Bear(ing) the News – A Chicago Bears Blog

Lorin Cox at USA Today draws some conclusions from the data at Pro Football Focus:

“Vic Fangio’s pass rush won on stunts and twists”

“The Bears weren’t one of the teams that used them the most often, but they ranked fifth in pressure rate when using stunts, affecting the quarterback on 45.6 percent of these plays.

“That’s pressuring the quarterback on almost every other stunt. It helps having athletic pass rushers like Leonard Floyd and Akiem Hicks (respective to their positions) who can be tough to block when they’re on the move.”

This tendency of the Bears defense to use stunts so effectively may be why they are a bit more comfortable with what is at best a mediocre group of pass rushers heading into the 2018 season.

Having said that, one of the things you notice when you watch the Bears is that Floyd almost never gets pressure unless he’s running a stunt. There were a notable exceptions but for the most part Fangio schemed to get him free.

If the Bears are going to have success this season, Floyd is going to have to have more success when he finds himself one-on-one with blockers on the outside.

Lorin Cox at USA Today doesn’t think the Bears offense will be any quicker to snap the ball this year.

Last year under John Fox and offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, the Bears’ offense was the NFL’s slowest in terms of the time it took to snap the ball, according to Football Outsiders (via The Ringer).

However, [new Bears head coach Matt] Nagy’s Kansas City Chiefs were actually the second-slowest to snap the ball, just ahead of the Bears.

It’s worth remembering that Nagy hired former Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich to help bring some spread concepts to the offense. Along with that may be a renewed commitment to a hurry up offense, at least in spots. It may not be enough to make a huge difference statistically but this is something that Nagy, himself, has said he’d like to do depending upon the opponent.

Are we going to see the kind of speed offense that Helfrich ran at Oregon? No. But Nagy wouldn’t have hired him unless they has a simpatico vision for how the offense would run and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Nagy brought the no huddle to the offense more than his mentor, Andy Reid did in Kansas City.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Once upon a time, a Bears receiver named Brandon Marshall reminded us that he’s 6-foot-5 and that there weren’t many defensive backs out there that could match up. He and Alshon Jeffrey were supposed to be a mismatch nightmare tandem for seasons on end. Alas, that wasn’t to be. While I’m as excited as the next fan about the offense’s potential, I worry about the shorties catching the ball: [Taylor] Gabriel, [Anthony] Miller and Tarik Cohen. That said, wouldn’t it be ideal for [Allen] Robinson and Kevin White, both 6-3, to start on the outside with Gabriel filling in where he naturally fits, in the slot? I keep hearing that Gabriel and Miller can play outside. Seems like a recipe for Cutler-esque interceptions to me. – Greg M., South Side

“I wouldn’t put [Jay] Cutler’s propensity to turn the ball over on the Bears having short wide receivers in the past. I think the Bears have a good blend of skill position players when you think about skill sets and where coach Matt Nagy can line them up on the field to attack opposing defenses. I think Gabriel and Miller have the ability to play inside and outside and remember that the slot receiver is as important as ever in today’s NFL. [Mitch] Trubisky did a nice job of minimizing turnovers last season. He threw only seven interceptions in 12 games. I don’t know that the height of Gabriel and Cohen is a reason to think picks will pile up. Keep in mind that Miller measured 5-foot-11 at the scouting combine.”

I agree with Biggs that the height of the Bears receivers in recent years had little to do with turnovers. But I think it had a definite effect on the offense as a whole. From the very first year that he arrived in Chicago, Cutler made it clear that he preferred larger receivers, for instance, when he characterized former Bears speedster Johnny Knox Devin Hester as “not a go and and get it, guy”. Cutler wasn’t trying to be openly critical about it and he didn’t indicate that he was uncomfortable with Knox. But it was evident that larger receivers was what he was used to and that’s what he wanted. It wasn’t a coincidence that the first guy he befriended in Chicago was the biggest receiver on the field, 6’5” tight end Greg Olsen. The same thing happened in Miami when he hit the field and immediately sought out the 6’3” DeVante Parker. Cutler was far more comfortable with big receivers who could fight for a 50:50 ball in the air.

In a similar vein, I think what the Green Bay Packers did this off-season was interesting. The Packers are facing far more man coverage than they used to nowadays. For instance, Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio prefers this kind of coverage and we can anticipate that new Lions head coach Matt Patricia will prefer to run the same kind of defense he did in New England.

The Packer’s response? Sign the 6’7” Jimmy Graham at tight end and draft a huge group of wide receivers in J’Mon Moore (6’3”), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6’4”), and Equanimeous St. Brown (6’5”) to go with the 6’3” Geronimo Allison. As I pointed out on a recent podcast, these players are going to present huge match up problems for teams who don’t have the corner backs and safeties to match up with them in coverage.

Having said that, I do think there’s a reasonable chance that Trubisky will handle an offense with shorter receivers better than Cutler did. For one thing, as the fan who wrote the question points out, if White and Robinson both turn out to be good, he won’t have to make due with those shorter receivers all the time in every situation. For another, he has an offensive head coach in Matt Nagy who should know how to take advantage of the better speed and agility that shorter receivers tend to have.

When the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Antonio Brown, I’m sure many fans moaned about the fact that he was only 5’10” and predicted that he’d be strictly a slot receiver. We know how that worked out. Similarly, I think we won’t know too much about the Bears current configuration until we give them a chance to succeed.

It’s going to be an interesting summer and there’s a lot to look forward to as we all observe what the Bears do. Leave it to Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune to provide just enough insight into the state of the team heading into training camp.

Biggs provides a pretty comprehensive look at the questions that we’ll all be looking for answers to this year by pointing to 10 of them. The whole article is worth reading but I’ll briefly state them here:

1. Is Mitch Trubisky the real deal?
2. Can the Bears finally stay healthy?
3. Is there enough talent and depth at outside linebacker?
4. Can Allen Robinson regain form?
5. Will the secondary have stickier hands?
6. Is Jordan Howard a good fit for the scheme?
7. Can Kyle Fuller replicate an outstanding season?
8. Will right guard Kyle Long return healthy and remain healthy?
9. Is Trey Burton ready to be a playmaker?
10. How will Matt Nagy juggle play-calling duties with being a head coach?

This was a good article and one I’ll keep handy as I consider how the Bears summer is progressing. Having said that, I’ve got a couple more. I’ve actually already addressed the first in previous article, “What impact will the fact that Nagy is a first time head coach with limited experience even as a coordinator have on the team?”.

The second one has occurred to me more and more as more information has leaked out about the new offense and how it will work. “How quickly can the players get up to speed with a new offense?”

This question has more than the usual amount significance this year with this team. The reason is the complexity of the offense that Nagy is bringing to the Bears. It is going to require not only an inexperienced quarterback in Trubisky to read the defense correctly, it is, more than usual (for the Bears), going to require the receivers to do so as well. This means that everyone has to be on the same page not only when the ball is snapped but after the defense starts moving. Cliff Harris at behindthesteelcurtain.com explains.

“The most obvious way a QB and a receiver need to be “on the same page” is by understanding coverages. Teams tend to structure their passing concepts with built-in adjustments to the coverage they’re getting. If a defense presents cover-2 (two deep defenders), the outside receiver might run a vertical route to force one of the deep defenders to get all the way to the sideline to cover him. If it’s cover-3, however (three deep defenders), that vertical will not work. There are too many deep defenders to throw down the sideline here. Therefore, the outside receiver will convert his vertical route to an out or a comeback at 12-15 yards… If the quarterback or the receiver fail to properly diagnose the coverage and/or don’t know the proper adjustment, it can result in a sack, an interception, or one of those really ugly throws to nowhere that leaves the fans thinking, Who the hell was that to?

“Pro defenses do a great job of disguising coverages, so it’s rarely as simple as depicted above.”

This goes far beyond simply recognizing a blitz and running a hot route. The proper adjustments are going to have to be made quickly and everyone is going to have to react correctly.

To my knowledge the Bears haven’t tried to implement an offense this complicated in a very long time. I may be understating the complexity of the offenses we’ve seen since then but the last coordinator that I know tried to implement anything like this was John Shoop way back in the days when Dick Jauron was the head coach. At that time it was a total disaster and we have rarely seen an offense as uncoordinated as that one since then.

In fairness, even back in those days, the scheme wasn’t the only problem. The Bears flat out lacked talent and the receivers frequently struggled to get off of the line of scrimmage.

Nevertheless, it was common to see the quarterback throw the ball to one spot while the receiver was going to another. If they were lucky the ball went out of bounds or fell harmlessly to the ground. If they weren’t, a defender would be the only guys to be where the ball ended up going and an interception resulted.

I’m certainly not comparing Nagy to Shoop. But what I am wondering is if the Bears are going to be able to avoid those problems as they try to learn this offense and act get together as a unit to make it work. For an offense to execute, all 11 guys have to do their job correctly. The more complicated it is, the less likely it is that will be the case.

A lot is going to depend on how quickly the players can pick the offense up and, especially, how well it’s taught. If the new coaches, who are just learning the scheme themselves, can’t convey the necessary information in a way that makes it easy for the players to pick up, the offense may never be executed to its potential. Its going to be a terrible eye sore if that turns out to be the case.

Realistically it’s possible – and perhaps likely – that we may be in for some ugly offensive football early in the season next year. Perhaps it will eventually emerge as something beautiful. And perhaps not. Like the questions above, it will be a situation that will be worth keeping an eye on.

Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune quotes Bears head coach Matt Nagy after a recent practice on the difficulties involved in getting the Bears new offense up and running:

“[The Bears players] understand that in Kansas City it took us five years to get (where) we got to. We’re kind of at a pace right now where we have to, at times, pull back and say to yourself: we’re months into this thing, not years. The more reps we can get in practice — whether it’s … splits, alignments, shifts, motions — the more they can see themselves doing it. That’s what we want.”

There’s a lot to like about the hiring of Nagy but there’s one inescapable fact about it that should bother anyone who follows the team. Nagy is a yet another Bears first-time head coach. He’s one in a long line of them over the last 24 years that includes Dave Wannstedt, Dick Jauron, Lovie Smith, and Marc Trestman. Over that period of time, only John Fox had previous coaching experience. Indeed, the only truly successful coach the Bears have had in that time since Mike Ditka was Smith. That’s not at all unusual. Bill Belichick, the greatest head coach in NFL history, didn’t get it right until the second time around in New England after failing as a first time head coach n Cleveland.

Each of these coaches had to learn on the job and Nagy will be no different. What makes his job even more challenging is his inexperience. He has, for instance, only called plays for half a season.

But by far the most worrisome part of his learning process will be figuring out the best way to install a new offense, something he’s never done before on his own. Nagy spent his entire coaching career under veteran head coach and offensive guru Andy Reid, who served as the defacto offensive coordinator. Nagy has never served as an offensive coordinator on a team where he was basically in charge.

You would expect under the circumstances that Nagy would follow Reid’s example as closely as possible. But he doesn’t appear that he’s doing that, at least not entirely. Backup quarterback Chase Daniel played for the Chiefs in 2013, Reid’s first year as head coach. Daniel estimates the Bears have installed 10 times as many plays as the Chiefs had in the spring that first year.

Nagy’s purpose is apparently to keep feeding quarterback Mitchell Trubisky as fast as possible to see how much he can handle. But it’s not just Trubisky. It’s the 10 other guys on the field with him. And they all have to do their jobs in order for the offense to run. Even assuming Trubisky can handle it, what are the chances all of the other guys can as well? Could Nagy’s impatience to get as much of the offense as possible installed as quickly as possible cost the Bears in the long run? Who knows?

Nagy is doing everything for the first time and there’s no guarantee that everything he does is going to work well. In fact, history shows that it’s quite the opposite. And Bears fans are just going to have to be patient and live with the mistakes. Again.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Best case scenario if everything goes right and the Bears stay healthy this year … what does that look like and translate into around wins and playoffs? — @illini_loyalty

“The over/under on victories for the Bears opened at 6.5 in Las Vegas, meaning the oddsmakers aren’t as bullish about the new Bears as many fans. Certainly I see a chance for the Bears to hit the over and, yes, they will probably need better fortune when it comes to injuries. They’re going to have to be significantly better than 6.5 to play in January when you figure it generally takes 10 wins to get in. The first thing to focus on is how many teams the Bears can pass in the division. They’ve been terrible in the NFC North, and getting better in the division is the first hurdle to clear. Is there a division foe that is due to backslide? Are there two division foes due to backslide? It’s going to be interesting.”

First of all, lets get this out of the way, first: Unless Mitch Trubisky turns out to be Peyton Manning – and I mean every bit that good – there’s no way the Bears smell the playoffs.

Having said that, the reason is three fold. Though they are getting better in both areas, the first two are obvious. First, they lack impact players. Second, they lack depth.

The third is a bit of a surprise, at least to me: they play in the toughest division in football. You wouldn’t actually think so. For one thing, the Bears are in it. For another, the Lions are in it. Both teams were bad enough to have switched head coaches at the end of last year and both now have rookie head coaches who are learning on the job.

But here’s the thing: the people who are actually in the business of predicting these things don’t agree with me. The over-unders for win totals for each team is in the table below along with the average for each division.

The NFC North leads the pack with the NFC South a close second. No one else is within half a game.

So I suppose the next time we point out that the Bears were (cough are cough) winless in the division, we should remember what division they’re in and cut them a little slack. A very little slack.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Will the Bears finally have a Pro Bowl player this year? Seems like there are some defensive guys who could make it. If the offense performs better, I think that also helps the defense become a top-five defense. — @mdprice79

“Pro Bowl voting is done by fans, players and coaches, with all counting one-third in the process. Players on winning teams generally fare much better in balloting. Players on winning teams get more exposure. They’re talked about more. They do better at the polls. If the Bears can reverse their pattern of losing, they will likely have some more popular players when it comes to the Pro Bowl.”

This is, of course, quite true, especially in the fan balloting. But as Biggs knows, this isn’t the whole story.  It’s just that only cynical bloggers attack football organizations during the optimistic, rainbows and roses months like May.

The Bears once again this year have not a single player in the NFL Network’s top 100. This is based strictly upon player voting and though I’m sure being on a winning team helps, you can’t tell me that if you are on one of the 13 teams that studied and played the Bears that its going to influence you that much. If there’s a player that you are game planning around during the season and he’s not a total jerk, he’s going to make your list.

The last Bears player to make this list was Matt Forte in 2016 coming in at a lack luster #90. Since 2015 when he arrived not a single Ryan Pace draft pick or free agent signing has made the list.  Like this year, no one at all made it last year.

That’s not just lack of popularity, my friends. That’s flat out lack of talent and no matter how you cut it, the responsibility lies squarely in Pace’s lap.

New Bears rookie offensive lineman James Daniels talks about why it may be better for him to play guard this year:

“’(Guard) is hard, but you don’t have to make the calls and you don’t have to snap, which are two things centers do that people don’t realize how hard it is,’ Daniels said. ’So I’m not saying (guard) is easier, but it’s just different from playing center.

“’(Friday), I barely knew the calls myself, so I could find the Mike (linebacker), but that’s about it. I couldn’t make any of the blocking combos or anything like that.”’

My first instinct was to assume that this move to guard for Daniels was permanent. And maybe it still will be if he turns out to be really good there. But even if that isn’t the case, the reasons why putting him at guard is a smart move are becoming clear.

I like the way the new Bears coaching staff is thinking these things through.