Bear(ing) the News – A Chicago Bears Blog

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Seems like the addition of Cole Kmet says Matt Nagy is planning on using a lot of two-tight-end formations. How does this compare to what the Chiefs/Eagles have been doing in the past few years? Can you comment on how different the Bears offense might look this year based on the offseason? — @roybal5598

“That’s something we should certainly see more of this season, but I’d caution you not to get carried away with the idea we’re going to see a dramatic shift. You’re talking about 12 personnel — one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers — something that has fallen out of favor across the league the last few years. As passing offenses have exploded, we’ve seen a trend toward much more 11 personnel — one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers.

“The Bears were near the bottom of the league in using 12 personnel last season. It stands to reason. Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen, their top two tight ends entering the season, struggled to stay healthy or perform when they were on the field. The result was the Bears ranked 28th with 123 snaps in 12 personnel. That was a big drop-off from Nagy’s first season, when they ranked 11th with 182 snaps. So we’re talking about 59 snaps being the difference between near the bottom of the league and on the verge of the top 10. Over the course of a season, that’s fewer than four snaps per game.

“Here’s how the Chiefs and Eagles ranked the last two seasons:
2019 Chiefs: 299 snaps in 12 personnel, third in NFL
2018 Chiefs: 274 snaps in 12 personnel, third in NFL
2019 Eagles: 528 snaps in 12 personnel, most in NFL
2018 Eagles: 347 snaps in 12 personnel, second in NFL

“The Eagles made a huge jump last season, but that was need-based more than anything. Injuries decimated their depth chart at wide receiver and forced them to adjust with personnel groupings, leaning more on multiple tight ends.

“With Jimmy Graham and Kmet in the mix, Nagy will be able to return to using more 12 personnel, which he likes to do. It should allow the Bears to create more gaps in the running game to defend. It’s also a great package to throw out of when the defense adjusts to defend the run. It can make it easier to max protect in order to take deep shots downfield or in the play-action game. It gives the quarterback big bodies to throw to in the middle of the field, the kind of easy completions any quarterback needs.

“What the Bears don’t have is Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, so I don’t know that they’re going to shoot to the top of that list. But if Graham and Kmet can play well, there are questions about the depth at wide receiver and running more 12 personnel would reduce the need to rely on a third wide receiver as much. Their third wide receiver last season in terms of catches was Taylor Gabriel with 29. The hope is that Ted Ginn Jr. and rookie Darnell Mooney can combine to produce a good bit more than that.”

I would go even farther than Biggs and suggest that the ability to go to 12 personnel was the single most important missing component in the offense last year and the year before. Though I doubt Mitch Trubisky would have been great, I would suggest he would have been decidedly better if the Bears had had even one tight end that they could have relied on.  The possibility of the run with two good tight ends would have reduced the degree to which teams shifted around to confuse Trubisky after the snap.

A couple years ago I came across this article written by Brian Solomon at The Athletic just after the Eagles had drafted Dallas Goedert in the second round of the NFL draft.  The Eagles were receiving heavy criticism from their fans for the pick, much like the flack Bears general manager Ryan Pace is getting from some quarters after the Kmet pick.

This article made for fascinating reading and gave great insight into how the Andy Reid tree of coaches uses the tight end.

“If anything from the Eagles’ 2018 draft has drawn criticism, it’s Howie Roseman and company spending their only pick in the first three rounds on a tight end. Yes, the team said goodbye to both Brent Celek and Trey Burton in March. But Zach Ertz, fresh off his first Pro Bowl selection and a Super Bowl-winning touchdown reception, is signed through 2021.”

“It’s a fair question. The answer lies in how the Eagles used multiple-tight end formations as a critical passing weapon, which they unleashed in high-leverage moments. Let’s take a look.

“The first thing to know about the Eagles and their tight ends is that — compared to most of the other 31 NFL teams — the Eagles don’t hesitate to run with one tight end on the field or pass with two tight ends. In snaps prior to the red zone, the Eagles used 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) and 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) at about a league-average clip. Yet the average team in 11 personnel passed 69 percent of the time, while the Eagles were more conservative, calling a pass on 60 percent of plays. In 12 personnel, the average team’s willingness to throw dropped precipitously to 45 percent, while the Eagles’ tendencies were relatively unchanged at 57 percent pass plays — the second-highest rate behind only Doug Pederson’s old team, the Kansas City Chiefs.

“What these tendencies show is that when most teams swapped out a wide receiver for a second tight end, they generally planned to run and wanted to gain a blocking edge. The Eagles, by contrast, were more balanced. Whether their four non-running back skill players were wide receivers or tight ends largely didn’t affect their play-calling.”

“While the average NFL team only used two or three tight ends in the red zone about a third of the time, the Eagles deployed multiple tight ends on 41 percent of red-zone snaps. Pederson then called pass plays on 52 percent of those plays compared to a 35 percent league average. The result: 16 touchdown receptions and 0 interceptions on just 32 passes. That includes six touchdowns on eight passes with three or more tight ends (or an extra offensive lineman) in the game. Granted, the Eagles’ red-zone offense was effective throwing out of nearly any formation last year. But that scorching success rate stands out no matter how you slice it.”

Of course, the Eagles have Ertz, a wonderful Pro Bowl tight end, to rely upon. Still, Solomon also points out that the other two Eagles tight ends in 2017 were not created equal. Check out the production by each combination on the field in this table:

The statistics indicate that the offensive production jumped to 7.7 yards per pass and 5.6 yards per carry when Ertz was paired with Burton compared to 3.2 and 3.9 when paired with the aging Celek.

That success continued in the playoffs as the Ertz-Burton combination produced 8.9 yards per play including 9.7 yards per pass on the way to the Lombardi Trophy with Nick Foles under center.

I’m not suggesting that the combination of an aging Graham and rookie Kmet will produce like the Eagles did with Ertz on the field. But what the Eagles did out of two tight ends tells the story when you consider that the position has been a priority with Matt Nagy. Put Tarik Cohen on the field with them and you put defenses in a bind as they need to consider the possibility of the run even as they choose who to cover with a linebacker.

The Bears haven’t produced at this position under Nagy. But if things come together, the possibilities are there.

My feeling is that most Bears fans believe that taking Jaylon Johnson in the second round was the Bears’ best pick in the draft. Most have him penciled in as an instant starter in place of the departing Prince Amukamara.

Amongst all of the optimism surrounding this pick, I thought it would be good thing to pull the comments on Johnson from Bob McGinn‘s pre-draft article on the defensive backs in The Athletic to see what it said. For those not in the know, McGinn is known for getting provocative quotes from scouts on the draft prospects.

Typically for each prospect he’ll have at least one review where a scout has mostly good things to say about the prospect followed by at least one that is very negative. Here is what the negative scout had to say about Johnson :

“He’s a stiff player that tends to play high. He’s out of balance at the top of routes. When he’s playing off he has dirty eyes. Average to below tackler. He does not hunt the ball. He lacks change of direction when playing off. Good ball production. Does a nice job when matched up with large receivers. He’ll go in the first or second. Would I take him there? No.”

Most scouting reports mentioned Johnson’s flaws when playing off coverage and its obvious that its his man-to-man press coverage that got him drafted.

I assume most coaches believe that if you have the athleticism to play man coverage, they can coach you up for the rest. We shall see.

Jason Lieser at the Chicago Sun-Times bags on the Bears for releasing Trey Burton.

“[A] risky bet at tight end gets even riskier. Before last week, it looked like the Bears’ plan was to hope Burton got back to how he played in 2018 — a career-best 54 catches, 569 yards and six touchdowns — and/or Jimmy Graham suddenly emerged from his three-year slide at 33.

“Now it’s Graham or bust. At least that’s how the rest of the world sees it.

“‘There are some guys in that tight end room that are very intriguing and interesting for us,’ Pace said. ‘But also it’s a good tight end draft.’

“The six returning tight ends have a combined total of 61 career catches, and Demetrius Harris’ best output was 18 catches in 2017.

“And almost no one thinks this is a good draft for tight ends.”

Let me say  up front that I mostly agree with Lieser here.  Keeping Adam Shaheen, who has shown nothing since he was drafted in 2017, while throwing away Trey Burton, who has at least shown that he can be productive, seems to me to be a contradiction.

I understand that Burton’s got a relatively high salary and the Bears are up against the cap.  But perhaps they would have more cap room if they hadn’t chosen to throw $9 million guaranteed at a tight end who is over 30 and in decline.

Having said that, I’ll allow that “productive” is a relative term.  Availability is the best ability and Burton certainly has not been that, having missed the 2018 playoffs and all of 2019 with injuries.  Burton finished what was for all practical purposes his only season, 2018, with 54 catches for 569 yards.  That’s hardly star quality.

Burton’s signing combined with Shaheen’s less than impressive resume to this point compounds and highlights the problems that Pace has had evaluating the position.  Add the apparent misses on Mitch Trubisky, Kevin White and Leonard Floyd and you aren’t going to get much positive press nowadays.

As for the draft, I found Pace’s comment about the tight end class to be interesting.  As Lieser says, the class has been almost universally panned.

General managers are often misleading before the draft but they rarely out right lie.   If Pace thinks it’s a good tight end class, I’d say that there’s a chance that he’s thinking of one earlier than most people would expect.

Go against the common wisdom and draft a really good, impact player at the position and no one will be talking about Burton in two years.

Just don’t be wrong.  Again.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions. And mine:

“I ask people about Ryan Pace and I get the two extremes. Either people defend him to the hilt for signings like Akiem Hicks or they trash him for decisions like the Mitch Trubisky pick. A year after winning Executive of the Year, Pace was rated the 19th-best general manager in the league by NFL.com. The list had only 25 GMs with a minimum of two offseasons. That put Pace in the bottom quarter of the league. Justified? — Tom S., Chicago

“I wasn’t familiar with this ranking until you mentioned it and I went and found it. The top of the list is populated by guys leading a lot of the teams consistently in the playoff mix. Eight of the top 12 were with playoff teams last season. Two other playoff GMs were non-qualifiers because they’re still new on the job. The Vikings’ Rick Spielman and the Packers’ Brian Gutekunst were the only GMs of playoff teams ranked outside the top 12. Pace has been on the job for five seasons and the Bears have had one winning season and one playoff appearance with no postseason victories. If they rebound this season and reach the playoffs, I’m guessing he would vault forward and get credit for the moves that brought the team success in 2020. Ultimately GMs are judged by their record. If you’re looking at the Bears record over the long haul, it’s underwhelming. The beauty is every team will start 0-0 this season with an opportunity to chart a new course. What matters to the Bears is how they perform this season. If they win, Pace would deserve to be bumped up, right? If they don’t, then maybe No. 19 was just about right. The 2017 draft always will be linked to Pace, but he has made moves to improve the organization and is credited as the driving force behind the impressive Halas Hall expansion and the introduction of many new layers of technology.”

I certainly do agree that Pace will be bumped up if the Bears win this year. And the more they win this year, the more he will be bumped up. If they win 12 games again, he’ll be executive of the year again. That’s the way the league and its fans work.

But having said that, I think Pace is more susceptible to this up and down motion that most.

In his five seasons with the Bears on thing has become evident about Pace. He’s extremely aggressive. Part of that is because he comes from a Saints organization that has the same philosophy. Pace has traded up in the draft six times compared to only three times moving down. He favors the kind of maneuvering that leaves you constantly short on both draft picks and cap space.

Pace evidently believes that general managers should be like young players in training camp. Many coaches tell rookies just one thing about making mistakes. You are going to do it. Just make sure that when it happens, you do it at full speed.

That’s how you end up trading up to get Mitch Trubisky even though most pundits didn’t think it was necessary. Thats why you pay $9 million guaranteed to a tight end on the wrong side of thirty that everyone else thinks is in decline.

If you believe in it, you don’t take anything off of the pass. You throw the deep ball as hard as you can. Whether you are about to hit on a player who is going to make your career or who is going to be its biggest mistake, you do it with every aggressive bone in your body screaming.

That’s how you end up on the roller coaster of public opinion. You are always going to be judged on your latest on top of the world success or your biggest lower than a snakes belly depression.

Where will Pace be on next year’s list? Who knows. But where ever it is, he’s headed there extremely fast.

Colleen Kane at the Chicago Tribune quotes Bears general manager Ryan Pace on why he has failed to take quarterbacks in the draft.

“‘To be honest, when we got here, we had so many needs, there were so many holes to fill throughout the roster, you’re doing whatever you can to fill those holes,’ Pace said. ‘And so sometimes when you look at the draft and you have more talented players on the board that are also hitting major positions of need and major holes on this offense, it doesn’t always line up.

“‘But I do think that drafting a quarterback, developing quarterbacks, that’s important for the franchise for a lot of different reasons. You’ve seen teams do that to their advantage to flip them for draft picks. It’s something we talk about. It just hasn’t been something that’s lined up in recent drafts.”‘

Yada, yada, yada.

My tendency when it comes to this topic has been to cut Pace some slack because since 2017 the coaching staff has been concentrating on developing Mitch Trubisky and drafting another quarterback might have been counter productive.

But what I’m reading above is just nonsense. Pace is making excuses rather than pointing the thumb and blaming himself for his lack of long-term vision.

Pulling the trigger and actually taking a player for the long-term health of the franchise, one that might not provide any immediate benefit, takes discipline.  And Pace’s comments tell me nothing more than he lacks it.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Was the Nick Foles trade a way for Ryan Pace to add a veteran quarterback without admitting Mitch Trubisky is not the guy? — @jhartzmark

“No. How is it not apparent that swapping a fourth-round pick
and guaranteeing Foles a little more than $20 million isn’t a complete
admission that Trubisky is not the guy? If Trubisky were the guy, the Bears would have kept the draft pick and earmarked that money for other needs.

“This isn’t the kind of investment a team makes for a QB2. It’s far and away more than they provided for Chase Daniel to be the clipboard holder the last two seasons. The addition of Foles signals a restructuring of the depth chart at the position that will happen soon. I don’t believe the Bears added Foles to motivate or push Trubisky and I don’t believe he was brought in to be a fallback plan in the event Trubisky is inconsistent at the start of the season. Follow the money and put the pieces together. This move was made to get a starting quarterback for the start of the 2020 season. That’s my takeaway.”

Biggs has been very vocal in his opinion that Foles will be the starting quarterback this September.  I’m not so sure for a variety of reasons:

1. The follow the money point of view is always one that is always well taken. But Foles really isn’t getting paid starting quarterback money in today’s NFL. Its true that $21 million is a lot to pay for
   a quarterback who to the bench.  But I think the Bears would gladly pay it if Trubisky actually won the job.

   I prefer to think of this philosophy less in terms of money than in terms of investment. Guaranteeing someone s lot of money is most assuredly an investment. But so is drafting and spending three years developing a young quarterback who, if he develops, could stabilize your franchise for 10 years yet.

   Trubisky rebounding to have a good year would be far and away the best outcome for the Bears, no matter how unlikely you think the odds are that will happen

2. I’ve already made the point that patience may pay off for the Bears when it comes to Trubisky.His history at North Carolina points to the possibility that he’s slow
   to develop but that once he figures it out, he could be very good.

   There’s no doubt that Trubisky has to do a better job of learning the offense. This is the only way that he will ever get to the point where he can anticipate and respond to movement after the snap. But time may take care of the issue.

3. The Bears have a better idea of how to handle Trubisky now than they did last season.Trubisky seems to respond well to pressure, at least on the field. Bringing the team back to put them into field goal range in the playoff loss to the Eagles with minimal time on the clock was the most well-known example but it wasn’t the only time he’s done that. Its happened often enough to where you have to believe it wasn’t a fluke.Everything head coach Matt Nagy touched in 2018 turned to gold, eventually earning him coach of the year honors. But its fair to say the opposite happened in 2019. That starts with the way he handled Trubisky.In the offseason of 2019, the Nagy turned the heat down on Trubisky, actually telling the media that he had to encourage Trubisky to go home and relax in the offseason. He gave Trubisky, along with the entire team, the preseason off.I think its fair to say there will be no more of that this year.

   The Bears are turning the heat up on Trubisky by adding Foles and, in my opinion, probably another rookie in the draft. And Nagy has already confirmed that the quarterbacks will be competing in the preseason games.

   I think his history on the field suggests that Trubisky might respond.  In either case, they clearly aren’t committing the sin of doing the same thing over and over again hoping the result will be different every time.

Last year at this time I can remember the whole NFL predicting
huge things from the Bears offense with Trubisky taking the next step in his development. Just as I thought this was
an overly optimistic point of view then, I find the extreme pessimism exhibited by some of the same members of the media now to be an overreaction.

I’m not saying that Biggs isn’t right and that Foles won’t be beginning the season as the starter. In fact, I think
the odds are reasonably good he will be. The Bears clearly aren’t going to stick with a quarterback who isn’t working out. The position is too important. Certainly the Foles signing
is an acknowledgement of that.

But completely discounting a 25 year old quarterback after a one
year regression doesn’t sound to me like something the Bears will be – or should be – doing. And I certainly don’t think signing Foles indicates that they have.

• Colleen Kane, Dan Wiederer and Brad Biggs pass on free agency information:

“Chase Daniel is headed to the Lions on a three-year deal, ESPN reported.

“What it means: It was known the Bears likely weren’t going to bring Chase Daniel back for a third season as Mitch Trubisky’s backup, so he moves on to be the backup to Matthew Stafford.

“The Lions will be his fifth team in 11 seasons, a remarkable career for someone who has made only five starts. For the Bears, Daniel was a veteran presence to help guide Trubisky through coach Matt Nagy’s offense, and he also served as a team leader and the Bears’ representative to the NFLPA. He also started three games, throwing six touchdown passes and four interceptions. His presence is valued enough that the Lions gave him a $13.05 million deal, which contains a voidable clause.”

I think its fair to wonder if the Lions signed Daniels with more than just being a competent back up in mind.  Daniels was by all accounts a good mentor for Trubisky when he was with the Bears.

The odds in Las Vegas that the Lions will take Tagovailoa?  -110.  That’s tied for the top spot with the Dolphins.  Despite all of the denials coming from the Lions camp, sometimes actions speak louder than words.

• Kevin Fishbain at The Athletic gives some thoughts on the Robert Quinn signing:

“The Bears went from sacking the quarterback on 8.1 percent of pass attempts in 2018 (ninth in the NFL) to 5.6 percent in 2019, which ranked 27th. [Bears pass rusher Khalil] Mack didn’t put up his usual numbers. Akiem Hicks missed 11 games. But Floyd should have had plenty of opportunities to have a breakout season. Instead, he had one sack in the final 15 games after two in the opener.”

A good part of the reason for the Bears disappointing 2019 season was due to the failure of several young players to bloom as anticipated.  Chief among these was quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and tight end Adam Shaheen.  But Floyd’s failure to develop was close behind and was a major problem last year despite the defense’s solid statistics.

Early in his career, former Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio helped Floyd out by scheming relatively easy sacks for him.  That stopped when Fangio left and with the hiring of Chuck Pagano.

Nevertheless, with Mack getting triple teamed, Floyd never saw a double team on the other side all year.  Three sacks under those conditions just won’t cut it.

Quinn, on the other hand, is also a bit worrisome.  He’s a couple years older than you would like and, though he certainly performed for the Cowboys last year, he looked miserable with the Dolphins and at the end with the Rams before that.  Which Robert Quinn are the Bears getting?

Nevertheless, one would expect that Quinn will do a better job of beating offensive linemen one-on-one than Floyd did.

• Biggs comments on the signing of tight end Jimmy Graham:

“Graham, 33, was a dynamic target earlier in his career with the Saints, but he hasn’t run well in recent seasons, making it difficult to envision that he will emerge as a threat for Bears coach Matt Nagy. Graham made 38 receptions for 447 yards with three touchdowns for the Packers last season while playing with Aaron Rodgers. So how will he look with Mitch Trubisky or pick-your-replacement? And who exactly were the Bears bidding against?”

Exactly.

I can’t imagine there was another team willing to pay Graham half of that money.

General manager Ryan Pace frequently uses the word “conviction” when talking about the pursuit of players.  As a result, you almost get the impression that he doesn’t negotiate.  He just decides what a player is worth regardless of the market and makes the offer.  No wonder agents do hand springs every time the Bears call.

I have no idea what Pace saw in Graham that made him think he was worth that kind of money.  Perhaps it was fond memories of what Graham did on his fantasy team in 2014.

Unfortunately the reality in 2020 is that Graham is an older player who has lost his explosiveness to bad knees.

Perhaps even worse, since Graham doesn’t block, he doesn’t fill the gaping hole at Y tight end that the Bears desperately need to fill.  If Trey Burton has finally recovered from surgery and is healthy, he’s shown before that he can perform at the U position.

But Shaheen has been a non-entity every time he has stepped on the field, which has been rarely due to injury.  I’m sure recent signing Demetrius Harris is a fine player but he’s undersized and he’s not really a starter.

Finding a player to fill that hole at the Y tight end is critical.  Paying double what you should for a broken down player at a position of lesser need can only eat up cap space and hurt that effort.

• Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“Do you think it’s more likely the Bears draft a quarterback in Round 2 or trade down and recoup picks? — joshua726_gs “Choosing solely between those two options, my hunch is the Bears would be more likely to trade down with one of their second-round picks than draft a quarterback in Round 2. As I said above, they’re in win-now mode with the defense they have, and I expect them to address the 2020 quarterback situation via free agency or a trade. Maybe they would explore a quarterback later in the draft, but unless there is a guy on the board whom coach Matt Nagy is completely in love with, I don’t see how they choose a quarterback in the
second round.” “If Jalen Hurts is there for the Bears at No. 43 or 50, why would they not pull the trigger? What’s the knock on this guy? He’s everything Matt Nagy needs for this type of offense, from being able to extend plays to making correct reads using RPOs.— @king8off “Hurts had a solid performance at the scouting combine and has a ton of college experience at the highest level playing in a lot of big games. He has terrific character and in some ways compares to Deshaun Watson
as a gym-rat kind of guy with a true passion for the game. But scouts I’ve talked to have questions about Hurts’ ability to excel as a pocket passer. I
don’t know how the Bears feel about him. I doubt he’s off the board before the Bears pick, but you never know because it takes only one team to fall in love with a player. Hurts could have a lengthy pro career, but I haven’t talked to anyone who views him as a front-line starter. Keep in mind he played with some of the top skill-position talent in college football at Alabama and Oklahoma, so he always has been surrounded with great players.” “Are Cam Newton and Derek Carr on [Bears GM] Ryan Pace’s
radar? — @thegeorgeyou “If the Raiders made Carr available, I see a possibility the Bears would be interested. The Raiders aren’t going to ship out Carr unless they first replace him with a player they view as an upgrade. A high-stakes game of musical chairs will take place for quarterbacks once the new league year begins. Newton has serious questions regarding his health. Is his shoulder healed? He didn’t throw the ball well last year after he suffered a Lisfranc injury in his left foot. That’s also a serious injury.”

All of these are sensible responses but I do hope they take a quarterback somewhere in the draft.  Like almost all GMs and every one the Bears have had for the last 20 years, Pace has said multiple times that he’s like to take one every year.  The problem is that all of those GMs had multiple immediate needs and quarterback picks beyond the first round are part
of future planning. It take discipline to take a quarterback and plan for the future of the franchise when you are in “win now” mode.  The Bears have struggled to find one with the proper attitude and vision to do it. As far as Hurts goes, the question is out of line with reality.  Hurts is unlikely to go before the third round and probably won’t go until the fourth.  That’s where likely backups with an outside chance to start generally go. It looks very unlikely that Derek Carr is going to be traded.  Via profootballtalk.com:

“The Raiders coach [Jon Gruden], appearing recently at an
event in the team’s new hometown, bristled at a question about the team’s interest in the six-time Super Bowl winner. “‘You’re killing me, man,’ Gruden said, via John Katsilometes of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. ‘We love our quarterback. Our quarterback’s a really good player, Derek Carr. I want to reiterate that to everybody here in Vegas.
We’ve got a good, young quarterback, and the film, the statistics and analytics prove it.'” “The Raiders previously have been linked to [Tom] Brady, nearly a month has passed without any significant reporting linking Brady to Las Vegas. If the Raiders were plotting a run at Brady, more r ports to that
effect likely would have emerged, especially since Gruden (as former Gruden pupil Chris Simms has surmised in the past) would be unable to not bounce the possibility off of others, who would then be tempted to tell a reporter or two that Gruden is talking about chasing Brady.'”

• Biggs and Dan Wiederer take a position-by-position look a the
  Bears heading into free agency:

“Don’t be surprised if …: Vic Beasley becomes a top target for Ryan Pace. Beasley was drafted eighth in 2015, one pick after the Bears chose Kevin White. Beasley’s best season came in 2016 whe he recorded 15½ sacks, earned first-team All-Pro honors and helped the Falcons win the NFC. Beasley had only 18 sacks total in the three seasons since then. But some
believe his top-level potential could be unlocked again if he lands in a new place with a coaching staff and teammates who quickly learn which buttons to push.”

Beasley reminds me a bit more of current Bears linebacker Leonard Floyd than I’m comfortable with.  We’ve heard every year about Floyd’s potential and every year the sacks don’t come.  If Floyd was ever going to break through, it should have been last year when Khalil Mack was
frequently triple teamed on the other side. Still, at least Beasley has had one good season.  And he wasn’t always used in the proper way in the Falcons scheme under head coach Dan Quinn.  Beasley might benefit from starting at linebacker in the Bears 3-4 base.  And he’s almost certainly be cheaper than the $13 million the Bears are currently set to pay Floyd.

• Biggs and Wiederer continue:

“Biggest storylines: Even with an obvious glaring need at the position, it’s
difficult to imagine the Bears will be willing to engage in the high-priced bidding wars that likely will ensue for players such as [Austin] Hooper.
Don’t forget: Trey Burton still has two years remaining on the $32 million contract he signed in 2018, with the Bears on the hook for $4 million guaranteed and up to $6.8 million overall in 2020. Still, for a sputtering offense that got next to nothing out of the tight end position last season, the Bears have to remain aggressive in free agency and the draft to make certain they upgrade their talent and depth. A patient approach in free agency might prove most prudent. As the market settles and the second wave of free agency begins, the Bears might be able to find a reliable
veteran at a bargain price. It also will be interesting to see how the pursuit of [Eric] Ebron unfolds leaguewide. The 26-year-old tight end had a career year in 2018 with 66 catches, 750 yards and 13 touchdowns. “Don’t be surprised if …: Adam Shaheen is not on the Bears roster come September. Shaheen is set to enter the final season of his rookie deal with an uphill climb to stick around. He has been injury prone and unreliable through his first three seasons, totaling just 26 catches for 249 yards while missing 21 games. That production is hardly befitting of a player selected with the 45th pick in the 2017 draft. And the Bears made clear when last season ended that availability would be a major focus in their evaluation.”

First I agree that Shaheen could well be off the roster in September.  Unlike Burton, Shaheen has never been able to perform even when he was healthy. In contrast, however, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see the Bears pursue Hooper and rumor has it that they are interested.  Pace has an aggressive nature and, right or wrong, going after Hooper looks to me like the kind of thing he would do.

• Adam Jahns at The Athletic answers your questions:

“Do the Bears think they made the right decision by letting [former Bears safety Adrian] Amos go and signing Ha Ha Clinton Dix? Of course economics played a part in the decision. — Joe S.  “Yes, they do — and everyone should feel the same. Adrian Amos is a good starter but he isn’t a great one. With safety Eddie Jackson eventually getting a $58.4 million extension this offseason, spending significant money on Amos last year wouldn’t have been wise. There is only so much to go around for one position. “Playmakers get paid first too. In his career, Amos has five interceptions, 26 pass breakups and three forced fumbles in 76 games, which includes 72 starts. One of those interceptions came against the Bears in Week 1 of last season. Jackson is different; he’s elite. He has 10 interceptions, 26 pass breakups and four forced fumbles in 46 games.”

Agreed. Having said that, its worth pointing out that this wasn’t a bad signing for the
Packers.  They knew exactly what they were getting and they got exactly what they wanted. Amos wasn’t ever going to be a turnover generating machine.  What he does do really well is his job in terms of getting into the right place at the right time.  That’s what they wanted.  A reliable back stop that would allow they to do what they needed to do with their scheme in front of him.

• Continuing on the subject of safety, Jahns and Kevin Fishbain address the position as they consider which of the departing veteran free agents should be resigned

“Ha Ha Clinton-Dix “Age: 27 “2019 stats: 16 games, 16 starts; 78 tackles, two interceptions, five passes
defensed, two fumble recoveries “Should he be re-signed? “Jahns: Yes but also no. Clinton Dix is a starter, but his return depends on other options. The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia recently paired the Bears with safety Vonn Bell. I agree with it, too. The Bears need to add a safety that will allow Eddie Jackson to roam free on the back end. He didn’t do that enough in 2019. If the Bears do bring back Clinton-Dix — he seemed to hint at it on Twitter — then defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano needs to find ways to maximize what Jackson does best.  “Fishbain: Maybe. The Bears liked the pairing of Clinton-Dix and Jackson. The two former Alabama safeties are friends and enjoyed playing together, and Clinton-Dix’s tweet would suggest it’s a possibility. There’s also the thought of getting someone that complements Jackson’s center-field abilities better like Bell or Kenny Vaccaro or Tony Jefferson … or a draft pick, which would be cheaper than Clinton-Dix. But if the former first-rounder is willing — again — to play for the Bears at a reasonable price, why not?”

I’m really not sure why the answers were so equivocal here.  The answer is a flat “no”.   As Jahns hints, the Bears tried to make it work with Clinton-Dix last year by moving Jackson to strong safeties.  This was a down grade at both positions.  Clinton-Dix isn’t as good as Jackson at free safety and Jackson wasn’t as effective in the box. The Bears need to let go of Clinton-Dix and sign or draft a box safety so they can move Jackson back where he belongs.

• Jahns and Fishbain continue:

“Isaiah Irving (restricted free agent) “Age: 25 “2019 stats: 13 games, zero starts; 10 tackles, one QB hit, four tackles on special teams “Should he be re-signed? “Jahns: Yes. He’s a young player and the cost will be low. The better question is whether he’ll make the roster after training camp. There will be new competition for him. “Fishbain: Yes. The Bears won’t tender Irving, but will likely re-sign him on a cheaper contract like DeAndre Houston-Carson did last season. He can still compete to be a rotational edge rusher and special teams contributor. The OLB spot is too thin to not bring him back.”

No.   I have been a fan of Irving and I’ve thought for a couple years that he might develop into something.  But the fact of the matter is that he hasn’t and if he was going to, he would have done it by now. The Beas need to move on and find someone to fill that roster spot who still has the potential to become a future starter.

• Dan Durkin at The Athletic also looks at the Bears roster needs:

“Offensive guard “The Bears have a crater-sized hole at right guard. Kyle Long was physically unable to perform his job last year and the contingency plans the team had at the position faltered. Rashaad Coward was given an extended look and
showed he is not a viable NFL starter on offense. “It’s curious that the team continued to play Coward and didn’t take a look at Alex Bars, whom they elevated to the active roster to keep from signing with the New England Patriots. They gained no observable data about Bars’ ability to play in the NFL, which was a miscalculation by the front office and coaching staff.”

What the Bears do at the interior offensive line positions in free agency and the draft will be fascinating. Right now there are a lot of unknowns.  What do they think of Bars?  Did they hold him out all of last year because he wasn’t fully recovered from knee surgery in 2018?  Or do they have doubts about his ability, especially with his former offensive line coach at Notre Dame, Harry Hiestand, not with the Bears any more. What do they think of Coward?  He seemed to get better as the year wore on but was he good enough for the Bears to depend upon him to start in 2020?  Most observers don’t seem to think so. Finally, what do the Bears think of current left guard James Daniels and current center Cody Whitehair?  They tried to move Whitehair to guard and Daniels to center last year but the experiment failed and they switch positions again mid-season.  Whitehair is an excellent center and the Bears have said that they want to leave him there.  But they made that switch once for a reason and it would surprise no one to see him move back to guard to make room for a
new player. I have to figure the Beas will add someone to the group on the interior of the line.  Former Lions guard Graham Glasgow is hitting free agency but a cheaper choice might be former Broncos center Conner McGovern. McGovern played right guard his first two years in Denver and started at center the past two. He’s rated #78 on nfl.com’s top 101 free agent list and he should come at a reasonable price. It’s a weak draft for guards but its thought to be a good year for the center position. In any case, what the Bears do here will answer a lot of the questions surrounding their thoughts on the line.

• Kevin Fishbain and Adam Jahns The Athletic on the Bears reported interest in bringing Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton to Chicago:

“Our Athletic colleague in Cincinnati, Paul Dehner Jr., reported that the Bears have talked to the Bengals about Dalton, who has one year remaining on his contract. The Bill Lazor connection is there, and Dalton is a veteran who has made the playoffs multiple times. He makes a lot of sense, but can the Bears sign him instead of trade for him?

The last thing the Bears want to do is part with a second-round pick — which is what the Bengals will ask for in a trade — for a quarterback who was statistically worse than [Bears quarterback Mitch] Trubisky last season. Dalton, who turns 33 in October, had career-low marks in passer rating (78.3) and QBR (40.1) in 2019.”

I can’t imagine the Bengals demanding a second round pick for Andy Dalton.

For one thing, every team in the league pretty much knows they’ll release him if they can’t find a trade partner.  For another, if he was worth a second round pick they wouldn’t be looking to replace him.  Third the market is glutted with veteran quarterbacks.

I just can’t see it.  But on the off chance that the Bears actually did give up a second round pick for Dalton it would be the death of Mitch Trubisky as a starter for the team.  Dalton would almost have to start.  And I can’t imagine the Bears giving up on Trubisky without at least seeing what he can do for a few games next year.

• Via Profootballtalk.com:

“Word came last week at the Combine from the team website that the Bengals could move on from offensive lineman Cordy Glenn. Now, comes a more definitive report.

“According to Jenna Laine of ESPN, the Bengals are shopping Glenn, and if they can’t find a trade partner, they will release him.

“Glenn, 30, got in the team’s doghouse last year. He ended up playing six games, with five starts, and served a one-game suspension for an argument with an assistant coach.”

With reports circulating that the Bears have been talking with the Bengals about a trade for Dalton, you wonder if they have actually been meeting to talk about Glenn instead.

With limited cap space, the Bears would probably have to hope that the Bengals are willing to eat some of the salary that is owed no matter which player they are talking about.

• Fishbain and Jahns continue:

“[Case] Keenum, on the other hand, is a free agent. He played on a one-year, $3.5 million contract last season with Washington. Keenum, who turned 32 last month, had a 91.3 passer rating and 43.5 QBR in 10 games last season, which included eight starts.”

I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the Bears weren’t thinking very carefully about Keenum.  Keenum has shown that he can be successful under the right conditions as he won 13 games with the Vikings in 2017.  And the price will probably be right.  He’s a name to watch.

• Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com addresses the possibility that the Jaguars will trade Nick Foles:

“Foles, the Super Bowl LII MVP, has a fully-guaranteed salary of $15.125 million in 2020, along with $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses and a $250,000 workout bonus. Trading him would trigger a cap charge of $18.75 million, the remaining 3/4ths of his $25 million signing bonus from 2019.

“Faced with paying Foles nearly $16 million to back up Gardner Minshew II versus paying Foles nothing and eating $18.75 could be a justifiable swap, if the Jaguars have decided to ride with the sixth-rounder who took Jacksonville by storm as a rookie. And the below-market cash payout for 2020 could make the Foles contract attractive.”

Foles would make sense for the Bears.  But I’d say that, in contrast to the situation with Dalton, he might command a high pick in a trade that the Bears don’t have.  That $16 million salary might also have to be reduced.

But Foles has connections to both offensive coordinator Bill Lazer and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo.  So the possibility can’t be discounted if the price is right.

• Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

“What should the Bears’ strategy be in bringing in a quarterback? Should they be aggressive from the start of free agency in signing or trading for a quarterback or let the market dictate where it is headed so they don’t overpay for one? — @rickdaruler773

“The vibe I got last week in Indianapolis is the Bears have definitely prioritized the position — as they should — and will be aggressive. Whether things play out that way remains to be seen. General manager Ryan Pace knows he needs a life raft for the offense in the event Mitch Trubisky doesn’t show considerable improvement. The Bears can’t be left in a position where they are one-third of the way into the season, Trubisky has stumbled out of the gate and they don’t have a quarterback they feel can at least be steady with the defense still playing at a high level. The question is whether the Bears are willing to go hard at another quarterback with a promise he can start from Day 1. Or would they tell any potential candidates that Trubisky gets the first shot at the job? Which way they go could put them in a different class of quarterbacks. It won’t be cheap, but there isn’t an easy way out when a team trades up to use the No. 2 pick on a quarterback and three years later has more doubt and questions than confidence and answers.”

I’m reasonably sure that the Bears won’t promise whoever it is that he will be the day 1 starter.  For one thing, they haven’t created the cap space to pay one.

I’m sure they’ll tell potential signees that they can compete for the job in a fair competition.  But even that won’t be the case.

The reality is that the Bears want the Trubisky pick to work out and it will be his job to lose.  And anyone who signs will know that whether they tell him or not.

They’re likely looking at signing a second tier free agent.

• Rick Morrissey at the Chicago Sun-Times comments on the Bears quarterback situation:

“Do you ever get the feeling that public pressure has dragged the Bears, kicking and screaming, into looking for a quarterback to “push” Mitch Trubisky in 2020? That, left to their own devices, they’d not only stick with the status quo, they’d take regular naps with it? I get that feeling about 10 times a day.

“And that word — push. It’s so non-confrontational. It doesn’t want to step on Mitch’s toes. It says: ‘Your job is secure, dear one. We simply want to help you discover the best version of yourself.'”

I think Morrissey is being a little harsh in his criticism overall in this column but  there’s something to what he says here.

As I said above, there’s little doubt the Bears still want Trubisky to succeed.  However, there’s been a definite shift in the way that they have decided to handle him.  In contrast to last year they appear to be taking a tough love approach to getting Trubisky to the point where he can perform better rather than trying to replace him.

Head coach Matt Nagy is undoubtedly tired of cutting his playbook down to accommodate Trubisky.  In previous years they’ve been gentle and supportive but this offseason its evident that its going to be “learn the playbook backward and forward and get better in the offseason or you’re out”.  Instead of telling him to relax in the offseason, they’re telling him to go to work.

Whether the competition is legitimate or not, there’s can be little doubt that just having one is a good part of the reason for bringing in quarterbacks that are more capable of adding to it.

• Biggs answers another one:

“Do you sense that Ryan Pace will stick with Trey Burton as the primary tight end and not look to upgrade via the draft or free agency? — @johnnyograddy

“I believe Burton will be on the roster this coming season because of the money he’s guaranteed. I also believe the Bears will continue to look for help at the position, which they already did by signing Demetrius Harris. Pace could look to draft a tight end in the second round or trade for one. I doubt the Bears will be big spenders at the position in free agency, but I am pretty certain they are not done adding to the depth chart. There will be new options in the event Burton cannot make a strong comeback from his injury-riddled 2019 season.”

I think it’s important to note that brining in competition at the U tight end position probably isn’t at the top of the Bears list.  They are reasonably sure that Burton can produce when he’s healthy.  What the Bears are looking to do is replace Adam Shaheen at the Y-position.  That requires a different sort of player, one who is bigger and can block.

• More Fishbain and Jahns:

“An interesting theme of Bears-related conversations at the combine? Virtually no one brought up the defense. It’s understood that while there are some moves to be made at inside linebacker, outside linebacker, safety and corner, this is still a formidable unit … but one that needs the right offense to complement it.”

The Bears defense is an underrated need. They did well last year but if you aren’t getting better, you are getting worse.  And the have some definite holes to fill.

There is plenty of talk about which inside linebacker, Nick Kwitkowski or Danny Trevathan, that the Bears will try to sign (it cold be neither).  But safety, cornerback and, especially, pass rush are needs this offseason that are every bit as big as guard and wide receiver.

• Biggs answers yet more questions:

“Juan Castillo has bounced around a bit since he left the Eagles in 2012. He was out of the league last year. Cause for concern? — @bearingthenews

“Castillo has worked for the Ravens and Bills since leaving Philadelphia and spent last fall doing some work for Jim Harbaugh at the University of Michigan. Matt Nagy hired an offensive line coach he has a background with, and that kind of relationship can go a long way. Coaches often feel most comfortable with a guy they know well. Keep in mind the personnel will be very similar to last season.”

“Despite all the quarterback talk, I feel the offensive line is the biggest team issue. Are they going to try to upgrade that front five? — @stevehayes3434

“The offensive line was not good enough last season, but it also wasn’t the reason Mitch Trubisky, by almost all measures, was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. I’ve gotten this sentiment in the mailbag for some time now, and I think some Bears fans are conditioned to accept subpar quarterback play and look for other reasons to deflect the organization’s greatest issue. The Bears will be in the market for a starting right guard. I would be surprised if they make a big investment there. New offensive line coach Juan Castillo prefers athletic linemen, so look for them to sign a guard who moves relatively well. The other four starters appear pretty much locked in.”

“I know the offensive line will need a shakeup. Do you envision Alex Bars potentially in the starting lineup? — Shaun W., Carrollton, Texas

“With a new offensive line coach in place, Bars will be evaluated and has a shot to stick on the roster as a depth player, but I imagine the Bears will seek a veteran option as the front-runner at right guard. This will be a big offseason and summer for Bars to show Juan Castillo what he has. I wouldn’t rule him out by any measure, but the Bears probably need to get some experience in the mix.”

The first one is mine.

Biggs is right in that it’s important to remember that it was the run blocking that was poor last year not the pass protection.  In fact, all things considered, the Bears offensive line was more than adequate in that respect.

The Bears are obviously depending on better coaching to improve the offensive line.  As Biggs points out, the Bears are basically locked in everywhere but right guard next year.  You can give other guys a chance to compete and they will.  But you’ll be sitting someone in whom the team has made a major investment if the current starters don’t’ win the job.

The one open job at guard is going to be interesting.  We were led to believe that Bars in particular had the potential to start and I’m surprised that Biggs was only willing to state that he “has a shot to stick as a depth play” with what appears to be only an outside chance to start.  He’s usually plugged in to what the team is thinking and it makes me wonder if they haven’t significantly cooled on Bars.

I’m sure Rashaad Coward will get his chance at that job, as well.  He wasn’t good enough as the starter last year but he seemed to get better as the season wore on.

In any case, the Bears likely aren’t going to be signing a lot of new help for the offensive line (though you can never rule out the unexpected with Pace – see the Cordy Glenn entry above).

Sometimes your so called good players just have to step up and play better.  There’s a reason four of those guys are locked in.  Right or wrong the Bears believe in them.

• Yet another question for Biggs:

Biggs continues:

“We know Ryan Pace is a trade-up guy. Let’s say he packages our two second-round picks, who’s the target? — @stcollins23

“Pace has been very aggressive in the draft since coming to the Bears, trading up in Round 1 for Leonard Floyd and Mitch Trubisky. I don’t think he will be motivated to make that move this time. He has had success in Round 2, and the Bears are better off with two picks in the top 50 than one, especially considering they’re tight in terms of salary-cap space and have needs on both sides of the ball.”

I think it’s more likely Pace trades back and tries to pick up a third rounder. For instance, a reasonable trade would be to go down from #50 overall to a pick late in the second round to pick up a late middle third rounder.

Given the dearth of Bears picks in the top half of the draft, I think this makes far more sense.

• Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com on the ratings that the combine generated after its move to prime time.

“Indeed, more than 29,000 who responded to a Twitter poll regarding consumption of televised Combine content said that they watched less this year than last year.

“The NFL seems to be intent on making the Scouting Combine into an even bigger offseason tentpole than it already is. But there may indeed be a hard ceiling on the level of interests in watching incoming rookies do a bunch of stuff that isn’t really football. And it could make more sense for the league to not cram an event that isn’t really ready for prime time into prime time.”

Count me as one who watched less of the Combine this year than in previous years.  I’ve also watched less of the draft since it moved to prime time.

There was a time when I planned to sit all afternoon on weekends enjoying these events.  But I work for a living and past a certain time of night I simply have to go to bed.

I might add that, although its not a factor in my case, there’s a lot more competition for eyes in prime time.

Josh Alper at profootballtalk.com quotes Indianapolis offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni as he describes what he wants to see quarterback Jacoby Brissett improve upon next year:

“Sirianni said that Brissett’s ‘ability to create and extend plays’ was a big plus during the 2019 season and that the quarterback ‘always knew where to go with the football.’ Where he’d like to see improvement in the future is in how quickly Brissett gets to that point.

“’And that comes with experience, and that comes with playing time,’ Sirianni said, via the team’s website. ‘You know, you see these guys that have been starting at quarterback at some of these franchises for, you know, 15, 16, 17, 18 years — like, there’s nothing those guys haven’t seen, alright? So sometimes it’s brand new, what he sees, but as you build those reps and you build that game experience, that really will speed that up. And that’s nothing but reps, and you get that in practice, and you really get that in games.'”

For those who are looking for hope for quarterback Mitch Trubisky, you need look no farther than these comments.

Brissett was drafted in 2016, one year ahead of Trubisky and yet Sirianni still thinks that hasn’t been enough time to for him to become really proficient at handling the things he sees on the field.  Add that Trubisky only started one year in college and you can see how his lack of experience could really be an issue even three years into his career.

The fact that Trubisky had to sit behind Marquis Williams, a relatively unknown quarterback with inferior talent, for his first three years of college was a red flag for many scouts going into the 2017 NFL draft.  One interpretation of this might be that Trubisky is one of those guys who is a bit slow to develop.  However, the fact that he was so good when it finally all came together also gave hope that the same thing might happen with time with the Bears.

We could be seeing that come into play.

It’s not a surprise that both Trubisky and Brissett are under fire and may lose their jobs this offseason.  The rapid development of other young quarterbacks in the league like Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson under mines them and it becomes hard to have patience with guys who may be slower to put it all together.  But its worth considering that it may be worth the wait.