Month: April 2015

Hidden Quarterback Gems? There Might Be Some for the Bears.

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East Carolina’s Shane Carden (above) is a puzzle to me. I get the impression talking to many fans that they like Carden because they think he’s an underdog – a small guy who could make the kind of story that can be a source of inspiration to the average guy. Former Bears director of scouting Greg Gabriel practically slots him into that category as he summarizes Carden’s chances in the NFL:

“Overall, I see Carden as a very good college player who lacks the top traits needed to be a starter at the NFL level. He is smart, instinctive, and a leader. He just lacks the necessary physical traits. He can become a very good backup who will win some games if needed. If he becomes a starter, he will be a guy you are looking to replace. He is a good third day selection.”

Fair enough. But there’s a problem when you look at the details of Gabriel’s evaluation:

  1. “Slightly undersized” at just under 6-2, 218.
  2. Average athlete with average speed. Plays faster on tape.
  3. Agile with quick feet.
  4. Excellent production in college.
  5. Some wind up but above average arm strength.
  6. Smart, good instincts, good decision maker.
  7. Top notch intangibles. Leader, top worker.

So what’s not to like? A 5 second 40 time? Good grief, since when do you have to be Michael Vick to throw from the pocket? And 6-2 doesn’t exactly make him Doug Flute.

Curious, I took a look at the video of the East Carolina – North Carolina game below.

This is a great tape to look at. Carden was under good pressure from the North Carolina defense. He wasn’t perfect, as you can see. But there’s a lot of good here. His arm is plenty strong enough and he throws a pretty deep ball.

Generally speaking, Carden didn’t panic under pressure. As Gabriel implies, he actually is a pretty good decision maker. He scans the field and frequently throws to his second or third receiver in a progression.  Even an interception early in the game was a ball thrown to an open man.  This is crucially important, as highlighted by the comments of former 49er coach Bill Walsh:

“The ability to read defenses is not something that players have learned to a high degree coming out of college. Even if they have, the pro defenses are very different. But most systems require quarterbacks to look at primary and secondary receivers, usually based on the defense that confronts him. You can see if he locates that secondary receiver — or maybe even an emergency outlet receiver — with ease or with a sense of urgency.

“This should work like a natural progression, not a situation where it’s — “Oh, my gosh, now I must look over here … no, over there.” You can see which quarterbacks handle these situations with grace. These are the types who have a chance to perform with consistency in the NFL.”

I think I see that here.

He was often reasonably accurate on some tough throws under pressure. There weren’t many anticipation throws but North Carolina defense covered the East Carolina receivers well and often forced Carden to throw into NFL-type, tight coverage – which he did reasonably well.

Carden feels the rush pretty well most of the time. Perhaps most impressive to me, he also moves well in the pocket to avoid it while keeping his eyes downfield.

On the downside, he does have a windup and his release isn’t as quick as I’d like. But the ball comes out reasonably quickly all things considered. He must have shortened his release quite a bit before the combine where I didn’t even notice it. He also occasionally stares down receivers.

The current quarterback class has been much maligned after some showings at the Senior Bowl that reportedly weren’t good. But I’m starting to think that there are some underrated jewels in this draft. Looking beyond more highly rated prospects like Bryce Petty and Brett Hundley, I see a lot to like in Carden and Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson.  I haven’t even gotten around to looking at Sean Mannion yet.  Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune sees the Bears’ quest for a quarterback as “almost the impossible dream”.  But the Bears might be in better shape to take a good quarterback in this draft than anyone knows.

On the Vanishing Fullback Position

Troy E. Renck at the Denver Post says that the Broncos are going old school under new head coach Gary Kubiac by bringing back the fullback:

“‘Everyone wants to be an innovator. No one thinks you can get a head coaching job if you are just turning around and handing the ball off. It’s not sexy. But when you need to run out the clock and get those tough first downs, some of those spread offenses can’t do it,’ [Broncos fullback Howard] Griffith said. ‘You have to be able to run. Some people consider it old school. It’s just football, and you need a fullback.'”

I think most teams agree.

The power running game is still healthy and ever-present in the NFL and it just makes sense to attempt to overload the point of attack with blockers. There’s no better way to position a man to do that than to line him up in the backfield where he can read the situation and provide help at the most effective point. Renck elaborates:

“Griffith found himself in an unusual position with the Broncos. He was an electric college running back at Illinois but embraced a selfless role. His vision as a runner helped him as a blocker for Davis. He anticipated how plays would develop, freeing him to pick up weakside defenders off the script.

“‘It’s funny, because I have run into O-line coaches, and they want to know what our calls were on the backside plays. There was never any calls made. We just knew from the defensive alignment where I would go,’ Griffith said. ‘It happened by accident in practice, and where I picked up the most dangerous guy on a play, and we just kind of took it from there.'”

The “disappearance” of the NFL fullback is overrated. It’s true that more than ever teams like to spread the defense out with an extra wide receiver or run more double tight end sets, which puts the big men in a better position to run a pass route. But 23 teams still used a fullback last year and of the teams like the Bears who are left and who don’t list one on their roster, almost all still have plays that call for one. They just line up a “tight end” in the backfield who they have designated to be the fullback on those plays. That would be Dante Rosario on the current Bears roster.

No matter what you call it, the fullback isn’t going anywhere. Except where the ball is.

Totally Inept… And Still Better?

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I’ve been as tough as anyone on the Browns.  And its well deserved because they really are the definition of dysfunctional. Pat McManamon at ESPN elaborates:

“From general manager Ray Farmer being suspended four games because of illegal in-game texting, to offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan leaving with two years left on his contract, to first-round pick and expected face-of-the-franchise quarterback Johnny Manziel finishing rehab, to former All-Pro receiver Josh Gordon facing another suspension for substance abuse, headlines have not been kind to the Browns. And that was all within the past few months.

“‘Let’s face it,’ [owner Jimmy Haslam] said, ‘it hasn’t been the smoothest start in the world.’

“Since the family bought the team for just more than $1 billion in October 2012, the Browns have been through three head coaches, three general managers, seven quarterbacks and (in two full seasons under Haslam) 21 losses in 32 games.”

And yet with all of that, Michael David Smith at profootballtalk.com had to admit this:

“[I]t’s hard to dispute that those moves made the franchise look like it didn’t know what it was doing.”

“On the other hand, the Browns really did take a step forward on the field last season. Granted, a 7-9 season isn’t ‘a step forward’ in most places, but in Cleveland it is. That was the Browns’ best record since 2007.”

How bad is it when a franchise can be about as inept as it gets – a total embarrassment for an entire city – and yet it’s still an improvement?

Better Lives Through Chemistry

Michael C. Wright at ESPN is asked about his thoughts on the Bears offseason moves. I find one aspect of his response to be interesting:

“What’s a little troubling for me is the fact the Bears have added 12 new players off other teams with the majority of them signing one-year deals. On one hand you worry about how all the new faces and personalities will mesh. But on the other, that concern is assuaged somewhat by the fact that everybody in that locker room, regardless of how long they’ve been Bears, is coming into something new under [Bears head coach John] Fox and [Bears general manager Ryan] Pace. So that situation could actually bolster chemistry and camaraderie between the players and all the new staffers.”

Team chemistry is one aspect of what Pace has done that I hadn’t considered much. And if there’s one thing that needed to change about this team, it was the chemistry. Last year’s team was soft as butter with one opposing assistant coach calling them “the biggest bunch of front-runners in the league”.

We all know that the Bears have purposely added natural leaders like veteran safety Antrel Rolle. But a lot of the chemistry remake was probably to some extent inadvertent as Pace and Fox were just trying to fill holes with stopgaps. Nevertheless the effect is probably going to be real. Bear fans have every reason to believe that this will be an entirely different team with an entirely different attitude, especially on defense where the turnover is greatest. In my mind, that can only be a good thing as there was no place to go but up.

Road to Front Office Relationship Success Filled with Potholes

Michael David Smith at profootballtalk.com is surprisingly definitive after highlighting former 49er Jeff Garcia‘s comments on the current state of the team:

“Garcia said the decision of [owner Jed] York and [general manager Trent] Baalke to fire Harbaugh reminds him of his own playing days, when York’s father and then-General Manager Terry Donahue decided to fire Steve Mariucci after a 10-6 season. That turned out to be a disaster, as the 49ers wouldn’t have a winning record for the next eight years — until they hired [Jim] Harbaugh.”

I can only agree.

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The capacity of team management to make a mess of a good thing all over the league amazes me. In this case, pride and control were undoubtedly the major factors. Harbaugh (left) and Baalke (right) are both the kind of men that simply refuse to compromise. It ruined their relationship and is well on its way to ruining the team.

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Though the differences were likely more fundamental you have to wonder whether former Broncos and now Bears head coach John Fox (left) and Broncos General Manager and Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway (right) didn’t do the same thing. The guess is that Fox wanted to return to his roots – a run oriented defensive team, while Elway wanted to remain the high-flying passing team that the Broncos became through 2/3 of last season until quarterback Peyton Manning got hurt. The parting was amicable but the effect may be the same – I think it’s unlikely that new head coach Gary Kubiac will be as good at it as Fox was nor do I believe that the loss of offensive coordinator Adam Gase will be without effect. Add in the loss of defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio to the Raiders as head coach and you’ve got the recipe for a serious decline.

ESPN
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The relationship between Fox and Bears general manager Ryan Pace (left) seems to be off to a good start. Philosophically they seem to share the same vision. That might what Elway and Fox started with but Fox likely subordinated his vision to Elway with the acquisition of Manning.  Baalke and Harbaugh probably got off to a good start, too.

Those who ignore history are destined to repeat it. The key to prosperity will be that both Fox and Pace be reasonable people (unlike Baalke and Harbaugh) who are both very good at what they do. That will engender respect and that will lead to continued willingness to compromise without loss of quality. They also need to stay in agreement philosophically through seasons of change. A dose of early success wouldn’t hurt.

That all seems like a lot to navigate over a course full of obstacles. But if the Pace and Fox do it, they’ll be set up for the kind of long-term success that has eluded some wonderful relationships that started so well and then went south to the ruin of all.

Bears-Bucs Philosophical Clash – Who Will Be More Competitive in 2015?

According to Michael David Smith at profootballtalk.com the Buccaneers have thrown away $50 million on defensive backs over the last couple years:

“Friday’s trade of safety Dashon Goldson became the third time the Bucs have cut bait on a secondary player who had been an enormous investment for the Buccaneers. The Bucs signed Goldson to a huge contract two years ago, only to trade him to Washington for the paltry compensation of swapping a seventh-round pick for a sixth-round in the 2016 draft.”

“The Bucs also traded their 2013 first-round pick and 2014 fourth-round pick to the Jets for Darrelle Revis, paid Revis $16 million, and got one season of work out of him. After spending last season with the Patriots, Revis is back with the Jets.

“And the Bucs used the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft on safety Mark Barron, who lasted two seasons in Tampa Bay before the Bucs traded him to St. Louis for a fourth-round pick and a sixth-round pick. The Bucs paid Barron more than $10 million before getting rid of him.”

Of course the problem is that when the Bucs hired head coach Lovie Smith (below), they switched to a cover-two scheme that doesn’t call for a large investment in cornerbacks like Revis. Safety is one of the most important positions on the field. Goldson and Barron didn’t fit the scheme because it calls for a special type of safety that can quickly read the situation and cover a lot of ground to get into the right spot.

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What’s interesting is that the Bears are also in a position where they invested a large amount of money into players like Jared Allen and Willie Young – 4-3 ends that were meant to rush the passer with their hands in the dirt. They spent a third round pick on Will Sutton, a three technique tackle that arguably doesn’t fit a 3-4 scheme either.

But there are two factors that make the Bears situation different. First, the Bears will spend up to 60% of their time in sub-packages which call for a four man line. Though frequently mentioned, this factor is largely underplayed in the media. A guy like Allen could come in handy rushing out of such a formation in passing situations if he bounces back from a miserable season last year. All of their signings over the last couple years could play in these packages and be of great value there.

That leads to the second point – the scheme is more versatile and can use players with different talents to advantage. Not only can the scheme accommodate, to an extent, linemen who can penetrate rather than strictly playing two gaps. That may leave room for guys like Sutton if they can adapt. And lets not forget the advantage of letting last years signee Lamarr Houston (below) roll back to the position of outside linebacker which he should be far more comfortable in than the role of 4-3 defensive end that the bears slotted him into last year.

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Both the problem and the advantage of having a defensive coach like Smith is that they stubbornly insist that it be their way or the highway on defense. That keeps things simple but it costs both time and money as players who don’t fit are replaced.

Smith got a year’s head start over Bears general manager Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox. And though the record was the worst in the league I thought they were surprisingly competitive last year in most of the games I saw. But you still have to wonder if the Bears won’t rebuild faster and be better off in the end by being more flexible.

The race is on. It will be fascinating to see which philosophy wins.

Cutler Trade Good for Almost Everybody. Almost. And Other Points of View.

Bears

  • Elliot Harrison at nfl.com constructs his all-under 25 team. Guess how many Bears are on it?
  • Rob Demovsky, Green Bay blogger at ESPN, thinks the Bears signing of Pernell McPhee was the worst NFC North free agent move to date. Ben Goessling in Minnesota thought it was the Eddie Royal signing. Michael Rothstein in Detroit thought it was Ray McDonald. Clearly the Bears are making a great impression around the division.
  • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune sets a fan who continues to make excuses for quarterback Jay Cutler straight as he answers your questions:

    “Will the Bears use more rollouts and bootlegs? It’s certainly a possibility. But the idea that the Bears didn’t do that under Marc Trestman, Mike Tice, Mike Martz and Ron Turner is flat out wrong. Everyone runs the boot game.”

    “To expect Cutler to change dramatically as a player with more bootlegs in the offensive scheme would be a miscalculation in my opinion. Look at how many offensive coaches he’s already worked with. Do you think every offensive coach the Bears have hired as been inept and incapable of coaching offensive football? The answer to that is no. Cutler is going to be who he’s been. If he can cut down on the number of turnovers, he has a chance to remain on the field.”

    I continue to be amazed by the number of fans who continue to make excuses for Cutler after six years of up and down play. Cutler was surrounded by about as much offensive talent as any quarterback in the NFL could reasonably expect to have. He had a head coach who believed in him at the beginning of the year and was as easy and as accommodating as any he’ll find to work with. He’ll never be any better than he was last year.

  • Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com likes Missouri defensive end/outside linebacker Shane Ray better than I do.
  • Arkush also sings the praises of Bears general manager Ryan Pace‘s free agency moves but wisely ends the article with the critical question: “Now, can Pace draft better than his predecessors?” Pace is using free agency to set up the draft but the draft is where you really have to execute.
  • I’m not entirely sure why Jeff Dickerson at ESPN thinks that Bears safety Brock Vereen doesn’t fit the “aggressive, hard-hitting mold that new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and secondary coach Ed Donatell are known to prefer in safeties”.
  • Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune gets a little more information about the blocking scheme that the Broncos ran on the offensive line last year from new center Will Montgomery. It sounds like a little bit of everything depending on the situation.

Elsewhere

One Final Thought

Chase Goodbread at nfl.com points out that the Bears trade for Cutler apparently benefited teams all over the league – seemingly everyone but the Bears.

Will Sutton Could Fit the 3-4

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers a good question from a reader:

“Q: I keep reading about Will Sutton… Is it possible the new coaches find a way to teach this young man or is it too hard to change a position at this level?”

“A: If the Bears were still in a 4-3 scheme, the hope would be he’d be preparing for a more impactful season. I don’t think he’s big enough to be lined up at nose tackle in a 3-4 and the Bears are ideally looking for a longer player at end. Sutton is listed at 6-foot, 315 pounds and was officially weighed at 303 pounds at the 2014 scouting combine. We’ll see what shakes out for Sutton when the Bears get on the field later this month. No one has ruled Sutton out at this point and I expect he will get a shot to fit in.”

There are similar questions about Dvid Bass and Cornelius Washington.

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The reader is right in that media seems to be dismissing Sutton (above) out of hand, in particular. It isn’t like you can’t be a penetrator and play line in a 3-4 anymore.  The scheme is more versatile nowadays. Sutton seems to have the size to play either nose guard or end (I suspect end).

We keep reading about how the new Bears coaches will be able to adapt to fit the players on defense. Sutton and the other potential pieces to the puzzle that the Bears have accumulated over the years as they’ve run the 4-3 will undoubtedly get his shot to fit in.

Sometimes It Isn’t Rocket Science

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Sometimes value and need meet to make for the almost perfect draft pick. That’s what I think happened to me in the “Next Fan Up” mock draft, an exercise performed by the same group I participated with last year.

The Situation

Last year I hated the Bears spot at 14. They needed defensive linemen and safties but none were worth the pick. I ended up taking the best available player, linebacker C.J. Mosley. Not a bad pick in retrospect.

This year with the Bears picking at seven things were totally different. With needs all over the field the odds that a player that could fill one was going to be the best available were high. Here’s what happened with the first six picks:

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The Guy

Before the draft I pegged four impact players in the top ten picks:  Leonard Williams, Jameis Winston,  Dante Fowler, and Danny Shelton.  Some may justifiably criticize me for not including Amari Cooper and Kevin White.  But Cooper may have already hit his peak and White is a one year wonder that relies too much on physical abilities that may not be dominant once he gets to the NFL for my taste.  Don’t get me wrong – I’d gladly take either one.  But I put them a tier below my top four.

To no one’s surprise, the first three of those four top players were gone.  That left Shelton as the best player on my board.  But I knew that few other draftnicks agreed with me.

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper didn’t put Shelton in his five safest picks in the draft because his ceiling is too low. I think Kiper is under estimating him. Shelton reminds me just a bit of Vince Wilfork and I believe he may turn out to be more than just a clogger in the middle.  He’s never going to be a penetrator but Shelton uses his power and quickness to leverage offensive linemen and collapse the middle of the pocket as a pass rusher.  Even if Kiper is right and Shelton only turns out to be a plug in the middle he’d be valuable as the center piece of any 3-4 defense.  He never gets blocked back off of the line of scrimmage despite almost always being double teamed and he’s uncanny in the way he regularly shed blocks to stop the run.  And you can’t stop anything if you can’t stop the run.

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The Attempt to Trade Down

There was little doubt that Shelton (above) was my guy.  The question was could I trade back and still have a reasonable chance to get him and, if so, how far?

Ordinarily I wouldn’t think twice about this unless I had multiple players that I liked with no definite winner heads and tails above everyone else.  But most mock drafts that had Shelton getting past the Bears had him falling to somewhere  in the middle of the round.  The first team behind me that I had with defensive tackle as a need was the Cleveland Browns at 12.  So I figured anywhere in front of them might be relatively safe and was willing to risk going down farther.  With the third oldest roster in the NFL last year and more holes than a golf course full of gophers, heaven knows the Bears need young players.  So I thought it was more important to get more chances in the annual draft lottery and to take the risk losing Shelton, even as someone who I thought was clearly the best available.

But I didn’t trade back.  Why?  Because it take two to tango and no one wanted the pick.  One of the things that’s evident this year is that everyone wants to trade back but almost no one wants to trade up.  At least not into the top ten, especially with Marcus Mariota gone after the second pick.  Only one trade in the mock draft actually took place in that area and that was between the Jets and the Giants, who wanted White.  The tail end of the first round may include more action depending on how highly the teams involved value the quarterbacks that are left and how much they want to over draft to get one.  Other than that, I can’t see it happening.  Most draft experts actually don’t think there are much more than 15 players with first round grades in the entire class.  And I can’t see too many teams trading up into the first round to get second round talent.

The Pick

In the end my choice was clear and I gladly took Shelton at number seven.  I think his talent matches the pick and fills a need.  Perhaps the Bears biggest need.  Last year I said that playing general manager isn’t easy.  But sometimes all you need to do is keep it simple.

Garza Replacement the First Step to Improving the Run Game?

Like many Bears fans, I was saddened to see center Roberto Garza released (via Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune). I can still remember meeting WSCR‘s Mike Mulligan briefly at the Chicago Bears convention downtown in 2005 when he asked me as a fan what I thought of the signing. I said, “The guys missing a ligament in his knee, right?” Mulligan threw his hands up and said, “I know! The guys got no ACL!”.

We should all be so lucky. ACL or not, Garza started 145 games over 10 seasons in Chicago.

We can only speculate as to why the Bears decided to replace Garza. My first thought was age but Will Montgomery, who at least for now replaces Garza in the starting lineup, isn’t exactly a spring chicken at 32. The Bears will evidently be drafting a center some time soon but they probably could have stuck with Garza for another year if all they wanted was a veteran to stand in for a year. Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com apparently agrees.

One thing that’s evident about the 2015 Bears is that if they’re going to carry out head coach John Fox‘s plan to run the ball, they’re going to have to do something about the offensive line. Former Bears head coach Marc Trestman was roasted for not running the ball enough but my strong suspicion is that it wasn’t that he didn’t want to run it. It’s that he didn’t think they could block it. How much of that had to do with Garza, I don’t know. To me, Garza always passed the eye test but there’s no denying the Bears has a lot of trouble moving guys out of the way and running up the middle to get tough yards. Statistically he had a mediocre player rating of -1.3 at profootballfocus.com but his pass blocking efficiency was well above average. That leads me to believe that his weakness in their eyes was run blocking.

It probably isn’t a coincidence that run blocking is Mongomery’s strength. Montgomery is also familiar with the blocking scheme the Bears will be using after playing to offensive coordinator Adam Gase and Bears head coach John Fox last year. At least some of that will likely be zone blocking, something that could improve the performance all along the line with this group, which shows more finesse and athleticism overall than power. I found Montgomery’s comments about it to be intriguing. Via Patrick Finley at the Chicago Sun-Times:

“They can run zone, man schemes, power schemes. I think they do gameplan-specific things as well. I don’t know if I’m the exact fit for this offense — I think I’m a fit for a lot of offenses. It is fun to play for these coaches.”

Diversity is nice but whatever they do, it had better fit their talent (or lack there of).

Debate about Garza aside, whatever else the Bears do this offseason, I hope they do more to improve the offensive line. Garza may or may not have been a weakness in the run game but to my eye both tackles definitely are. Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune appears to believe that former seventh round pick Charles Leno may have a shot somewhere along the line. If they’re going to take the game out of quarterback Jay Cutler‘s hands, they’re going to have give it to Matt Forte and the other runners. And they’re going to have to ride the backs of the boys up front.