Packers Have One Weak Point. Maybe.

Posted on September 12, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Rob Demovsky at ESPN.com points out that the Packers have Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles their first three games. If their run defense isn’t improved, things could get ugly early.

The Packers have theoretically worked on getting better against the run all offseason but if they’ve accomplished it, it hasn’t been through upgrades in personnel. They’re getting B.J. Raji back after he was out all of last season with a torn biceps tendon. But they won’t have defensive ends Letroy Guion and Mike Daniels, both of whom are serving three game suspensions for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

The Packers do have one saving grace. They got considerably better against the run after they moved outside linebacker Clay Mathews inside, allowing only 86 yards per game. They’ll likely do that again.

Nevertheless, if the Packers have a weak point its their run defense. The Bears can only hope that they’ll be starting a miserable run of good rushing offense against them if they’re going to compete.

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Aren’t the Bears Supposed to Be Hoarding Draft Picks?

Posted on September 12, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Here’s another good question for Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com, one that I also had:

“Why did the Bears trade a draft pick away [for TE Khari Lee]?”

“My understanding is it’s a sixth-round pick in 2017, not next year. To justify that pick, all he has to do is become a solid No. 2 and you can get two years of production out of him that you don’t get with that pick if you keep it.

“That’s why they did it.

“My analysis is they better be right and he better become at least a No. 2 tight end in the league. I can’t ever remember a team trading a sixth-round draft choice for a player who was an undrafted rookie free agent out of a D II (or whatever they call it these days) school.”

Who cares about production over the next two years?Khari Lee

I’ll take this farther than Hub. Lee better turn out to be more than a strictly blocking tight end, which is what he’s been characterized as. You can pick better ones than Lee up in the sixth or seventh round of any draft and nothing should tell you that more than the fact that Lee was undrafted.

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Would Switching Jordan Mills to Guard Have Helped?

Posted on September 12, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com answers your questions:

Q: “Wouldn’t it have been worth a try to move [Jordan] Mills to right guard before releasing him?”

A: “I would have liked to have seen Mills get that chance because I think it is probably his natural position and he’s such a great kid it was hard not to pull for him. But the reality is Patrick Omahmeh is actually a better prospect at guard than either Mills or Vladimir Ducasse and the Bears did not have the luxury of keeping all three. At the end of the day, my guess is the Bears just didn’t see enough physicality out of Mills to suggest he is going to make it anywhere in the NFL.”

Moving Mills to guard wouldn’t have solved the major issue – lack of concentration. Mills simply made to many mistakes, his pre-snap penalties being the most evident of them. The guess here is that the current staff recognized that this wasn’t going to get better much earlier than the last staff did and that was the root of Mills’s demise.

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The Key to Defending the Packers? Get to the Ball and Tackle.

Posted on September 12, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune asks NFL scouts for a report on Packers wide receiver Davante Adams:

“‘He really came on at the end of the season,’ one scout said. ‘You look at him and he’s tall, real long and he has good change of direction for someone his size. He’s not an absolute burner, but he really fits what they do well in that hybrid West Coast system. He can run the curl and the fade and he’s pretty good in space. He has shown that he’s good at probably the most important thing in that Green Bay offense — what can you do in space? Yards after the catch. This guy will get explosive gains. He’ll turn a 5-yard catch into 15. He’ll turn 15 into a touchdown.'”

A couple thoughts on this report.

First notice what the scout does not emphasize – the ability to get separation. Adams doesn’t need that because quarterback Aaron Rogers has the ability to throw him open. It’s yet another reminder of why the Bears offense will always trail behind the Packers. It’s all about the quarterback. You can surround Jay Cutler with all of the talent in the world. Unless he learns to throw with anticipation to a receiver, the Bears will never be where they need to be.

Second its a reminder of the one thing the Bears must do really well on defense on Sunday. Tackle. That’s always true but its particularly true against the Packers. Defensive backs must be quick to the ball and must tackle immediately to limit yards after the catch. This is why Lovie Smith‘s teams always were competitive against the Packers. The cover two emphasize these very points and the Packers always had to work hard to get anywhere against it. Indeed, that’s how the cover two gained popularity. It was specifically designed to defeat the West Coast offense run so well by the San Fransisco 49ers in the 1980s. The Packers version is, of couse, more evolved. But the defense is still effective against it.

Unfortunately this isn’t defensive coordinator Vic Fangio‘s style. His defensive backs typically play more man coverage. This can work, as it did regularly against the Packers when Fangio coached the 49ers. Fangio’s defensive backs are also more physical, knocking receivers off their routes. And he disguises his defenses well, something Rogers apparently appreciates:

“‘He always had a lot of moving pieces, but they always seem to be very well prepared,’ Rodgers said Wednesday. ‘There weren’t any mental errors or breakdowns.'”

And there better not be Sunday, either. As Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune emphasizes with this quote from Saints Hall of Fame linebacker Ricky Jackson, it’s not going to be easy:

“‘If he gets a team that has some good closers, he’s going to make some noise,’ Jackson said. ‘And if you ever give him a good secondary, he’s going to kill people.'”

If you give him a good secondary. The Packers passing offense was ranked 8th in the league last year. The Bears passing defense? 30th. And so far this years version looks worse to me. If the defensive backs are a step slow Sunday, as they were in all four preseason games, the Bears aren’t going to get it done.

In fairness, that’s probably true no matter what scheme they play. But its particularly true if Fangio relies on man coverage. Trying to deny receivers the ball in such a scheme is fine as long as players are in a position to make the tackle after a catch. Good fundamentals are going to be the key on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how Fangio and the rest of the Bears defense handle the situation.

Posted in Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers | Leave a comment

Bears Veterans Trying to Instill Attitude, Confidence in the Rookies

Posted on September 12, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune points out that the play of the Bears rookies will be a key to how they do on Sunday, particularly on defense. But its this quote from 11 year veteran safety Antrel Rolle that I found to be most interesting:

“‘[Rookie safety Adrian Amos is] going to fly around and make plays,’ Rolle said. ‘He doesn’t shy away from anything. More importantly, he’s excited about this challenge. I tell him, man, for a rookie to come in and play Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 starting with the Bears, that’s huge. And I couldn’t be more happy for him.'”

Maintaining confidence is going to be important when Amos and the others take the field on Sunday. Rolle and the other Bears obviously know that and they’re obviously talking big in an effort to instill the right attitude and build the rookies up.

Rolle is right. This is a huge opportunity. But there is also a huge risk that players like Amos will be permanently damaged by a poor performance against perhaps the best offense in the league. There are already some signs that may have happened to second year cornerback Kyle Fuller following last year’s series of debacles as he faded late in the year. Here’s hoping all of the rookies are tough enough mentally to hang in through the inevitable ups and downs of the coming season, especially starting on Sunday.

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A.J. Green Gets His, Will Alshon Jeffery Be Far Behind?

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Tom Shannon

The Cincinnati Enquirer is reporting that the Bengals and wide receiver A.J. Green have joined the wide receiver contract extension party by agreeing to a four-year extension.

Fellow receivers Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Demayrius Thomas, all recently signed five year contracts in the neighborhood of $70 million over five years. However Green will get more money per year and more up front than all of them. Green signed a four-year extension worth $60 million.

The extension-mania that has hit the league makes me wonder when Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, whose contract is up after this season, will get his. The Bears front office is understandably being cautious with Jeffery, who has a bad habit of getting hurt and who hasn’t shown the new regime anything on the field, yet. But Green’s contract might serve as a model for the team and Jeffery’s representatives to follow.

According to profootballtalk.com a key negotiating point was the Bengals not guaranteeing money past the first year, making the duration of the deal key to Green’s representatives, settling on a four-year deal, not five. A similar structure might decrease the team’s risk in extending Jeffery to the point that it might become feasible to do a deal sooner rather than later, something I’d recommend they do rather than letting Jeffery hit the open market. The franchise tag will also remain a very viable possibility for Jeffery unless someone else emerges this season who will be a candidate for it.

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Preseason Guessing Game Continues as Bears Injury report is Released

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Tom Shannon

The Bears Friday pregame injury report is out and and its interesting. Despite practicing all week, Alshon Jeffery (calf), Eddie Royal (hip) and Marquess Wilson (hamstring) were all classified as “questionable” (i.e. 50-50) for the game. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen (head) and defensive tackle Eddie Goldman (head) were both probable.

Most of the media think that Fox’s attitude towards giving anything away to the opposition is paranoid. I’m not so sure but whether it is or not, he’s certainly sticking with it, trying (probably in vain) to keep the Packers guessing as to who will play. I’m wondering if classifying Goldman and Clausen as “probable” is due to the fact that he’s purposely waiting to have them cleared via the concussion protocol. Doing it sooner might have forced him to take them off of the report.

Offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod (back) is also probable. Both outside linebacker Sam Acho (illness) and cornerback Tracy Porter (hamstring) are out.

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Steelers Look Like Season-Long Disappointment Waiting to Happen

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Gene Collier at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette regales his readers with a description of how the Steelers covered (or more accurately failed to cover) Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski last night.

“There were any number of reasons to expect a burst of [Patriots quarterback Tom] Brady virtuosity Thursday night, not the least of which was the presence on the Steelers sideline of Shamarko Thomas and Cortez Allen, the two defenders most urgently charged with solidifying a suspected secondary this season.

“That neither could earn a starting assignment in the opener sent a bad moon rising over [Steelers head coach Mike] Tomlin’s team, a dark karma it only exacerbated by the curious way in which it attempted to cover monster tight end Gronkowski, perhaps best described as running after him helplessly as he cruised toward the end zone.

“Gronkowski scored three touchdowns and fellow Patriots tight end Scott Chandler a fourth. Not even by putting Thomas and Robert Golden on the field at the same time in dime coverage could new defensive coordinator Keith Butler spin any combination of coverage that could be deemed, uh, coverage.”

I know a lot of media experts are high on the Steelers this year and they’re considered to be a Super Bowl contender based upon their offensive potential. But that offense shot itself in the foot far too often last night with a turnover and a team total of 8 penalties for 77 yards against a mediocre Patriots defense.  Two missed field goals didn’t help.  I saw nothing from the Steelers offense to convince me that they’re going to be able to make up for what looks to me like a well-below average defense of their own.

There have been rumblings about dissatisfaction with Tomlin in Pittsburgh. They’re a franchise that’s known for its stability when it comes to head coaches but I’m already starting to wonder if he won’t be in trouble by December.

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Discipline the Key to Hanging with the Packers

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune reviews the state of the Packers:

“The Packers had their struggles stopping the run last season. A midseason shift to move Clay Matthews to inside linebacker helped. But in the playoffs, Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray ran for 123 yards and a touchdown. The next week Seahawks back Marshawn Lynch posted 157 rushing yards on 25 carries.”

“The Packers remain ordinary up front. And while Matthews is a dynamic player, he’s not a classic inside linebacker who will be an enforcer against the run.”

I would totally agree. Look for the Bears to try to control the game and keep Aaron Rogers off the field by running the ball. However, if they’re going to do that successfully, they’d better play with discipline, something they have not shown themsleves capable of doing in years, including the preseason this year. Penalties will kill any ball control game plan quickly.  Turnovers will kill any game plan of any type even quicker.

Still, we can hope that the Bears will remain competitive. Head coach John Fox had a message of hope that rings true this offseason:

“It’s back to people. I tell guys, ‘I’m not spending eight hours a day with [jerks]. And I don’t expect you to, either.’ When those come up, I’m runnin’ them out. Because it’s people. If you have all oars in the water and don’t have ‘anchors,’ you’ve got a chance – I don’t care what your talent level is.”

Bears fans are hoping he’s right.

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Should Being a Big Ten Running Back be a Red Flag in the Draft?

Posted on September 11, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Tom Krasovic at the San Diego Union-Tribune is concerned about Melvin Gordon in light of fellow Wisconsin alumnus Montee Ball‘s profesional struggles.

“Do Wisconsin running backs peak in college? Should frontline Big Ten running backs come with a warning label? Is it wise to invest premium draft picks in a running back?”

I think Krasovic’s concerns are much ado about nothing. But I will say that I’m surprised that Gordon struggled so much in the preseason. I honestly thought he was the top runningback in the 2015 draft (ahead of Todd Gurley). Gordon still has time for the light to come on but my evaluation isn’t looking good right now.

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