ESPN Predicts that the Bears Will Go 0-16. Let’s Start Planning the Parade Now!

Of all the “news” that the NFL releases to great fan fare throughout the year, I’ve always found revealing the league schedule to be the most worthless. Not that it isn’t important – fans all over the country are planning trips around games so they can see their teams. It’s just that all of the all of the who-ha is so over done.

Of all of the things that are traditionally done with this piece of news, the game-by-game prediction for the season for each individual team perhaps is the worst. Predicting wins and losses for an NFL season when anything can happen on any given Sunday and teams routinely go from miserable to the playoffs in one offseason is almost totally without merit.

Having said that, this exercise does give you a chance to see what the rest of the NFL thinks of your team. You can look at what beat writers outside of your area are predicting and get a pretty good feel for what expectations are. ESPN, in particular, provides a glimpse as they require each of their beat writers to do a game-by-game prediction.

So what do the writers outside of the Chicago think of the Bears’ chances this year? Not much. ESPN writers have predicted that the Bears – get this – will go 0-16 next year!

That’s right, according to ESPN we’re in for a season for the ages. On a schedule that includes the Jets, Giants, and Tampa Bay, not one NFL win.

Here’s how it breaks down:

Packers – L
Seahawks – L
Cardinals – L
Buccaneers – L
Dolphins – L
Patriots – L
Jets – L
Bills – L
Lions – L
Vikings – L
Lions – L
Giants – L
Rams – L
Packers – L
49ers – L
Vikings – L

For what it’s worth (not much), Bears neat writer Jeff Dickerson has the Bears going 7-9 after beating the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jets, Giants, 49ers and splitting with the Lions.

Given what the other beat writers think of the Bears, I’d say we can take that as an upper limit. But even a cynic like me doesn’t see 0-16. It takes the collective genius of an ESPN hive-mind to predict that.

Thankfully, Nagy Can’t Be “Candid” About What He Doesn’t Know

Adam Jahns at the Chicago Sun-Times on new head coach Matt Nagy’s apparent lack of willingness to talk about the Bears position in the 2018 NFL draft.

“As candid and open as Bears coach Matt Nagy was during his news conferences at his first mini-camp, he remained tight-lipped about one subject.

Don’t ask Nagy too much about the NFL Draft because he won’t say too much.

“He’ll be as sly as a John Fox.

“What’s Nagy’s sense for the caliber of players who could be available at No. 8?

“’You can ask [general manager] Ryan [Pace] that one,’ Nagy said with smile. ’He’s the expert.”’

A couple things here.

First, though it was subtle in this case, I’m tired of hearing Jahns and others bash John Fox for his unwillingness to give anything away by talking too much to the local press.

It doesn’t make its way into the papers, themselves, that much if for no other reason than because a good editor wouldn’t allow it. But the complaints have been rampant on any podcast many of these guys spend any time on and they haven’t entirely stopped with Fox’s firing.

I get it. He made your job a little more difficult. But I don’t want to hear you whine about your problems any more than you would want me to walk into the newsroom and spend 10 minutes every week whining about mine.

Fox was afraid to say too much and said too little as a result. Again, I get it. But his first job was to win. Providing story lines for the press was secondary.

I might add that although Nagy might be saying more, he’s not that much better than Fox or any other head coach in the NFL.

When asked about the fact that defensive end Leonard Floyd wasn’t able to participate in last week’s mini-camp, Nagy played dumb, claimed he wasn’t concerned, that he didn’t know where Floyd was at in his recovery and that it was something for the training staff.

Your best outside linebacker and practically the only decent pass rusher currently on the roster sprained his knee, couldn’t play the last six games of the season and now, four months after the last game, he can’t even participate in a mini-camp. And you aren’t concerned? You haven’t spoken to anyone about where he’s at in his recovery? Really?

Wow, how candid. Gee, what a breath of fresh air. [eyes rolling]

Give me a break.

Second, on the more positive side, Nagy’s non-comment on the draft does signal something that I like to see. It means that the organization is probably leaving the draft to Pace. Not that Nagy doesn’t have input. He absolutely should. You don’t want your coaching staff stuck with players they don’t believe in.

But in the end, you want the draft to be in the hands of the people who spend their entire year preparing for it. And if you are Pace, you should certainly play your cards close to the vest and keep everyone, including Nagy, on a need to know basis. He did that last year, apparently not telling Fox he was drafting Trubisky until the last minute. And rightfully so, as Fox apparently had a habit of running to his friends in the media with such information. Nagy might or might not be better but no one can leak information they don’t have.

In this respect, the Bears are running the organization the way it should be run.

Rashaad Coward Move to Guard Shows the Right Kind of Thinking

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Can you give us a little information about Rashaad Coward moving to guard? How often do things like this work out? I can’t think of any Bears moving positions like this in recent history. Curious what they saw in Coward. — @djjaco10

“When the Bears were strapped for offensive linemen in practice last season, they briefly moved Coward to the other side of the ball. He caught the attention of the organization at that point. There was discussion during the offseason about what to do with the undrafted player from Old Dominion, who appeared in one game for the Bears as a rookie. Should they allow him to compete at nose guard as a potential role player behind {Eddie Goldman} or give him a shot with a position switch? The decision was made to flip him to guard. It’s certainly interesting, given his 6-foot-5, 320-pound frame and his ability to move. There’s no question it will take some time, and position switches for undrafted players are long shots. Let’s be realistic: The odds already are stacked against undrafted players. The Bears liked the way Coward worked last season, though. A similar transition worked for the team with former defensive tackle-turned-right tackle James “Big Cat” Williams — although that was a quarter-century ago.”

This move caught my eye as well and I consider it to be a good sign.

I’m not a big fan of the this head coaching hire. Head coach Matt Nagy was an offensive coordinator for only two years and he’s called plays for only a half of a season. He’s never installed an offense.

But one thing a new head coach brings, especially a young one, is new ideas and (slightly) outside the box thinking. This is an example of that. Need a left guard? Don’t necessarily think the guy you have can do the job of that you’ll get a good draft pick? Why not look at the players at other positions and see who you can try?

Coward has the right body type and he won’t need to be as athletic at guard as he would have at defensive tackle. He wasn’t going to start there and you really aren’t losing that much defensively. On the other hand, if the team is very lucky, he might at guard.

I like it. I like it a lot.

Many Factors to Consider When Thinking About Bears Decision Not to Match the Offer For Cam Meredith

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Can you please explain this whole restricted free-agent thing? So the Bears tendered an offer to Cameron Meredith. He goes looking for an offer sheet. What would have happened if no one made him an offer? Does he remain a Bear? Does he have other options? I’m trying to make sense of all this talk of Ryan Pace messing up with the tender level he offered to Meredith. Did he really mess up? Should he have offered a higher tender? Did he misjudge Meredith’s worth on the open market? Or was this the right tender level to make? — John J., Parts Unknown

“Restricted free agents are players with three accrued seasons. An accrued season is defined as one with six or more regular-season games with the team. Yes, time on injured reserve counts toward this. Many of the players that become RFAs were undrafted when they entered the NFL, like Meredith. That is because draft picks are signed to four-year contracts and when a player has four accrued seasons, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. An an RFA, Meredith was allowed to shop for offers (an offer sheet specifically) from other teams. If no one had offered Meredith an offer sheet, his only option would have been to sign the tender the Bears made him at $1.9 million and play for them this season. Had the Bears elected to place a second-round tender on Meredith at a cost of $2.9 million, it’s safe to say no team would have signed him to an offer sheet because they would have had to fork over a second-round pick as compensation. At the original-round compensation ($1.9 million), the Bears receive no compensation because Meredith was undrafted. If the Bears misevaluated anything here, I think they figured other teams would not make Meredith an offer based on the medical evaluation of his knee. Obviously, there’s a difference of opinion between the Bears and the Saints when it comes to the health of his knee and his value in the immediate future — this season and in 2019. If Meredith is productive in New Orleans in 2018, it will be fair to say the Bears made an error by not using the second-round tender to secure him. You also have to consider what his projected role in the offense would be. Allen Robinson is the clear No. 1 and he’s also recovering from a knee injury but one that is not quite as involved (one ligament damaged as opposed to two). Taylor Gabriel has been paid big money and the Bears insist they will have plenty of work for three tight ends. Figure they also keep a fullback — the Chiefs have used one in their offense — and you have a lot of skill-position players in the mix.”

It appears that they believe that Meredith was simply not a lock to make the roster. That could either be because of the knee injury or because he only had one productive season and they weren’t convinced he could stain that production. One or both seems to me to be most likely.

Having said that there are other potential reasons.

The Bears are already committing a lot of cap to the receivers. Without Meredith, the Bears are committing the fourth most cap dollars to wide receiver league-wide. Some teams don’t believe in sinking an excessive amount of cap into one position regardless of the overall cap situation. That could be a factor.

I was listening to Hub Arkush at Pro Football Weekly on a podcast and he brought up the possibility that the Bears made this decision because they are depending upon former first round pick Kevin White to be the second wide receiver (with Robinson as #1 and Gabriel as the slot receiver). Physically Meredith and White are similar.

I would find that last thought to be disturbing for all kinds of reasons, not the least of which is that White apparently didn’t look very good even before the injury last year. The thought that Pace would be so stubborn about protecting his former first round pick as to actually deceive himself into thinking the Bears could depend upon him this year is not a very happy one for the future of the franchise under the GM.

There’s a lot about this I don’t like. We’ll know if the Bears made the correct evaluation when we see what Meredith does for the Saints this year.

Welp. At Least the Bears Future Doesn’t Depend on Mike Maccagnan.

Manish Mehta at the New York Daily News answers your questions:

“Did they trade three second-rounders to move up three slots to take a pipsqueak QB from a spread offense? They should be sued for gross negligence if that is the case. — @BigOliveri

“The Jets quarterback decision is absolutely fascinating. My understanding is that it’s a fluid and complicated situation. Shortly after Gang Green traded with the Colts to jump up to the No. 3 spot a couple weeks ago, I touched base with folks on One Jets Drive to get a better handle on the motivation behind the deal.

“The people in the organization that I spoke to loved Baker Mayfield’s fire, competitiveness and leadership, but thought he was a tick below Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen at that time. However, they cautioned that there was still an important part of the evaluation process that included Pro Days — and more importantly — the impending private workouts and visits to Florham Park.

“Make no mistake: The Jets are currently divided on which quarterback to take at No. 3. Oh, sure. The team will invariably try to sell us that (INSERT DRAFTED QB HERE) was the top choice all along, but I’ve heard enough varying opinions about these four quarterbacks from inside the organization to know better.”

“If you would have told me on April 4, 2016, that the Jets would have drafted Christian Hackenberg in the second round, I would have called you coo-coo for Cocoa Puffs since just about nobody other than the GM wanted to take the Penn State quarterback that high.”

First, Mehta is one of my favorite NFL writers outside of Chicago. I subscribe to the Daily News in the Apple News app on my iPad more or less just to read his articles. He’s pretty funny and often spot on.

I, too, thought general manager Mike Maccagnan’s selection of Hackenberg in the second round of the 2016 NFL draft was “coo-coo for Cocoa Puffs”. Although I usually settle for the more mundane “insane”. Hackenberg was a fourth round flier if I ever saw one and to set him up as the potential franchise quarterback there was pretty nuts and I did say so at the time.

The specter of the Hackenberg selection has to be still with you if you are a Jets fan for a couple reasons.

First, Hackenberg was selected for his physical characteristics – big, tall player with an arm to match but not the production. So stiff that he was strictly a pocket quarterback with little mobility. If you are guessing which player in the draft matches that profile, its probably Allen. He’s more athletic than Hackenberg but he’s got a big arm, worked from the pocket in a pro-style offense but lacked production and accuracy. If you are a “he’s got all the physical characteristics and we can coach him up” guy, as Maccagnan appears to be, then he’s the guy to keep an eye on there. Rosen would be a close second as he appears to be the quarterback who projects to be the best pocket quarterback.

Second, and this is the biggie, if a guy who selected Hackenberg is still there to select your franchise quarterback this year, you have to be quaking in your boots. You’d better hope that past history doesn’t predict future results because that was not a decision that inspires confidence.

Most people I know around the league actually pity Bears fans. I pity Jets fans.*

 

*OK, and Browns fans.  But that’s it.

Would the Bears Trade Jordan Howard?

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

What’s up with these Jordan Howard trade rumors again? He deleted every picture off of his Instagram relating to the Bears, how serious might this situation be? — @zberg034

You might be better off asking the folks who produced the rumors to get a better answer on the speculation surrounding his future. There were a ton of inquiries about Howard on Wednesday and to my knowledge, there’s nothing going on with Howard’s roster status. I don’t follow Howard on the Instagram machine so I can’t speak specifically to what was there before. You learn to never say never and not be surprised by a whole lot, but right now I don’t believe anything is happening with the running back.

I also am not an Instagram guy as I feel like I’m forced to give away enough of my information already. But having said that, this does sound like a “where there’s smoke, there’s fire” situation.

Let’s be honest. Howard has a tough time holding on to passes and he’s going to be expected to be able to catch them in the offense under new head coach Matt Nagy. I’ve heard it said that with Tarik Cohen and Benny Cunningham on the roster that the position is “well rounded” with each back having a role. But I don’t buy that. You can’t limit the play call nor can you provide potential tips to the defense based upon what back is lined up.

Cohen is going to have to become better at catching the ball and I would not too shocked to see the Bears take a running back in the draft if the right one fell their way. At that point, you’d look for them to trade Howard. In fact, it wouldn’t be too surprising if Howard had already gotten word about a deal that the Bears had worked out ahead of the draft, hence the deleted pictures.

Personally, I hope this doesn’t happen. First I think the pass catching weakness is overblown and that it’s entirely possible that some good coaching could make Howard at least adequate out of the backfield. Second, as much as I value pass catching out of the backfield, its hard to find a good, powerful back with the vision that Howard has. They don’t seem to me to just fall out of trees.

But the Bears may have something else in mind.

The Bears Need to Think Seriously About Extending Eddie Goldman

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“What’s your thoughts on the Bears signing Johnathan Hankins? I think it would be great to see him with Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman. Is the DL depth for the Bears being overlooked? It seems like a greater need than what is being talked about. — @BillHol71306847

“The Bears are not in play for Hankins at this point… I think the Bears are probably more interested in investing in their own player Goldman later in the year, or at least trying to get something done. With as many issues and roster holes the Bears needed to fill, they weren’t going to get them all covered in free agency, or the first two weeks of it anyway.

The draft remains and that’s where the franchise can get the biggest boost for the remainder of this offseason. They’ve got to nail the draft and whether they add help up front (that wouldn’t surprise me) remains to be seen.”

The Bears need to think seriously about extending Goldman. Nose tackle isn’t a big generator in terms of statistics and that makes it an undervalued part of the 3-4 defense. But the Bears defense wasn’t the same two years ago after Goldman got hurt.

The Bears may be depending upon Rashaad Coward to develop into a reliable backup at this position in his second year. But, like Biggs, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears drafted a defensive lineman.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears drafted almost any position this year. They need pass rush (who doesn’t?) and they need a starting interior lineman (depending upon how they feel about Eric Kush). But otherwise, like last year, what they need more than anything else is depth almost everywhere on the field, especially on defense.

As Biggs said, the Bears have to nail the draft. Because when the injury bug hits, they’re going to need the players they add there to step up.

Kendall Wright Wasn’t A Fit For the New Bears

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Kendall Wright was the Bears’ leading receiver in 2017. He was often double-teamed due to the lack of other credible Wide Receiver threats. Given that he had a relatively inexpensive contract and had synergy with Mitch Trubisky, why has he not been re-signed as a depth or insurance for Kevin White? Is there a detail or back story that I’m missing as his salary was a rounding error compared to the new contracts? — David D., Parts Unknown

“Wright was productive for the Bears in the final month of the season but let’s not overstate the value he brought to what was a really challenged offensive unit. I’d disagree with your assessment that he was often double-teamed. Wright is an average slot receiver at this point and the Bears have candidates that they believe will be more productive in the new scheme — Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton. The Chiefs brought Wright in for a visit last week and it will be interesting to see if he generates a little more interest from the market. The Bears should be credited with some nice moves to overhaul and upgrade the position.”

Wright signed with the Vikings after this was written.

Like Biggs, I was curious to see what the interest was going to be for Wright around the league. Wright had success under former Bears offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains with the Titans in

  1. After that, he had more trouble. His last offensive

coordinator there, Terry Robiskie, was particularly blunt about Wright’s tendency to “freelance”.

“We’ve got 11 guys that are going to be on the field,” Robiskie said. “We’ve got 11 guys that we say, ‘This is your job and here is your responsibility,’ and I think Kendall is like everybody else — realizing those other 10 guys are counting on Kendall to be where he’s supposed to be and do what he’s supposed to do.”

Perhaps Wright found a home in Minnesota where they will let him do what Loggains apparently allowed him to do. But evidently, like Robiskie, new Bears head coach Matt Nagy is of a different sort.

The Bears Need More Kyle Fuller’s

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Please set me straight. The Bears pay Kyle Fuller an average of $14 million a year for four years and because the structure is back-end loaded with dead cap space in all years they essentially must keep him at least three years. Other young and just as highly ranked (based on the well respected Pro Football Focus) corners are getting signed at a fraction of a price (E.J. Gaines, Ross Cockrell, Tyrann Mathieu, who plays all over etc). I know there is some injury concern on some of those guys. Still, this is a high-risk contract. There were alternatives for that money and in the draft. The Bears will need to re-sign young drafted talent the next few years and I worry this could hinder that. Fuller must be an All-Pro to justify the value. — Dan W., Parts Unknown

“For starters, I would not lump Gaines and Cockrell in the same category as Fuller. In fact, I’d put Prince Amukamara and Fuller ahead of those two players. Mathieu is more of a safety than he is cornerback so that’s not really an apple to apple comparison, in my opinion. Is there risk involved with the Fuller contract? Sure. He had one full season of high level play and it followed a season in which he did not set foot on the field. The Bears were flush with cap space and had they not matched the offer sheet made by the Packers, they would have had a glaring hole in the secondary, one that might have pigeonholed them into drafting a quarterback in the first round.”

“I don’t look at this with a doom and gloom view. The Bears kept a really good player, one they believe is still ascending and they did fit that deal into their cap space and salary structure with relative ease.”

Amen.

We say it year after year. The goal is to sign your own free agents. The Bears know Fuller better than anyone and they believe his talent and his attitude justified the long-term deal that was offered. I say, “Fantastic”.

The Bears have to find more of these guys. More guys that they believe in and can sign with confidence for the future. Pace didn’t draft Fuller and isn’t invested in him like he would be had he done so. But he matched the offer for Fuller without hesitation in a matter of hours. I think that’s a great sign.

Bank On It: 4 QBs Ahead of the Bears Pick in the First Round

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“I keep hearing people say it’s better for the Bears if all the top QBs get drafted BEFORE their pick at No. 8. Why? With mediocre talent in the top 10 this year, wouldn’t it be better if at least a few of the top QBs dropped so the Bears are best positioned to trade down and gain picks? – @kunicks

“I don’t know about that. There could be a damn good player sitting there at No. 8 if three quarterbacks come off the board in the top seven picks. If somehow, and I think this is a bit of a longshot, four quarterbacks go in the top seven, I know there will be a damn good football player available at No. 8. For the sake of discussion, let’s say three quarterbacks are selected in the top seven picks. Let’s assume Penn State running back Saquon Barkley and North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb are also gone in the top seven picks. That’s five players off the board and that leaves Alabama defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, Virginia Tech linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith as well as Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward and Florida State safety Derwin James, among others. That’s a pretty good group if you ask me.”

It sounds to me like Biggs is underestimating the odds that 4 quarterbacks are going off the board before the Bears pick. The key is how highly do teams value that fourth guy, presumably former Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield.

I’ve participated in a seven round mock draft with representatives from the other 31 NFL teams every year for the last five or six years. These guys know their teams and have a pretty good idea of what they’re thinking is. The trends that come out of these mock drafts tend to be very representative of what happens on draft weekend.

Amongst other things, this group very accurately predicted the run on first round quarterbacks last year at a time when not that many people thought as many would go as early as they did.

This year’s mock started last week and I’m not allowed to release the results, yet. But suffice it to say 4 quarterbacks went in the top 5 picks.

Four quarterbacks will be gone before the Bears pick at #8. Book it.