Month: January 2011

To Blitz or Not to Blitz? That is the Question for the Seahawks.

Mike Sando at ESPN recently broke down the defensive stats for the Seattle Seahawks while pointing out the dilemma that they face on Sunday against the Bears:

“Back in that Week 6 game at Soldier Field, Seattle rushed at least one defensive back 44.7 percent of the time, a season high. The team recorded five of its six sacks on these plays, one reason the Bears failed to convert even once in 12 third-down opportunities. Seattle sent five-plus pass-rushers 55.3 percent of the time during its 23-20 victory, the second-highest percentage for Seattle in a game this season.”

“The Seahawks sent four or fewer rushers 89.7 percent of the time against St. Louis in Week 17 and 91.7 percent of the time against New Orleans in the wild-card round. The Seahawks hadn’t sent four or fewer rushers so frequently in any game through Week 16. The 91.7 percent figure was the highest for any NFL team in any game during the regular season.”

So you are left with Sando’s question.  “What will Seattle do?”

The Bears have to be wondering the same thing.  According to Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune, offensive line coach Mike Tice, at least, thinks the Seahawks will blitz:

“They’re going to have to find a way to get to the NFC Championship game. If you’re playing the Bears, then you have to test them and see how much better they’ve gotten.”

Its easy for Tice to say that.  Most people in his position need to plan for the worst and then be happy if it doesn’t materialize.  Putting pressure on the line through constant blitzing would be his worst nightmare whether the line handles it well or not.

But I think may be right in this case.  The Bears line is supposedly a lot different from the one that faced the Seahawks the first time around.  The Bears thought the film of that game was pretty bad (via Sean Jensen and Neil Hayes at the Chicago Sun-Times):

“‘It was kind of tough to watch,’ tight end Greg Olsen said. ‘We weren’t where we thought we were, even at the time.'”

Indeed, according to McClure, Tice decided not to show the whole film to the linemen this week:

“‘I kind of moved on, the game was so bad,’ Tice said of the regular-season meeting between the teams. ‘I looked at 19 plays with the line the other day and decided I couldn’t do that to them. It was that bad.'”

Well, here’s hoping he at least showed them the film of the Packers game.  The Bears consistently broke down against the blitz in that last regular season game, especially the delayed blitz where a linebacker hesitates for a second and then shoots in.

If you are the Seahawks you have to test the Bears line, at least to some extent.  You have to find out if that was an aberration or the result of a line that really hasn’t come together quite as well as everyone is saying it has (its probably a combination of the two).

My guess is that you look for Seattle to threaten the blitz a lot to try to confuse the Bears offensive line.  How often they actually bring pressure will probably depend upon how successful they are.  But just threatening may be enough to keep them uneasy on their feet and thinking about the possibility.

Marshawn Lynch or Mario? And Other Points of View

Bears

“’I was on the phone for a minute or so with Starks when [general manager Jerry] Angelo walked in my office and told me he had changed his mind and was drafting [quarterback Dan] LeFevour,’ Gabriel wrote. ‘I put Starks on hold, and then said to Angelo that [contract negotiator Cliff] Stein already had talked to the agent and I had the player on the phone. We couldn’t do business like that. He said he was sorry, but he decided he wanted LeFevour and the card had been turned in.

“’I then had to tell the player (a player that I had developed a good relationship with over the previous two years) that in fact we were not drafting him. Hearing a kid go from being extremely excited to silence was not easy. It was the most embarrassing moment I had experienced while scouting. In my mind everything is about integrity, and I felt our integrity had been damaged.’”

“’The Bears won a lot of games this year, but didn’t get a lot of respect,’ said John Avello, director of race and sports book operations for the Wynn Resort in Las Vegas. “I don’t see them losing this game. The only X factor for me is (Bears quarterback Jay) Cutler. He can make some bad decisions. He doesn’t have to do that in a game like this.

Exactly.  If Cutler tries to do too much on the big stage, it will be the surest path to disaster for the Bears.

“[Matt] Forte still managed 91 yards on 15 carries in that defeat, and he carries the momentum of averaging 5.8 yards per attempt over his last three games. But [Chester] Taylor, the team’s designated short-yardage runner, has to be more productive, especially against a Seattle team that ranked 21st in the league against the run.

“’I don’t know if I have to do anything differently,’ said Taylor, who has played in four career playoff games. ‘I just have to make a play whenever I get the ball. That’s it.’’’

And, of course, he has to hope the coaches haven’t called a time out when he does.

Elsewhere

  • Why the Colts really lost.  I still think she should be a linebacker.
  • Congratulations to former Bear Ron Rivera on being hired as head coach of the Carolina Panthers.  The Bears will face Carolina next season at Soldier Field.

  • Rivera will be using a 4-3 scheme, presumably similar to what he used with the Bears, rather than the 3-4 he coached in San Diego.
  • Tedy Bruschi says that Bill Belichick actually respects Rex Ryan.  Whatever… :

  • Marshawn Lynch’s run was more like something you’d see in a popular video game:

  • Former Bears wide receiver coach and current Kansas City head coach Todd Haley may call the plays next year.  That should help him attract a competent offensive coordinator.

One Final Thought

Fred Mitchell at the Chicago Tribune overheard this:

“New Cubs pitcher Matt Garza on WGN-AM 720’s ‘Sports Night’ when he was asked about people who say he is too emotional: ‘When you care about something as much as I care about pitching, you get emotional. I don’t think of it as emotion. I think of it as passion. I’m very passionate for what I do because I love what I do. People who love their jobs are very passionate about their jobs. They are going to pour their heart and soul into their job. That’s the way that I feel about it.’”

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Knox, Receivers Need to Find a Way to Get Off the Line, Beat Coverage

Andrew Seligman, writing for the Associated Press, quotes Jay Cutler on receiver Johnny Knox in an article focusing on whether the Bears have the talent that they need there:

“Knox emerged as the primary deep threat with 51 catches for 960 yards, including 17 for 20 yards or more.

“’He’s just becoming more of a complete receiver,’ quarterback Jay Cutler said. ‘He’s kind of one of those guys you can count on. If he’s got one-on-one, he’s going to win. … He’s done all year when his number is called, he’s in the right spot.’”

No he hasn’t.  The last regular season game, Knox did not perform to expectations.

First let me say up front that all of the pass catchers for the Bears, including the running backs, should be commended for one thing:  they aren’t dropping balls.  This will most assuredly kill any decent offensive team and I’m pretty sure its eventually going to kill the Packers.

But if the game against the Packers was any example of what’s to come, the Bears need help at receiver.  They got physically dominated by the Packers defensive backs and I’d expect them to see the same plan used against them in the playoffs before we’re done.

It will be interesting to see if receivers coach Darryl Drake can develop a plan to allow the Bears receivers to get off the line of scrimmage and to thrive against that kind of press coverage.  The presence of the bigger Earl Bennett will help.  And I’m guessing that Mike Martz will be dialing up calls for big plays.  It will be interesting to see if the receivers step up when that happens.  If they don’t, the Bears will know at least one area where they need help in the offseason.

Staying Sane the Goal on Sunday

Mike Greenberg at ESPN talks to former NFL defensive lineman Mike Golic about what its like to be a fan of a playoff team in this humorous exchange:

“Paralyzed” might be taking it a bit too far.  Maybe…

But generally this is accurate and, though its heightened for the playoffs, I have to say I identify with Greenberg’s reaction.

Without the Bears on the field, Sunday was a noticeably stress free day.  It could have been the alcohol.  But more likely it was simply the fact that I wasn’t worried about a game.  No sitting in front of the TV taking notes, worrying about whether Jay Cutler would try to do too much or how the offensive line was going to break down in the first half this time.  When its over I find myself exhausted.

There’s a kind of insanity that comes over fans when watching their team.  When I watch the Bears I zoom in, completely focusing on the game.  Everything around me pretty much disappears.  I’ve had non-fans over to watch games and more often than not you can see the look of startlement come over their faces when they see the change come over me.  Or that maybe that’s because I’m screaming at the TV.

Whatever.

The point is that I love football.  But sometimes being a fan is really stressful.  Something about that doesn’t seem right.

Maybe I should “have a drink” more often.

Seahawks Peaking at the Right Time for the Right Reason

Want to know why the Seahawks are such a dangerous team?

Danny O’Neil at the Seattle Times implies that the Seahawks are playing their best football because they’ve had their backs against the wall the last few weeks:

“‘When it finally came down to that last game against St. Louis, we finally played our best football,’ coach Pete Carroll said. ‘I’m not real proud of that. I would have rather seen that for all the right reasons earlier on, but I’m having fun with it, enjoying it.

“‘We’re going to see how far we can ride it.'”

Julius Peppers would seem to agree (via Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times):

“’They’re used to being in that spot [in the playoffs],’ Peppers said. ‘They didn’t have a great season recordwise, but they’re used to being in the playoffs.

“’They played like they were.’”

They did indeed.  Seattle played what amounted to their second playoff game in a row Sunday.  They played fast and hard like they knew what they were in for.  They were far from mistake-free and the still need to play better.  But they knew that their football lives were at stake.

This is why fans are underestimating the Seahawks so badly.  Most understand that they are peaking at the right time and that’s what you want to do.  But they don’t account for what’s more important, that the Seahawks are peaking for the right reasons.

The Seahawks are responding under pressure.  And sometimes the more pressure there is with this kind of team, the better they respond.  And going on the road against a Bears team which is decidedly better than the wounded Saints, the stakes will never be higher.  The Bears need to match that intensity or they are going to find themselves sitting and watching TV like the rest of us.

Mike Williams Is a Bad Matchup for the Bears

Fred Mitchell at the Chicago Tribune quotes cornerback Tim Jennings on the problems that the Bears defense face with Seattle wide receiver Mike Williams, who ripped them for 10 catches for 123 yards last time they played:

“For me it’s real tough, a guy like that.  But that’s one thing about this defense. If it was just a lot of man-to-man and no help over the top, it would be a problem. But for us as a defense, we play a lot of Cover-2 and Cover-3, we’ve got guys running to the football.”

This is the obvious problem with Jennings and why the Bears need to be worried about their cornerbacks going forward.  Jennings is good in the Bears base defense but his height puts him at a disadvantage whenever he has to handle anyone one-on-one.  He’s 5’8″.  Williams is 6’5″.

Look for the Bears to have taller cornerback Charles Tillman following Williams around the field and look for the Seahawks to be doing everything they can to get Williams into a mismatch whenever the Bears are in a zone defense.  I’d be surprised if he didn’t spend a lot of time in the slot.  It should be interesting.

Why the Bears Missed Briggs Against Seattle and Other Points of View

Bears

  • The Chicago Tribune‘s Brad Biggs gives insight into some offensive line technique via coach Mike Tice:

“Really, just looking at the footwork of Chris [Williams], there were a couple of times (against the Seahawks) where he spread his feet and never stepped or anything.

“I think it’s that technique ‘A guy is on me real quick,’ instead of him stepping. That takes time and repetition. We’ve had weeks to repeat the technique and do it over and over to where now he’s better. He still has a moment or two, but he’s really improved.”

  • Pisa Tinoisamoa comments on the absence of Lance Briggs from the game the last time the Bears played Seattle.  Replacement Brian Iwuh had a good game with 10 tackles.  Via Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times:

“You can’t even really say [the Bears lost] because he didn’t play.  But you know if he would have, it would have been a different outcome, at least defensively, because you can count on Lance Briggs for a couple of game-changing plays.

“That’s what we missed.”

  • Trent Dilfer at ESPN says about what the Bears need to do to beat the Seahawks:

Elsewhere

  • The Seahawks might be missing concussed linebacker Lofa Tatupu, who was concussed in Sunday’s game.  Coach Pete Carroll says he’s encouraged by Tatupu’s progress but given the delicacy with which concussions are being handled by the league, I’m going to be mildly surprised if he returns quickly.  If he doesn’t pass the necessary tests, it will be a double whammy as the Seahawks will move David Hawthorn to middle linebacker from the weak side to replace him.  Via Danny O’Neil at the Seattle Times.
  • Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb wants to start or be traded.  Adam Schefter at ESPN doesn’t sound optimistic either will happen:

  • Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com gives us even more reasons to be grateful that the Bears are owned by Virginai McCaskey rather than Dolphins owner Stephen Ross.  What a mess.
  • Dilfer says that the Falcons need to make the Packers pay for being overly aggressive:

One Final Thought

The Raiders are hiring.  I’ve got this funny feeling that the Raiders are going to be talking to Jon Gruden about returning to the Bay area.  I can hear your laughter.  But it’s still not going away…

A Different Seattle Team Is Coming to Town This Time Around

Mike Mulligan at the Chicago Sun-Times comments on the Seahawk victory over the Saints:

“[Matt] Hasselbeck used veteran guile, sleight of hand and 6-5 wide receiver Mike Williams (10 receptions, 123 yards) to terrorize the Bears. His description of the victory against the Saints could have applied to the earlier Bears game.

‘‘’We got a rhythm going, with pass protection, and I was using my cadence pretty good, and quick counts and sort of quick counts, normal count, hard count, double count,’ Hasselbeck said. ‘Using all those things in our toolbox.’’’

The difference is, of course, that Seattle is now bringing a running game to town in the form of Marshawn Lynch.  The Seahawks have the look of a much more balanced team this time around – the type of offense that often gives the Bears trouble.  The Bears are going to have to adjust if they want to win in the playoffs as pointed out by defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli via Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune:

“The pace and tempo are going to pick up now.  That’s a fun part of this thing. They understand it. They know the importance of details and execution. We’ve got some elite players who play as a team.”

Nevertheless they lack playoff experience on the offensive side of the ball.   While we sit and sounder whether the Bears can adjust, we already know that they Seahawks can.  They dialed it up and played noticeably faster Saturday.

The Seahawks still don’t exactly execute like the Patriots.  And the Bears will be a lot different offensively compared to the last time they played them, as well.  But nevertheless the Seahawks are a dangerous team.

I’m not saying the underdog Seahawks will win.  But I’d take the points.

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Browns Provide Blue Print to Beat the Patriots

A friend (who is rather anti-Bear) and I were debating the merits of the Green Bay Packers when he brought up this observation:  the Packers are team in the NFC playoff picture with the best chance to beat the Patriots.  An anonymous quote from the Audibles feature at Pro Football Weekly reminded me of his comment:

“If you want to beat the Patriots, you need to look at the job Cleveland did on them. The one thing (Eric) Mangini definitely knows is how to beat New England. They had a phenomenal game plan. I’ve never seen Tom Brady so confused. They had 11 guys standing, and (Brady) had no idea who was coming and who was dropping. No team is good playing from behind, especially if the offense can run at you. Colt McCoy made a few plays early, and (Peyton) Hillis ran at them. That is the winning formula to beat New England. It’s a copycat league, and you have to know where you could pull from.”

Defensively this is exactly what the Packers did to the Patriots and they almost beat them.  They run a look with only two down linemen and everyone else stands around so you can’t tell who is coming from where.  It’s problematic but it also looks to me like the type of defense that you could beat with the run if you had the right blocking scheme.

Frankly I don’t see anyone in the NFC beating the Patriots in a Super Bowl matchup.  But I said that the last time they were there and they lost.  It will be interesting to see if more teams do, in fact, copy the Cleveland game plan and what the Patriots do to try to stop it.

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Packers Rip Off Shareholders and Other News

Bears

“I don’t know why they keep bringing up me. This was 38 years ago that I played.”

“We have the best offensive line coach in the league, period.”

‘‘’If I look up right guard in the dictionary, I see a picture of Lance Louis,’ Tice said in August.”

“Tice proved adept at not only acknowledging a mistake but correcting it — both rare commodities at Halas Hall in recent years. It took the Bears four years to realize Mark Anderson wasn’t a starting defensive end. It took Tice four games to realize Louis wasn’t a starting right guard.”

“I never thought anyone would say this, especially in Chicago, but go Pack go!”

Elsewhere

  • Tom Kowalsi at mlive.com breaks down the Lions roster.  Big needs in the back seven of the defense should tell us what direction they’ll go in free agency and the draft.
  • Here’s the Detroit Lions season wrapup with Brian VanOchten and Bill Simonson at mlive.com.  Some good points made here including the fact that the Cleveland Browns ended on a winning streak last year (though the Lions are probably different):

  • This week’s Audibles at Pro Football Weekly was particularly good.  Here’s yet another astute observation:

“Coaches remember what a player did. Personnel guys are supposed to be on top of coaches to remember what (players) can do. Every team has different power structures. What you have to realize with coaches is that very few of them can separate the emotion.”

  • Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh gets a few warm comments from the Kansas City fans  yesterday after their win:

“You can put Aaron Rodgers in that elite quarterback class. He’s got his first playoff victory.”

  • Mike Lupica echos my thoughts on Jim Harbaugh‘s hiring for ESPN:

One Final Thought

Another reason to hate the Packers as they blatantly rip off loyal shareholders:

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