What Does It Mean to “Rest the Starters”? It All Depends.

I’ve been saying for days that we won’t see the Bears starters the whole game today.  And certainly that will probably be true, especially for any player who is nursing an injury.  But that doesn’t mean that they’ll just roll out the “second string” at 22 positions on offense and defense.  Brad Biggs, writing for the Chicago Tribune, makes the point:

“The idea of resting players against the Packers really isn’t realistic. Yes, players with any minor injuries will sit, but with a 53-man roster that turns into 46 (counting the third quarterback on game day), it’s not like [Bears head coach] Lovie Smith is going to be able to sit starters across the board.”

and then there’s this fact to consider as well:

“Running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Johnny Knox have some statistical milestones in mind. Forte needs 22 yards to reach 1,000 and Knox is 40 shy of that figure.”

The extent to which Smith should or will accommodate Forte and Knox is a debatable question but the guess here is that he’ll give them each a fair shot at reaching their respective milestones.  How long does that mean you leave them in?  If the Bears are playing well, you’re probably talking about roughly a half.  If they’re not, it means you leave them in until the game is obviously lost.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it is doubtful that Smith will pull anyone on the offensive line with the possible exception of veteran Olin Kreutz.  They’re playing better but the problems on the offensive line still exist, in part because they’ve only been together half a season.

I was listening to an local football commentator on WSCR one morning this week.  Callers had been trying to make the point that the Bears should play the Packers game all out because more game experience would be good for a Bear offense that has only recently begun to perform well.  The expert sarcastically asked how much better the players are going to get as a unit with only one more game. When you are an offensive line that has been together as a unit for only 8 games, and one that has yet to play well in the first half of any of them, the answer is a lot better.

Statistically there’s only a 2% chance that the Bears will have anything to play for as a team today.  In that case, they won’t play their “starters” much.  But when the word is framed in terms of who you leave in and who you leave out, the definition is going to vary.

Slot Receiver the One to Watch in Packer Offense

Matt Bowen, writing for the Chicago Tribune, provides his always insightful look into the Xs and Os for the average fan.  He looks at how the Packers will use Greg Jennings to target Brian Urlacher in the cover-2.  The graphic that comes with the article, shows how a typical red zone play develops.  The X receiver in the graphs carries the free safety away from the middle of the field while the strong safety worries about possible vertical routes from the three receivers from on that side of the field.  Urlacher has the slot receiver, Jennings, in the middle:

“This is a tough play for any Mike linebacker. Brian Urlacher is responsible for covering the Z vertically up the field. He will open his hips to the passing strength (closed side) and carry Jennings on the post to the middle of the end zone. Safeties Major Wright and Chris Harris will break to overlap Jennings on the throw from Aaron Rodgers, but the play initially has to be made by Urlacher. That’s a tough assignment versus the speed of Jennings.”

But it won’t be just Jennings who will be challenging Urlacher today.  The play reminds me of an article I read an article last week from Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  McGinn points out that the slot was always the position that Donald Driver occupied but that now, with age catching up to Driver, its falling more to James Jones and Jennings:

“Sunday against the Giants, coach Mike McCarthy sent out three wides on 17 snaps. Nine times Driver was in the slot, but on the other eight he was either by himself outside or outside the slot receiver.

“Because the slot receiver has an easier two-way go against the defender and often is covered by the No. 3 cornerback, slot has been the money position.”

“Jennings, a classic X (split end) receiver in his first four years, has played the slot more than ever before. Jones, who generally lined up wide right in three-wide sets, also has worked extensively inside. [Jordy] Nelson can go anywhere now, too.”

I used to think that the safeties had the toughest assignment in the cover 2 defense.  But gradually I’m starting to realize that if they’ve got it the worst, middle linebacker Brian Urlacher‘s job can’t be far behind.  Many will remember that it was Wes Welker, lining up all over the field but most often in the slot where he got a free release and could go in any direction, who did the most to ruin the Bears when they played the Patriots.  Its obviously going to be an important position to keep an eye on today as well no matter who lines up there.

Current Bears Linemen Long-Term Answers? And Other News

Bears

  • While answering a fan’s question, Neil Hayes at the Chicago Sun-Times surprised me with this revelation:

“As for offensive line prospects, it’s too early in the process for me to give you an educated answer. I did think it was interesting that a veteran scout whose sole job is evaluating offensive linemen told me that he thinks Frank Omiyale, Chris Williams and J’Marcus Webb can be long-term answers.”

That’s not going to make some of the fans who think the line needs a major overhaul in the draft very happy.

“‘He has a lot more left,’ Toub said. ‘He probably didn’t have the kind of year he would love to have, that’s for sure, but you have to consider his value.'”

  • I’ve raved about how gutsy the Packers have been this year as they’ve fought through injuries.  But there is still some doubt about whether they know how to win.  Rob Reischel, writing for the Chicago Tribune, notes that the Packers are 2-6 in games decided by four points or less and 2-14 since 2008:

“‘When I look at the Packers in the fourth quarter, it is awful,’ ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer said earlier this season. ‘You can’t be a good team and choke in the biggest moments.'”

Elsewhere

    • Jack Betcha at the National Football Post gives an inside look at how misleading agents can be when trying to recruit rookie clients.  I’m not sure there’s a dirtier legal business outside of politics.
    • We are led to believe that its best for Bears players to be held out of a “meaningless” game in order to stay healthy.  But the Patriots’ Wes Welker, injured in a similar situation, tells Ian Rapaport at the Boston Globe that he wouldn’t have had it any other way.
    • For those outside of St. Louis and Seattle who are looking for a reason to watch Sunday night, Matt Bowen at The National Football Post suggests you take a good look at Rams quarterback Sam Bradford and how he handles the situation.  I was on the record as saying that I thought Jimmy Clausen was the better pick.  Certainly for this year it looks like the scouts were right and I was wrong.
    • Judd Zulgad at the Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting that the Vikings are in serious negotiations with Leslie Frazier which will result in the removal of the “interim” tag from his head coach title.  Stay tuned.
    • Am I the only one who still thinks that Jets ticket holders have a legal case against the Patriots for Spy-Gate?

      One Final Thought

        R.J. Bell at pregame.com computes the chance that the Bears will obtain the number one seed in the NFC playoffs Sunday from the Vegas odds (via Joe Fortenbaugh at The National Football Post):  “Scenario: Bears win (21%) AND both Falcons and Saints lose (2%)”.  The bottom line?  There is a 98% chance the Bears will have nothing to play for against the Packers and there is a 0.5% chance that they will actually have home field throughout the playoffs.

        Don’t expect to see a lot of the Bears starters Sunday.

        Weis Likely to Leave Chiefs, Difficult Haley

        There have been persistent rumors, most often coming from ESPN’s Chris Mortenson, that Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis, will be moving on to become the offensive coordinator for the Florida Gators.

        There’s an open question as to why Weis would want to levee the playoff-bound Chiefs to go to a parallel position in college.  Gregg Rosenthal at profootballtalk.com speculates:

        “If there was an offensive coordinator of the year award, we’d vote for Charlie Weis of the Chiefs. Matt Cassel has played mistake-free football, Jamaal Charles might win the rushing title, and a long-struggling offensive line has turned things around.”

        “The only logical explanation of a Weis-Todd Haley break would be something personal.  (Weis wanting a lighter work schedule or to return to college?  Personality conflict?)”

        We’ll probably never know for sure.  But having said that, my guess would be the last.

        Its fairly obvious that Haley can be a difficult guy.  That was probably never so evident as when he was with the Bears.  When Haley took over as head coach of the Chiefs, Brad Biggs, then working for the Chicago Sun-Times, wrote an interesting article on Haley (which is no longer on the Sun-Times web site):

        “To think, in that last season with the Bears, offensive coordinator John Shoop tried to get Haley barred from offensive meetings, a power play that [former Bears head coach Dick] Jauron blocked.”

        Heaven knows no one is going to get criticism from me for giving Shoop a hard time.  He was in way over his head.  But nevertheless the quote demonstrates how tough Haley was to work with.  Given that Weis is apparently preparing to leave after such a wonderful season, I think the odds are good that Haley hasn’t changed.

        No Rush to Extend Lovie Smith’s Contract But Problems Don’t Begin With Him

        Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times notes that despite their success, there are no cries for a contract extention for Lovie Smith.  He thinks there shouldn’t be for a variety of reasons but the major one is that he just isn’t convinced Smith is a good coach:

        “Would the Bears be playing for a playoff berth today if they had had the injuries the Packers’ have dealt with this season?”

        The answer is possibly not.  But the truth is that there aren’t many coaches outside of New England (and apparently Green Bay) that could.  So unless Bill Belichick is about to come available, I don’t see that as a legitimate criticism.  You don’t just keep firing coaches until Bill Parcells falls into your lap.  But here’s the real point:

        “Smith might be the coach of the year in the NFC. But as well-deserved as that honor would be, let’s not forget it’s for 2010 only.”

        Indeed.  But in my opinion, Smith hasn’t just done it this year.  The truth is that – given the talent they’ve had – the Bears are competitive every year.  Not great, of course, but all things considered, competitive.  The Chicago Tribune‘s Dan Pompei quotes the numbers:

        “In Smith’s seven years with the Bears, he has won 63 regular-season games. Only seven clubs have won more over that period of time, and only two NFC teams. All but three have done it with more than one coach.”

        I’ve never believed that Smith is a bad head coach.  Its obvious that he wants to win badly enough to make the tough decisions and do what’s right.  If a head coach’s job is to manage players and assistant coaches, well kudos to him.  Since he became the head coach in 2004, the players have generally seemed to be motivated to play for him, they’ve generally liked him and, generally, they’ve had the right frame of mind to make plays for the team.  If his coaching staff has had a high turnover rate, give him credit for not settling and for continuing to search to find the right combination of assistants.  He certainly deserves credit for putting together an excellent staff this year.

        Smith’s teams haven’t been hanging around 0.500 the last few years because he’s a bad coach.  Its because the Bears haven’t drafted enough talent.  When, in the end, they had to go out and buy it, he’s come through with a pretty good season.  Yes, they’ve enjoyed good health and good luck.  But teams make their own luck and even with an average number of injuries, the odds are good this team would have performed.

        Smith has some problems.  He ‘s lousy in front of a camera and relations with the media obviously aren’t great.  In terms of his personality, I can’t say I’d miss him much if he were to be fired tomorrow.

        But if you ask me, the biggest problem he has is his general manager.  The one huge reservation I have about Smith is that he’s partnered with a guy in Jerry Angelo who hasn’t shown that he can draft talent at the teams most important positions (defensive end, left tackle, quarterback).  The Bears playmakers either were drafted previous to Angelo’s temper or have been bought by ownership.  Even Potash acknowledges this:

        “If the heat is on anybody at Halas Hall, it’s on general manager Jerry Angelo. This season has been more about the importance of playmakers than about the wizardry of Smith. If the Bears don’t draft difference-makers in addition to the complementary pieces Angelo has a knack for finding, this won’t last long.”

        Bottom line, I’m not calling for an immediate extension of Smith’s contract anymore than Potash is.  But its not because I expect Smith to be a “wizard”.  That’s not realistic.  It’s because I’m worried about the direction the entire organization, starting at the top.

        Bears Will Stay Healthy Against the Packers But Fans Might Be Hurting

        Rob Reischel, writing for the Chicago Tribune, describes the mind set of the Green Bay Packers going into Sunday’s game:

        “The Green Bay Packers are roughly 48 hours away from their biggest game of the season when they host the Bears on Sunday. If the Packers had their druthers, though, they’d play the game this minute.

        “‘Our football team is very excited to play,’ Packers coach Mike McCarthy said after Friday’s practice. ‘Everybody fully understands what’s at stake here, and it’s important for us to clearly stay focused on winning and playing the best that we possibly can for the whole game. It’s as simple as that. That’s the message. That’s the chatter in the locker room. That’s the vibe, and 3:15 can’t get here soon enough.'”

        I can only imagine.

        Now let’s contrast this with Michael C. Wright‘s report for ESPNChicago.com:

        “The Chicago Bears maintain they plan to play their starters for the duration Sunday, when they face the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, but multiple team sources revealed the staff has told some of the key backups to be ready.”

        “Throughout the week of preparation leading into Sunday’s contest, the Bears ramped up the repetitions of some of the key backups, such as tight end Kellen Davis and third-team running back Kahlil Bell, while telling others to be ready to contribute when called upon.”

        I’m not saying Smith is doing the wrong thing.  The Bears want to come out of this game healthy.  But the indications are that for the fans, this thing could be very painful.

        Mike Tice Makes Nice and Other News

        Bears

        • Packers nickel back Sam Shields insists he’ll play Sunday but he currently can run on a knee which has a mystery injury (via Tom Silverstein and Gary D’Amato of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).  Safety Atari Bigby has been ruled out for the game.
        • The Bears can probably expect a steady dose of full back John Kuhn this week.  Kuhn was the subject of this interesting feature from the AP.  Kuhn has been coming on since Ryan Grant went down for the Packers and, as Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune has pointed out, the Bears typically struggle with bigger, more physical backs.
        • It appears that the Bears are going to have to deal with more than the pass rush of outside linebacker Clay Mathews.  Mathews comments via Pete Dougherty at the Green Bay Press Gazette:

        “[Packers nose tackle] B.J. [Raji] is really starting to come into his own now. Sacks are like a drug, you want more. B.J.’s starting to get a taste of it, so he’s turning into a pretty good pass rusher.”

        Add the currently injured Cullen Jenkins to the mix when the playoffs start and the Packers are going to be even more of a hand full.  Jenkins is unlikely to start the Beas game but he hasn’t been ruled out.

        • Matt Bowen at the National Football Post gives his opinion on how much the Bears starters should play from the point of view of an ex-player.
        • Despite cries of “no respect” from players and fans, the Bears improvement on offense is starting to get some national attention.  Gregg Rosenthal at profootballtalk.com had some good things to say.
        • Biggs points out this interesting fact:

        “Veterans Chris Harris and Danieal Manning are expected to start Sunday at Lambeau Field and mark the first time the Bears have had safeties paired for an entire season since Tony Parrish and Mike Brown in 2001.”

        Elsewhere

        In fairness to the Packers fans, the negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement adds uncertainty to pretty much all off-season activities this year.

        • Greg Bishop at the New York Times emphasizes a dilemma that the Jets face which Bear fans will certainly recognize.
        • Vikings defensive tackle Pat Williams gave his always unique take on the movement of the Eagles game from Sunday to Tuesday to Tom Powers at the Pioneer Press:

        “‘This was the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever seen in my life,’ Pat Williams said. ‘It was b.s. Play the damn game. We should have played on Sunday.’

        “Pat was getting agitated. He’s spent the past four days eating Philly cheesesteaks and hanging around the team hotel.

        “‘Fan safety. Fan safety!’ he said. ‘The fans all left. They ain’t no good, anyway.'”

        “It starts with the head coach, as Andy Reid likes to say. That is more than boilerplate this time around. The Eagles came out being too cute by half — a shovel pass to DeSean Jackson, really? — against a team they should have been able to dispatch without resorting to such chicanery.”

        Easy to see who former Vikings head coach Brad Childress learned to formulate his offensive game plans from.

        “We’ve said for weeks that it’s dangerous to just throw away Kubiak’s effective offense when it has so much continuity.  Phillips may not be a great head coach, but he brings a lot to the table as a defensive play-caller.”

        I couldn’t gee more.  Some guys just aren’t cut out to be head coaches.  In truth, Kubiac may be one of them, too.  But he’ll be giving himself a better chance with Phillips being in charge of the defense.

        One Final Thought

        For the first time I can remember, maybe the first time ever, Mike Tice has something nice to say publicly about pass-happy Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz.  From Neil Hayes at the Chicago Sun-Times:

        “A lot of credit goes to Mike to be able to adjust on the go and call the game a little differently [since the bye week]. He’s done a great, great job. He’s really helped us get to where we are.”

        Its snowing in hell.

        Rookie Cap Proposal Needs Tweaking

        Mike Florio writes an interesting commentary on the state of the negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement.  He focuses upon a proposed rookie wage scale.  He runs the numbers and comes to this conclusion:

        “Thus, the truly big money will be paid out not in the first contract but in the second contract.  As a result, the goal will become to get to the second contract.  And to get to the second contract, a player will need to get into the league and start proving his worth.”

        His point is that the new system will cause more rookies to leave college early:

        “As one league source explained it to PFT on Thursday, more underclassmen will choose to leave, since improving their draft stock via an extra year of college football won’t translate into the big money that a big bump up the ladder would have triggered in the past.  The big money will now come once free agency approaches, and free agency won’t approach if the player opts for another year of play-for-no-pay.”

        This is a legitimate issue and one which the league would be well advised to avoid.  How?

        If the goal is to get to the second contract, then higher round picks should be signed to shorter rookie deals.  That gets them to free agency quicker and provides the player with the needed incentive to stay in school and improve his draft stock.  A player might “play-for-no-pay” for an extra year but, effectively, it could still count as progress towards free agency and, given the extra skill level acquired, could make sticking around at a university worthwhile.

        Will the owners actually do this?  Very doubtful.  The current system allows teams that draft well to have sustained success and, in theory, allows better organizations to compete effectively under a cap.  Organizations that draft well are going to want to be able to continue to keep those players under their rookie contract.  Even with restricted free agency there’s a good chance that such a team could lose an impact player.

        But the league can’t have its cake and eat it, too.  If its serious about making sure that its money only goes to players that have shown they can earn it, its going to have to give in on something.  This might be the only answer.

        What’s Really Scary about the New England Patriots? They’re Actually “Rebuilding”.

        As good as the NFC North is going to be next year, the Bears should be grateful they aren’t in a division with the New England Patriots, a team who won a tough AFC East division and are dominating the NFL while rebuilding.  Kristian R. Dyer comments at The New York Times:

        “In its two-deep, New England counts 6 starters and 21 players total with fewer than three years in the N.F.L. This makes them the youngest A.F.C. team in this year’s playoffs.”

        This a result of an interesting apparent philosophy:

        “Dave Shonka, a former scout with the Eagles, Redskins and Chiefs, said: ‘Quality depth management is a Patriot technical term for throwing spaghetti on the wall to see what sticks. With misses like first- and second-rounders such as Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson, playing the numbers game is less expensive. Of course, all this roster management would not be possible without a sixth-round pick in the 2000 draft named Tom Brady –- he was a noodle that stuck on the wall.’”

        But that’s not all:

        “The future for the Patriots looks awfully bright. They hold six picks in the first three rounds of the draft; the Jets hold two in those rounds. With nine picks next April, New England is poised to add even more young talent.”

        I’m really proud of what the Bears coaching staff has accomplished this year, especially Mike Tice who has apparently done an incredible job with a young offensive line.  If the staff stays together, it bodes well for the future.

        But these guys have got nothing on Bill Belichick.  The current state of the New England Patriots is nothing short of amazing.  The Bears are eventually going to suffer.  Many of their impact players are aging and they simply haven’t drafted well enough to guarantee sustain success.  It’s hard to do.

        In contrast, I’ve never seen a healthier franchise than the Patriots, who dominated the Bears three weeks ago and who have been generally dominating everyone this season.  We truly are witnessing one of the rarest things in sports – the beginnings of a true dynasty.  Thank goodness the Bears don’t have to play them twice a year.

        Bears Players Talk Turf – Serenity Now!

        The Alcoholics Anonymous Serenity Prayer contains a message that can apply to anyone as they deal with problems thought life.  It goes like this:

        “God grant us the serenity to accept the things we cannot change, courage to change the things we can, and wisdom to know the difference.”

        Its a valuable message and one which the Bears players probably need to be able to apply when it comes to the turf at Soldier Field.  First quarterback Jay Cutler, now linebacker Brian Urlacher.  Urlacher cut loose on the Soldier Field footing yesterday (via Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune):

        “I don’t know about the beat-up part, but the footing at Soldier Field has been horrible,” Urlacher said. “We’ve all seen that. If you watch us on film, our D-line slipped.

        “We’re a fast team and when you get us on a surface like that, it takes a little bit of our speed. Health-wise I think we’re OK if we’re playing fast. But the field has been so bad we haven’t been able to do what we normally do.”

        I’m pretty tired of hearing about this.  As Urlacher points out, both teams play on the surface.  The Bears players just have to be quiet and deal with it.  I find it to be disturbing that they are letting the state of the their own stadium’s turf get into their heads to distract them from the task at hand.

        More interesting to me is finding a solution to the problem.  In this respect, the varied statements we get from through the media don’t help.

        As I blogged at the time, he Chicago Sun-Times said this just a few weeks ago:

        “Nobody is expecting changes at Soldier Field any time soon. Team president Ted Phillips has said he’s awaiting ongoing studies on player safety before making any decisions. The park district maintains the stadium as a multipurpose venue, and other events require grass fields.”

        “Hybrid surfaces such as the one at Lambeau Field aren’t practical at such a busy venue, which means the status quo may be the best — and only — alternative.”

        But Brad Biggs, writing for the National Football Post, said something different yesterday:

        “The park district would like to install an artificial surface because it would save money quickly and be able to do much more with the stadium. The Bears, for the time being at least, prefer a natural grass surface. Not all of the players are in favor of that, though.”

        Dan Pompei, also at the Tribune, seemed to agree in May:

        “The Park District is all for a change to an infill surface — it’s the Bears who are not on board. The Park District could get around the soccer issue by have a grass field rolled over the infill for special events. This is done in some stadiums. You are correct in that the Park District does make money on concerts at Soldier Field, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t want to make more money from soccer events.”

        but then he also wrote this about the latest hybrid surfaces:

        “The Eagles and Steelers tried (the hybrid surface used at Lambeau), had problems and had to go back to natural grass. The problem with this type of surface at Soldier Field is it might not hold up to the wear and tear–especially when you consider the stadium, unlike Lambeau Field, also stages events other than Bears games. And if you have problems with it, there is no way to re-sod. You’d have to replace the entire field. As for whether or not the surface is more safe than any other surface, the real answer is no one knows.”

        So which is it?  Does the Park District want artificial turf or doesn’t it?  Does the Park District even know what it wants?

        For that matter, though the Bears have been consistent in saying they are awaiting the results of studies being conducted, I’m not sure how useful those studies are going to be.  Turf is improving all the time and whatever the studies conclude, there almost certainly won’t be enough of it about hybrid surfaces like the one at Lambeau in Green Bay.  And even if there was could the park district even use it?  Pompei obviously doesn’t think so.

        So when we look at the complaints of the players and at the reasons why this has been allowed to become a distraction, part of the problem might be that the players haven’t gotten a firm message from the organization or the city about what can be done, should be done or will be done.  As the Serenity Prayer above implies, people who have their heads on straight tend to turn their minds to the task at hand once they realize that a decision has been made and the situation is out of their hands.  Instead, the players think that by talking about it, they can influence the situation.  And in talking about it, they continue to think about it.

        I understand that this is a multifaceted story.  Clearly player safety has to come first.  But in the absence of clear data on the subject and in the likelihood of its  continued absence, what’s best for the venue long term comes next on the list.  A logical, consistent message from the powers involved might really help the fans, not to mention the players, sort out where everyone stands on the issue.