The Bears Deserve to Be Long Shots to Win the Division

Las Vegas sportsbook.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune on how the Bears are percieved outside of Chicago:

“It remains to be seen how deep the belief is outside of the region in the Bears’ ability to repeat. Remember, Poles’ goal was to “take the North” and never give it back. Fanatics Sportsbook on Tuesday had the Detroit Lions as the +170 favorite to win the division, followed by the Green Bay Packers at +210, the Bears at +310 and the Minnesota Vikings at +575.

“That’s probably due in part to the volume of late-game heroics that propelled the Bears in 2025. Internally, they know there are areas that need improvement and more consistency.”

“If you’re looking for a chip to put on some shoulders, that’s a good one right there: You’re third in odds to win a division you won last year.”

 

That’s fair enough.  But objectively, there’s good reason to doubt whether the Bears can repeat what they did last year.  And it goes beyond improving their consistency and their penchant for winning one-score games.

 

We’ve heard many times about how turnovers are not something you can depend upon year to year.  The Bears had not one, but two players who had a career year (Nashon Wright), or a near career year (Kevin Byard).  Both are gone this season.

 

But the real reason to be worried about the Bears’ chances is that they won only 2 games within the division last year.  And one of those was a miracle, once-in-a-generation comeback against the Packers. The Bears scored an average of 20.5 points per game against division opponents Vs. 28.9 oveall against the league. I have to believe that every team that the Bears are scheduled to play will be looking at what the division did to stop their offense last year and, whatever that was, they will all be doing it.

 

I’m sure the Bears are looking to evolve and make adjustments.  And I’m sure they are very aware of their struggles against the division.  But unless they improve that divisional record with a first-place schedule against the rest of the league, I can’t help but think that third place is about right.  Or worse.

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