Category: NFL Draft

The Price of Spectacle and the Spectacle of Price

The Chicago Tribune thinks that its hard to justify all of the trouble that having the NFL Draft in the city will bring. I’m having a hard time getting in line with their thinking.

What the Tribune isn’t considering is the city’s attitude towards professional football. You can rumble around about the Cubs, the White Sox and the Bulls but when you bottom line it, this is a football town. You don’t have to spend much time here to understand that most of the city breaths it all year around. Sure most of us won’t get in to see the actual draft. But the event itself with the festival in Grant Park is going to be a spectacle that’s going to bring far more entertainment to the populace of the city than the annual Jazz Fest or Taste of Chicago.

Sure, you’ll get south side and west side officials complaining about the money spent here that could be spent on the cities poorer neighborhoods. Jessie Jackson is due to be on camera any day now. I get it.  It’s his job to use events like this to highlight such issues just as its the Tribune’s job to play watch dog – and thus to sell newspapers – by pointing out that the city isn’t going to come away scott-free from the deal.  I’m sure the media is about to be deluged with economist after economist who will question whether the city will get back what it puts in. But the truth is that relatively few people are going to care that much. Far fewer than there would be normally for any other event.

City officials were drooling all over themselves to bring the Olympics here, something that would have cost a great deal more money and trouble with a great deal more risk for lost government revenue. They did that despite the fact that the majority of city residents weren’t in favor of having it here. So how much more should they try to bring something here that the people actually want?

Playing GM Isn’t As Easy As It Looks on TV

English prime minister Benjamin Disraeli once said, “How much easier it is to be critical than to be correct.” The man wasn’t joking.

I’ve been participating in a 4 round mock draft with a group of fans associated with ESPN’s Football Today podcast. The results have provided a great deal of insight which I thought would be interesting to share.

First a little about the draft and the fans participating. There are 32 representatives, one from every team. Most of them (including me) were required to write an essay on the state of their team and then you had to be chosen based upon what you wrote to get the job. I was initially the runner up but it was essentially a tie and the original Bears representative bailed out so I was happy to step in. Given that history, you can see that most of these fans know what they’re doing. In line with that, for the most part the picks have been solid and well reasoned.

Here were the picks in the first round when the Bears’ turn came up:

Houston Texans Jadeveon Clowney, OLB/DE, South Carolina
St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
Jacksonville Jaguars Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Cleveland Browns Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Oakland Raiders Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
Atlanta Falcons Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Minnesota Vikings Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Bills Eric Ebron, TE, UNC
Detroit Lions Anthony Barr, DE/OLB, UCLA
***TRADE*** St. Louis Rams (from Tennessee Titans) Hasean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
New York Giants Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
***TRADE*** Tennessee Titans (from St. Louis Rams) Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

This left me with a serious dilemma. The Bears primary needs were at safety and defensive tackle and as the Bears general manager if I didn’t take one of those, there were going to be howls for my head going up all over Chicago. And, indeed, had Ha Ha Clinton-Dix been there, I might well have taken him. But Clinton-Dix wasn’t there.

Just a quick side note. Most mock drafters have the Bears taking Aaron Donald here. As you can see, Bears general manager Phil Emery was right when he said last week that we “shouldn’t count” on Donald being there. He wasn’t.

To be bluntly honest, I’m not too sure Donald is the right pick for the Bears anyway. It’s true he’s going to be a very good 3 technique tackle. But he’s undersized, making him a one trick pony. Most people assume the Bears are still going to be running the same defense they ran last year when they recommend Donald. But I’m not too sure Emery wouldn’t prefer a tackle with more size, making him more versatile along the front.

Anyway, my board at this point stacked up this way:

C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
Darqueze Dennard, CB,Michigan State
Calvin Pryor,S, Louisville
Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State

Most people at this point would have taken Pryor just as Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune did this morning. In fact, Biggs and I mildly disagree because he took Pryor over Clinton-Dix. I had two problems with taking Pryor:

1. I really thought he should go somewhere closer to 20, not 14, and I thought he was a little bit of a reach at this spot
2. C.J Mosely was rated far higher than anyone else I had left to me. Mosely is easily a top 10 talent. No one else was close to that.

Had Mosely been a wide receiver, I would have passed without a second thought. But the Bears have a sneaky need at linebacker. Their current starters are Lance Briggs (33), whose contract expires at the end of next year, D.J. Williams, who is 31 but coming off of an injury and on a 1-year contract, and Shea McClellin, who is converting from defensive end. Jon Bostic, last year’s second rounder, is likely to compete with McClellin and it looks like his future might be at weak side linebacker as Briggs’ eventual replacement.

C.J. Mosley was at the top of my board and in my opinion he was a decidedly better player than my other options. He’s an ideal middle linebacker of the future and I saw no reason why he couldn’t eventually find his way into the starting line up over Williams. So I grabbed him.

Looking back on it, I made more than one mistake here. The Bears really needed a defensive tackle and I have a fondness for Hageman. Trading back was what I really needed to do but I assumed (and it was true) that everyone would be wanting to trade back. Therefore I knew it was unlikely that I would have a trading partner.

But the Packer’s rep contacted me after the pick and said he was hoping that Mosely would continue to fall to him, something I should have known. If I had it to to over again, I would have told him I was taking Mosely if he didn’t trade up with me. Then I might have had the 21st pick, a good spot to take Pryor if he fell (unlikely) or Hageman, who is the player I really wanted.  Worst case scenario you take one of the cornerbacks.  There’s no way a good player of some type who filled a need wouldn’t have fallen to me at that spot.

Hindsight is 20-20 and fortunately I have the benefit of it. Phil Emery won’t. I’ve been pretty critical of Emery’s draft picks in the past, especially McClellin two years ago. You can bet I’ll be a lot more sympathetic this year.

Surprise! Matt Barkley Regrets Nothing

Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times addresses the issues surrounding ormer USC quarterback Matt Barkley as he prepares to be drafted this week:

“The next player who regrets staying in school after his draft stock plummets probably will be the first. So it’s no surprise USC quarterback Matt Barkley wouldn’t change a thing.

‘‘No, no regrets that I came back last year,’’ Barkley said at the NFL combine. ‘‘Haven’t looked back once. Wouldn’t change my USC career for anything.’’

It’s difficult to define just how much Barkley lost by returning to USC for his senior year. After a stellar junior season, he was rated by some draft analysts among the top 10 players in the draft. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. rated Barkley with Robert Griffin III and said it’s unlikely he would’ve lasted past the Cleveland Browns at No. 4 (the Browns took Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden).

I watched Barkley do Jon Gruden‘s Quarterback Camp segment recently (below).  I thought it was funny that someone, probably his agent, instructed him to take notes as Gruden pontificated just so he wouldn’t have to sit there with a vacant expression and shake his head up and down like a bobble head doll.

It didn’t work.

The Name to Keep an Eye on: Arthur Brown

Don Pompei reviews the middle linebackers in this year’s draft.  The player that catches my eye in this group is Arthur Brown:

“Arthur Brown, Kansas State, 6-1, 241: Brown is like [sure first round pick, Alec] Ogletree in that he has the ability to play outside as well as inside. ‘He’s a fast-flow, run-and-hit guy,’ one veteran scout said. Brown is very athletic and he has good instincts. He goes all out. Brown gets off blocks well and runs the seam better than most of the linebackers in this class (he ran a 4.67 40 at his pro day). There is some concern over his size. The transfer from Miami is a little smaller than ideal. He showed up at the combine at 240, but played at 230 pounds, according to one front office man. The good news for Brown is he plays big. He packs a wallop. He has risen up the charts in recent weeks.”

Brown’s got all of the characteristics of a cover two middle linebacker.  The comment about how he played a 230 lbs and is getting bigger would, based upon what we saw last year, fit the profile former strength and conditioning coach and current Bears GM Phil Emery, might be looking for.  Emery seems to like players who he thinks can put on weight without losing quickness.  Brown sounds like one of those guys.  That may be why they had him in town for an interview (one of the very few that leaked out of Halas Hall this winter).

The Bears probably prefer Ogletree but most mock drafts have him gone before the Bears pick.  Pompei has him going at 16 to the Rams.  I think the Steelers and the Giants (at 17 and 19 in the first round, respectively) would also like to have him.

Assuming he’s not there when the Bears turn comes up at 20, they may prefer to trade back.  Indeed, Emery has made it clear that the pick is for sale.  Brown may be the first guy he has in mind if he trades into the second round.  That would mean we’d all have to wait until Friday evening to see the Bears make a pick.  But it could be a memorable one.

Does Marc Trestman Know Personnel?

It was a good day at the Chicago Tribune for fan questions.  Dan Pompei answers another good one here:

“It’s hard to think Coach Trestman could keep up with NFL personnel while coaching for years in Canada. Don’t you think he has to be at a disadvantage versus other NFL coaches knowing player abilities as we add people with offseason roster moves? It has to take months to evaluate the tape for just our current players, much less help the scouting department decide that someone like Matt Slauson is the guard to go out and get out of many available? — Phil Elbert, Chicago

“I don’t think there is any question Trestman is at a disadvantage when it comes to personnel.  He does not know the league as well as the large majority of his head coaching peers…  The other point to be made here is Trestman is not in charge of personnel.  [General manager] Phil Emery is.  Trestman’s job is to tell Emery exactly what his systems need at each position.  Emery’s job is to find and acquire the players who fit.  So ultimately, I don’t think Trestman’s disadvantage will be a major factor.”

I don’t see this as a problem, at least in terms of off season moves.

Trestman’s ability to evaluate his own team most definitely is an issue.  He’s going to have to determine where the teams talent is and what the roster and the depth chart should look like coming out of training camp.  And he’s not going to know the Bears opponents quite as well when formulating game plans during the season.  But you could argue that even this will actually be an advantage in a sense.  He won’t have any previous biases.  Perhaps he’ll be more likely to rely on what he sees.

Bottom line, most of us believe that former head coach Lovie Smith had too much say in the way the Bears handled personnel while he was here.  That’s unlikely to be a problem with Trestman in part because of exactly this issue.  Leaving the acquisition of talent up to Emery while Trestman concentrates more on coaching it could become a major strength rather than a weakness.

Is Alec Ogletree Worth the Risk?

Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Don’t you think the Bears will be worried about character concerns with Alec Ogletree? —@TCBullfrog, from Twitter

“Yes I do. I think 31 other teams will be as well.  But that doesn’t man Ogletree won’t be a first round draft pick.  Ogletree reportedly failed a drug test and was subsequently suspended by Georgia for four games. He also has been arrested for misdemeanor theft and driving under the influence. A team could look past one of those incidents and justify it a lot easier than it can look past and justify three of them…  Given Ogletree’s past, there is no question taking him involves risk.  Giving Ogletree’s ability, the potential reward could outweigh that risk. The issue is at what point of the draft will taking that risk make sense.”

I, personally, would be excited to see Ogletree become a Bear.  At their position in the first round, he would be a steal.  Given the Brandon Marshall trade, I’d say general manager Phil Emery is more of a gambler than most in this regard.  Ownership is unlikely to get involved – unless Ogletree does something stupid.  Then it won’t be just him who is paying the price.

I’d say if he were to still be there at #20 overall, the Bears would take him.

The Horizontal Draft Approach and How Teams Don’t Pick the Best Available Player

Armando Salguero at the Miami Herald says that, though all general managers say they are taking the best available player, many are  actually drafting horizontally and not vertically:

“Drafting horizontally basically means the Dolphins want to give themselves space to fill their needs instead of simply picking the player with the highest draft grade.”

“Drafting horizontally, one critic of the format told me last week, is a great way to fool the media and the owner into thinking you’re picking the best available player who coincidently plays a position of need (wink, wink) when what you’re really doing is just filling your greatest needs.”

“The vertical approach simply grades a number of players that are draft eligible one after the other, regardless of position. It is a 300-name totem pole of sorts with the best player in the draft at the top and Mr. Irrelevant at the bottom.

And, theoretically, the selection process takes on a life of its own because as names come off the board, all a team has to do when its turn comes up is pick the next player with the highest grade.

If a team is drafting 12th overall, as the Dolphins are, and the highest player on the board has the No. 6 overall grade, that’s the pick regardless of position or need.

That’s the classic approach. It’s simple. It’s black and white.

The horizontal approach leaves room for more grays.

Teams using this approach stretch every position group horizontally across a board. Left ends, nose tackles, right ends, weak linebackers, strong linebackers, inside linebackers, wide receivers, quarterbacks and so on. (Teams with 4-3 defenses use different position groups as teams running 3-4 looks.)

The Dolphins would then take a small number of players — between 120 and 180, depending on the year — and plug them into their board according to their position.

Along the first line under every position, the club places the name of players that have a first-round grade. So first-round cornerbacks are on the same horizontal line as first-round quarterbacks or running backs or any other position.

Along the second line, the name of every player with a second-round grade is placed under his appropriate position. That’s how a second-round safety can be on the same horizontal line with a second-round quarterback.

And on draft day, when the No.?12 pick comes up — assuming the Dolphins aren’t trading up or down — [Jeff] Ireland will be able to scan horizontally across the first round and spy the handful of players graded at the pick. Those players will be laid out horizontally at their various positions.

The Dolphins GM can then select a name out of that group.

It shouldn’t surprise that the player selected often plays a position of need, because logic and human nature will dictate that picking a quarterback ahead of a cornerback won’t help the team as much in 2012 even if the quarterback is rated higher.”

I’m pretty sure that Salguero is actually simplifying what is, in fact, a very complex process with a lot of blurry edges for every team.  I’d be willing to bet that no team in the NFL drafts vertically in the strictest sense of the word as described above and very few draft strictly horizontally. The NFL Network goes into the draft room of one team every year and, though they don’t give you a good look at it, I’ve never seen a draft board that wasn’t set up by position.  Most probably there’s both a vertical and horizontal arrangement on every board.

They key is to take the best available player that’s going to improve your team.  For some teams that means taking the best player at a position of need (horizontal).  For others it means taking the best player who can improve any position (vertical).  The Dolphins fall closer to the first category.

On the other hand, the Bears almost certainly will fall closer to the latter category this year.  They’ve tried very hard to fill positions of need with free agents in the hopes of leaving themselves free to take almost any player on draft day.  But that doesn’t mean regardless of position.  They aren’t taking a running back in the few rounds because they simply aren’t going to find one who is going to be an upgrade over Matt Forte.  Unless they’re planning on playing a lot more man coverage, they aren’t going to find an upgrade over their two Pro Bowl cornerbacks.  And though quarterback is a little different in that you might draft for the future there, its also almost certainly out, at least for the first round.  But defensive tackle, defensive end, and safety?  These aren’t necessarily positions of need per se.  But I’m betting the Bears wouldn’t hesitate to go in any of those directions.

Personally I prefer the vertical approach.  Success in the league depends upon the ability to find impact players.  Common sense tells you that you are less likely to find one if your hands are tied by only considering a hand full of positions.  But for budget conscious teams like the Packers, and particularly those with lots of needs like the Dolphins, the horizontal approach isn’t just the best way to go.  It’s the only way to go.  Something to consider as we watch the process unfold on April 25.

Nawrocki Evaluates the Bears 2012 Draft

Nolan Nawrocki at Pro Football Weekly reviews the Bears 2012 draft:

“Far from a great debut for GM Phil Emery’s first draft class, but it’s too soon to call it a failure.”

The pick that kills this draft? Brandon Hardin in the third round. Your third rounder is supposed to compete to start not be a back up limited by injury.

Having said that, as Nawrocki points out, its a little early to evaluate this draft.  I think a lot of these picks like first rounder Shea McClellin were based upon anticipated future development.  Both he and second rounder Alshon Jeffery needed to spend some time in the weight room and that wasn’t going to happen until this offseason.

Dan Pompei’s Mock Draft Has the Bears in a Good Position

Dan Pompei‘s mock draft at the Chicago Tribune works out well for the Bears:

20. Bears: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia. If he makes it this far, Ogletree seems like an easy pick. A trade down remains a viable possibility, as the Bears have flexibility as far as needs.

This would be an outstanding scenario for the Bears.  If Ogletree fell right into their laps like this, it would be a steal.

Fortunately GM Phil Emery has done an outstanding job of putting the Bears into a position where he can take the best player available with few exceptions (for instance at running back where he’s highly unlikely to find a starter better than Matt Forte).  Whoever falls to them, its almost certainly going to be a good pick.