Do Bears Players Too Often Fail in Position Changes? And Other Points of View.

Bears

  • Gabe Carimi and Chil Rachal are out, Jonathan Scott and Chris Spencer are in. I expect this won’t be the last we see of Carimi as I’m reasonably sure he’s being limited by a bad knee, whether the team wants to adimit it or not. When given the chance by Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times to blame his recovery from the dislocated knee last year Carimi didn’t say “No”.

As an aside, I can’t imagine how annoying it is to Carimi that the Tribune keeps using this picture of him for their articles.


  • Good question from fan, good answer from Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune. You decide the right of it:

“During Monday’s game, Jon Gruden mentioned how many of the Bears’ O-linemen were playing unfamiliar positions: J’Marcus Webb entered the league as a RT, Chilo Rachal only played on the right side prior to this season, Roberto Garza spent most of his career at RG, and Gabe Carimi played his entire college career at LT. But that doesn’t begin to cover the position changes forced on players by this coaching staff. Lance Louis, the only O-lineman currently playing his natural position, lost a year of development last season playing RT. Chris Spencer, who started for several years at center and was signed the day Olin Kreutz left, has only played guard for the Bears. Danieal Manning, now playing very well for Houston, was switched from safety to corner to safety to nickleback and finally back to safety before being let go as a free agent because he hadn’t developed the way the coaches thought he should. And these guys are still at it: no one outside Halas Hall believes Shea McClellan‘s best position is as a 4-3 DE, while Evan Rodriguez was touted on draft day as a pass-catching TE and is now a FB. Is it fair to say they have flat-out failed when it comes to changing players’ positions? Are the players starting to lose faith that the coaches can put them in a position to be successful? — Mark Early, Arlington, Va.

“I think you have to look at each case individually Mark. If a guard can’t switch from the left side to the right, how good is he? If you think Gabe Carimi has struggled at right tackle, you don’t want to see how he would be blocking on the left side. Roberto Garza has played no worse at center than he did at guard. Lance Louis played right tackle out of necessity last year. I think both rookies, McClellan and Rodriguez, have looked pretty promising at their positions. The one guy who was really hurt by position switching, in my opinion, was Danieal Manning.”

The only comment I really have is that Danieal Manning was hurt the most by his inability to play the position the Bears really needed him at: free safety. The rest of the excuses might have some validity but that’s the bottom line.

  • Kelvin Hayden brings a bit of a different attitude to the nickel back position as he discusses the pass that 49er wide receiver Kyle Williams burned him on. His comments to Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times invite comparisons to what former starter D.J. Moore might have said:

“‘It was just a play where one bad step will cost you, and it cost me,’ Hayden said. ‘It was just one bad play. Hopefully, I learn from it. I think I have.’

Hayden said he played well otherwise, but that was of little consolation.”

“Bears trainers were reportedly worried about the significant concussion suffered by Jay Cutler during Chicago’s loss to the Texans [two weeks ago], expressing fears that the traumatic brain injury might prevent the petulant quarterback from ever sulking again.”

Vikings

  • Runningback Adrian Peterson on his recovery from surgery after he tore his anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments. He appears to be better now than he was before the injury. Via Pompei:

“‘It really made me look at things differently,’ he said. ‘It really made me scratch harder, dig even deeper when I was working out and training to get back. This injury is like a blessing in disguise. It helped me push through (to) another level.’

“Peterson said he is like one of the Dragon Ball Z warriors who transforms to a ‘Super Saiyan’ when he needs to channel something extra.

“‘Some of them just fight regular, but then they come up against competition and go Super Saiyan,’ he said. ‘That’s what it is. I had to go Super Saiyan to get back.'”

  • Dan Wiederer and Chris Miller at the Minneapolis Star Tribune report that Percy Harvin missed practice. His presence or absence Sunday might make a crucial difference in the game.
  • Barry Wilner at the Associated Press breaks down the game. Bottom line for the Vikings: Run the ball, don’t turn it over (which they have a history of doing) and get pressure with the front four. We’ll see if they can execute it.

Elsewhere

  • Lions coach Jim Schwartz on invalidating an automatic review by throwing his own challenge flag, thus incurring an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Via Chris McCoskey at The Detroit News:

“‘I know the rule,’ Schwartz said. ‘You can’t challenge a turnover or a scoring play and I overreacted. He was obviously down on the field. I had the flag out of my pocket before he even scored the touchdown.

“‘I cost us a touchdown.'”

Kudos to Schwartz for taking responsibility. But it doesn’t change the fact that by losing his head, he cost his team not only because he gave the Texans a touchdown but because, as their leader, the team’s lack of discipline reflects directly on his own.

The personality of every team reflects the personality of it head coach.

  • Much as I like Rex Ryan I have to wonder about the way that team is playing right now. Like the Lions and the Eagles, it looks to me like there is a lot of wasted talent on the field and Ryan is being asked if he thinks he’ll be back next year with some justification. From Gary Myers at The New York Daily News:

“‘I do,’ he said when he was asked if he thought he would be back. ‘And I think our team will play a heck of a lot better and I don’t believe anybody will ask that question by the time the year is over. That is my personal opinion.’

“It’s a good thing Ryan has built up plenty of goodwill with Woody Johnson, because this performance against the hated Patriots was bad enough to get most coaches fired. The Jets showed no sense of urgency in what was a desperate attempt to make themselves relevant in December.”

“Mathematically, they are alive. Emotionally, there might not be much left of this team. But still no ‘Rex must go’ chants, which was the only good news of the night for Ryan.”

  • Give Carl some credit for this lock. But maybe not for his opinions on concussions:

One Final Thought

Dan McNeil at the Chicago Tribune and I see eye to eye on the importance of this game Sunday:

“The reality is Sunday’s date with the surprising 6-4 Vikings could wind up defining the season and, potentially, coach Lovie Smith’s long-term future with the Bears.”

I won’t say that they gave up but the team looked about as glad to get off the field in San Fransisco as I was to turn the TV off. They were broken.

Since that’s the case, this question to Pompei is probably on a lot of fans minds:

“If the Bears don’t end up making the playoffs this year, do you see Lovie Smith‘s job being in jeopardy? — Daniel Gutstein, Lincolnwood

“For the Bears not to make the playoffs, they probably would have to lose four of their remaining six games. They might have to lose five of six. That would be a significant collapse. And, assuming there weren’t extenuating circumstances that led to the collapse, I think that kind of late-season failure could put Smith’s job in jeopardy.”

Here’s the remaining schedule and how I see it playing out:

  • Vikings at Bears – win
  • Seahawks at Bears – loss
  • Bears at Vikings – loss
  • Green Bay at Bears – loss
  • Bears at Arizona – win
  • Bears at Lions – loss

This would put the Bears at 9-7 with a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Green Bay is the better team and the Bears aren’t going to beat anyone with that offensive line in those domes in Detroit and Minnesota. The Arizona game on the road is a close call but, in this case, its the Bears who are the better team.

How close are the other games? I honestly think it comes down more to where they are played rather than who the Bears are playing. The season is going to turn on this week’s game and the Seattle game afterwards. The Bears are better than the Vikings at home and need to take care of business. Seattle is probably the better team but, again, the Bears play better at home and the Seahawks aren’t as good on the road. Both are very close calls.

Bottomline, I think Smith’s chances are reasonably good to keep his job. But I’ve certainly been wrong before and its going to be a close thing unless they turn out to be better than I think they are.

Everything Rides on the Effectiveness of Alshon Jeffery and Other Points of View And Other Points of View

Bears

“It’s not like we were playing against the 31st-ranked defense or anything. It’s a tremendous football team on that side.”

True that. There’s no shame in losing to the Texans. They’re a good football team that played like a good football team. I thought the Bears generally played reasonably well. Yes, there were too many turnovers and that drives me crazy. But for once that’s not what lost the game. The Bears actually played better than expected in a lot of areas (eg. the offensive line).

When you are playing good competition, in this case better competition, you aren’t going to win them all.

“Despite solid protection, Campbell threw to his ‘check-down’ receiver too soon at times. For instance, when he threw to tight end Matt Spaeth for a one-yard loss late in the fourth quarter, [Brandon] Marshall had gotten open after a defender slipped.”

Question. Would you rather have Campbell checking down or having Cutler throw two or three interceptions inot coverage? Apparently Pompei had the same question in midn when he wrote this:

“On the final drive, when the Bears had nothing to lose, Campbell kept checking down. The situation justified risk taking, and it would have been better to go down with an interception than a series of short passes.”

I lean in Pompei’s direction on this. Still, its debatable. A completion underneath also gives a receiver a chance to make a play with his feet.

“Forte said offensive coordinator Mike Tice is still trying to figure out how to use his assorted weapons.

“‘Once we figure that out,’ Forte said, ‘I think we’ll be OK.'”

It’s Week 11, boys. If you haven’t figured it all out yet, you probably ain’t going to do it.

“There can be no bigger indictment of the Bears offense. The squib kicks looked like a national taunt, and the embarrassment might not stop until opponents get burned.”

“Altogether, the Bears offense started nine drives beyond their 35-yard line. Nine, do you hear me?”

“Here’s how those nine possessions ended: fumble, fumble, interception, field goal, interception, punt, field goal, missed field goal and downs. Drive home safely.”

  • I wasn’t really upset about the hit of Tim Dobbins on Jay Cutler until I read this quote from Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune :

“‘You want to try to aim for the hip, you get the legs, the body goes down with them,’ Dobbins said. ‘But with him, he was trying to deliver the ball so I really tried to hit him up high so I can mess up the throw as well.'”

Players are told repeatedly that they have to lower their target. Dobbins admitted knowing that. He admitted purposely aiming high instead.

He should have been suspended.

“Linebacker Brian Urlacher caught heat from some fans when he congratulated Houston Texans safety Danieal Manning after an interception.

“Urlacher wasn’t too thrilled that anyone would question him for doing that.

“‘That was a nice play. I could give a crap about what people think on the street,’ Urlacher said on ESPN radio. ‘Get mad at me all you want.

“‘He’s my friend. I wish he wouldn’t have caught it, but he did, so nice play to you.'”

Sometimes I really worry about people. This really goes beyond being friends. As Urlacher said, you don’t have to be happy about it but I don’t know why its such a bad thing for an athlete to show a little sportsmanship every once in a while.

Manning obviously believes he’s been vindicated. He hasn’t. The Bears had a plethora of strong safeties. He has the talent to play free safety and the Bears deperately needed him there. His lack of discipline wouldn’t allow him to deliver.

No matter how well he plays for the Texans, there’s no getting around the fact that he let the Bears down.

  • And kicker Robbie Gould opens his mouth once again and crap comes out. He had this ot say about the Soldier Field turf Sunday via Jahns:

“I have a year left on my contract. I hope to stay a Bear. And those will be situations that I’m going to take into [consideration]. I don’t know if I want to deal with that as I get older as a kicker.”

Want to cry about the turf? Fine. Join the club. Want to threaten to leave because of it and think everyone is going to run around in a panic and change the situation just because of you? See ya’ later, buddy.

“Brian Urlacher looked like he had a keg of beer on his back when he returned that interception (against Tennessee). The Bears might be the luckiest team I have ever seen on tape. There is a skill to popping the ball out, but only one guy is doing it. Is Charles Tillman‘s contract up? He is a machine. It’s amazing what he is doing this year. I’ve never seen it before.”

49ers

“It could get interesting when special-teams standout Blake Costanzo, who rarely goes a game without mixing it up with somebody on the other team, faces his former 49ers teammates Monday night. Costanzo, who leads the Bears with 10 special-teams tackles, was second on the 49ers last year with 17.”

  • “Nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga struggled, getting blocked twice by tight end Lance Kendricks. Kendricks flat-backed him the first time and then buckled him the second time on Steven Jackson’s second-quarter 7-yard touchdown run. Sopoaga also got moved out by center Rob Turner on another 5-yard run by Jackson. Maybe the 49ers are not as good against the run as last year because Sopoaga isn’t as stout.”
  • “When the Rams were running wild in the first quarter, inside linebackers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman were also getting blocked, particularly Willis.”
  • “[A] 19-yarder was the only pass [QB Alex] Smith threw that traveled more than 10 yards in the air.”
  • “Smith was blitzed six times. He was sacked once, forced to run once (which ended with the Jo-Lonn Dunbar hit) and he also completed 3 of 4 passes for 45 yards and a touchdown against the other blitzes.”

Elsewhere

Adrian Peterson erupted in the fourth quarter. He was the beneficiary of some fantastic blocking. His 61-yard touchdown may have been the best display of well-executed run blocking this season. RT Phil Loadholt did a great job blocking down on Ndamukong Suh; C John Sullivan landed a block cleanly at the second level on MLB Stephen Tulloch; and RG Brandon Fusco (who struggled with sustaining power throughout the game) did a great job in his short-area pull. Peterson is, by far, the game’s most explosive runner to and through the hole.”

“I think Andy Reid is done. I don’t know how he can even want to go forward with what he is dealing with right now. His offensive line is the worst in football, hands down, not even close. And he loved Juan Castillo. I don’t care what anyone says — I don’t think it was his decision to let him go. The move was dictated from above. I understand the reason for it, but Juan wasn’t the problem. It’s the quarterback’s turnovers in the red zone.”

“(Jacksonville QB Blaine Gabbert) does not like to get hit. He does not step up in the pocket. He throws with a wide base. You can watch a quarterback’s footwork and tell whether he is accurate or not. The good quarterbacks shift their weight like a pitcher. Gabbert throws flat-footed with a wide base — you can’t be accurate that way. The best thing he did this year was cut his hair, but he still plays (scared).”

One Final Thought

Jensen quotes head coach Lovie Smith on injured wide receiver Alshon Jeffery:

“Smith noted that rookie receiver Alshon Jeffery might return for the Monday night game against the San Francisco 49ers.

‘[He’s] making a lot of progress,’ Smith said. ‘I don’t know for sure on him, but we can use all guys now.'”

I’ll say it straight out. I’ve heard fans make excuse after excuse for this team’s failure to perform against good competition and that’s fine. Everyone has their opinion and they are welcome to it. It isn’t like I’ve never been wrong.

The team has its share of problems – every team in the NFL does. For instance, the offensive line play has improved almost every week but you can still expect problems on the road in places like Detroit and Minnesota. But I’m telling you now, the root of the offensive problem – the one that isn’t going away and is going to be there game after game – lies in the fact that they have only one receiver who can consistently get open against man coverage and that’s Brandon Marshall. If Alshon Jeffery comes back and can’t do it, the Bears are going nowhere in the playoffs – assuming they make the playoffs. And yes, I think it’s that serious. That’s a lot to put on the shoulders of a rookie. But that’s how I see it.

Gabe Carimi Is Not Quite Back Up to Snuff and Other Points of View

Bears

  • Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times quotes a scout on offensive tackle Gabe Carimi for the Bears Extra section:

“He just doesn’t look strong enough. Maybe part of that is the injury. He plays like he’s a 34-year-old.”

I would agree that Carimi hasn’t looked right and he’s been struggling. I don’t think its his strength so much as his quickness. He looks to me like he’s having a hard time keeping up with speed rushes to the outside. Like the scout, I suspect that the knee injury from last year hasn’t fully healed.

“Asked why quarterbacks no longer call their own plays, Tice said, ‘Because they don’t sit in meetings on Monday and Tuesday night and put the game plan in.’ But without hesitating, he added, ‘We did have some no-huddle [against Jacksonville] where we gave Jay some really, really good chances to do ‘either/or,’ and I thought he did a great job with the no-huddle. It was the most extensive that we had. It was another drive that stalled when we had something going, but we’re going to do more of that. We like him managing the no-huddle.’”

Using the no huddle does, of course, make sense. But other than that, expecting modern quarterbacks in the heat of battle to call plays with longer term planning and goals in mind is too much to ask. Most Bear fans will remember that former Bears offensive coordinator John Shoop couldn’t even do it just while standing on the side lines.

  • Potash does make a good point that the way the play calling is handled now leads to delays.

“The complicated nature of play-calling in the NFL that prevents Cutler from calling his own plays also causes its own problems. Offensive coordinator Mike Tice, a first-year play-caller, relays his call to quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, who gives the play to Cutler. If it gets there too late, it’s a problem. How many times have we seen an irritated Cutler walking back to the sideline after calling timeout because the play clock was running down?”

Passing plays through the quarterback coach made sense when Mike Martz was the coordinator because he spent his time in the booth. But with Tice on the sidelines, this makes less sense. My suggestion for cutting out the middle man would be cutting out Bates.

  • Potash can’t let go of the idea that Shea McClellin belongs at linebacker.
  • Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune suggests adjustments for the season after the bye. Here are a couple that I was in particular agreement with:

“I would not suggest that Brandon Marshall has been thrown to too frequently, because throwing to him has almost always been a good thing.

“But other Bears — [Devin] Hester, Earl Bennett and Matt Forte especially — are going to have to do more than they have as receivers at various points of the season.”

Good teams (like the Packers) are going to find ways to take Marshall away. That’s when the other guys have to get open against single coverage.

“Up until last week, the Bears relied heavily on Cover-2. They broke out a little bit against the Jaguars in an attempt to get eight men in the box.

“For their defense to be all it can be, it will have to be able to play more than Cover-2. It will have to be able to keep offenses off balance by blitzing, mixing in man-to-man, single high, quarters and man free.

“Whether the Bears can be more diverse will depend on how cornerbacks Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings and D.J. Moore and safeties Major Wright and Chris Conte hold up when given assignments that may be a bit out of their comfort zone.”

This is critical. Every team in the league knows the cover two beaters. Bear fans have seen them so often we dream them in our sleep. It works well against bad teams (or good teams playing badly) because they fail to execute. Against a good team on its game, though, its not going to fly. Not only do the Bears need to diversify their coverages in those situations but they have to do a good job of disguising them as well.

Lions

“The Lions, over their last 16 games (not counting pre-season, or exhibition, as it used to be called) are a 6-10 team. Is that an accurate predictor of this season? Can it be worse or will they get better?–Stephen, Windsor, Ontario

“I really expected them to be better, honestly. They have a great young quarterback and maybe the best receiver in football. Their defense should be awesome, certainly not 26th in points allowed. Certainly I didn’t see the rise of the Vikings, either, so that explains one loss – but to lose to the Titans, who are struggling, too?

“It’s not going to get any easier with the Eagles this week in Philadelphia and then the Bears in Chicago. And they still have both games against the Packers, who will be equally desperate, Houston and Atlanta. Unless the defense starts producing some turnovers – they have zero interceptions – I don’t see how things improve much against a very tough schedule.”

  • Of course the Lions beat the Eagles so that’s step one. Watching that game last weekend was a slow form of torture, especially in the first half. You would be hard pressed to find two sloppier teams. The Eagles were constantly bitten by negative plays and turnovers. The Lions consistently failed to take advantage as they were constantly killing themselves with penalties and undisciplined play. Both teams are an incredible waste of talent.
  • The lack of discipline on the part of the Lions was particularly evident along the defensive line. They got a lot of pressure on Michael Vick and they look like they are every bit as good as they were last year if not better. But they were rushing the passer like a blind dog in a meat house with many personal fouls and offsides penalties.
  • Having said that, beware the Lions in the fourth quarter. They woke up and starting moving the ball literally right when the quarter began as if they were just edging up to the starting line before that. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, who was inconsistent despite being under very little pressure all afternoon, suddenly woke up and started finding wide receiver Calvin Johnson underneath. The next week against the Bears could be very interesting, particularly if the Lions somehow manage to clean up their act for such an important divisional game.
  • Pompei, this time writing for The National Football Post writes about the “Wide 9” defensive philosophy where the defensive ends in a 4-3 sceme line up far to the outside. The Lions play it and the Vikings dabble in it.

“There are two primary benefits to the Wide 9. One is it makes it difficult for offenses to run outside. But the real reason teams use it is it gives the defensive ends excellent angles to get to the quarterback.

“‘It puts the fear of God into the offensive tackles if you have guys like Jason Babin, Jared Allen, Tamba Hali, Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young,” [Lions defensive coordinator Gunther] Cunningham told me. ‘All these guys were some of the top speed guys coming into the draft and when you align wide, the OTs have to double kick on pass protection to block the edge. The double kick went out a few years back and now everyone is straight line dropping in the pass, meaning the OTs are holding space to stop the three technique, so the DEs that are wide have a straight line to the 7 ½ yard spot for the QB’s five step drop.'”

“The knock on the Wide 9 is it can leave a defense vulnerable to the inside run. In order for the Wide 9 to work, a defense needs a solid Mike linebacker and a good strong safety, because those two players often are going to be responsible for the B, C and D gaps. That’s why the Lions went after Stephen Tulloch last year, and why the Eagles traded for DeMeco Ryans this year.”

Elsewhere

“Can the officiating and broadcast crews keep up with Patriots when they play their accelerated no-huddle offense? If defenses are instructed to obstruct offense players after the whistle, will the refs call penalties?–Rufus T. Woodrow, New England

A.
I’m sure the broadcast crews were struggling – there’s certainly no time to show replays – because I was struggling. I would look down to jot down a note about the previous play and I’d miss the next one. I can only imagine what the defenses must feel like. Good question about the defenses obstructing players to slow things down – I would guess the officials will keep a close eye on that. That’s not supposed to happen, but it certainly does. Also wonder, as the no-huddle spreads around the league, if you’ll see players faking injuries to stop the clock.”

“How would you list the N.F.L.’s top ten coaches?–Frankly32

“Do I really have to? This is a minefield. This is in no particular order, but here are a few: [Tom] Coughlin, [Bill] Belichick, both Harbaughs [John and Jim], [Mike] Tomlin, Sean Payton, Jeff Fisher, [Andy] Reid, Mike McCarthy, and then some mix of [Mike] Shanahan/Mike Smith/Gary Kubiak – Shanahan has had great success but that was a while ago and he hasn’t had a quarterback until now to be in the same league with Elway, and I want to see Atlanta and Houston make deep playoff runs before elevating Smith and/or Kubiak despite their recent regular-season success.”

I like Batista and she’s one of the reasons I read the Times. And she does say she doesn’t want to do it. But suggesting “some mix of Shanahan/Mike Smith/Gary Kubiak” over Lovie Smith?

One Final Thought

I realize that this is only high school football but it really is amazing.

Will the Bears Show More Zone Blitz with New Defensive End McClellin? And Other Points of View.

Bears

“‘Has he been charged with anything?’

“It’s rarely a good sign when the first question for the general manager after announcing a draft pick is about a felony assault charge.”

“They envision him as what [GM Phil] Emery called a ‘move tight end,’ a player who can line up in multiple positions, competently block defensive ends and stretch the field for the Bears’ offense.

“‘What that does to a defense is it forces them to stay in more of their base [defense] instead of bringing in a nickel or sub-package personnel and match up with a straight-seam tight end,’ Emery said. ‘We really believe that Evan provides that for us.’”

This almost certainly is a pick for Mike Tice.  Many Bear fans have bemoaned the loss of former TE Greg Olsen but have failed to realize that Olsen was a glorified WR.  Mike Tice would have never started a TE who couldn’t block any more than former OC Mike Martz would have.

“Say an offensive tackle was trying to reach to my outside,” Emery said. “He instantly has a feel for feeling that block, getting his body in the right leverage position and working off that block to the ball; taking as natural and as quick a path from blocker to ball as possible. Some people possess that at a high level. Some don’t. They get stuck on blocks.”

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune continues:

“If there is one area that stand out for me as an evaluator and our coaches and our scouts, we all came away from looking at him as having high-level football instincts,” Emery said. “This is a very natural football player. He plays with very low pad level. He finds the ball quickly through blocks, which is a skill in itself, he reads pressure well. He can feel where the ball is going. He has very natural ability to find the right path to the ball.”

  • Lovie Smith debunks the idea that McClellin will play linebacker but does note that they feel he can “drop into coverage”.  Perhaps we’ll see more zone blitz this year.  Smith also mentions that weight is “overrated” when it comes to players like McClellin in schemes like the one the Bears run.

“McClellin will keep the accountability level high at Halas Hall. Players like Quinton Coples or Bruce Irvin might have lowered it.”

‘‘I would say I have a great work ethic,’’ Jeffery said. ‘‘I mean, I’m fast. When I get to Chicago, hopefully you can see for yourself first-hand and the team as well. I’m just ready.’’

I think the fact that Jeffery defines “great work ethic” as being “fast” tells us all we need to know.

“Bears Insider (@bears_insider)
“4/27/12 7:11 PM
“New #Bears WR Alshon Jeffery bench pressed 225 pounds 18 times, which was one fewer than Shea McClellin.”

Note that Hardin worked out at East-West Shrine game as a corner and played an aggressive press style defense at Oregon.  This would make him similar in some respects to seventh round pick Isaiah Frey.  From Biggs:

“Downside: Late-round picks face an uphill battle, and the Bears have a host of veterans in the mix here. Still, this could be a blessing for Frey as they need to develop young players at the position. He needs to transition to playing zone defense as he played almost exclusively man in college.”

The guess here is that one reason the Bears liked Hardin was his ability to play man coverage and match up with tight ends and slot receivers when necessary.  Similarly, Frey maight have to learn to play zone but he’s already got man coverage skills, something whcih the indications are the Bears may covet more now than they did in the past.

Lovie Smith has played a lot more man coverage over the last year or two than he did before that.  Its possible that he was on board with these picks.  On the other hand, as Pompei notes, Phil Emery’s picks this year seem to be more scheme independent.  So if there’s a new head coach next year, he will find at least some personnel who aren’t strictly cover two zone-type players.

“Having lived and worked in Chicago the last 11 years, I know one thing: the media can be very tough.

What makes it hard for Phil Emery in conducting his first draft is that the local media didn’t trust previous GM Jerry Angelo and because of that there is a carryover effect to Emery. They want to believe but aren’t sure if they can.”

“The Bears announced Sunday that they agreed to terms with offensive tackle A.J. Greene of Auburn. Greene turned down an invitation to the NFL scouting combine in February and last month he showed up for his school’s pro day merely as an observer. Greene said he was preparing for a career in the music industry despite teammates and coaches urging him to give the NFL a try.

“‘Some people have criticized me for this, but most of those guys — all they understand is football,’ Greene told the Montgomery Advertiser at the pro day. ‘They can’t grasp the idea of not wanting a life in the NFL. A lot of kids grow up thinking the NFL is the ultimate dream. I just want to make music. I’m not going to pretend I want to play football when I really don’t.’

“Perhaps Greene had a change of heart.”

“‘Devin’s role has not changed,’ Emery said. ‘We see him as a guy that is going to help our receiving corps in a big way. I know that Coach Tice has done a lot of planning. We want to make sure that we have a special plan for Devin, we have the Devin Package, a package of plays as a receiver. You never know where he is going to line up and I don’t want to get too far ahead of that in terms of telling other people what we’re going to do with him.’”

Sounds exciting.  But I’ll be happy if they just line him up in the slot where he belongs every once in a while.

“Wide Receivers (11): Brandon Marshall, Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, Alshon Jeffery, Devin Thomas, Eric Weems, Johnny Knox, Dane Sanzenbacher, Terriun Crump, Brittan Golden, Chris Summers

The Bears will keep five or six wider receivers.  Marshall, Hester, Bennett and Jeffery are locks and Weems probably is, too.  That leaves  Thomas, Knox, and Sanzenbacher competing for the last slot.  That’s if they keep six.

This will be a position to keep an eye on in camp.

Potash also goes through the defensive linemen.  Right now they have 3 reliable DTs in Henry Melton, Stephen Paea, and Matt Toeaina.  They’re fools if they go into the season without at least one more.  The same goes for the linebacker position where they have no reliable personnel outside of starters Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and  Nick Roach.

  • Pompei answers your questions:

“The Bears have five games indoors this year, with three of the last four games on the road in domes (Vikings, Lions, and Cardinals). What is the Bears’ record indoors under Lovie Smith? Brian Helser, Thornville, Ohio”

“The Bears are 12-11 in domes since Smith became head coach in 2004.”

When you look back at last season you find that the Bears offensive line was particularly miserable in domes where you can’t hear the snap count.  That’s because those are the situations when you find out how much talent you really have.

All three of those dome teams above are in the NFC and two are in the Bears division.  Assuming nothing else significant  gets done about the offensive line, if the Bears aren’t 9-3 going into the last four games, they’ll have an up hill battle making the playoffs.

Elsewhere

“In many draft rooms, there wasn’t the same kind of enthusiasm over who was chose as there normally is. ‘There were a lot of reaches on the first two days,’ one personnel director said. ‘A lot of teams were not feeling comfortable with their picks, based on my conversations with other personnel people. It wasn’t’ a great year. There are a lot of guys with holes.’”

“In the same SiriusXM Radio interview in which Jenkins said teams who passed on him are ‘gonna pay,’ Jenkins addressed the immediate comparisons that were made between him and the last troubled defensive back drafted by Jeff Fisher, Adam “Pacman” Jones.

“Asked by Adam Schein if Fisher possibly was interested in Jenkins because of similarities to Pacman, Jenkins scoffed.

“‘I mean, no, because I never shot up a strip club or nothing like that,’ Jenkins said.

“This guy is gonna be great for business.”

“What is most interesting about the Packers’ draft is they chose four defensive players who some perceive as better fits for a four-man front than a three-man front. Could the Packers be considering a defensive conversion? Or at least a shift to more 4-3?”

“Defensive coordinator Dom Capers is known as a 3-4 guru, but he did preside over a four-man front with the Jaguars.”

“‘I had no discipline. I had all the talent in the world,’ he said. ‘You know, great body, great genes. But I had no work ethic and I had no discipline. The better you get, the harder you have to work. The better I got, the lazier I got.'”

  • The Sports Pickle asks “Which NFL 1st Round pick was the most puzzling?”  Here’s one answer:

Brandon Weeden to Cleveland — Miami or Arizona would have been a better fit for him, as those are places old people move.”

One Final Thought

Tony Perry and Sam Farmer, writing for the Tribune newspapers, relate this interesting anecdote of deceased linebacker Junior Seau:

“Leaving USC after an All-American junior season, the Chargers made Seau the No. 5 pick in the 1990 draft.

“But Seau did not feel immediately embraced by his teammates. He experienced an attitude shift in the seventh game of his rookie season when he successfully called a defensive huddle. His team was not victorious on that day, but, in a way, Seau was.

“’My dad called me and said, ‘Oh, sorry you didn’t win,’ Seau recalled years later in an interview with the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “I said, ‘Don’t worry, I won. They huddled for me.’ That is what I would call a turning point in my career.’”

Quick Comments: NFL Draft First Round

  1. Did the Vikings play the Browns?  Hard to tell. Tampa Bay may have been threatening to move into the pick.  Trent Richardson was considered to be the best prospect in the draft by some analysts.
  2. Why so many trades?  It’s likely because there’s a rookie wage scale. Teams are a lot more likely to trade picks if they know it won’t cost them an arm and a leg in addition to draft picks.
  3. I’m guessing that when Tampa Bay traded back to the seventh pick they thought that they were going to get Morris Claiborne. Then Jaguars took Justin Blackmon and the Rams were likely going to go to another need position.  The Cowboys probably foiled the plan when they traded up to jump ahead of the Bucs. Mark Barron is fine but there wouldn’t have been a thing wrong with Stephon Gilmore in that slot, either.
  4. The Eagles needed to trade ahead of the Rams at 14 because they would have grabbed Fletcher Cox in a heart beat. Nice work getting into the 12 spot by trading with Seattle.
  5. Bruce Irvin at 15, Seattle?  Really?
  6. I was sure the Bears were going to go with left tackle Riley Reiff when he got past St. Louis. Instead they went with the defensive end.
  7. I experienced some disquiet when I saw the Lions benefit from the Bears pass to take Reiff.
  8. Quinton Coples fell but not too far to the Jets at 16.  He’s going to be fascinating to watch.  If he becomes a higher effort guy, he could be one of the best players from this draft.
  9. The Patriots traded up twice in the first round?  Who saw that coming?  I can’t say it was a bad idea, though.  Chandler Jones at 21 and Dont’a Hightower at 25 were both great pickups for their defense.  I’m sure Houston would have nabbed Hightower at 26 and if not them, then Baltimore later in the round.  Jones was a fast riser who might not have lasted long, either.
  10. Shea McClellin does fit the Bears in a lot of ways. I thought the Bears might be scared off by the reported three concussions that McClellin sustained but perhaps they bought into McClellin’s denial that this was the case.
  11. McClellin is apparently a high motor, high effort guy who I think most Bear fans are going to like.  He has the reputation of being a tweener who many thought would be a better fit as a 3-4 linebacker.  Assuming he plays end with the Bears, he won’t see as many double teams with Julius Peppers on the other side.  He’ll probably need work against the run.
  12. Pro Football Weekly has McClellin rated as going at the top of the second round.
  13.  The Bears filled a need but was he the best player available?  I have my doubts.  There were a lot of high rated offensive linemen on the board that the Bears probably didn’t anticipate would be there.  They used their offseason to set up to take a defensive linemen only to see Riley Reiff, David DeCastro, and Cordy Glenn fall to them.  They recently signed guard Chico Rachal with the possible intention of moving Chris Williams back to tackle.  I’m wondering if they might have handled their offseason differently had they known DeCastro and Reiff would be there.

Some Phil Emery Guess Work and Other Points of View

Bears

  • Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune describes the kind of player the Bears need from this draft and one reason why new GM Phil Emery might be able to deliver him:

“But it is a young defender who can be a big piece of the team’s foundation, who is consistent from game to game and year to year and who almost always answers the bell. It is a playmaker who will be recognized as one of the best. It is an athlete who can transcend future scheme changes.”

“So how do the Bears go about finding players like [Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs]?

“Certainly, it isn’t easy. New general manager Phil Emery might have an idea though. He was on the Bears scouting staff in 2000 when Urlacher was drafted and in 2003 when Briggs was picked.”

  • From Rafael Vela at the Cowboys Nation blog we have a couple little blurbs about a players the Bears have been connected with:

“— The buzz meter on Bruce Irvin has gone still.  The character concerns probably put him in the 3rd or 4th rounds now.”

“— Quinton Coples may fall into the 20s.  The claim is that character concerns have teams uneasy.  One source wondered if a team or teams in the teens were trying to spook their neighbors into passing on Coples, but this rumor came up more than once.”

  • On a similar note, ESPN’s NFC North blogger, Kevin Seifert, wonders if Quinton Coples will fall to the Bears in the same way that Nick Fairley fell to the Lions last year.
  • And Pompei’s sources rate both Whitney Mercilus and Courtney Upshaw ahead of Coples.

“He is the top-ranked end by many analysts and one of the most gifted players at any position. However, he could fall on draft day because teams question his love of the game. Some believe he was trying not to get hurt in 2011. Coples is highly inconsistent. When he wants to, he can dominate, but he doesn’t want to very often.”

  • Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times weighs in on a player for the Bears that I havnen’t read much about, Nebraska DE Jared Crick.
  • Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times talks Whitney Mercilus with NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock:

”But I think that’s only real downside, is can he be stout enough at the point of attack down the road to justify being a first-round pick?”

“Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: Trading for wide receiver Brandon Marshall could pay off huge for the Bears, but general manager Phil Emery knows that two clubs already grew tired enough of Marshall’s antics to trade the Pro Bowl receiver during his prime. As such, don’t disregard the fact that Chicago head coach Lovie Smith and wide receivers coach Darryl Drake took Wright out to dinner the evening before his impressive Pro Day workout. They did the same with another potential first round receiver, Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill, prior to Pro Day.”

He has them passing on Coples as well as Cordy Glenn, who most analysts would say provides good value for this pick.

“Nick Perry, DE, Southern California: Even with the addition of receiver Brandon Marshall, the need at receiver still exists for Chicago, but it’s not nearly as great, giving the Bears some flexibility here. In order to maximize the abilities of Pro Bowler Julius Peppers (who recently turned 32), Chicago must add quality pass rushers around him to take some of the pressure off. Nick Perry led the Pac-12 in sacks last year (9.5) and had one of the best combine performances last week, recording top results in the bench press (35 reps), 40-yard dash (4.64), vertical jump (38.5) and broad jump (10’4). He isn’t the most physically imposing specimen, but Perry has NFL-level athleticism.”

Though this appears to be a definite possibility, most of the analysts I’ve read would consider this to be a bit of a reach, especially considering that the Bears would be passing on OT Riley Reiff.  Brugler apparently doesn’t think much of Reiff.  He has him rated lower than Jonathan Martin (who the Bears also pass on in this scenario).  Every other mock draft I’ve seen has Reiff going well before the Bears pick.

  • I thought this article about Emery’s immersion in the Patriot way from Jensen provided some insight:

“When the Patriots stacked their draft board, [Bill] Belichick often would get frustrated because the game had changed, emphasizing and de-emphasizing different positions. The third cornerback, for example, could play 60 percent of the defensive snaps in a game.

“‘So the third corner is a starter in today’s game,’ [Kansas City GM Scott] Pioli said. ‘We were talking about guys who were third corners and weren’t given high-enough grades.’”

“‘It’s not anything that’s genius. It’s just trying to look at today’s league and understanding matching value versus just saying, ‘He’s a starting running back.’ ’ ”

  • David Haugh at the Chicago Tribune and I are of one mind on at least one reason why former GM Jerry Angelo was fired:

“Nothing can damage a GM’s credibility on draft day more than a botched phone call, which Jerry Angelo learned the hard way. The league voided a trade with the Ravens because the Bears’ phone miscommunication caused the deal to be called in late.

“The resulting furor from the Ravens marked the beginning of the end for Angelo, who, aside from once selecting Michael Haynes in the first round, never experienced a bigger draft-day embarrassment.”

Some might say the beginning of the end for Angelo was the check box fiasco early in his tenure as GM.  Looking back on it, the botched phone call and the personal embarrassment it caused ownership may have been the end of the end.   Here’s hoping that Emery can do a better job of avoiding such management issues.

  • Adam Schefter at ESPN reports that Matt Forte “is not signing anything until he has a long-term deal”.  Via Josh Alper at profootballtalk.com.
  • Former NFL safety Matt Bowen, writing for the Chicago Tribune, thinks that the Forte contract stalemate is not a big deal.  I can only agree.  There was a time when I blasted Urlacher for not showing up to “voluntary” workouts in a contract dispute.  But Urlacher is a team leader who was actually under contract and was looking for extra money.  This is a totally different story.
  • Pompei answers this good question:

“Now that Mike Martz is gone, does that mean that Nathan Enderle is no longer in the Bears plan? Wasn’t he drafted because he fit Martz’ scheme? Dave Mestdagh, Medicine Hat, Alberta

“I would say the chances of Enderle making the team are not as good as they would have been had Martz been around. But that doesn’t mean he’s a goner. Mike Tice’s quarterback profile probably isn’t that much different than Martz’. If Enderle takes a step forward and performs well in camp, a good chance exists he will stick around. If he bombs or stagnates, he’s gone.

“I’m not entirely sure the profile is the same. Campbell?  I think Tice might like more athleticism.”

“Can you explain why the Bears refuse to give D.J. Moore a chance to play on the outside? It can’t be because of his height since he’s actually taller than Tim Jennings, the incumbent opposite Peanut. And I can’t imagine that Jennings is much faster than Moore, if at all. Plus, D.J. is a much bigger playmaker than Jennings, who drops many more potential interceptions than he holds on to. I’m afraid that Moore might leave when he becomes a free agent because Lovie [Smith] won’t let him spread his wings as a legit outside corner and not just a nickelback. Reggie Carolina, St. Paul, Minn.

“Good question. You can get by on the outside without ideal height, as Jennings does. You can get by on the outside without ideal speed, as Nathan Vasher did. But it’s difficult to get by on the outside without ideal height and ideal speed. A cornerback who is short and not particularly fast has no chance of matching up with a Calvin Johnson on the outside. That explains the Bears’ hesitation to try Moore outside. At the 2009 combine, Moore measured in at a shade below 5-9, and his best 40-yard dash time was a 4.56. Jennings, for comparison sake, measured in at a little below 5-8 at the 2006 combine, but he ran a 4.32 40-yard dash. Jennings is considerably faster. Moore, however, is exceptionally quick and athletic. And he’s exceptionally instinctive. He also has outstanding ball skills, which Jennings does not. All of that makes Moore uniquely qualified to play over the slot receiver. He was drafted for that role, and it’s probably what he always will do best.”

Elsewhere

  • One of the free agents I had an eye on for the Bears was DE Andre CarterMatt Williamson at ESPN tells us in a fan chat why he hasn’t been more popular.

“Joe (uk)
“where will andre carter play next season?

“Matt Williamson  (12:43 PM)
“His quad is still an issue apparently. He would be a great fit for the Bears. Has to go to a 4-3 team, but I was very impressed with Carter in NEng. Assuming he gets healthy quick, he will have a substantial market”

  • Vela explains why there may be plenty of defensive players available in the mid to late first round:

“Consider that three quarterbacks ([Andrew] Luck, [Robert] Griffin and [Ryan] Tannehill) could go in the top 10.  If Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon and [Michael] Floyd join them, that’s six skill position players.  Add two offensive tackles, say Matt Kalil to Minnesota and perhaps Riley Reiff to Buffalo and you have eight offensive players up top.  Only Morris Claiborne and another defender would go in the top 10. “

“One source said he’s heard that as many as six wide receivers could go in the 1st round.  If this happened, it would affect Dallas’ 2nd round pick, and perhaps push some defensive options into that early 2nd.

“One intriguing rumor has Brandon Weeden making the 1st, with the Dolphins selecting him if they trade down and out of the 8th slot.  A fourth 1st round QB would combine with a WR rush to push another defensive option to 45.”

  • It would appear that Vela isn’t the only one that heard that rumor.  From Pompei:

“Brandon Weeden is starting to look like a key player in the draft. A good chance now exists the QB is going to be selected in the later stages of the first round, and it seems likely teams will try to jockey for position to get Weeden. If the Browns don’t select Tannehill early, they could take him with the 22nd pick. Or another team could try to jump the Browns by moving up from the early second round. The Browns also could try to move down in the late 20s to take Weeden.”

“After getting a surprisingly effective boost from low-profile O-line additions Paul McQuistan and Breno Giacomini last season, we hear the Seahawks are hoping for the same from free-agent pickup Frank Omiyale, who had worn out his welcome with the Bears but has the versatility that Seahawks assistant head coach/offensive line Tom Cable savors. ‘Omiyale was in Atlanta’s system when Cable was there, and they think a fresh start might help him,’ said one team source. ‘They got him for a real good price, and (ORT) James Carpenter’s return from knee surgery is still a big question mark.’”

  • I think as highly of the Lions talent as anyone.  But if their fans really believe that they are going to go 15-1 then they are setting themselves up for some major disappointment.  From Tim Twentyman at detroitlions.com.
  • No players who fall under restricted free agency got offers from other teams.  The word “collusion” is being bandied about.  Personally, I think the problem is simply that price of signing these players is too high.  Its too cheap to sign them to higher grades of FA where more compensation is required and no one wants to both give up draft picks for these players and pay them to boot.  Via Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com.
  • Former Bears front office man Tim Ruskell takes Joe Fortenbaugh at The National Football Post through the anatomy of a draft day trade.
  • I thought this article on how GM’s run thier scouting departments from Jack Bechta at The National Football Post was fascinating:

“One of the biggest frustrations I hear from regional NFL scouts is how their opinion and their work gets minimized the closer we get to the draft. It’s not like this in every organization but it exists within several for sure.

“Area scouts spend months even years collecting data and intelligence on players in their region just to have it become under-appreciated in April. One NFC scout told me the other day that he ‘gets paid $85,000 to work and travel like a dog to get his opinion diluted by people with bigger titles and even bigger egos’. Another said, ‘I wrote 300 reports that will be referenced a few times and won’t get the attention they deserve’.”

“Instead of fine-tuning the draft boards in April, some scouting directors go through some last minute damage control. It usually comes when the head coach’s opinion varies greatly from the scouting staff. The HC may have watched just one game where he saw something that turned him off, or on about a player. And as Bill Parcells said to me once, ‘Sometimes it can just take one play to form an everlasting opinion, but coaches are more short term focused because of their desire to win now, emotional, and more influenced by what they’re eyes tell them.’ A former GM told me that it’s not uncommon to spend a few days on damage control because of a last minute opinion change by a Head Coach or even an owner.”

“Jason (Texas)
“Now that it’s been a few years, what do you think about the 3 day draft?

“Kevin Seifert  (2:52 PM)
“I agree with Ted Thompson. I wish the first two days weren’t at night. I get why they are, but I’m a morning person in this job and would prefer not to see a team making its first-round pick at 11 p.m. Other than that, I’m fine with it and kind of glad it ends on a Saturday instead of Sunday.”

Its a long time between January and July.  I miss the days when I could settle down in front of the TV for the draft and totally immerse myself in football for a weekend.

One Final Thought

Todd McShay at ESPN has updated his mock draft and he gives a number of different scenarios to choose from:

“Chicago BearsRecord: 8-8 | Top needs: LT, CB, DE, LB, TE, DT, G, Stephon Gilmore*, CB, South Carolina

“Scenario 1: Gilmore could be a top-15 pick, and while he’s still developing in terms of instincts he has the size, athleticism and speed to become a No. 1 corner. And a team that will face Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford four times a year has to be able to cover on the perimeter.
“Scenario 2: Upgrade at defensive end with Courtney Upshaw, who could add to the pass rush and bolster the run defense.
“Scenario 3: Address a need at left tackle with Ohio State’s Mike Adams or Stanford’s Jonathan Martin.
“Scenario 4: If Gilmore is off the board the Bears could choose to address their corner need with Alabama’s Dre Kirkpatrick or North Alabama’s Janoris Jenkins. There are character concerns with Jenkins, but he has more man-to-man cover skills than Kirkpatrick.”

Figuring out what kind of scenario the Bears will actually follow is always a challenge but praticularly this year with a new general manager.  Haugh thinks the Bears should go offensive tackle in the first round:

“The weakest position remains offensive line — which is why I would use the Bears’ first-round pick to select athletic left tackle Jonathan Martin out of Stanford.

“Martin protected quarterback Andrew Luck’s blind side in 37 starts over three seasons before turning pro after his junior year. He needs to add strength and offensive coordinator Mike Tice would relish coaching the finesse out of Martin, but he exemplifies the technically-sound, high-character prospect the Bears like.”

The problem with the offensive tackles that are likely to be available to the Bears is that they are all high on potential but low on consistency.  I don’t think this is the type of the player that GM Phil Emery is likely to look for.

If we look at the scenarios McShay describes and try to take a guess as to what direction Emery will go, we have to consider what he has said about how he will handle his job:

1.  He’s emphasized that players need to show up on tape.
2.  He’s said that the days where a player will be red shirted for a year while he develops are over.  Emery subscribes to the New England system where rookies are expected to compete to start from day one.
3.  He’s not afraid of players with off the field issues.

Taken together, I think we can safely guess that Emery is going to be looking for production in college above all else.  And he’s probably going to be wary of one year wonders and workout warriors who have the physical tools but haven’t put it all together (i.e. Coples).  That’s not to say he won’t take these players.  But on balance they aren’t ideal fits based upon what little we know about his way of evaluating personnel.

The kind of choice that Emery is likely to be facing is illustrated perfectly in this question to Pompei:

“There’s a good chance Courtney Upshaw still will be on the board for the Bears when they pick in the 19th spot. Wouldn’t he be a much better selection coming from the Alabama program than Illinois’ Whitney Mercilus, who seems to be a one-year wonder? Dale Dombrowski, Grants, N.M.

“Scouts I have spoken with are split as to whether Upshaw or Mercilus is the better prospect, but I believe Mercilus is rated more highly by most teams. It’s true Upshaw had more production in 2010 than Mercilus, but Mercilus had way more production in 2011. Last season Mercilus had 7.5 more sacks and seven more forced fumbles than Upshaw. In fact, Mercilus nearly had as many sacks in 2011 as Upshaw had in his entire career (16 to 16.5), and he had three more forced fumbles. He also worked out better than Upshaw (4.68 40 yard dash to 4.76), and he has better intangibles. The Alabama program might be better than the Illinois program, but Mercilus is a better prospect in my eyes.”

Its not a black and white issue.  Certainly by most reports, Mercilus is an immense talent.  And he did produce for one year.  Having said that, based upon what little we know about Emery, I’m guessing that he’s going to mildly disagree with Pompei here.  Mercilus took three years to get to the point where he was productive at Illinois.  On the other hand, Upshaw is exactly the kind of solid, productive player who can step right in that Emery is likely to value.

Its all guess work, of course, and unless Emery totally goes off the deep end few people are going to be disappointed any way he goes.  But for what its worth I’d look at the characteristics above when figuring which available player the Bears will take when their turn comes.

The Danger of Jumping to Conclusions and Other Points of View

Bears

  • Former Bears safety Doug Plank comments on the audio of a Gregg Williams pregame speech where he talked about targeting players for injury.  Via Fred Mitchell at the Chicago Tribune:

“’I can understand how that is pretty chilling to a person that has never been involved in a violent sport like football,’ Plank said. ‘It takes a lot to run into someone. I don’t think that’s natural human behavior. Most of it is mental conditioning. Not only the practices all during the week, but it’s also some of the dialogue that comes from your (coaches).

“’To play this game, you have to play with high emotion. … I like to feel I was one of those. You have to take yourself to some other mental state to do that on a regular basis. You have to ignore your survival instincts. Every time you run into someone, there is that fear factor. … You have to condition yourself.’”

“’We’re all players, and we’re all trying to accomplish the same thing to help our team win and make the fans happy. But at a certain point, there is an accountability factor.’”

  • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune has some good reasons to believe the offensive line will improve even with no changes:

“First, the sacks didn’t pile up last season until after [Jay] Cutler went out with the thumb injury in Week 10. He was sacked 23 times in 10 games, which put the Bears on pace for a manageable number of 37. Cutler was sacked only five times in his last five games.

“When Caleb Hanie entered, chaos ensued. He was sacked 19 times in four games before being benched, and Josh McCown was sacked seven times in the season finale against the Vikings in Minnesota.

“So, a healthy Cutler should trigger improvement. And when he left, [former offensive coordinator Mike] Martz took most plans for seven-step drops with him. The introduction of quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates to the system likely will bring some elements that helped Cutler be successful for the Broncos with rollouts and moving pockets. Those wrinkles also should help against pressure just as the addition of a top-flight receiver in Brandon Marshall should.”

“[Gabe] Carimi (knee) and left guard Chris Williams (wrist) are returning from injuries. That will allow Lance Louis, who spent nearly all of 2011 at right tackle, to move back to guard where he is a better fit.”

  • Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune reports that DT Amobi Okoye signed a contract with Tampa Bay.  That leaves the Bears definitively short of defensive tackles.  They’re likely looking to draft defensive line help.
  • John Mullin at CSNChicago.com believes that the Bears have turned CB from a position of weakness to a position of strength with the signing of Kelvin Hayden and Jonathan Wilhite.  I don’t know if I’d go that far.  Its still on my list of needs but it certainly is farther down the list now.
  • Speaking of the list of needs, my corresponds pretty well with Dan Pompei’s at the Chicago Tribune:  defensive end, defensive tackle, offensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback.
  • Pompei, this time writing fort The National Football Post, reports that DE Bruce Irvin out of West Virginia may creep into the first round of the draft.  The Bears have shown interest and head coach Lovie Smith attended his pro day.  But I’m guessing the Bears are interested in him in the second round, not the first.
  • Wes Bunting at The National Football Post has the Bears taking WR Stephen Hill in the first round:

“Hill is going to need to become a more consistent route runner. However, at 6-5 he showcases some natural short-area quickness to his game and knows how to go up and get the football vertically. He’s one of the draft’s elite size/speed combos at the receiver spot and his stock is on the rise.”

“Wide receiver—Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech. In the triple option offense, Hill’s primary role was to block. He had only 1,248 receiving yards in college. The routes he was asked to run were pretty much straight ahead or slants. Hill may be the most gifted wide receiver in the draft, but he needs to learn to run routes and get in and out of breaks.”

“Offensive lineman—Jonathan Martin, Stanford. He could have used another year in college to refine his techniques. One scout found him to be “raw” and “inconsistent” on tape, but said he wouldn’t be surprised if eventually he turned out to be the best tackle in the draft. Martin also needs to be stronger to thrive in the NFL.”

Elsewhere

  • Pompei also explains why QB Ryan Tannehill is climbing so high on draft boards.  Tannehill has tremendous physical talent at a position teams are desperate to fill.  But he only played 19 games at QB at Texas A&M and no one knows what kind of a feel for the game he has or whether his decision making will get better.

“Really, the best chance for Tannehill to succeed and reach his potential is for him to be chosen where he should be chosen, in the second round. He is a quarterback who needs to be developed. If he goes as high as it appears he will go, he will be faced with unreasonable expectations and pressure to produce too quickly.

“Ultimately, Tannehill’s meteoric rise probably will not work out well for the team that drafts him, or for Tannehill.”

“Some teams prescribe maximum heights for each position, and if a prospect is taller than the second tallest productive player in the NFL at that position, he is flagged. [Brock] Osweiler is flagged on those team’s boards. Other teams say a quarterback can’t be too tall. Most agree the ideal height for a quarterback is 6-5.”

“Still, Red flags can cause a player to slide, and parting ways with an agent three weeks before the draft always is a red flag, no matter who initiated the breakup.”

  • The Sports Pickle brings you your tweets of the week like this pearl of wisdom from Raiders linebacker Aaron Curry:

  • And on a related note, we have this photo of Lions Mikel Leshoure contemplating his latest run in with the law.

One Final Thought

ESPN‘s NFC North blogger Kevin Siefert addresses Morris Claiborne‘s score on the Wonderlic Test.  Claiborne’s scored a 4 out of 50, the lowest score in at lest 10 years according to ESPN‘s Adam Schefter.  Siefert makes the case that the score isn’t a big deal.

I was all ready to go off and make the case that Claiborne’s score should be a big deal.  A good agent can prepare a player for it with just a little effort now a days and I would have claimed that there was no excuse for scoring so low.  In fact, I had the comment written.  Then I read this from Pompei:

“Morris Claiborne’s reported Wonderlic score of 4 didn’t shed light on Claiborne’s intelligence as much as it shed light on his learning disability. Claiborne, according to NFL front office men who have done their homework, has trouble reading. At Louisiana State, the cornerback was given extra time for tests. The consensus is Claiborne has enough football smarts and instinct to play at a high level in the NFL for a long time. Cornerbacks don’t have to be Einsteins in the large majority of NFL schemes, and many are not. Claiborne’s coaches will have to make allowances for him, however. Claiborne can’t be expected to learn through a playbook, rather, he will learn best from walk throughs. The only issue is whether or not that will impact the other cornerbacks on his team. But multiple personnel men have said Claiborne is a great, unspoiled, engaging kid who they would like on their team.”

I guess I can’t blame myself for being ready to criticize Claiborne based upon what I knew.  But the lesson learned is that no matter what you think, you always have to keep you opinions moderate and leave room for alternative explanations.

Looking Towards a Defensive Draft and Other Ponts of View

Bears

“If Quinton Coples begins to fall in the draft, should Chicago trade up and select him? If so what would it take for the Bears to move up five to seven selections? — Scott Dennler, Columbus Junction, Iowa

“I wouldn’t move up for Coples, and I’m not even sure I would take him if he fell to me if I was picking 19th. He has top-of-the-draft talent, but Coples doesn’t always play like it. NFL scouts question his motor, his passion for the game and his coachability. I think he is going to drop in the draft. To move up five to seven picks in the first round probably would not be cheap, either. It depends on how badly the trading team wants to move and if there is competition, but I would say it would probably cost a third-round pick for such a move.”

This answer surprised me because I’ve read a lot of good things about Couples.  He’s currently at number nine in the Scouts Inc. Top 32 and number 13 on Mel Kiper’s Big Board at ESPN (though he’s slipping).  So my initial thought was that the Bears would be extremely happy to have him.  But obviously there’s a strong difference of opinion among scouts and where he goes could be one of the more interesting stories of the draft.

“Quick off the edge, Mercilus utilizes great anticipation and some natural gifts as a pass-rusher, with closing speed and long arms once he has the quarterback in sight. He’s coming off a brilliant final season for the Illini, and Rod Marinelli could do wonders with him. The Bears could use some pass-rushing insurance with Julius Peppers not getting any younger.”

He has them taking Randall in the second round.

  • And Los Angeles Times columnist Sam Farmer came out with his mock draft:

“Chicago: OG David DeCastro, Stanford — Andrew Luck says DeCastro plays angry, and that’s just the kind of player who can help Chicago’s line. This also could be a spot for a receiver.”

I think most scouts would agree that DeCastro would be good value at this pick and the Bears would consider themselves luck to have him.  They really need a tackle more than a guard but if they are going to be serious about drafting the best player available DeCastro’s probably their guy in this situation.

  • Steve Rosenbloom at the Chicago Tribune assesses the current state of the Bears:

“Anyway, [Brian] Urlacher’s point was that [GM Phil] Emery filled so many needs in free agency that the Bears don’t have to make the killer mistake of drafting for need, which leads to reaching for a player, which leads to bad evaluation, which leads to empty drafts, but enough about [former GM] Jerry Angelo.”

Its worth noting that Angelo worked this way, too. The problem is that, though he could often take the best player available, he couldn’t identify him.  That’s know as a problem in execution, not planning.

“I know it’s still early and J’Marcus Webb hasn’t given up a sack yet, but I see a lot of Bears momentum right now. The arrow is pointing up for a team coming off a death spiral. I don’t just see them as a playoff possibility, but I expect them to challenge Green Bay and the Packers’ sloppy defense atop the division.”

“No, Stevie Sunshine isn’t smoking anything. Fortunately, the Detroit Lions are.”

“Personally, suspension or not, it’s probably best I’m never in a room with Gregg Williams and wonder if such an order crosses the line of the aggressive, competitive spirit we all know and love about the sport; and leans closer to a criminal act and therefore a litigious matter.”


Elsewhere

  • The Chicago Tribune reports that the new Nike uniforms will have built-in foam padding in the knee, thigh and belt.  Many players remove such padding to increase their speed on the field.  Though the story describes the padding as being “adjustable” one wonders if these players aren’t going to be forced to keep those pads in now.
  • Though I believe the Saints deserved the punishment they got from the NFL over the “bounty scandal”, there is a part of me that figures that they aren’t the only guilty parties out there.  As a Bears fan, you just hope it isn’t everybody and, in particular, you hope it isn’t your team.  So it was nice to see ESPN’s NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert’s post which seeks to destroy the “happens all the time myth”.
  • From Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com we have this abject lesson for the Bears with their apparent recent change in philosophy regarding finding guys with “football character”:

“Three of the Lions’ five draft picks last year have been arrested for possessing marijuana since the season ended, and that’s bringing into renewed focus what many observers said about the Lions’ 2011 draft class at the time: Detroit brought in some talented players, but some questionable characters.”

“Today’s shining example of Wilbon repugnance began with a rant about the Redskins. There’s nothing wrong with going off about the Redskins, per se, but when Wilbon does it, it’s usually in the service of defending a player for the wrong reasons or because it’s a player Wilbon claims he’s friends with. In this case, it’s Donovan McNabb, who last week got all pissy in saying he wasn’t used properly by the team, a story that clashed with the reality that McNabb had nothing left by the time he arrived in D.C.’His blast was the same as mine; it was great,’ Wilbon said. ‘I called him and said ‘Good, I’m glad you had the guts to say it. I know you’re getting ripped. Good.’ I’ve said it on our show. The Redskins, if the next Joe Montana fell out of the sky, why would anybody look at them and give them the benefit of doubt that they could get it right?’  Their quarterback utilizing skills are JUNK. Did you know that Wilbon is friends with McNabb? Has it dawned on you since the last four dozen times that Wilbon mentioned it? Makes sense; you would have to be extremely close with McNabb to compare him as a faded 34-year-old to a Hall of Famer in his prime. If you can’t gameplan for bounce passes to a receiver, what can you do?”

One Final Thought

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune reports that the Bears appear to be unlikely to resign Amobi Okoye.

“The Bears missed adding a defensive end in free agency when Jeremy Mincey re-signed with the Jaguars. They were successful in bringing back starting end Israel Idonije but now they could be faced with trying to add a third end and finding a replacement for Okoye and nose tackle Anthony Adams, who was released. That’s work that likely will have to be done in the draft.”

Biggs conclusion would appear to be further supported Vaughn McClure’s report, also for the Chicago Tribune, of the signings of cornerbacks Kelvin Haden and Jonathan Wilhite.  Hayden is very experienced in the cover two defense from his days as a Colts.  Unfortunately he’s also been often injured.

These were low risk, on year signings that weren’t for much money.  But they were sorely needed.  The depth at CB was practically non-existent and now that they Bears have some insurance at the position, they can take the best players available.  As Biggs points out, the Bears obviously believe one or more of those players will likely be defensive linemen.  McClure also points out that the Bears do plan to add depth at safety so that’s a real possibility as well.

In any case, one look at the roster tells you that the Bears are looking to draft a fair number of defensive players this year.

Bears Shifts Philosophy Under Emery. And Other Points of View.

Bears

Rasheedah Watley has known Brandon Marshall since he was 12 and laughed when I asked her Wednesday if the Bears can change Marshall in ways the Broncos or Dolphins couldn’t.

“’It’s very foolish to think that,’ said Watley, Marshall’s high school sweetheart. ‘I don’t know how many chances you can give somebody. I’m really fearful for someone’s daughter or sister. The guy needs some real help.’’

“Watley has a pending civil suit against Marshall based on a history of alleged domestic violence.”

‘‘I have only had positive experiences with Brandon.  He is misunderstood. Once you get to know him, he will give you the shirt off his back.”

‘‘My thing is this: Get to know him, the man, before you pass judgment.’’

“In due time, the truth will be out, and we’re excited about that.  Given my history, I definitely understand the concern and the questions.”

Ya think?

Personally, Im assuming it was just the story from Marshall’s lawyer.  According to Dan Pompei, also at the Tribune, general manager Phil Emerydeclined to say whether he called the New York police, talked to bouncers at the club, hired a private investigator to look into the matter or simply relied on the word of a colleague looking to move a player.”  He also “would not say whether language was included in the deal to protect one of the draft picks if the player winds up with a long suspension this year.”

That sounds good until you realize that the Bears really never have rehabilitated a player.  They’re really better known for cutting guys like this.  I respected that.  Until now.

“Yeah, I’ll take that responsibility,” Cutler said. “Brandon will take that on as well. He knows what he’s done wrong in the past.  Any support I can give him, I’m there for him.”

“Emery got into an uncomfortable exchange with a reporter at one point when asked if the trade, the first big move of his tenure, could be seen as symbolic of his philosophy or simply a matter of timing.

“‘In terms of bringing in big productive playmakers, yes,’ Emery said. ‘In terms of bringing in people we feel are going to fit … our goal of winning a championship and someone (who) is mature and (has) shown … courage to improve as a person, yes.’”

Biggs also pointed to the change:

“Time and time again, the Bears did their best to shift the conversation to Brandon Marshall the football player, not the man off the field.

“[Emery said,] ‘Also, the performance on the field reveals the person’s football character in terms of his passion, his toughness, his competitiveness. We know Brandon’s one of the top players in the NFL, and that speaks volumes about his football character.’

Head coach Lovie Smith also seems to be on board:

‘“Every employee you hire, there’s some risk,’ Smith said. ‘But you weigh that, which we did. I looked at what we had in place here. Having Jeremy Bates here, being his position coach in Denver, helps a lot. Having him work with Jay and knowing that relationship, a relationship between a quarterback and a receiver … is very important. That helped a lot also. And we’re trying to win games.”

Finally, Potash also emphasized the new bottom line :

“A question about the risk of acquiring oft-troubled wide receiver Brandon Marshall elicited a nearly five-minute soliloquy from Bears general manager Phil Emery on all the factors that convinced him it was worth it to trade two third-round draft picks for a three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver with a litany of personal-conduct issues.”

“That’s all well and good. But it took coach Lovie Smith about 45 seconds of his own babble to cut to the heart of the matter when asked a similar question.

‘‘’We’re trying to win games,’ Smith said.”

So if Marshall spends his offseason beating women, its only a reflection of his ‘football character’.  Under the new regime, that’s what counts.

  • In fairness to Emery, based upon the calls to sports talk radio I’ve heard, this seems to be OK with a surprising number of fans, many of whom can’t see past the uniform.  But even those fans become quiet when you ask them this:  “How often will Marshall show that character if he’s suspended and not on the field?”
  • Assuming that Marshall does eventually find his way onto the field, the good news for those fans is that the Bears seem to have gotten a wide receiver who was superior to anyone else out there.  Biggs compares him to top free agent Vincent Jackson:

“Marshall, Emery pointed out, has the second most catches of any receiver in the NFL over the last five seasons, behind only the Patriots’ Wes Welker. What he didn’t say is Marshall has almost twice as many catches (474 to 242) as Jackson over that period.

“‘We really like who he is as a route runner,’ Emery said. ‘We like who he is in terms of his flexibility of alignment. Brandon can be an X, or he can be a Z or he can be an inside slot because he has that great combination of size. He’s 230 pounds. Length, he’s taller than 6 feet 4. And he has great route feet, you know, body control, hips, and he has great strength to move defenders out of the way to get position and make the catch.’”

“One executive who has studied both players said Jackson is faster and a little better with the ball in his hands. But Marshall competes for the ball better, is a superior blocker and a significantly better route runner.”

“In 2010, Marshall had a drop percentage of 8.5, which ranked 60th in the NFL that season. That means 59 receivers caught a higher percentage of the catchable passes thrown their way.

“In 2011, Marshall’s drop percentage was 6.9, ranking him No. 52 in the league.

“In this case, the percentage confirms what the raw numbers suggest. Marshall’s drops weren’t only a function of his high involvement in the Miami Dolphins offense. He missed more catchable passes than dozens of other NFL receivers.”

“As we discussed Thursday, it would be difficult to reconcile any suggestion that Marshall has turned a personal corner if the allegation from Sunday’s incident — that he punched a woman in the eye — is true. It would make Friday’s news conference performance a high-quality con job.”

Seiferts comments highlights the difference between words and deeds.  And history indicates that even Marshall’s words aren’t trustworthy.

In terms of the current incident, here’s what Marshall said (emphasis is mine):

“Monday night, he was involved peripherally in an incident at a New York club in which his wife was hit with a bottle during an altercation neither of them was part of, according to a statement from Marshall’s attorney, Harvey Steinberg.”

And here’s what the police reportedly say:

“New York City Police received a report Monday about the alleged assault outside the tony club Marquee in Manhattan at about 3:30 a.m. An argument between a group of men and Marshall that had begun inside spilled outside when Marshall allegedly hit her.”

So, basically, we have yet another lie from a player who has had plenty of practice doing it.  The next thing you know, we’ll hear that she slipped on a McDonalds wrapper and his fist hit her on the way down.

  • Many fans have pointed out that the victim might be simply trying to take Marshall for some money.  But the woman’s motivation is irrelevant.  What’s important is that the Bears just bought a receiver who is likely headed towards a suspension before he ever sees the field as a Bear.
  • Seifert compares the Marshall acquisition to that of a sports car.

“You’ve read the reviews, which include a long history of high performance and extensive maintenance. You’re hemming and hawing. You figure you’re a great driver, never had an accident, and feel relatively immune toward the chances the car will break down on you. The dealer offers one final test drive. As you careen around the final corner into the lot, laughing the whole way, the transmission drops to the ground.

“What do you do? Write it off as a random and unpredictable incident? Or do you connect it with the documented history of this model and head to the minivan dealer?”

“It wasn’t clear if Marshall intentionally struck [Christine] Myles or if he meant to hit one of her friends, according to the [New York Daily News] report.

“Only buying that if the other friend was a woman.”

“A strong sales pitch for defensive end Jeremy Mincey fell short. He was minutes away from joining the Bears Tuesday night when the Jaguars lured him back with a four-year contract.”

  • Seifert comments on the re-signing of Israel Idoinije:

“The question is whether the Bears intend for Idonije to resume his full-time role, or if their pursuit of Mincey (and possibly others) indicate they will continue searching for another starting option. The Bears don’t have much depth at the position, which is why they were forced to play Idonije — a longtime reserve/swing lineman — on 84.4 percent of their defensive spans last season. “

The signing of Idonije, along with Jennings and Steltz, is simply insurance.  The Bears are now working in free agency to make sure they don’t take a step back at any position of need.  They’ll now look to draft the best players available to compete at these positions to make themselves better knowing that if no one falls to them, they are covered.

“It does not sound as if the team is intent on finding a new starter for the offensive line, however.

“Smith indicated he was excited about Gabe Carimi and Chris Williams returning from injuries. ‘I like the look of our offensive line with the guys with have signed up right now,’ he said.”

Though I most certainly do not like the idea of J’Marcus Webb at left tackle again, I do recognize the Bears’ problem.  Teams usually don’t let good ones get away and there’s not much out there.  For instance, Seifert comments on what was probably the best left tackle realistically available:

“Veteran Marcus McNeill visited earlier this week, and his situation is a perfect example of how left tackles who are available often are damaged goods in some way. McNeill is a two-time Pro Bowler but has had two neck surgeries and suffers from spinal stenosis. It would have been hard to count on him for more than a year-by-year basis.”

Emery seems to have the right idea:

“Asked about adding a lineman, Emery said the Bears will always be searching for depth.  He said they could look at other free agent linemen, and the team will look “very hard” at offensive linemen in the draft.”

“Outside of [Peyton] Manning there are no “marquee” players left. On a short term deal though I think once he is healthy, and as he showed last season in New England, Andre Carter can really provide a boost to a defense. He’s not a long term option but if you’re a contender, running a 4-3 defense, with a hole at defensive end you can do far worse than to sign Carter on a one year deal. If I was theJacksonville Jaguars I’d take a look at him.”

You could say the same for the Bears, I think.

  • Biggs quotes Emery on new backup quarterback Jason Campbell:

“Arm strength is very important because of our weather and the teams we play.  That to me was a prerequisite moving forward.”

“Cutler joined coach Lovie Smith in raving about tight end Kellen Davis, who signed a two-year contract. ‘He can be one of the premier tight ends in the league if we use him correctly and he stays healthy and all the stars align,’ Cutler said. ‘He’s such a talented guy, so big, so strong, fast, catches the ball well. So we’ve got to design a package that sets him up for success.’”

Davis is probably an adequate tight end but he’s never going to be a star in the league.  He’s good for short passes of 10 yards or less or the occasional pass down the seam but don’t count on him to do much with the ball after the catch.

Elsewhere

  • Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com highlights the conflict of interest that results from players with competing interests are represented by the same agency, in this case Peyton Manning and Alex Smith:

“Both players are free agents, and the 49ers surely will want to keep Smith if the 49ers don’t land Manning.  In order to best represent Smith, his agent should be trying to persuade the 49ers to make a decision sooner rather than later.  In order to best represent Manning, his agent should be trying to persuade the 49ers to wait on Smith until Manning makes up his mind.”

“More specifically, the two teams are contemplating suing anyone and everyone connected to the sudden removal of $46 million in total cap space over the next two years, based on the contention that their treatment of the term ‘uncapped year’ too literally somehow created a competitive disadvantage.  Even though no rules or policies were violated.”

  • Sally Jenkins at the Washington Post explains:

“The word is that [Washington owner Dan] Snyder is beside himself, but he has only his uncontrollable self-interest to blame. What happened was this: Back in 2010, when the NFL entered hardball negotiations with the players union for a new labor contract, the owners warned each other not to use the situation to get a leg up. They were in an uncapped year, with no limit on player salaries, and entering a tense and emotionally fraught labor situation, and they asked each other not to abuse the circumstances.

“In essence they said, ‘Don’t try to set yourselves up to be in a better spot when this is over.’ Think of it like a yellow caution flag in a car race: The drivers agree to hold their places and not to accelerate until the track is clear.”

“Snyder is said to be lawyering up and alleging ‘collusion,’ but experts say a legal challenge will be tough. For one thing, colluding in this instance means improperly acting collectively to suppress salaries. But salaries weren’t suppressed. They were just moved around, manipulated by the Redskins for the purpose of evasion and gaining a future competitive advantage when the cap was reinstated. For another, the group that the NFL owners supposedly colluded against, the union, has signed off on the punishment.”

I’m sure the league got advise from their lawyers before they did this but I have to say that I’m not at all sure there’s no case here.  When owners “warn each other” it sure sounds like collusion and I’m not at all sure salaries weren’t suppressed.  Jenkins probably says that’s the case because the cap room the Redskins lost was distributed amongst the other teams in the league.  But had the owners not “spoken to each other,” who knows how many other franchises would have dumped cap the way the Redskins did.  And who knows how high the effective cap would have been this year had all of that extra cap been distributed amongst the other franchises.

In any case, to me “uncapped” means “uncapped” no matter what the owners whisper amongst themselves.  Anything less seems to be illegal to me.  Or at least it ought to be.

  • Seifert points out that the Packers need a center now that Scott Wells has left for the Rams.  Look for them to draft one early.  Wisconsin’s Peter Konz is a good possibility.
  • Pompei, this time writing for The National Football Post, digs out this interesting nugget:

“In fact, Bucs owner Joel Glazer was quoted as saying this in 2007. ‘Free agency can be almost like a drug. You look for that quick hit, that quick feel-good. I know teams that year in and year out are the Super Bowl champions of free agency, and amazingly enough it doesn’t seem to happen for them during the season. If you can resist the urge for about six weeks, you’re often better off.’”

The fact that the Bucs are eating up cap space by signing free agents like its going out of style this year doesn’t diminish the truth behind this quote.  The only proven way to consistently compete in the NFL is through the draft.

  • Free agent tackle Samson Satel’s timing rivals Brandon Marshall’s.  Via the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.
  • Sam Monson at Pro Football Focus has a few observations from the first week of free agency that I thought were interesting:

“The schematic balance in the NFL continues to shift.”

“This offseason cornerbacks are raking in big money, but the shift in value seems to have come at the cost of linebackers, who are once again experiencing a slow market. Last offseason several high profile and talented players saw a complete lack of interest and ended up signing on for cheap, short contracts in the hope that they could try again down the road. At the time some of this was put down to the chaotic and truncated nature of post-lockout free agency, but now it looks more like the league has begun to value smaller defensive backs who can play the pass over linebackers, many of whom are now rendered two-down players by the ever expanding passing game.”

“Some teams evidently don’t watch tape

The Vikings signed John Carlson to a healthy contract worth around $5m a season. It’s a five-year contract that can be dumped after two seasons, but regardless, the only way you could decide that is good value is if the last bit of John Carlson tape you watched featured a golden dome and Touchdown Jesus.”

“This is a move that seems speculative at best, blindfolded dart-throwing at worst.”

“Quarterback Dominos”

“The Manning sweepstakes is now only down to a couple, but the market for Matt Flynn, another potential answer to a team’s QB issues, is being hampered by the shadow of the Kevin Kolb deal last season. Flynn has shown huge ability in flashes, and teams have thrown big money at those players before, but his current options seem reluctant to pay him for performance that they can’t guarantee he’ll hit. The Cardinals sunk a lot of money into Kevin Kolb on similar potential, and after a stinking first season in the desert, they just had to bite the bullet and pay him another $7m bonus because they have no viable alternative. Nobody wants to repeat that same mistake with Matt Flynn, while the evidence of what it means if you guess wrongly staring them so plainly in the face.”

“Mario Williams: Signed with the Bills after other teams were unable to clear enough cap room to sign both him and his pectoral muscles”

One Final Thought

WSCR’s Steve Rosenbloom did an interesting interview of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s  Omar Kelly.  On whether Marshall’s treatment for borderline personality disorder will affect his on field performance: “He’s trying to kill ‘The Beast.’”

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Brandon Marshall Acquisition. And Other Points of View.

Bears

  • Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times points out some of the many positives about the Bears trade of two third round draft picks for wide receiver Brandon Marshall:

“The Bears were linked to Vincent Jackson, a two-time Pro Bowl selection. But Jackson is nearly two years older than Marshall, who turns 28 on March 23, and his price tag was much higher. Jackson signed a five-year contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that averages $11.1 million a year, nearly $2??million more than Marshall.”

“Marshall joins the Arizona Cardinals’ Larry Fitzgerald and the Atlanta Falcons’ Roddy White as the only receivers to top 1,000 receiving yards in each of the last five seasons. He holds the NFL record with 21 catches in a single game.”

“What Marshall can do, with size and explosiveness, is make big plays. He had 16 receptions of 25 yards or more last year, which was fourth most in the NFL according to Stats.”

“He was the star of stars at the last Pro Bowl and was awarded the most valuable player award for catching six passes for 174 yards and four touchdowns. He owns the NFL single-game record for catches with 21 against the Colts in 2009.”

“Marshall should make Cutler better quickly, according to one pro scout, because he will give him more margin for error.

“’Brandon is bigger than Devin Hester or Johnny Knox, so Cutler can throw it to an area and Marshall can go get it,’ he said. ‘That makes Cutler more accurate.’”

“If history is an indicator, Marshall will be high maintenance in the locker room and away from Halas Hall.”

“Marshall better get the football.

“If he does not, he can be disruptive. Marshall has a history of complaining and pouting if things don’t go his way.”

  • And Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune also makes a good point:

“Marshall, 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, is also known as a rugged blocker in the running game, something that will make him an ideal fit for new coordinator Mike Tice.”

  • At least I think we’ve seen the last of this anyway:

“Symbolically and otherwise, striking with the Marshall trade so soon after free agency began illustrated [general manager Phil] Emery understood the urgency of fixing the Bears’ offense before anything else.”

No matter what you think of the moves Emery made yesterday, one thing is certain.  He did act decisively and with urgency to fill some needs.  A good sign.  A better one will be if he turns out to have gotten the right guys.

  • Jensen also points out one major disadvantage to the trade for Marshall:  the fact that he eats up a lot of their available cap space.  The Bears had roughly $24 million in space before the Marshall signing and he will account for almost $10 million of that.  $14 million probably won’t allow them to sign a Mario Williams and take care of their draft picks and other free agents at the same time.  So Williams is probably not a possibility any more.
  • Pompei agrees that the Bears are likely out of the running for Williams. He suggests alther options such as re-signing Israel Idonije and/or making a run at Kamerion Wimbley if the Raiders cut him.  The Raiders need to either guaranteed $17.5 million by Sunday or let him walk.   They don’t currently have the cap space to do that.
  • Jensen also reports on the signing of back up quarterback Jason Campbell.  Campbell played well for the Raiders last year before being injured, going 4-2 as a starter.
  • Pompei also had this to say after the Campbell signing:

“Although veteran Josh McCown did some good things toward the end of last season, some in the organization view him as a No. 3 quarterback.”

I think your number 3 had better be a developmental guy.  An interesting question that will need ot be answered in the coming months is whether Nathan Enderle will be that guy or will it be someone else?

“’I always respected what he did and how he worked at his craft — and he’s not the biggest guy, he’s not the strongest guy,’ [49ers special teams coach Brad] Seely told the Associated Press this last season. ‘But he’s one of those guys that his whole is much better than the parts. What he brings on Sunday is really a unique situation for us in special teams in the sense that he’s really good at his job.’”

“’I’m happy. I’m satisfied,’ Jennings said. ‘I got it over and done with. I just wanted the Bears to show me love. I feel like I’ve put in a good amount of the work the last few years. I didn’t really want to test free agency out. I just wanted to be wanted. Free agency wasn’t an option.’”

“The move means the team no longer has cornerback as a major need, though the Bears still could use a corner.  It is likely the team will either draft a cornerback or sign a free agent who is not in high demand.”

“The Bears coaching staff would like to see him make more plays on the football.”

Yes, the Bears still need a corner.  Jennings is good insurance but they’d rather have someone better, I think.  After all is said and done, fans will recall that the Bears did bench Jennings at one point last year for allowing too many big plays.  His resigning is probably more an indication that they didn’t see anyone in free agency that they thought they could sign at the right price and they didn’t want to gamble on finding the right guy in the draft.

“What are the chances of the Bears signing a left tackle and a wide receiver in free agency and going heavy on defense in the draft to add some much needed youth on that side of the ball? — Steve Larsen; Sebring, Fla.

“I like the way you are thinking Steve. I wouldn’t get too excited about landing a left tackle in free agency though. The left tackle free agent class will be very, very thin — possibly non-existent. And the last we heard, the Bears are confident that J’Marcus Webb can improve enough to handle the position. But the idea of going with defense in the draft is a good one. The Bears defense doesn’t just need to add good players, it needs to add good, young players.”

I really don’t understand why the Bears are stuck on J’Marcus Webb as the left tackle of the future.  Virtually everyone else who has eyes can see that Webb doesn’t have what it takes to handle the position.  In a division full of excellent defensive linemen, they need a left tackle badly.

  • On a related note, Khaled Elsayed at Pro Football Focus tells us how much they love free agent Eric Winston, who was just released from the Houston Texans.  Winston is a right tackle but the Bears could be in the market if they’re willing to move either him or Gabe Carimi to the left.  Probably the best free agent lineman is still Jared Gaither, who is a true left tackle.  He is still a possibility.
  • On the other hand, we have this question to Pompei:

“Given how hard it is to get good, starting offensive tackles in free agency, should the Bears draft an OLT in the first round and use free agency to upgrade at WR and DE? If not, who will be the Bears swing tackle in 2012? — Paul Taylor; Chandler, Ariz.

“If a left tackle who is an excellent value is available at 19, I’d have no problem if the Bears selected him. I don’t suspect that will be the case, however. There probably are three offensive tackles worth taking that high — Matt Kalil of Southern Cal, Riley Reiff of Iowa and Jonathan Martin of Stanford. My hunch is all three will be off the board by the time the Bears pick, and better values will be available at other positions. The Bears’ swing tackle in 2012 very well could be Chris Williams, or, if Williams wins a starting offensive tackle job, the swing tackle could be Webb. Either way, at this point it looks like Williams is moving back to tackle.”

I note that Mel Kiper at ESPN has both Bobby Massie and Mike Adams ranked above Jonathan Martin in his position rankings.  Adams, at least, projects as a left tackle.  In fact, Kiper has him going to the Bears in his latest mock draft.  Adams posted disappointing numbers in the bench press at the combine.  But I’m guessing that how Adams performed on tape is what’s going to count with Emery.

Adams was an inconsistent performer but when he was on, he showed immense talent on the field.  He might be a guy to watch.

“Will the Bears draft an outside linebacker and start him or sign a free agent? Nick Roach is an average linebacker at best. — Tawone Miller, Chicago

“I think there is a good chance the starting linebackers in 2012 will be Roach, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. I don’t believe the Bears will actively try to replace Roach, though there is a chance they could draft a linebacker in the high rounds with the thought that he will be an eventual replacement for Urlacher or Briggs. If that player can be an immediate upgrade from Roach, he could start out as the strong side linebacker this year. The only other complicating factor in the linebacker scenario is Briggs’ unhappiness with his contract. There remains a chance Briggs could play elsewhere this season, but I think it’s a slim chance.”

Its been easy to ignore the linebacker position with Urlacher and Briggs as steady performers.  But I think everyone agrees that its high time the Bears paid some attention to it.

  • Head coach Lovie Smith had lunch with wide receiver Stephen Hill, a potential draft pick.  Hill impressed at the combine with his size and speed but isn’t known for having very good hands.  He sounds to me like a Raider but safe to say the Bears are interested.  Via Biggs.
  • On a related note, ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert points out that Smith was on hand to watch wide receiver Justin Blackmon workout.  As the Bears have absolutely no shot at drafting Blackmon, I can only assume there’s another Okalahoma State player on their radar.

Elsewhere

  • Probably the most disturbing aspect of the New Orleans Saints bounty program isn’t the involvement of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams.  Its the involvement of a somewhat shady character named Michael Ornstein, who is profiled by the web site Dead Spin here.   Ornstein is a close friend and confidant of Sean Payton.

“Ornstein on at least four occasions pledged his own money to the Saints’ defense’s bounty fund. In 2009, $10,000 toward knocking an opposing quarterback out of the game. In 2011, two separate contributions to targeting the quarterback. And on at least one other occasion, Ornstein pledged his money in an email to Payton, which spelled out the details of the bounty program.

“The NFL knows this because it has that email, a highly incriminating paper trail that makes it impossible for Payton to argue his innocence, or for the Saints to claim the bounty never left the locker room. It might be the single most damaging piece of evidence, based solely on Ornstein’s history.”

“As you assuredly know, the Vikings were on track to have the NFL’s second-worst record before they defeated the Redskins 33-26 in Week 16. (Tailback Adrian Peterson also suffered a major knee injury in that game, an unrelated but no less serious event.) After Friday night’s trade, we now know the difference between winning and losing that game was two future first-round picks and a second-rounder.”

“What were people saying at the beginning of last season? With no OTAs or much time for installation — the veteran teams that kept it simple and relied on one playbook instead of three would be the ones left standing. There were a lot of other reasons for it, too — don’t get me wrong. But I think there is a lot of truth to it for the last four coaches that were standing.”

“Yet according to sources, Tebow paid Broncos defensive players Von Miller, Brian Dawkins and Elvis Dumervil more than $50,000 each over the course of the season for helping opposing players back to their feet after tackling them.”

Where does it all end?!

  • And finally, The Onion scoops everyone with this headline:  “Wes Welker Signs 2-Foot Extension With Patriots”.

One Final Thought

Apparently Biggs had the same thought a lot of us did when he heard about the Brandon Marshall trade:

“But it’s more than curious the Dolphins would let go of the 27-year-old Marshall for so little, especially since the offense new coach Joe Philbin is installing relies on wide receivers more than any in the league. Also, the Redskins went all-out for wide receivers in free agency and Marshall’s former coach Mike Shanahan didn’t deal for him.”

Of course, there are the usual concerns that we all knew about, a list of transgressions, arrests and general troubles that is about a “mile high”.

“Marshall has had issues off the field. In school at Central Florida, he was charged with assault on a law enforcement officer. He pleaded a DUI arrest in Colorado down to driving while impaired.

“The Rocky Mountain News reported sheriff’s deputies were called to Marshall’s home 11 times in a 21/2-year span. In 2008, he put his arm through a television set, a story he originally explained by saying he slipped on a McDonald’s wrapper. In March 2009, he was charged with disorderly conduct following a disagreement with his fiancee, now wife, in Atlanta.”

And lets not forget this one:

“Last April, Marshall’s wife, Michi Nogami-Marshall, was arrested after allegedly stabbing Marshall.”

All of this was explained away as Marshall said after the April incident that he was diagnosed with borderline personality disorder, a mental illness that leads those who suffer from it to struggle with relationships, mood control and emotions.

So he’s been troubled and he has a history of mental illness which he now has under control right?  So what’s with the low price tag?  Suddenly, late last night, the reason was revealed:

“Monday night, [Marshall] was involved peripherally in an incident at a New York club in which his wife was hit with a bottle during an altercation neither of them was part of, according to a statement from Marshall’s attorney, Harvey Steinberg. He said Marshall took his wife to a hospital where she was treated for ‘serious injuries’ and Marshall hopes to ‘assist authorities’ regarding the matter.”

Of course, given that he initially claimed that he “slipped on a McDonald’s wrapper” in the 2008 incident above, you knew this wasn’t going to be the end of the story:

“The New York Post, however, reported the episode took place around 4 a.m. Sunday and that Christin Myles filed a police report saying that during the fracas Marshall hit her in the left eye, blackening it.”

For those of you who think all of this is irrelevant and that all that counts is what he does on the field, think again.  Given the laundry list of troubles above, I think you can count on at least a four game suspension is any part of that New York Post story turns out to be true.  Indeed, Florio also makes this relevant point:

“The question then becomes, if the Dolphins knew, did the Bears?  And will the Bears care?  There could be some rule or bylaw somewhere allowing the Bears to bail on this one if the Dolphins were aware of pertinent information and failed to share it.”

I think a lot of Bear fans would also like to know if their new general manager hasn’t already blown his first major acquisition by not investigating the situation throughly enough.

Regardless, whether the Bears knew about the incident or not, I don’t think the Bears are going to bail on the trade.  Besides the fact that they are unlikely to admit that they didn’t do their due diligence, they need Marshall too badly.  And that highlights the real problem.

This is what happens when a franchise is mismanaged the way the Bears have been over the last five or six years.  It all comes down to the draft.  Without players in the system, you are left to try to make up the talent difference through other means.  That means picking through other teams trash in free agency or, as in this case, actually paying for it.   That was the case in 2009 when they traded for Jay Cutler because they couldn’t draft a quarterback and its the case now.

What’s worse, because the Bears have decided to compete now rather than playing for the future, they paid for Miami’s trash in draft picks.  And that’s really why this trade is disturbing.  Just like the situation three years ago with Cutler, the Bears now have fewer options in the draft to solve the real issue.  Which means they’ll probably have to dip into trades and free agency even more in the future to make up the difference.  Its a spiral of death that any Washington Redskin fan can appreciate.

The Brandon Marshall trade highlights how desperate the Bears long-term situation really is.  And it also highlights the short-sighted direction they have decided to take in order to solve the problem.  Given that they are trading draft picks to maintain competitiveness and that even the ones they have will take years to accumulate and develop, we won’t probably see things get better for a long time.