Chip Kelly: Beauty or Beast?

One of the most interesting off season stories has been head coach Chip Kelly‘s of the Philadelphia Eagles. Kelly (below) has made a flurry of moves including trading star runningback LeSean McCoy for linebacker Kiko Alanso and quarterback Nick Foles for the oft injured Rams quarterback Sam Bradford.

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Many have questioned Kelly’s moves with some justification. But Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll says that Eagles fans should place their trust in Kelly. Via csnphilly.com:

“‘I think the people in Philadelphia should be very excited about the changes that are coming,’ Carroll said this week at the owners meetings. ‘Maybe they can’t see it — the vision is not clear to them. Chip knows what he’s doing. It’s going to be interesting to see.'”

“‘His record and his history has proven that he knows what he’s doing and that he has his act together,'”

Kelly’s style is an interesting contrast to what the Bears are apparently doing in their transformation to the 3-4. The Bears are looking for players with good traits. To some extent, that search will be nonspecific. If you are a difference maker, they’ll adjust the scheme to use you.

Kelly is building his team more in the way that former Bears head coach Lovie Smith built his defense. Smith was a cover two discipline and looked for players with specific traits to play his scheme. Kelly is acting similarly, looking for players to fit his offense. McCoy, for instance, is a Pro Bowl runningback. But he danced around too much behind the line of scrimmage rather than hitting the hole hard and quickly the way that Kelly wanted him to. So he was traded and replaced by runningbacks DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews.

I’m going to be fascinated to see how things work out in Philedelphia. It’s obvious that Kelly knows what he wants and I admire the guts that he’s shown in going out to get it. He going to be the next Bill Belichick. Whether it’s Belichick with the Patriots or Belichick with the Browns has yet to be determined.

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Ineptitude, Thy Name Is “Dolphins”

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Want to know what a dysfunctional franchise looks like? Ordinarily I’d point to the Browns but sometimes I think the way the Dolphins are structured at the top with competition and rivalries amongst coaches and front office personnel make for a better example. In this case, Adam Beasley at the Miami Herald reports that there is a “spirited debate” about where to play linebacker Koa Misi. Head coach Joe Philbin and defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle want him at middle linebacker. So what’s the problem? The “personnel department” has apprently made it known that they think Misi should play outside and that Kelvin Sheppard should be tried in the middle.

In most organizations, the coaches make this determination and that’s the end of it. But in the corporate environment that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross has allowed to develop in the organization, Philbin is seen as being in a weak postion and, therefore, front office personnel apparently feel free to insert themselves into the process.

Occasionally I’ll point out that the Bears are lucky to have the McCaskeys as owners of the Bears. Consider the Dolphins as yet anouther reason why. This is no way to run a franchise.

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The Bears and the Butterflies

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Bears defensive end Jared Allen gives an honest assessment of his year last year and how draining it was emotionally to Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune as he holds his baby daughter Lakelyn in his arms:

“With each ugly loss, he felt his energy tank leaking.

“Allen thought he had signed on to a team with a high-powered offense, a re-energized defense and an inspiring coach in Marc Trestman. Instead, the Bears’ 5-11 skid showed him otherwise and left him wrestling self-pity.

“‘There was almost this disappointment in myself that I had made a bad decision,’ Allen says of his free-agent signing. ‘As a man, as a player, you can’t let those circumstances affect you. Unfortunately there were times that I did. And that’s on me. It’s something you have to look back on and go, ‘Come on dude.’ ‘”

“‘I can’t let last season be my lasting impression, the image of a guy who was hurt and sick and pissed off,’ he says. ‘That’s not me. … This is not about making the best of a bad situation. It’s about being the best again in an environment where I can be.’

“He glances down again. Lakelyn is still asleep.”

Allen’s attitude should be inspiring to both teammates and fans that share a similar bitterness for how last season worked out. In particular, fellow defensive end Lamarr Houston, who started the season with a new free agent contract and a lot of hope, needs to pick up the peices and move one. It should be easier for him than Allen – he’s going back to playing a 3-4 defense that he saw a fair bit of success in with Oakland before signing with the Bears. If his attitude recovers, his performance should as well.

Many Bears fans had expectations that were as high as Allen’s. Those days are gone and the Bears are starting over with a clean slate top to bottom. They’ve left last year behind.

It’s our challenge to do the same and to embrace what’s coming.  Bears fans also need to make the best of our situation. The team isn’t going to a Super Bowl. But its going to be our pleasure to watch their progress – to watch old players adjust to new situations and to watch young players emerge in a new environment.

Passion Sunday has arrived and Easter is upon our doorstep.  Many consider this to be a moment of rebirth.  It is the hour when we rise up and are transformed into something that is closer to both our beginning and our end.  Spring is approaching. It will be a time of renewal for all of us.

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NFL Draft Analyst in the Know Thinking Defense for the Bears

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Bucky Brooks (above), a draft analyst at nfl.com, has special insight into the mind of Bears head coach John Fox.

“‘Look for them to take a defensive player to get them back on track,’ Brooks said. ‘ … (Fox) wants to make sure the defense is what this team is built on.’

“Brooks was a scout with the Carolina Panthers when Fox was the Panthers’ coach, and Brooks noted that Fox ‘likes defensive picks.’

“Chicago could use an edge rusher and help in the secondary. A top-level edge rusher seems likely to be available at No. 7; the Bears likely would have their choice of any corner or safety with that pick, as well.”

I think Brooks and I are on the same page in thinking pass rusher or defensive tackle with that pick. The tackle would be easy to guess: Danny Shelton. Seventh overall might be a little high to take him base upon the current thinking by analysts around the league. Having said that, I like him considerably better than most and would love to see them take him there.

The other option is pass rusher. The Bears should have their pick of several of the top ones in the draft. I, personally, wouldn’t touch any of them that high past Dante Fowler, who should be long gone by then. But current thinking is that any of them is a reasonable option at that point.

Trading back might be the Bears best move in the end. But where eve they end up, I think you can bet they’re going defense with that pick.

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New Defense Maximizes the Chances That Players Will Make an Impact

Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune desccribes where he thinks the position of edge rusher is as the Bears remake their defense into a 3-4 base:

“Take your notions about a 4-3 end and save them for sub packages. While the Bears are in their base grouping, which general manager Ryan Pace has approximated will be 40 percent of the time, defensive ends primarily are big-bodied run stuffers. Like the nose tackle, they’re generally asked to occupy offensive linemen and keep the linebackers free to make tackles.


There are some 3-4 ends who disrupt the quarterback and wreak havoc in the backfield — think Texans star J.J. Watt; and new Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fango had one in the 49ers’ Justin Smith — but they’re more of an exception to the rule.

“The Bears want their base ends to be at least 280 pounds, which is necessary to anchor against blocks. “

Campbell confirms what I suspect. The Bears are likely going to take their linemen as they come and adapt the scheme aroud them. Ideally they’d like J.J. Watt. But they’ll settle for Ray McDonald and Jarvis Jenkins occupying linemen and the scheme will work just fine.

The philosophy probably extends to the nose tackle as well. Ideally you’d like to be strong up the middle with Vince Wilfork occupying blockers and getting some pass rush up the middle where you can get it. But they’ll make due with 303 lb Jeremiah Ratliff penetrating and be happy with that if they have to. It won’t be the best thing for the inside linebackers but it can work as many teams – including the 49ers under Fangio who have 318 lb Quinton Dial starting at nose tackle – have shown.

Bottom line, we really won’t know what the Bears will show in term of scheme next year until we see the players. They’ll adjust the scheme – which I think we all know will be multiple anyway – to what they have. That’s going to be a good thing for Bears general manager Ryan Pace. He’s going to be open to finding players who are the best at what they do almost no matter what that is. That’s going to maximize the size of the available pool and increase his chances of finding impact personnel. And arguably they’re the ones who win ball games.

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Clausen as the Starter? Not Likely. But Not as Unlikely as People May Think.

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Some will deride the suggestion that Jimmy Clausen (above) could compete with Jay Cutler for the starting quarterback job despite John Fox‘s suggestion that there will be an “open competition” (via John Mullin at csnchicago.com). And I’m not laying money on Clausen, either, because Cutler’s got more physical talent. But I think some may be underestimating Clausen.

Clausen started for the Panthers in 2010, the year he was drafted, and performed poorly. He didn’t see the field after that until last year when he mopped up in 3 games (at least two of which were utter disasters when he got his chance). He got one start in game 15 last year where he performed better than his statistic indicated (his passer rating was only 77).

What would you have said about former Bear Josh McCown before 2013? Perhaps its more than a coincidence that when surrounded with very good skill position talent and with decent protection he bloomed. And perhaps it’s more than a coincidence that when he lost that talent, he fell apart. Isn’t it possible that Clausen is every bit as good and will show more with decent talent around him?

I’m by no means convinced that a mediocre quarterback who did all of the right things couldn’t be every bit as good as Cutler or better. Food for thought.

Admittedly its based upon only one start, but Clausen looks to me like the kind of guys who might, maybe, bloom late. I’ll be interested to see. There’s always the remote possibility that if the coaches decide that they can win with him, they’ll go with Clausen over Cutler just for the intangibles and because Clausen is so much less mentally fragile. A very remote possibility to be sure. But a possibility.

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How Did Jay Cutler Actually Come to Be the Bears Guy in 2015? And Other Points of View.

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  • Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune reports that Bears head coach John Fox will appoint five permanent captains rather than switching every week the way that former head coach Marc Trestman did. There will still be one appointed by Fox every week based upon performance. That sounds like a good idea to me. Those five players (well, four minus quarterback Jay Cutler) will have a better chance of providing real leadership for the team if they’re captains all season.
  • Adam L. Jahns at the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Bears will change their approach to weight-lifting and offseason conditioning. Former general manager Phil Emery was a former strength and conditioning coach who believed in a weight lifting regime that made athletes “more explosive”. This led many fans (including myself) to speculate that there might be more injuries. Fox seems to confirm this as he says that he particularly thinks that the new program will help wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, who Fox says seemed “a little nicked” last year with injuries. Jeffery is thought to have struggled with hamstring problems last year.
  • I also thought that what Fox said about cornerback Charles Tillman was interesting. Via Jahns:

    “Fox believes Jennings can play inside at nickel back or outside at cornerback, but said it’s obvious that Jennings is coming off a disappointing season.

    “‘I think Tim will tell you the same thing,’ Fox said. ‘Our biggest thing is to get him to perform better than he did a year ago.'”

    Those don’t sound like the kind of comments that you make about someone you don’t plan to have around next year.

  • Fox is going to start Shea McClellin out at inside linebacker (via Johns). Campbell and Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune seemed surprised to learn that McClellin won’t be tried on the outside first. I think many Bear fans would agree but I don’t. There’s a logjam at the position the way it is and I think I’ve seen enough of McClellin’s pass rush skills – in both a three and a two point stance – to think that probably isn’t the natural position for him that many thought it was for him coming out of the draft. Having said that, Fox did say that he’ll be tried at both spots eventually.
  • Campbell quotes Bears head coach John Fox on the recent signings of several veterans to one-year deals:

    “These guys who maybe didn’t get the huge contracts in free agency, my experience is they have a little bit of a chip on their shoulder. They’ve got something to prove, and I’ve had a lot of pretty good one-year deals that have had great success.”

    He’s got a point. Bears fans may remember that Matt Slauson started life as a Bear on such a deal.

  • Well, you can scratch Randy Gregory off the Bears draft list. From ESPN.com.

Elsewhere

  • Conor Orr on the various proposals to, as NFL Competition Committee co-chairman Rich McKay put it, “make [the extra point] a football play”. They were discussed by the owners for nearly an hour Wednesday, which means that they’re serious about changing it. McKay said that there will be a potential vote on something in May.

    “All the proposals on the table were interesting, but personally, the idea of eliminating the kick altogether is the best option. Imagine the level of strategy needed to consistently score from a difficult distance. Coaches would need to formulate their rosters a bit differently based on the need for more bulk in the trenches or come up with a way of increasing the success rate of passes from that distance (sorry, Seattle).”

    I would agree.

  • Steve Rosenbloom at the Chicago Tribune on the rule changes at the NFL owners meetings:

    “No team submitted a formal proposal to change the Calvin Johnson rule. Because nobody understands it.”

One Final Thought

Patrick Finley at the Chicago Sun-Times on Jay Cutler‘s contract status:

“The Bears did not try to rework Jay Cutler’s contract, the team said Wednesday, two hours after John Fox hinted that they did just that.

“‘I’m not going to get into everything,’ coach John Fox said Wednesday at the NFL annual meeting. ‘Other than, there was ongoing contract talks and it had time limits. That’s all I’ll say.'”

Ian Rapoport at nfl.com says that that after a meeting with Cutler, without his agent, the Bears left convinced Cutler was their starter.

The bet here is that they offered Cutler the opportunity to get traded out of Chicago but only if he could do something about the contract. He probably said, “No” and at that point, he was a Bear this year. That’s not exactly a “try to rework” the contract, which certainly would cause problems absent his agent, so much as it is getting a feel for what he’d be willing to do if he wants a fresh start somewhere else.

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A Realistic Look at the Bears Progress in Free Agency

Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com gives his view on the Bears progress in free agency to date:

“[AntrelRolle is old by NFL standards, there’s no other way to spin it. But at 26 and 28, respectively, [PernellMcPhee and [EddieRoyal fill screaming needs in the Bears starting lineup and are more than likely to still be in their primes if the Bears can contend in 2016 or 2017.

“[RayMcDonald is 30 but has been extremely durable, and there is no reason short of additional off the field concerns that he can’t stay in his prime for two, three or four years. Jarvis Jenkins will be 27 in April, Mason Foster just turned 26 and Vladimir Ducasse is 27.

“Jenkins and Ducasse are former second-round picks and McDonald and Foster were threes, and all but Ducasse are certain starters or important rotation players on Day 1.

“With all four players on one-year deals with little or no guaranteed money, the Bears have taken no risk while adding two extra second-round picks and two extra third-round choices.”

I’m open to the idea that the Bears got younger with ascending players… potentially ascending players. But to state that the Bears added “two extra second-round picks and two extra third-round choices”? I can’t buy that.

The Bears added two second-round picks and two third-round choices who didn’t work out. If they had, they would have gotten paid instead of taking one-year minimum benefit prove it deals. They are all four potential starters – at this point three are probable starters. But also at this point mediocre starters overall.  You could potentially include Royal, McPhee and Rolle in that as well.  The Bears are counting on each being better than he was last year.

The hope is, of course, that the Bears can develop or otherwise use the talent that made these players second and third rounders better than their previous teams. Maybe they can. But I’d say that it’s more likely that out of Jenkins, Foster, and Ducasse you might have one that you’ll want to keep at the end of the season. That’s a more realistic result of the Bears progress in free agency to date.

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Real Respect

Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune quotes Bears Chairman George McCaskey on why he proposed a rule change at the meetings that would guarantee both teams possession in overtime.

“‘A show of respect for the Packers,’ McCaskey said.

“He explained how he became compelled after watching his rivals lose the NFC championship game to the Seahawks on a first-possession touchdown pass.

“‘If you’re a Bears fan, of course, that was a great result,’ McCaskey said.”

That’s an odd way of saying that you respect someone.

Rival or not I make it a policy to never root against teams. I root for teams.

Here’s my way of showing proper respect: I thought the Packers had an under-rated defense that played their guts out and deserved better than they got.

I look forward to the day when Packers fans might might be able to honestly say the same thing about the Bears.

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Yet Another Jay Cutler Post. Sorry.

I’m sorry. I really am. At minimum any of you who regularly read these posts are probably tired of me bashing quarterback Jay Cutler. There comes a point where if you do it enough you actually start to generate sympathy for him. Some of you may already be there. Again, I’m sorry.

I admit that these posts satisfy a driving need in me. I’m powerless to influence the people who matter and this is the only thing I can do. At some point – a point very soon – I’ll stop putting up a post every time Bears head coach John Fox or general manager Ryan Pace makes even a remote attempt to defend Cutler or imply that he can fix him. Now that they’ve decided to stick with Cutler, whether Fox actually wants him or not, it’s his job to do what he can to rehabilitate him. I know that. But fear that he actually will fool himself into thinking it can be done at a critical time when its realistic to cut Cutler loose impels me to vent on this site. I’ll get over it. I promise.

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In the mean time, Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune scares me as he quotes Fox, who comments on Cutler:

“[Fox] saw a player whose struggles seemed to weigh him down.

“‘Maybe he got to the point where he lacked confidence a year ago,’ Fox said. ‘To build that back up, it’s going to take time. Daily. It takes trust, like any relationship.'”

I’m wondering if Fox gets it. I wonder if he understands that’s what Cutler is. He loses confidence and his struggles don’t just weigh him down, they weigh everyone down. Fox continues:

“‘Unless you have success it’s hard to have confidence,’ Fox said. ‘… I’ve always started with practice. I call them mini games. Try to structure them that way. This is all about what to do, how to do it and do it under pressure. That is what we do.'”

Fox has a point in that this is generally the way to build a team. But its combined with finding the right players to respond to that kind of motivation. For every person out there who builds confidence with success there’s at least one who can never find success because they lack the gene. I’m now convinced that Cutler is one of those guys. Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune tells Wiederer in this video that in listening to Fox talk it feels like “the final act” for Cutler. That’s probably because, whether he understands it or not, Campbell has seen almost as much of Cutler as most Bears fans have and he knows on some level that in a, as he puts it, “results-based business” Cutler’s never going to produce.

Is it possible to get to the point with Cutler where success breeds confidence and where he will perform at his best in a really big game? Anything is possible. But in order to get to the point where success breeds confidence you have to start somewhere where some degree of confidence breeds success. My guess is that you can build things little by little with small successes leading to big successes with many young NFL athletes who aren’t fragile by nature. Fox thinks he can build that by creating competition in practice. But there will always come that time in a real game when Cutler won’t be able to fool you – when they won’t be able to just run the football and the team is up against it and the breaks are beating the boys and you have to nut up and come through. Cutler’s well into his 30s and he is what he is. And I think he’s destined to always let you down when you need him most.

That’s what a loser is. I just hope that some how Fox comes to that decision sooner rather than later.

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