Month: April 2015

The Dangers of Drafting a Vic Beasley

Todd McShay at ESPN evaluates pass rushing prospect Vic Beasley:

“I’m not as high on Beasley as some others are, because I didn’t see any power element to his game on tape. I also have a hard time putting a top-15 type of grade on a defensive front-seven defender that turns down contact and likes to pile-inspect. Yes, his production at Clemson was off the charts. And yes, his workout numbers are rare. I also believe he is a hard worker with good football character. But I just don’t see the value as a first-half-of-the-first-round draft pick. When it’s all said and done, Beasley might be best suited to play off-the-line in a role somewhat similar to that of Von Miller (Broncos) or Anthony Barr (Vikings).”

I couldn’t agree more. Beasley (below) concerns me on a number of fronts other those that McShay points out (all of which I saw myself when watching him last fall).

Joe Robbins/Getty Images
Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Beasley is the very definition of a late riser who found himself floating up boards after the Combine. He was at best a mid-first round prospect before that because, as McShay points out, he had no power to his game. I’ll also point out that I thought his instincts were suspect. Then he showed up at the Combine 15-20 pounds heavier and he carried the weight well. Now teams apparently think he projects to show more power.

But the question is, “Will he be able to carry that weight through the course of an NFL season?” Once a player starts getting regular snaps with an NFL defense, the weight has a bad habit of melting off, especially if it isn’t natural for the player to be carrying it.

Beasley looks to me like the prototypical case of a player who you have to stick to the video on. He is what he was at Clemson. Suggesting otherwise is a dangerous game. If I’m the Bears, I’m not touching him with the seventh pick.

Gabriel Not a Believer in Jameis Winston

Nate Atkins quotes Pro Football Now draft analyst Greg Gabiel who scouted for the Bears and Giants for 26 years on Jameis Winston:

“Bill Parcells used to tell me, ‘You’ve only got to be sprayed by the skunk one time to know it stinks.’ I don’t trust Jameis Winston to comply. He has a fault. He doesn’t get it.”

Maybe. I still think Winston’s major fault is that he’s impulsive (on and off the field). I’m not convinced he’s a bad guy and I’m not convinced he won’t be able to stay out of trouble after he’s drafted. At least for the most part.

When Is Due Diligence Called For and When Isn’t It?

Patrick Finley at the Chicago Sun-Times profiles defensive tackle Danny Shelton:

“[G]iven that the team will morph into 4-3 defense on nickel and dime situations, the Bears could be cautious drafting someone who could be limited to two downs.”

“The 6-foot-2, 339-pounder has been compared to Haloti Ngata and Vince Wilfork. But he’s athletic enough that, growing up, he wanted to be Steelers safety Troy Polamalu.”

“He showed that athleticism when, in the rival Apple Cup matchup with Washington State this year, he barrel-rolled along the ground at line of scrimmage before the snap, lining up in a new position, and then sacked the quarterback.”

Having looked at some video of Shelton I can say that the comparison to Wilfork is a pretty good one. He’s plenty athletic and I think its entirely possible that he could be more than a two down player. But even as a two down player he’d be valuable. Finley points out that the Bears might be better off drafting a pass rusher – and they might. But there’s a decent chance that with proven 4-3 defensive ends like Jared Allen and Willie Young on the team, any pass rusher they take could well be restricted to being a two down player as well.

But here’s the paragraph that really caught my eye.

“Shelton talked extensively with the Bears at the Senior Bowl and at the NFL Scouting Combine, and, he said, with a Chicago scout after that. His only official visit after the combine was with the Browns, though he said teams have learned enough about him during his showcases to not need one-on-one visits.”

Do the Bears do their “due diligence” by brining in Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota – two players who are unlikely to be there at the seventh pick. They bring in Mario Edwards and T.J. Clemmings presumably on the off chance they find a way to trade down. But they don’t bring in Shelton, who is likely to be there when you pick and who fits the defense to a T? And not just the Bears – nobody seems to be brining him in.

I don’t get this. Each team gets 30 visits with prospects. The Packers general manager Ted Thompson restricts his mostly to low round players and free agents who weren’t at the Combine. That makes sense. But if you are a team like the Bears, how do you decide which prospects you do “due diligence on” and which you don’t?

The process seems random. Hopefully its not.

Draft Day Trade of Cutler? In Some Ways It Makes Sense.

Josh Alper at profootballtalk.com continues to speculate on the possibility that Jay Cutler will be traded. This is, of course, possible and if it is going to happen, it will most likely be close to or during the draft. But it’s highly unlikely to be directly connected to an attempt to obtain Marcus Mariota.

If the Bears do draft a quarterback that they feel could start in 2015 or even one they think they can be very confident will develop this year, they might still be able to trade Cutler for a bag of balls without, for instance, asking for some sort of quarterback in return. If they pass on Mariota, that team could be the Titans, who might want a veteran quarterback to pair with promising but still relatively unknown Zack Mettenberger. That would be some expensive insurance, though, and it’s unclear to me how Cutler would fit into that equation.  It’s possible that such a trade only happens if the Titans, contrary to their public stance, actually have doubts about Mettenberger (as everyone outside of Tennessee seems to have).

Bottom line anything is possible. This assessment of the Bears chances of trading Cutler on draft day from Adam Schein at nfl.com is right in line with that thinking:

“New GM Ryan Pace established that Cutler is the Bears’ starting quarterback, but let’s be honest: It wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. Is it hard to imagine the new regime looking for an opportunity to unload the mercurial signal-caller and his bloated contract? No, not at all.

“Let’s say a QB-needy team — Tennessee or Cleveland, for example — eschews the position early in the draft. Would either entertain the idea of ‘fixing’ Cutler if it only meant taking on his salary and giving up a low-round pick? The Titans need buzz and Cutler made a name for himself in Nashville while starring at Vanderbilt. Cleveland … well, you can never be sure what the Browns are thinking. So who knows?

“Would the Bears get rid of Cutler, even without addressing the position in Round 1? I would, if I were Pace, in a heartbeat. I’d look to draft a quarterback on Day 2 and possibly make a move for a vet. You cannot have John Fox preaching energy as Cutler sucks the life out of the Bears.”

What quarterback on Day 2?  How about Garrett Grayson? I love Grayson and I think the Bears should seriously consider drafting him. Read this article by Troy E. Renck at the Denver Post to see why.

“When I talk to NFL scouts, I tell them to let him show what he knows. He can run a pro offense, and I also tell them to put on the film,” [former Colorado State offensive coordinator Dave] Baldwin said. “I tell them to watch the Boston College game, when he hurt his shoulder, hobbled to the line of scrimmage and wouldn’t come out. Or watch when we went down to San Jose State and he pulled his hamstring and had a great day. His toughness is what you want. And his knowledge of defenses is definitely what you should want.”

Insert Grayson and take out Cutler for a low round pick? I’d take that. In a heart beat.

What if Marcus Mariota Actually Fell to the Seventh Pick? It’s Not an Easy Question Anymore.

Nate Atkins at chicagofootball.com makes the case for the Bears to draft Marcus Mariota if they get the chance:

“Mariota will need time to grow, which is just a continuation of the path he’s been on for years. In the two years between committing to the Ducks and becoming their starter, Mariota made football his life, transforming from an overly emotional teenager to one of the most stoic stars in the game.

“He drew Oregon’s gazillion plays on school notebooks so he could teach them to teammates in practice. He wrote his entire Heisman acceptance speech on a piece of photo paper so he could follow it in one of the toughest moments of his life. Process is his refuge.”

“You reach a point in staring into the eyes of a man that you start to see the person he’s becoming rather than the one he just left behind. In Mariota, you see all the tools – the 6-4, 225-pound frame; the 4.52 speed; the strong arm; and the instantaneous release – and maybe the question to ask isn’t if, but when?”

This is some nice insight in a well-written article. Mariota (below) has risen in the estimation of many evaluators in the media as they’ve had more and more time to study him.  It seems that many are realizing that he did more in the Oregon offense that translates to the pro game than they had originally thought.

Marcus_Mariota_vs._USC

Atkins seems to take seriously the idea that Tennessee would trade the second overall pick for the Bears pick and Jay Cutler. He doesn’t say so but I’m sure he realizes that the Bears would have to throw in more.

More likely the question of whether the Bears should take Mariota will come if he actually falls to the seventh pick. Last week I would have said, “Trade down and take the extra picks.” The Bears have needs all over the field and the opportunity to take more than one young, cheap playmaker with an extra pick or two would be too great to pass up.  But now I’m not so sure that Mariota isn’t going to be the answer at the most important position in football. For someone at least.

Forte’s Absence Strengthens the Possibility that the Bears Will Draft a Runningback

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune explains the situation surrounding runningback Matt Forte‘s absence from minicamp:

“Forte announced via Twitter that he worked out at Bommarito’s, an athletic performance center in South Florida, and after the Tribune reported he was not present at Halas Hall, he took to the social media site again.

“‘Relax everybody,’ Forte wrote. ‘It’s called voluntary W/O for a reason. I’ve always been there especially when it counts!'”

“It is a delicate situation for new general manager Ryan Pace and [head coach John] Fox, who has typically used a committee approach to the position. While Forte has been tremendously durable and productive, he’s a high-mileage back with 2,260 touches since his rookie season of 2008.”

As Forte suggests, I’m relaxed about this. I don’t doubt he’ll be in shape after working out in Florida – there are few players I would be so sure about.

Forte_Camp_2009

However, Forte is missing the opportunity to work with coaches in the classroom as they install a new scheme. I’m not saying it takes a brain surgeon to figure out or that he couldn’t catch up. But it would be better if he were here getting familiar with new surroundings and new responsibilities.

With Forte not attending workouts and seeking what will be an expensive contract extension, you wonder if the Bears aren’t going to play hardball and have Forte play though the end of his contract. Its a good year for runningbacks in the draft and teams don’t like to take them too high. With Fox’s preference for a runningback by committee approach, and with Forte’s age and mileage, the Bears were bound to take one anyway. Based upon my experience participating in mock drafts and looking over existing ones in the media, I’d say there’s a very good chance one will be the best available player or nearly the best available player through the middle rounds.

Bucking the NFL Trend at Quarterback

David Climer at The Tennessean looks into the validity of the rumors that the Titans will draft a quarterback of trade for Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers.

“Who, then, will be the Tennessee Titans’ starting quarterback when the regular season opens in September?

“[sixth round draft pick] Zach Mettenberger, of course.

“Look, I’m not telling you this is what should happen. I’m just telling you what will happen.

“This is how the Titans roll. They’ve got a plan and they’re sticking to it.”

“In short, [head coach Ken] Whisenhunt and [general manager Ruston] Webster think they pulled the steal of the 2014 draft. Titans brass see Mettenberger as a poor team’s Tom Brady. He’s the quarterback.”

I absolutely believe this. I’m not 100% convinced that they won’t trade a bag of balls for someone like Cutler as insurance (though I doubt it). But I genuinely believe that the Titans want to see if Mettenberger is their future and I don’t think they’ll draft a quarterback high in this draft.

If the Titans stick to their guns here, they’re gong to be bucking a serious trend. The general belief is that you find your NFL starting quarterbacks in the first and second rounds. Not much consideration is ever given to lower round picks anymore. Mike Huguenin examines the situation. Note that the Rams and Eagles both had two quarterbacks who started eight games:

“What we found among the 34 starters: Exactly half (17) were first-round picks, including five quarterbacks who were the overall No. 1 picks. In all, there were eight first-rounders who were the first quarterbacks selected in their respective draft, along with five first-rounders who were the second quarterbacks drafted and four who were the third signal-callers picked. (Two former first-rounders were injured, Arizona’s Carson Palmer and St. Louis’ Sam Bradford, and another, Buffalo’s EJ Manuel, lost his starting job early in the season — meaning the 17 easily could have been 20.)

“Six quarterbacks were second-round picks, including two who were the second quarterbacks selected in their respective drafts.”

There’s a part of me that thinks its nice that the Titans are giving a sixth round draft pick a chance to develop. There’s an underdog quality to the story and I’m rooting for him. At the same time, like many others, I’m wondering what the Titans see in Mettenberger that most of the rest of the world doesn’t.

It could be very good news for late round quarterbacks if Mettenberger works out and the rest of the copycat NFL follows their lead. I think underrated guys like East Carolina’s Shane Carden are too often dismissed and deserve more of a chance. On the other hand, if the Titans are deluding themselves into thinking Mettenberger is a gem that he’s not, they’re going to be kicking themselves for not taking a quarterback in the part of the draft where virtually everyone else currently agrees that you find one.

Jay Cutler and Another Example of How Statistics Can Be Worthless

I’ve heard over and over again about how Jay Cutler‘s statistics from last year are better than fans give him credit for. The Bears had the 16th best overall passer rating of any team in the league. Not too bad you say? Let’s take a closer look, shall we?

jay-cutler-3

Cutler padded those stats with the third most yards of all NFL quarterbacks from screen passes. And where did “Mr. Clutch” rate in the fourth quarter only? The Bears were 26th. And that’s even after padding the stats in the second half of blowout losses to the Packers and the Patriots. From Steve Palazzolo at profootballfocus.com and from sportingcharts.com.

If you are going to use statistics to defend your argument, I’d suggest that you at least take a deep dive.  Even then, I’d say that if the number doesn’t pass the eye test, trust your eyes.  They do a lot better job of drawing conclusions from complex situations than a one dimensional number ever will.

Confusion over the Case of Serial Rapist Darren Sharper

Most of us were surprised and a little disturbed that after drugging and raping nine women in four states, former NFL safety Darren Sharper only got 10 years in a plea deal. But as documented by Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com, the deal involves quite a bit more than that:

“Among other things, Sharper must consent to a penile plethysmograph test, in which a sensor will be attached to his genitals for the purposes of measuring arousal in response to specific stimulants.”

“He’ll be required to permanently wear a GPS device, and he’ll be prohibited from ever attempting to contact any of his victims.

“Sharper also is prohibited from possessing or consuming alcohol — for life — and from ever entering a bar. He’ll be required to provide urine or breath samples upon request from law enforcement.”

OK, so most of that makes sense. But not all of it.

A “penile plethysmograph” is a test that basically measures the blood flow to the penis by measuring its circumference. The measurement can be made in response to certain stimuli to distinguish groups of men with biastophilia (paraphilic rape in which sexual arousal is dependent on, or is responsive to, the act of assaulting an non-consenting person).

So my assumption was that Sharper has biastophilia. Apparently not. So now I ask myself, if he gets it, why? What do you do to develop this? Is it a suggestion that you’ve raped another woman? Or is it just a suggestion that all of the sudden, presumably for some other reason, you just want to? What are you going to do if he fails the test? Send him to jail for being sick in the head?

I’m not sure I understand any of this. Perhaps more explanation will be provided at another point.

On the Value of Zone Blocking

Andrew Mason at denverbroncos.com quotes Hall of Fame offensive tackle Gary Zimmerman on the benefits of running a zone blocking scheme. The Bears will do at least some zone blocking this year:

“‘It’s going to take a lot of pressure off [Peyton Manning], for one. In the past, the [offense] was one-dimensional, it was pretty much a throwing team, and that’s what everyone prepared for, and all the pressure was on Peyton, so when you have a zone-blocking game, if the run’s not working, you go to the pass, and if the pass is not working, you go to the run,’ Zimmerman said in an interview for a story posted April 2.

“‘I think the biggest thing in the zone blocking is that the defense has a lot more to think about, because a lot of plays look alike, and there’s a lot of pass plays that look like run plays. It kind of puts a little more thinking on the defense as in the previous years, where they just lined up and played, and knew that the pass was coming. Now they’re going to have to first determine if it’s a run or a pass, and then go from there.'”

Zone blocking often involves taking a side step or a bucket step and reacting to the direction the defensive lineman takes. I’ve always been a fan of firing off of the ball at the snap, myself, because it allows the use of the only advantage offensive linemen have – they know the snap count. But I can see Zimmerman’s point.

All linebackers are told to watch the offensive lineman as a key to whether the play is a run or a pass.  But because zone blocking often involves the same kind of movement that pass blocking involves, a run can look an awful lot like a pass to a defender. They therefore are more likely to hesitate and wait for other keys to tell what’s going on. That can be a great advantage in a game where speed is everything.

Assuming the Bears do what Broncos did last year, they are going to run a combination of blocking techniques. If the lineman can master them all, it could make them very formidable. If they can master them all.