Month: April 2011

The Bears and the NFL Top 100. And Other Points of View

Bears

  • Well, the Bears drew an interesting schedule.  As everyone now knows they will be traveling to London to play Tampa Bay.  I addition to that, they drew a Christmas night assignment at Green Bay.
  • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune says that the Bears won’t be playing in London if there’s no labor deal by Aug. 1.
  • ESPN’s  NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert wonders if the NFL didn’t purposely schedule the Bears to have more than the usual number of early home games because the turf would be better that time of year.
  • For those who despise night games as much as I do the Bears currently have four on the schedule.
  • Charles Tillman and his wife went on Oprah to meet the mother who donated her son’s heart so that Tillman’s daughter could live.  Via Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • Matt Williamson at ESPN’s Scouts Inc, ranked the NFC North offensive lines.  The Bears were dead last.

“In 2010, the Bears’ run blocking was terrible. But the pass protection was horrendous. In fact, it was probably the worst in the NFL, as evidenced by the league-leading 56 sacks Chicago allowed. Even though the coaching staff did a great job masking these insufficiencies, there will be changes. It is amazing that the Bears got as far as they did in the postseason with that group of linemen.”

“Fixing the Bears’ offensive line will be a two-part process. They’ll need to bring in better players, but more important, they’ll also have to coax improved play from a group that our resident scout sees little promise in.”

We all have to hope that there’s more promise that Williamson thinks in the Bears young offensive linemen or 2011 could be a long year.

  • The Bears website did this nice little feature on Director of Player Personnel Tim Ruskell:

“We brought in Chester to be a complement to Matt [Forte], which he was… I know the numbers weren’t there, but Matt’s numbers were up. You’re just looking for the running back position’s numbers to go up, which they did.”

Whatever.

“If Brandt is right, and neither [Anthony] Castonzo or [Gabe] Carimi can protect Jay Cutler‘s blind side, it may behoove the Bears to take an interior lineman or the best defensive player available.”

“Texas gave the Bears Nathan Vasher, and [Aaron] Williams is a 6-foot cornerback in the tradition of Charles Tillman. Because of the value of the position and the need to get a Tillman replacement in the pipeline, this pick solidifies a spot that has bedeviled the defense since Vasher’s precipitous decline from his one-time Pro Bowl level.”

  • Nolan Nawrocki at Pro Football Weekly reviews the character issues (good and bad) surrounding some of the to talent in the draft.  Amongst the players connected at some point to the Bears are Marvin Austin, Rodney Hudson, and Ryan Kerrigan.
  • Jensen picks Derek Sherrod for the Bears in a mock draft for NFL.com.

Elsewhere

  • Regulars here know that I’m purposely avoiding most of the details of the labor negotiations that aren’t directly football related.  In fact, I’m not even reading the articles.  However for those who care, profootballtalk.com seems to be all over it.  Mike Florio is a lawyer so there’s even a slight chance that you can believe some of it.
  • Jeff Fisher says he wants to coach again in 2012.  Florio continues to express his skepticism about Fisher’s history with the Titans.
  • Tom Pelissero at 1500ESPN.com doesn’t think the Vikings should be looking defensive end in the first round.  He points to fourth rounders Ray Edwards, Brian Robison and Everson Griffen as examples of good defensive linemen who can be found late.  Yes, but how good would they be without Jared Allen?  I think last season answered that question as Allen had a down year and so did everyone else.  True Allen, was a fourth rounder, too.  But the Vikings had to go outside the organization to get him and I don’t like the odds of finding another one of him.
  • Evan Silva at profootballtalk.com might as well just say out right that there’s no way Redskins quarterback Donovan McNabb gets traded.
  • Michael David Smith also at profootballtlk.com, indicates that, to no one’s surprise, the Patriots are willing to trade draft picks.  Historically they’re pretty good at it:

“One of [Bill] Belichick’s favorite draft-day tactics is to trade a pick this year for a higher pick next year. This year the Patriots own the first pick of the second round (and thus the second day), and it’s quite likely that some team will call Belichick before the second round starts to offer the Patriots a first-round pick in 2012 for the right to choose first in the second round of 2011. So the Patriots won’t just use all those picks to bolster their 2011 roster; they also may look to build a stockpile of 2012 picks.”

  • One season into his NFL career and Jimmy Clausen may already be done in Carolina.  Former NFL safety Matt Bowen relates his experience at a similar point in his career for the National Football Post.  If I’m Clausen and the Panthers draft a quarterback in the first round, I’m ignoring all other factors and doing my best to get onto a team with a history of developing quarterbacks.
  • And finally, the last of the series, the Carolina Panthers are on the clock at ESPN:

One Final Thought

Pete Prisco at CBSSports.com rates the top 100 NFL players.  There were only two Bears, only one of whom was drafted by the organization and he was not drafted by GM Jerry Angelo.

Drafting for a Better Future Instead of an Ugly Present

Benjamin Franklin once wrote, “All human situations have their inconveniences. We feel those of the present but neither see nor feel those of the future; and hence we often make troublesome changes without amendment, and frequently for the worse.”

It is with that in mind that I note Dan Pompei‘s review of the outside linebackers in this year’s NFL draft for the Chicago Tribune.  Here’s what he says about the Bears need there:

“Only one outside linebacker, Lance Briggs, is under contract for next season. It is likely the Bears will bring back others with expiring contracts, but for now they can’t be certain. As a result, it seems certain the Bears will look to add depth at the position in the draft.”

I’ve got a suspicion the Bears might be looking to add more than just special teams depth here.  Briggs will be on the wrong side of 30 in November and middle linebacker Brian Urlacher will be 34 in May.

A few days ago, Pompei wrote a nice column about how good teams don’t draft to fill immediate needs.  They draft for the future:

“Too many NFL general managers look at their draft needs through reading glasses, studying just what’s in front of their noses. What they really need are binoculars so they can see what’s coming in the distance.

“It’s a trap to examine the Bears’ roster and determine they must select an offensive tackle and a defensive tackle with their first two picks in the NFL draft because that’s where their most glaring holes are.

“A better plan, depending on how the draft falls, might be to ignore those positions for the time being.”

Pompei goes on to suggest that holes are better filled in free agency.  I could not agree more with this sentiment.

The linebackers are a strength of this team but age is going to eventually catch up to them if the Bears aren’t careful.  They left those linebackers with expiring contracts go to free agency because they recognize that.  They’ve tendered Nick Roach under 2010 rules as insurance but by leaving Pisa Tinoisamoa off the roster, they’ve left themselves open to draft another young starter if he falls to them.  That could be Akeem Ayers, who the Pompei has rated as the second best after Von Miller (who will almost certainly go in the top five picks).

Yes, the Bears have needs at the line of scrimmage.  No doubt about it.  And yes, fans are going to be upset if they don’t draft some players to fill those gaps.  But free agency awaits and drafting for the future is still what its all about.

If GM Jerry Angelo does it right, he’ll take the best players left on the board in this draft.  And the best guy to take could easily be a linebacker in the early rounds.  That’s because, as Franklin said so well, seeing the future is the key to avoiding present changes for the worse.

A New Perspective on the X’s and O’s of Bears Football and Other Points of View

Bears

“The Bears had gone away from holding the local workout day because many agents would not permit their players to actually work out. That left the team in a position where decision makers would then spend a few hours looking at players who were not going to be drafted or targeted as priority free agents. It wasn’t productive. Now, it appears the Bears must see value in holding the workouts again.”

“The Bears don’t have an immediate need at cornerback as they have several young corners with potential in Zack Bowman, D.J. Moore and Joshua Moore. But no team ever has enough and Charles Tillman, the Bears’ best, is 30.”

As I’ve said before, I think the Bear do need a third corner.

“Considering the talent likely to be available at each of these positions, the Bears could have plenty of options staring at them at No. 29. As such, they could be one of the teams at the end of the first round willing to trade back to allow a club desperate to snatch up a quarterback before the expected run on the position begins in the second round. “

No one would be surprised if that run began earlier, well before the Bears picked in the first round.

  • In an earlier post I noted a mock draft where an NFC scout had given the Bear nose tackle Phil Taylor.  I agree with Bob LeGere at the Daily Herald that Taylor is a bad fit for the Bears’ scheme.  But beyond that,  I was surprised that Taylor fell so far.  Now Rang is suggesting that there’s a problem with Taylor’s feet that might be causing teams concern.  That would be interesting for a couple of reasons.  First, nose tackle has become an extremely valuable position in the NFL.  Second, Taylor is the only one anybody thinks deserves a first round grade.  This could be bad news if you are a team that needs one.

Elsewhere

“Jack Britt believes that his son, Titans receiver Kenny Britt, needs to be out of his hometown of Bayonne, New Jersey and back in Nashville.

“‘I’m worried about him all the time,’ Jack Britt told Conor Orr and Matthew Stanmyre of the Newark Star-Ledger in an article that takes a thorough look at Britt’s history of off-field issues.  ‘But my concern is not with Kenny, per se, it’s more with Kenny’s friends, and he knows that.  He has too many friends with too much free time.’

“‘He needs to be around more positive people.’”

“The day I got back, I took my nameplate from my locker — ‘Ben Roethlisberger, Super Bowl XLV’ — and it’s sitting underneath my mirror in my bathroom. I want to see that every day. It hurts a lot.”

“Don’t get too carried away with all the workouts. This is just what NFL teams do in the months between the Super Bowl and the draft. Keep in mind that they’re doing their homework not only for this year, but for the future. Maybe three years down the road, the Eagles will be in the market for a quarterback, even if it’s only a backup. And maybe the homework they do now will pay off then.”

“’Good running backs are hard to find, but big people are (harder) to find,’ Packers general manager Ted Thompson said. ‘Other people, the good Lord just made more of them.’”

  • The Denver Broncos are on the clock at ESPN:

“Just before Josh Sitton was drafted in the fourth round in 2008, he was in a mullet-tossing contest, in which people hurl the fish across the beach all as an excuse to throw a huge party.

“’Actually I just went and watched. I didn’t have the 20 bucks to enter it,’ said Sitton.”

I doubt its a problem now.

One Final Thought

Bear fans talk about a new and very unique strategy in this can’t be missed video:

Kiper Likes Nate Solder Fit for the Bears and Other Points of View

Bears

  • I hated to re-live this game against the Patriots last year but Bill Belichick does a wonderful job highlighting a hand full of plays against the Bears in this this video.
  • Dan Arkush at Pro Football Weekly looks at the top free agents.  Some possibilities at positions relevant to the Bears (just the names):

Wide receivers: Santana Moss (Redskins) and Mark Clayton (Rams)
Offensive tackles: Matt Light (Patriots) and Jammal Brown (Redskins)
Offensive guards: Robert Gallery (Raiders) and Alan Faneca (Cardinals)
Linebacker: Barrett Ruud (Buccaneers), Ben Leber (Vikings) and Matt Roth (Browns)

“Do you think that having free agency after the draft could become common practice? Do some general managers prefer it that way?
“Monk_316 on Twitter

“I know that Bears general manager Jerry Angelo prefers to have the draft before free agency and I’m going to guess that many of his counterparts feel the same way. In that scenario, teams can draft the best players available regardless of position and then fill needs in free agency. But I don’t think the players would ever agree to push free agency back after the draft. I imagine that they would want teams to fill needs in free agency before restocking with incoming rookies.”

I would have guessed that the Bears would have preferred to fill their needs before the draft, not afterwards.  Apparently not.  I guess in retrospect Mayer’s answer does make sense.

“It’s a trap to examine the Bears’ roster and determine they must select an offensive tackle and a defensive tackle with their first two picks in the NFL draft because that’s where their most glaring holes are.

“A better plan, depending on how the draft falls, might be to ignore those positions for the time being. The best way to fill holes isn’t through the draft — it’s through free agency. Veterans are easier to evaluate and ready to play; rookies can be mysteries.”

“TCU OL Marcus Cannon has in fact been taking a number of visits throughout the postseason and I’m hearing he’s drawing a lot of interest from a number of teams in the NFC North.”

“‘We’ve had (Smith) at the bottom of the first all along,’ said an NFL executive. ‘The media has pushed him up. No one questions the traits. But there is a miss factor. Remember everyone was surprised when Winston Justice slid. We had him (graded) in the fourth round. The medical could push (Smith) out of the first, no question. I would love for him to go in the top 10, but I’d be shocked if he came close.'”

  • Former NFL scout Brian Broaddus does his mock draft for ESPNDallas.com.  He has the Bears taking offensive tackle Derek Sherrod.  This is the upteenth recent mock draft that I’ve come across that plays out with the Bears taking Sherrod.

Elsewhere

“This wasn’t the blitzing unit you’d expect.  Rex Ryan often kept things simple and relied on outstanding press coverage from his corners and read-and-react proficiency from his safeties and linebackers. The statistics say this more docile approach worked, but the film showed that this D didn’t generate enough game-changing plays (turnovers, sacks and big hits). Big plays can be hard to come by when you don’t have a dominant pass rusher.”

  • Benoit also addresses the Dolphins.  He makes the case against a pick that many mock drafts have the Dolphins making:

“Myth Buster

“The Dolphins need Mark Ingram

“The free-agent running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams can both still play, but age and circumstance make them unworthy of long-term contracts. It’s logical for the Dolphins to go in a new direction, though that direction must include a commitment to increased speed. Ingram is a high volume, between-the-tackles runner. At best, he’d give Miami a slightly better version of what they had last season. Relying on only a grinding run game is fine…if you’re striving for 8-8. New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll needs a speedy playmaker who can create matchup problems and formation variation. If the Dolphins do draft Ingram, they’d better find a burner to complement him.”

“In response to this story, Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor is saying the supplemental draft is not in his future. And staying in school probably is a smart move. He may be a great college player, but scouts I’ve spoken with say Pryor would likely go in the fourth or fifth round of the supplemental draft. They see him as a player who is not an NFL style quarterback, an inaccurate passer and a player who struggles making decisions.”

“Postponing the Super Bowl a couple of weeks is a terribly unappetizing idea, unless of course you are hoping like to see tulip buds outside of Lucas Oil Stadium on your way to the big game.”

Who doesn’t like tulip buds?

“The research and development arm of a company is usually the lifeblood of that company. If Apple, DuPont, Dow, 3M, Amgen and Pfizer don’t spend adequately on the development of new products, technology and drugs, their competitors will eat them alive.”

“…it’s increasingly obvious that teams not in need of a quarterback are trying to create a feeding frenzy, with the Patriots kicking tires on Jake Locker and the Colts supposedly looking at possible long-term replacements for Peyton Manning and the Saints bringing in Andy Dalton, who has generated an uncanny amount of interest in recent weeks.

“Put simply, the teams that don’t need quarterbacks want the teams that need quarterbacks to take them early, pushing down the board the players that the teams that don’t need quarterbacks want.”

“CN:  I want to ask about Stefan Wisniewski, because I’ve seen him all over.  Some mocks push him into the 3rd, and there’s one big list that doesn’t even rate him in the top 100.

“WB:  I’ve heard from most scouts that he’s the 1st or 2nd interior lineman on most teams’ boards, either before or after Mike Pouncey.  There may be a shot that he falls into the early 3rd, because he’s not the most sexy of players, but if he’s the number two, I can’t really see him falling into the 3rd if Pouncey is going somewhere in the 15-20 range.“

One Final Thought

Kiper is starting to think Nate Solder to the Bears might be a good fit.

Only the Players Get Younger. And Other Points of View

Bears

“As much as the critics will argue they need an offensive lineman I’m not sure that’s something that’s at the top of their list,” the former executive for the Redskins and Texans said Wednesday. “You might see a good defensive player fall to them, whether it’s a guy like [Purdue defensive end Ryan} Kerrigan as an outside pass rusher, maybe somebody along those lines.”

  • Jeff Dickerson at ESPNChicago.com gives the Bears Derek Sherrod in his mock draft.  He’s got them passing on Akeem Ayers, who’s probably a better player and who might fill a hole at strong-side linebacker.  But that’s not a value position.
  • Mel Kiper and Todd McShay at ESPN talk Bears draft:

Elsewhere

“There is no way to sugar coat a team that went on to fire its coaching staff and to release many of its best defensive players and just start over – including making no effort to retain Ryan. But after breaking down a few of their finer efforts, I have come to the conclusion that Ryan’s creativity and motivational skills are two of his finest traits. And I submit to you that both of those are the two traits that I felt were sorely missing in Dallas the last few years.”

I’d have to quote virtually the entire article to hit upon all of the interesting strategical points here.  Its great reading.

“Q: Is Stephen Jones the only person in the Cowboys organization who has influence over his father?
“Reginald Smith, Dallas

“TAYLOR: He has more influence than anyone else. I think Jason Garrett is high on the list, too. Jason is a smart guy, and I think Jerry truly respects him. That respect is the reason Jason really has a chance to succeed here. The key to winning in Dallas is being able to tell Jerry, ‘No. We don’t need to do it that way.’”

  • The Bengals are on the clock at ESPN:

  • as are the Bills:

  • and Kiper and McShay:

Strong Side:

“Leads the league in blog posts about how he should be the MVP.”

Weak Side:

“Still technically a bust for a first pick.”

One Final Thought

Welcome to the rest of your life, Kevin Seifert, who just realized that players born in 1990 are eligible for the NFL Draft:

“Every generation reaches that point. We’re at the point where babies born during the Bell Biv Devoe period are headed to the NFL. It’s time to pass the Geritol around. Wasn’t it just yesterday that we watched the Jim Harbaugh-led Chicago Bears win the NFC Central, all while dreaming about the Cradle of Love girl? “

JaMarcus Russell as an Abject Lesson and Other Points of View

Bears

“On his Twitter account, former Packers public relations director Jeff Blumb said he was hearing through the NFL grapevine that that Packers would be playing the Chicago Bears in the Thursday night opener.

“My question is why?”

“The Bears’ defense was very, very physical. The O-line was not. I believe you can make average talent above average if you make them nasty. Can Mike Tice do that? Shane, Grand Forks, N.D.

“I think a good offensive line coach can improve technique, understanding and cohesion. I don’t think a good coach can make a player “nastier,” to use your term. A blocker’s temperament is something he’s born with. I suppose it can change over time, but if it does it’s probably more about what’s going on inside that player than how he responds to external forces.”

“To this point, there has been a general sense that Angelo — a onetime scouting director himself — has been drawn to individual players he likes more than he has been guided by a larger plan to build a balanced team. Case in point: He has drafted 18 defensive backs and 11 offensive linemen over his tenure. Six of those 11 offensive linemen were taken in the seventh round, part of the reason the Bears are short-handed at the position this offseason.”

“McShay said that he has 28 players with first-round grades in this year’s draft. Not what you want to think about if you’re, say, No. 29. But with the possibilities of reaching, that does not mean there won’t be a first-round talent when the Bears’ turn comes.”

Truth.  Every team sets its board differently based upon circumstances.  Besides, I think we can reasonably expect one or two teams to be taking second round quarterbacks in the second half of the first round, causing other prospects to fall.

  • Mullin had this to say about the new people who are influencing the Bears draft this year.

“Insiders say that [new director of player personnel Tim] Ruskell has shifted some of the often-excessive attention given to prospects targeted in later rounds and turned that on higher-round possibilities.”

“…[Mike] Tice is a player. What that suggests is that the lines will be addressed early and often, and probably pretty well.”

“I would like to see the Bears draft an impact three technique tackle in the first round considering the importance of the position and I’m really high on the DT from Oregon State Stephen Paea.  — Chris P., Virginia Beach, Va

“I think Paea is an interesting prospect, but I’d be surprised if he were taken in the first round, based on the front office men I’ve spoken with. He is projected to be a second- or third-round pick. Paea didn’t play as well last season as he did the year before. He’s also considered a little undersized for the position. He has good initial quickness, is tough and plays with good leverage, but he is not the explosive kind of interior pass rusher who gets double digit sacks in the NFL.”

A number of mock drafts have the Bears reaching for Paea.

“Is there a chance the Bears go after a wide receiver in free agency like Vincent Jackson, Sidney Rice or even Steve Smith? Craig, LaSalle, Ill.

“I would say there is a chance, depending on how the draft goes. If the Bears don’t pick a receiver in the draft, they almost assuredly will be in the market for one in free agency.“

“Of the last 10 players to be chosen with the 29th pick, seven of them became reliable starters. Only one of them has become a star, however.”

  • McShay got together with two scouts, one from the NFC and one from the AFC, to do a mock draft.  I can’t believe they gave the Bears nose guard Phil Taylor.  Admittedly he would have been the best player available and nose guards are extremely valuable – if you are a 3-4 team or if you are running the type of 4-3 that the Vikings have the last few years.  But at least on the surface, that’s an awful fit for the Bears defense.
  • Jeff Dickerson at ESPNChicago.com does a positional analysis of defensive tackles and defensive ends in the draft and Michael C. Wright does the same for the guards and offensive tackles.  I don’t necessarily agree with the grades – especially Wright’s evaluation of the guards – but its a reasonable listing of the relevant players.  The Bears will certainly be looking to upgrade the these positions early.

Elsewhere

  • The Arizona Cardinals are on the clock at ESPN:

  • Mel Kiper and McShay discuss what the teams at the top of the draft should do in the draft:

Pompei certainly says some good things about Newton but, as usual, its words like these that scare the crap out of you if you are drafting in the top 10:

“But he is not a very accurate passer and is an inconsistent decision-maker who played in a spread offense. His release is a little funny. Moreover, he is a one-year wonder after transferring twice and coming out early. Questions abound about his maturity and leadership as critics say he’s a finger-pointer who’s difficult to get along with. Newton comes with a demanding entourage.”

“‘Don’t believe everything you see and hear in the media,’ he said. ‘It’s not reality. I’m not a delicate, little, weeping flower. I’m the tough quarterback who won Super Bowls.’

“Brady says he will, however, continue wearing women’s underwear.”

One Final Thought

JaMarcus Russell is failing at life.  Or something.  Jason Cole at Yahoo Sports tells us that his life coach has fired him:

“[John] Lucas did not return several phone messages left for him, and agents Eric Metz and Ethan Locke did not want to discuss Russell’s condition. However, the sources said Russell’s lack of effort had driven even Lucas, who has made a career of helping athletes and others with drug and addiction problems, to the point of frustration.”

Matt Bowen at the National Football Post thinks Russell’s story should be a lesson to this year’s draft prospects.  It should be a lesson to us all.

“Talent? Everyone has talent or they wouldn’t be wearing a jersey with the NFL shield stitched on the front. What Russell didn’t have was the willingness to improve, to practice his craft and to act like a professional towards the game.”

“I don’t expect to ever see Russell play in the NFL again. That time—and that opportunity—was thrown away. However, the prospects that will soon be celebrating in family rooms across the country next week when they see their name flash across the screen need to take notice of this.

“Because they won’t last if they don’t show up ready to work.”

A State of the Bears Address

Introduction

I usually groan when bloggers do things like this.  They almost always end up being long and winding discourses without focus that lose me about two paragraphs in.   Nevertheless, I actually had to put one together to apply to be a Bears “super fan” at ESPN Football Today so there’s a slight chance they’ll read parts of it to tear up on the podcast.  I figure if they get to take shots at me the least I can do is put it out there and let my friends do it as well.  I hope it generates some interesting discussion on the mailing lists and in some of the groups.

For a team that was a win away from the Super Bowl last year, the Bears have an amazing number of needs.  This is a veteran team with an aging defense that went through the season with barely a scratch due to injury.  Nevertheless the Bears got beat in the playoffs by a younger and much more injured Green Bay team.  It kills me as a Bears fan to say it but despite having so much fall in the Bears’ favor, Green Bay was the decidedly better team at the end of the year.

Coming off of what appeared from the outside looking in to be a good year, the Bears are in a deceptively bad situation, especially with a younger Lions team on the rise.  If the Vikings were to some how solve their quarterback problem with a good, immediate solution, they’ve also still got the horses to be a heap of trouble.

Headed into the Draft

Given their age, particularly on defense, the Bears need to build through the draft to fix what ails them.  Jerry Angelo’s draft strategy is usually very good and as a fan I’ve learned a great deal from him.  For example he works hard to leave himself open to take the best player available and he doesn’t fall in love with one guy.  Ordinarily this means re-signing your own guys and plugging holes with free agents that bring good value, leaving yourself free to take a talented player in the draft at most positions.

Obviously that isn’t what’s likely to happen this year as free agency is probably going to come after the draft instead of before the draft.  So Angelo took an interesting tack.  He left some of the free agents like Olin Kreutz, Anthony Adams, Pisa Tinoisamoa and, to a lesser extent, Danieal Manning hit the market.  This created holes to be filled in the draft with whatever the talent falls to them.  Then you figure he can make an effort to re-sign the guys he needs if necessary when free agency finally begins.  Frankly, the whole thing fascinates me.

Given Angelo’s strategy and approach to the draft, you’d think the Bears would be pretty good at it.  They’re not.  Like many good football teams you can have a great game plan but you still have to execute on the field.  The Bears are probably average at best in finding players in the draft and that’s only because they’ve been good in the later rounds.  Its true that they haven’t had first round picks for two years but Angelo’s record over his entire tenure with the Bears in the first three rounds hasn’t been good.  This might have been a factor in the shake up of their personnel department which resulted in the hiring of Tim Ruskell as director of player personnel.

Despite picking late the Bears do have some advantages this year.  They finally have the quarterback position working for them in the draft instead of against them and the Jay Cutler trade which resulted in the loss of first round picks in 2009 and 2010 and the loss of a third rounder in 2009, might finally start paying off.  The Bears don’t have a need at quarterback early in this draft but as many as a dozen other teams do.  That could means two things:

1) lots of opportunity to trade down with teams deperate to reach for a quarterback late in round 1.

2)  good non-quarterbacks falling to you as teams trade up into the mid-twenties to take guys you have no interest in.

Trading down is what I’d do here if possible.  I subscribe to the theory that two top 65 players are better than one and that there’s little difference between the 18th rated player on your board and a selection No. 45.  Having said that, I’m going to assume for the purposes of this application that the Bears don’t trade down and take the best available with three picks in rounds 1-3 and I’m assuming that they look for those players to compete to start.

The Bears absolutely have to hit on these picks.  People think what kills you the most is not drafting Pro Bowlers.  That hurts but far and away the fastest way to kill a team is to continue to address the same need position draft after draft because the guy you took last year didn’t cut it.  The Bears do need young playmakers but more than that, they need young guys who can start at positions the team can then forget about for years to come.  When you’re picking at 29, those are the guys you are more likely to find.

I didn’t shoot the moon by pushing for huge, big time free agents in this post.  Instead I worked under the assumption that the Bears will approach it as they have the majority of the time in the past.  They’re probably willing to spend some money in free agency but realistically the Bears usually look for value guys most years rather than the Julius Peppers of the world.

My needs are:

1)  offensive line
2)  defensive ine
3)  linebacker
4)  defensive back
5)  wide receiver
6)  quarterback
7)  running back

I’m assuming guys like Mike Pouncey are long gone but if any of the obvious, more highly ranked prospects at the line of scrimmage falls, the Bears should run, not walk, to the podium to take him.  Having said that, I’m stacking my first round board of likely candidates this way:

Ryan Kerrigan
Akeem Ayers
Stephen Paea
Cameron Heyward
Brooks Reed
Danny Watkins
Nate Solder
Gabe Carimi
Rodney Hudson

Offensive line

The offensive line blocked reasonably well in the running game but fell short protecting Cutler.  Cutler was sacked 52 times.  Nine of those came agains the New York Giants in Week 4 where he suffered a concussion.

The Bears have two key questions:

1)  What do you do at left tackle?
2)  What do you do with Chris Williams?

Williams finished the year at left guard but there’s no consensus on what they’re going to do with him.  One thing is reasonably certain.  They need to make a decision this offseason and they need to leave him wherever they put him to develop.

A lot may depend upon who falls to the Bears in the draft.  This is a good class for guards and centers and the guess here is that they draft at least one interior offensive lineman in the first three rounds.  I think this would be ideal.  Interior linemen tend to hit in the draft and to my eye Williams has been at his best at right tackle, which is where I’d move him and which is where I’d leave him from here on out.  The Bears are high on J’Marcus Webb and they swear he’s a good possibility at left tackle.  I have my doubts but I’ll accept it for now and leave Frank Omiyale to compete on both sides.

Worst case scenario is Webb fails at left tackle and Omiyale takes over.  The Bears are better and younger on the inside and they’re no worse at tackle than they were last year.  Best case scenario is they get younger everywhere and stabilize the line for years to come.

Aging free agent center Olin Kreutz appears to be the odd man out in this scenario.  If your drafted interior lineman isn’t a center, either Roberto Garza moves over (he’s played the position before) or Edwin Williams takes over there.  The Bears still like Lance Louis and E. Williams and its likely they’ll be able to compete for the jobs inside.

There is the possibility the Bears go offensive tackle in the first round here.  Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod come to mind.  They’re all flawed, boom or bust guys.  It makes little sense to me to pick one unless you can plug him in on the left and I’m not seeing it at the end of round one.  I think picking up an interior lineman in rounds two or three or a guard like Danny Watkins or Rodney Hudson in round one is the safer route.

If the Bears do take a tackle, they should re-sign Kreutz and leave Chris Williams at guard.

Defensive line

Julius Peppers was on the field 88% of the time in 2010.  His counterpart Israel Idonije was on the field 80% of the time.  Peppers and Idonije combined for 3-1/2 sacks in the final seven games including the postseason.  The Bears talk about keeping their defensive linemen fresh by playing them in waves and clearly they aren’t doing it here.  They need a more capable third end.

The Bears also have to replace Tommie Harris, who was finally released, and they’ve let Anthony Adams hit free agency.  These are considerable voids to fill.

If I’m the Bears, I’m depending upon Matt Toeaina to continue to give solid play on a lot of the snaps.  I think I’ve also got no choice but to hope that Henry Melton makes a big step at defensive tackle next year.  Corey Wooton is another young guy at defensive end and he should be allowed to compete for some playing time.

But no matter what, I’m definitely looking at the draft here and I’m thinking that most likely I’m finding my guy in the first round.  Ryan Kerrigan, Stephen Paea, Cameron Heyward and Brooks Reed are all possibilities here, probably in that order.  I’d also like to see them re-sign Adams, particularly if the draft pick is a defensive end.

Linebacker

I’m astounded at how few experts see linebacker as a need for the Bears.  They have two – count them TWO – linebackers under contract, albeit good ones.  They are middle linebacker Brian Urlacher and weak side linebacker Lance Briggs.

The Bears let strong side linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa go to free agency and have extended a restricted free agent tender to Nick Roach under the 2010 rules.  But the fact remains that they need a starter at strong side linebacker and that should be a younger guy who could eventually move inside to replace the aging Urlacher.  They also need depth and they’re going to need special teams out of that depth at this position.

If I’m the Bears I’m looking to draft a starting strong side linebacker, probably in rounds two or three.  Akeem Ayers might be there in round one and is a possibility.  I’m also looking to resign Roach and perhaps at least one second tier free agent or one late round pick for depth.  Paul Posluszny comes to mind as a potential free agent and Jerry Angelo has always had a soft spot for Rocky McIntosh.  There would be nothing wrong with re-signing Tinoisamoa at their price.

Defensive back

The New England Patriots scarred me for life last season.  They literally shredded the Bears in one half of football before taking the rest of the game off and it was mostly because of one man – Wes Welker.  Really good teams like the Patriots are superb at moving versatile players around to create mismatches.  The only way to deal with these teams is to spend at least some time in single coverage rather than sitting in zone coverage and letting them do it.  That’s tough for a cover two team like the Bears because they don’t draft those kinds of corners.  They spend their money up front to create a pass rush and leave the coverage to bigger corners who can redirect receivers inside and play a zone.  So though the Bears did mix their coverages well last year, they had no answer for good guys like Welker in the slot and if they’re ever going to be among the elite, they have to find a third corner.  He doesn’t have to be great but he has to have some different qualities from the ones they have.

The Bears have Charles Tillman here and he’s a fixture.  But other than that, they have Zack Bowman, who spent the year in Lovie Smith’s dog house and Tim Jennings who did a serviceable job but who is only 5’8” and is just too short for comfort.  D.J. Moore was the nickel back and he was adequate most of the time but, as I said before, the Bears need an upgrade here.

At safety they’ve got Chris Harris, who will now be the strong safety opposite Major Wright at free safety.  They’ve let Danieal Manning hit free agency but I think they should re-sign him once he finds his worth on the open market.  They also need to re-sign Josh Bullocks who is a good special teams performer.

My gut feeling is that this is a need that might not get filled this year.  Aaron Williams and Brandon Harris are potential first round draft picks at corner but I think we’re looking for a later value pick in a middle round that you hope hits big.  Carlos Rogers might be a free agent choice here.

Quarterback

Its fish or cut bait time for Caleb Hanie at quarterback.  Jerry Angelo likes him but offensive coordinator Mike Martz doesn’t seem to.  In any case, Hanie is entering his fourth year in the league and he needs to either win the back up job or go.

The Bears need to look to draft a developmental quarterback in the mid to late rounds.  They also need to sign a free agent to compete with Hanie.  I’ve heard Drew Stanton’s name bandied about and he’d be an interesting choice.  Other than that there are plenty of veteran guys out there and its just a question of waiting until the starting jobs are filled and then picking the best one who will take a back up job.

Wide Receiver

Some are going to be surprised that I didn’t put wide receiver higher on this list.  There’s a reason for that.  The Bears receiver corp isn’t that great.  But they aren’t that bad, either.  Mostly they’re JAGs.

I like Earl Bennett.  He’s a reliable underneath guy that every team needs.  He makes plays when he needs to but he’s never going to be a game breaker.  Devin Hester is forever raw.  Johnny Knox shows flashes of potential but he was a fifth round pick and sometimes it shows.  He disappeared in the Green Bay games late in the year when their corners got physical with him.  Devin Aromashodu is gone.  The Bears have signed Andy Fantuz from the CFL but they could use a bigger guy.

Again, I’ll point to the Patriots and to the Packers as the way to become an elite team in the NFL.  You become a team that can create mismatches.  The Bears need better wide receiver play to do that.  The problem is that I don’t see it happening this year because they have too many higher priority positions to upgrade.

Bottom line, you don’t target wide receiver this year in the draft or in free agency if you are the Bears.  But if the high potential boom or bust type falls into the mid- to late- rounds, you take him.

Runningback

The Bears are really full up at running back but beyond Matt Forte, they’re all pretty much expendable.  Chester Taylor will be given another year but he’s got to perform better.  One of the problems the Bears have is that Taylor, Forte and Kahlil Bell are all the same back.  They need a bigger change of pace guy with a different style.  Harvey Unga, who the Bears took in the supplemental draft last year, might fit the bill but he was a seventh rounder and if you’re holding your breath waiting for a guy like that to emerge you’re in trouble.

The running game is really important in Chicago in November and December.  I’m not saying its a major priority but if a bigger back falls into their laps in the mid-to-late rounds, I see a need I’d like to see filled here.

Wild Draft Rumors, Debatable Needs at Wide Receiver and Running Back and Other Points of View.

Bears

“Whether the Bears address their offensive line on the first or second day of the draft, or both, the football absolute at work is the need to get the pick right. Very, very right.

“This is beyond the obvious need to acquire talent now. It involves not having to go after the same position again and again if there’s a miss near the top of the draft. Because the cost of a failed pick ripples into subsequent drafts, as the Bears have found too often.”

“Replacing players because of age or free-agency departures is part of the deal. But needing to address the same position year after year is a hidden disaster.”

I’ve often said that the Bears need impact players – and they do.  But even more than that the player needs to be a solid hit.  It has to be a guy you can plug in to a position that you can now forget about as a need for years to come.

I don’t think the Bears can afford to go with a boom or bust guy here.

“Stubbornly refusing to attempt to upgrade the position last offseason, the Bears probably will take their chances once again with [Johnny] Knox, Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and whoever else they can muster.  They shouldn’t.”

“The Bears have do have their share of shortcomings at wide receiver. But QB Jay Cutler is capable of making each and every one of their pass catchers better – as long as he has an offensive line that can protect him. That’s the Bears’ No. 1 priority in the draft.”

Along with virtually everyone else I’m inclined to agree with LeGere.  I don’t like the receivers anymore than Florio does (or LeGere for that matter).  But I’d put wide receiver third or fourth on the list after upgrading at the line of scrimmage.

  • Florio also thinks running back is a need ahead of cornerback.  Though I have no problem with the Bears upgrading at the position, Chester Taylor’s contract is such that he’s going to get another year to show he can perform.  The Bears took Harvey Unga in the supplemental draft last year and probably still want to give Garrett Wolfe and Kahlil Bell their shot to compete for jobs this sumer.  If they see someone they really like, they could take him late but otherwise I think the Bears are full up here.
  • Michael C. Wright at ESPNChicago.com talks about the Bears need at center.  He lists the top 20 prospects at the position and the round they are projected to go in, giving an overall draft positional grade of “C-“.  But Wright doesn’t account for most of the guards that are thought to be center prospects as well, including Florida’s Mike Pouncey.  Add them into the mix and the Bears could pick up a good one if they choose to go that route.
  • Though its unlikely the Beas will take one very high, it is possible they will go receiver somewhere in the draft.  Matt Waldman, writing for the New York Times, profiles his third and fourth best receivers, Randall Cobb and Greg Little, respectively:

  • More trouble for South Florida defensive back Mistral Raymond, a potential Bear target.  Via Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune.

Elsewhere

“Projecting and developing drafted quarterbacks is one of the worst things the Raiders do as a franchise. Al Davis hasn’t nailed one since 1968, when he took quarterbacks in the first two rounds with second-round pick Ken Stabler (No. 58 overall) quickly surpassing first-round pick Eldredge Dickey (No. 25) and leading the franchise to its first Super Bowl title in addition to winning the Most Valuable Player award.”

  • Todd McShay and Mel Kiper talk second tier quarterbacks on ESPN.  It can’t be said enough that these evaluations are critical for the Bears as teams may look to trade up either with them or in front of them to get into the first round to take one:

“’His motion was off [last year],’ the NFC executive said. ‘His release point was all over the place. So, guess what? Now, it’s pretty good. He worked on it, fixed it in the offseason.’

One Final Thought

As high as Pelissero thinks Locker may go, it may not be high enough.  As McShay talks draft in this video he says he thinks the Titans at eight might take Locker ahead of Minnesota.  He also thinks the Bengals might draft Julio Jones over A. J. Green in the #4 slot.  Those would be some shocking picks:

Illinois Governor Has Not Paid Off on Bet and Other Points of View

Bears

“It obviously depends on how far they trade down and how motivated their trading partner is to move up. But in speculating about what type of compensation the Bears would get in exchange for the 29th pick, we can look back at what occurred in last year’s draft when two picks in the same vicinity were dealt. The Ravens traded the 25th pick to the Broncos in exchange for selections in the second (43rd overall), third (70) and fourth (114) rounds. The Vikings traded the 30th pick along with a fourth-rounder (128) to the Lions in exchange for choices in the second (34), fourth (100) and seventh (214) rounds.”

UCLA safety Rahim Moore is getting a lot of attention from a number of NFC teams. I’m hearing both the Cowboys and Bears have a lot of interest in the center field standout and he could be an option for both in round two.

Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue DE— I’ve seen him taken by the Bears in at least one mock draft

Christian Ponder, Florida State QB – my gut feeling is that someone is going to trade up to take Ponder.  The Bears are a possible trading partner but will also benefit if someone in front of them trades down, leaving another good non-quarterback to fall.

Mike Pouncey, Florida C/G – there’s almost no way Pouncey falls to the Bears as he continues to rise up boards.

N.F.L. Draft: Torrey Smith, 5th-Ranked Receiver – NYTimes.com

Matt Waldman, writing for the New York Times, is reviewing the top five players by position.  It highly iunlikely the Bears will go wide receiver in the first round but the second is not out of the question.  Here is the profile for Torrey Smith, his fifth ranked receiver.

  • Greg Gabriel at the National Football Post breaks down Iowa quarterback Ricki Stanzi.  The Bears will probably draft a developmental quarterback and if Stanzi falls far enough, he’s a distinct possibility.

Elsewhere

“It’s a different way of thinking about line play.  How much has Dallas embraced it?   If you match this philosophy up with players visiting Valley Ranch this past week, it seems the Cowboys are rather warm to the approach.”

I also have agreed with this assessment.

  • Because of the success of Ndamukong Suh and to a lesser extent Gerald McCoy from last year’s draft, many assume defensive line is a good direction to go in at the top of the draft.  Not necessarily so says Joe Reedy at the Cincinnati Enquirer:

“Of the [last] 15 defensive linemen who have gone in the top six overall, only five have made at least one Pro Bowl. Of the seven defensive ends, the last four are disappointments headlined by Vernon Gholston, who can be called a bust after three underwhelming seasons with the Jets.”

“Complicating matters this year is the fact that without a CBA agreement teams won’t be allowed to sign undrafted free agents right away.”

“I’ve been told that means if a team needs to fill a position – like fullback, safety or nose tackle with a youngster to develop – they will have to draft him in the later rounds, using one of their sixth or seventh-round picks.

“I’ve been warned this could alter the approach of the late round selection, preventing teams from drafting the best available player (no matter what’s already on their roster) because they are addressing needs in this new, unchartered era of the NFL.”

“A mini-trend this year, according to several front office men, is that teams are not giving prospects a particular grade just because those players are ‘supposed to’ have that grade, as per the rest of the league. It seems that teams are more inclined to go out on a limb with players, even if their thinking is unconventional. The result could be more surprise picks, especially towards the end of the first round.”

  • Matthew Cammarata at the Detroit Free Press thinks the three most likely picks for the Lions at 13 will be cornerback Prince Amukamara and offensive tackles Anthony Castonzo and Tyron Smith.  As I said yesterday, there’s a wide disparity of opinion on whether the Lions actually need a tackle of not and one of the more interesting questions in this draft will be what the Lions will do if Amukamara isn’t there.

You can count Tim Twentyman at the Detroit News as one who thinks offensive tackle in the first round probably shouldn’t be an option:

“By most accounts, this year’s crop of tackles is deep with first-round talent but short on a sure thing.

“Read most of the scouting reports on these tackles and you’ll see the words ‘potential”’ and ‘project.”’ There aren’t any guys that knock my socks off.”

“Some fans don’t want to hear it, but left tackle Jeff Backus is coming off two of the best seasons in his career. Coach Jim Schwartz called last season’s performance Pro-Bowl worthy.”

“Southern Cal OT Tyron Smith is getting a lot of interest from the Cowboys at nine, but I am also hearing they like Missouri DE Aldon Smith a lot and would love to pair him opposite DeMarcus Ware off the edge.

If Smith is there for the Cowboys I’ve got a feeling he is a virtual lock here.  They needs a tackle as Marc Colombo is on his last legs and Smith is the consensus as the best tackle in the draft.

“I know they’ve had a lot of talk about the quarterback situation here in Miami, we’ve had a lot of talk about it in Charlotte too.  It’s all going to boil down to quarterbacks. in this league, the running game is predicated on whether you have a quarterback or not. If you don’t have a quarterback, teams will stack the box and they force you to do what you do best. …

“It’s basically going to boil down to who has the better quarterback, or who’s making the conscious effort to go out and find a quarterback or mold a quarterback they already have into a championship caliber quarterback.”


One Final Thought

Apparently Illinois governor Pat Quinn is on the border of welshing on his bet with Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. From Jim Singl at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Brad Biggs at the National Football Post:

“So, that means Quinn has yet to show up decked out in his best green and gold gear at a Wisconsin food pantry. What gives? Is he weaseling out, Singl asked?

“’No, no, no, absolutely not,’ Quinn’s spokesman Grant Klinzman said. ‘He fully intends to live up to the terms of the bet.’

“That’s nice. Was Quinn planning on settling up anytime soon or does the NFL lockout have him really down in the dumps?

“’He’s a very, very busy guy,’ Klinzman said. ‘I think you guys have been pretty busy, as well.’”

 

Trend Towards Interior Linemen May Characterize Draft

I’ve long held that offensive guard is becoming a more important position in the National Football League than in years past.  Bear fans need only look at their own division for one of the best examples of why this is.  The Minnesota Vikings spent what was at the time a fortune for a guard on Steve Hutchinson in 2006.  Ever since we have watched Hutchinson serve as the key piece of what was up to last year an excellent to good offensive line.

Dan Pompei writing for the National Football Post, explains why interior offensive linemen and defensive tackles have recently become almost as important as offensive tackles and defensive ends in the NFL game:

“What’s changed? Offenses.

“Because protecting the quarterback is more difficult than ever, and arguably more important with the way teams are emphasizing the pass, we’re seeing fewer and fewer deep drops. It’s all short drops and quick throws. That minimizes edge rushers. And it also makes the offensive tackles less important.

“Defensive tackles like Nick Fairley could end up being rewarded on draft day.

“However, interior pass rushers have become more important. If a defensive tackle can penetrate, either through power or quickness, he can force a quarterback to adjust even on a well executed short drop that’s intended to yield a quick pass.”

“And the best way to stop a defensive tackle like [Ndamukong] Suh or Sedrick Ellis is with a premier interior blocker like Logan Mankins or Jahri Evans.”

I think Pompei has a great point and I wonder how many draft “experts” have picked up on the trend.  I look at Todd McShay‘s mock draft at ESPN and I see a huge run on linemen in the first round from 8 to 32 and almost all of the players taken are offensive tackles and defensive ends.  Certainly those positions are still important but will all of those teams, many of whom need an upgrade inside, take a second rate prospect at those outside positions over a first rate interior lineman?  I have my doubts.

Certainly the Bears have always placed a premium on the defensive tackle position in part because of the scheme they run.  But most mock drafts continue to predict that they and other teams like them in the second half of the first round will go with a risky offensive tackle “project” with “potential” figuring they can pick up a guard and/or center later.  I don’t think this is a good way of approaching the draft anymore.

Admittedly offensive coordinator Mike Martz bucks the offensive trend that Pompei describes in that his ideal scheme includes more deep routes and plenty of seven step drops.  Martz absolutely has to have good tackles for that.  But I’m not so sure the Bears are going to find an upgrade at left tackle late in round one.  On the other hand, as Pompei implies here, Danny Watkins at guard might make the line decidedly better in another important way.

I wouldn’t be surprised if other teams aren’t thinking the same way and you start to wonder if those who “reach” for interior offensive linemen will actually be reaching at all.

In any case just how much the game has changed and in what way will be indicated by the choices teams make in the second half of round one and early in round two.  Don’t be surprised if the trend is different from what people expect.