how they ran the play.  It’s evident that the Bears picked something up on tape.  Vaughn McClure reports for the Chicago Tribune:

        “(Jets utility man Brad) Smith was told the Bears called out, ‘Fake,’ before the play.

        “‘You could tell they kind of knew,’ he said. ‘They get paid too.”’

        Singletary Firing an Indication that Offseason Could Be Interesting After All

        San Francisco 49ers head coach and former Bear great Mike Singletary has been fired last night as head coach after a disappointing loss to the St. Louis Rams.  The game cost the 49ers a spot in the playoffs.  Singletary took the loss, and presumably his firing, in a typical stand up fashion:

        “You know what, I’ll put it this way: a personal failure. I’m the head coach of this team and obviously wanted us to do better, felt that we could do better.  There are some obvious questions that I hoped would be answered as the season went on, and obviously were not answered. When that happens, you end up out of the playoffs.

        “I take full responsibility for every unanswered question.”

        A couple points here.  First this is a lesson for all fans that cry so passionately for the days of explosive former Bear head coach Mike Ditka.  Don’t get me wrong.  You can be a successful emotional head coach.  But there has to be moor to it than that.  Otherwise its just day after day of someone haranguing you.  The indications in the media are that’s part of what happened here.

        Second, this looks to me like a race to Jon Gruden.  During an interview on the NFL Network before Saturday’s game, Cowboy’s owner Jerry Jones strongly hinted that he was looking at Gruden.  I’d be willing to bet that the 49ers are too and once it was clear that Singletary wasn’t going to survive, they fired him immediately rather than waiting a week.  They want to talk to Gruden and, failing that, other big name people to run the organization.  49ers owner Jed York didn’t say that directly, of course.  But I consider his statement about paying off the rest of Singletary’s contract as providing a strong hint:

        “Money is no object.  I mean, our object is to win the Super Bowl, year in and year out be there and compete for Super Bowls. We’re going to make sure we get this right.”

        I was thinking that this off season would be relatively quiet with a work stoppage looming, thinking that the owners would be hesitant to pay two coaching staffs not to work.  If York’s statement can be taken at face value, that might not be the case.  It could be an interesting offseason after all.

        Game Comments: Bears Vs. Jets, December 26, 2010

        Offense

        1. The Bears came out running and the Jets came out playing aggressive man-to-man defense, crowding the line and blitzing a lot.  The Bears struggled and their wide receivers just weren’t getting open in the short passing game.  The Jets won the first half in this respect.
        2. Late in the first half the Bears stopped running the ball quite as much, which I thought was a mistake. On the other hand they started throwing to Matt Forte out of the back field which was extremely effective.
        3. Jay Cutler’s mobility was a great plus against the Jets blitz and he was constantly running out of trouble and throwing it down field.
        4. On a related note, Cutler’s accuracy was frequently off in the first half and that hurt the Bears (see the first interception when Cutler threw behind Earl Bennett).  Though he’s usually good on the move it didn’t get better until the second half when he was able to stay in the pocket.
        5. And speaking of that, the Bear offensive line did as good a job as they have all year protecting Cutler in the second half.
        6. Kudos also to Cutler for throwing with more anticipation this game in response to the blitz.  He was getting the ball out of his hand quickly in response to the blitz as the receivers adjusted.  He still held the ball too long on occasion when trying to make a play but not as much as he has been.
        7. Matt Forte’s first touchdown came off of a wonderful block by the full back (Greg Olsen?).
        8. There were times when the Jets defense was too aggressive and it hurt them.  For instance, they badly lost contain on Cutler’s touchdown in the second quarter.  I’m wondering if more misdirection in the ground game would have worked if the Bears had done more of it.
        9. The Bears did a nice job of adjusting at half time this game.  Realizing that the short passing game in response to the Jets blitz and their aggressive man coverage wasn’t working, they started throwing deep to great effect.  Touchdowns by Johnny Knox and Devin Hester resulted.
        10. If the Bears threw at Darrelle Revis all game, I didn’t see it.

        Defense

        1. The Bears came out blitzing and loading the box. Generally speaking they mixed it up with a lot of cover two and even some quarters coverage. But whenever they had to play man-to-man they got burned.  The Jets responded with a lot of sort passes.  The defensive backs played too far off of the Jets receivers and there were large gaps for Mark Sanchez to throw in to.  Ultimately the Bears couldn’t handle the Jet passing game in the first half and it looked like pitch and catch at times out there.  They did better in the second half with some tight coverage.
        2. The Jets attacked the edges of the Bear defense in the running game.  It was also very effective.
        3. Tommie Harris made got good penetration on the first defensive play of the game. How unfortunate that this was the exception to the rule.  The Bears had a lot of trouble getting pressure on Mark Sanchez this game.  Even the blitz wasn’t getting to him most of the game.
        4. Santonio Holmes really thought they should have challenged his fumble in the first quarter but it looked like the ball was out before he was down to me.
        5. There was some bad tackling out there but the real problem that the Bears had with stopping the run was over pursuit.  This used to be b Bear weakness but they’ve done well with it this year up until now.  Hopefully it isn’t rearing its ugly head at the wrong time.
        6. On a related, Lance Briggs overran the play on the Jets first touchdown.  Indeed, it wasn’t a good game over all for the Bears linebackers.
        7. Tim Jennings also had a bad game.  He dropped an interception and he struggled in coverage.  He lost contain on at least on long run around end.
        8. Danieal Manning bit on a short route in the third quarter, resulting in a Santonio Holmes touchdown.  Fortunately Chris Harris didn’t do the same thing on the Jets last offensive play, intercepting the ball.

        Miscellaneous

        1. I watched this game in a sports bar in St. Charles, Missouri.  It was good to be among so many Bear fans.  This must be how the Bears feel while on the road.
        2. Per the Chicago Tribune‘s Brad Biggs’ Twitter, the last time a game was played on a Tuesday was 1946.  The Vikings and the Eagles will now be doing it this week thanks to a blizzard in Philadelphia.
        3. I sure do wish the Bear offensive line would cut down on the penalties.
        4. The ball was dead all day, causing kicks to be short and giving both teams good field position, especially the Bears.
        5. Heaven knows Robbie Gould has earned the right to do it but I’d have appreciated it if he had finally missed in a game which was less close.
        6. The Bears dropped a couple easy interceptions this game (Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman were two culprits).  That can’t be allowed to happen.  I’m not complaining too much but they should have had more turnovers.
        7. There weren’t too many drops this game (not counting the Bear defensive backs) but its hard not to notice that Knox dropped another one.
        8. The Bear defense was a disappointment today.  Although they still played a lot of cover two, the game plan required them to really mix it up and I don’t think they responded well.  There wasn’t much pressure on Sanchez most of the game and they didn’t play with the needed discipline.  The man defense wasn’t as bad as it was against the Patriots but it still needs a lot of work and both Jennings and D.J. Moore are weaknesses.
        9. This was a great game for the Bear offense.  The offensive line did a very nice job of protecting CUtler in the second half.  That was a good team they beat today and they played well.  It was about as good a performance as you can reasonably expect.

        Peyton Manning Is Getting Some Help and Other News

        Bears

        • Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune gives us some insight into the way to beat quarterback Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense:

        “The best game plan against him is a diverse one that takes away the gimme throws. He can be rattled with pressure, but he also can struggle to put the ball in tight windows versus zone coverage. The key is to keep him off balance.”

        Taking away the gimme throws and playing zone at the same time is quite a challenge.  As Pompei suggests, we’ll probably see the Bears mix it up.

        Elsewhere

          “The signing of Colts RB Dominic Rhodes was a “much-needed shot in the arm,” according to QB Peyton Manning. Rhodes looked good in his first significant action in Week 15, spelling Donald Brown with nine carries for 26 yards, one reception for four yards and a terrific block on blitzing Jaguars LB Daryl Smith. Word is Rhodes’ biggest contribution to the team could come from his contagious energy and excitement that we hear was noticeably present from the moment he walked onto the practice field after being re-signed.”

          Any help that Manning gets is a plus.  In my opinion, he’s been trying to carry that team by doing it all himself.  But even he can’t do that.  Here’s hoping he’s able to relax a bit more going into the playoffs.

          “The Vikings could bring QB Rhett Bomar back next season as someone to throw into the mix. Brett Favre won’t be back, Tarvaris Jackson is a free agent, and Joe Webb could be moved back to receiver, the position he was drafted to play. Bomar, who had been toiling on the Giants’ practice squad until the Vikings signed him, once was a top prospect at Oklahoma before transferring and was a fifth-round draft pick, so he might have some ability worth investigating in the offseason.”

          Bomar appears to me to have the physical tools.  But I can’t imagine a scenario where the Vikings don’t draft a quarterback.  And they’d be fools if they didn’t play it safe by looking for at least one veteran.

          “A former Super Bowl winning coach turned broadcaster not named Bill Cowher might be coming back to the NFL next year. There are some rumblings former Ravens coach Brian Billick could get back in. One team that could make sense for Billick is the 49ers. He grew up in California, was drafted by the 49ers and worked in the team’s public relations office before he got into coaching.”

          Billick is a former public relations man and I think he might be better off as a talker in his current position as color commentator than as a football coach.  He was hired as an offensive guru by the Baltimore Ravens but went to the Super Bowl riding a great defense and a average to poor offense.

          One Final Thought

          “Maybe Gunther Cunningham will do it”

          LOL.

          A Committee of One Gets Things Done

          After quarterback Eli Manning called a players-only team meeting following the Giants collapse against the Eagles, Sam Farmer wrote a column appearing in the Chicago Tribune on the effectiveness of such meetings.  The conclusion was pretty much “not very”.  The while thing reminded me of the old quote from Robert Copeland:  “To get something done, a committee should consist of no more than three men, two of whom are absent.”

          Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman provided a similar assessment:

          “To me, they’re not very productive, especially when you give too many people a platform to speak.”

          Former Oakland Raider Tim Brown also agreed:

          “Once we had one guy stand up who was barely a special-teams player, and he decided he wanted to talk in a meeting.  He just went on and on and on. Finally, people had to talk over him just to get him to shut up.”

          As an academic I spend a lot of time in committee meetings.  They can be productive in that they do keep people informed of what’s going on.  But I’ve never seen a group of 3 or more people actually make a decision in such a meeting in my life.  Usually if anything gets done there’s one person leading the group who has the vision and conveys that with the opportunity to tune the plan from there.  If that’s what Manning did this week, I applaud him.  But more likely that kind of leadership has to come from the coaching staff.

          The real bottom line was provided by former Redskin quarterback Joe Theismann:

          “To be honest with you, the way that Eli has turned the ball over this year, a private meeting might have been more effective than a team meeting.  This is one of those meetings where you walk in the bathroom, you look in the mirror, and you start to talk to that guy.”

          If everyone did that, the Giants would be a better team.  And the world would be a much better place.

          A Christmas Miracle and Other News

          Bears

          Elsewhere

          “’That’s really been a big part of the problem around here,’ Portis said. ‘People start playing for safety. So it’s like, ‘I gotta play safe and sound, instead of going out on the limb and making plays.’ . . . If a guy scared in the locker room, he gonna always play scared.’”

          • Andrew Brandt at the National Football Post takes a look at the current state of the collective bargaining negotiations between the NFL and the NFLPA.  His prediction is not good news for those fans and players who don’t like the thought of an 18 game season as much as I do:

          “Despite the apparent contradiction to the player safety initiatives, the 18-game season will happen as the complaints will be drowned out by the pronouncements of labor peace for the foreseeable future.”

          “I called Donovan on the phone, mentioned I wanted to have a conversation with him to find out what this was all about,” Kyle Shanahan said Friday, according to Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post.   “And when I talked to Donovan [on Thursday], he said he didn’t say any of that.

          “I’m like, ‘Well yeah, your agent did, which to me is you.’ And he said he didn’t agree with any of that, those words didn’t come out of his mouth, he didn’t tell his agent that stuff.  So all I can go off is what Donovan tells me. And we’ve never had a confrontation all year, never had an argument, everything’s been good.”

          This is pretty much just cowardice on McNabb’s part.  I’m glad Shanahan is calling him out.

          “It was a Christmas Eve miracle!”

          Perhaps he was being a tad sarcastic.

          The shoulder was a welcome distraction from head coach Rex Ryan‘s personal difficulties.

          “Rex Ryan is a believer in “Homecoming Heroes,” a term he uses for players returning to their home cities or college towns performing above their standard level, but he will not allow himself to think of the Chicago area, where he spent his high school years.

          “‘The teacher had it in for me,’ Ryan said. ‘Lots of C’s and D’s.'”

          One Final Thought

          Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com highlights the dichotomy in performing well enough to be considered for head coaching positions in the NFL.

          “It’s unclear how hot of a candidate (Bears offensive coordinator, Mike) Martz is or will be.  Much of it depends on how his offense will perform in the 2010 postseason — and whether the available jobs will be filled before Chicago’s run has ended.”

          Football Still King of Television

          Bill Carter at The New York Times highlights the NFL’s performance for the on television networks:

            “Of the 20 highest-rated telecasts of any kind so far this television season, 18 have been N.F.L. games on CBS, NBC or Fox. In terms of the best of 2010, nothing else comes close. Of the 50 highest-rated programs during the calendar year, 27 have been N.F.L. games, including 8 of the top 10.”

            But for all of that I find it interesting that football is nothing more than a loss leader:

            “None of that means the networks make money from the games. Rights fees are huge (the league takes in about $4 billion a year in television money) and losses for the networks are routine. But no network is complaining. The games provide audience circulation like nothing else the networks can buy, and they use the once-a-week mass assemblage to promote their other programs.”

            Scott Miller at the National Football Post thinks that the high ratings are driven by fantasy football and gambling.  He cites some interesting statistics from CNN and CNBC:

            Approximately 29 million Americans play fantasy football, and in 2009, the industry was estimated at $800 million.

            Plus, the NFL alone sees $80-100 billion in illegal wagering per year, according to a CNBC investigation entitled “The Big Business of Illegal Gambling.” That doesn’t include every bet that’s placed legally in Las Vegas sportsbooks.

            Regardless, I think the networks would do better to keep the NFL but at the same time to takes some chances and invest in some original programming.  No sport of any kind is going to help ratings if your new programs amount to another doctor/cop/lawyer show.  I can see the executives in their meeting rooms now:  “I know!  How about CSI Mauritania?”

            Blah.