The Reality of the Bears Situation

Posted on December 2, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune reviews the problems that the Bears have to overcome in order to continue to win football games.

“Jay Cutler’s turnover-free night? Well, Quentin Rollins dropped a shoulda-been interception in the first quarter. And Cutler had to make a desperate hustle recovery to avoid disaster on a fumbled fourth-quarter snap.

“That spirited defensive effort? The Bears still are getting pushed around up front and proving way too vulnerable against the run.

“This list could go on for awhile. And it’s why the Bears can’t take their newfound position as favorites against the 49ers and Redskins as a sign that they can exhale. They still have a razor-thin margin for error and haven’t enjoyed a three-game winning streak since September 2013.”

He’s got a good point. In talking to Bears fans around town and around the Internet, there’s considerable optimism about how this team is going to finish the year. What I’m hearing a lot is, “With that schedule? They’re going to the playoffs.” Much though I like what I see, I think fans are setting themselves for disappointment.

Looking ahead, I see San Fransisco, Washington, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Detroit. Are those winnable games? You bet. But I feel compelled to point out that those teams are saying the same thing about their game against the 5-6 Bears. And with the exception of the Vikings, all of them are on the upswing, just as the Bears are. And the Vikings were pretty good to begin with.

San Fransisco just limited the Cardinals, possibly the best team in the NFC, to 19 points. Tampa Bay has won three of their last five and is in contention for a playoff spot. Washington has also won three of five and are the favorites to win their division. The Lions just beat the Packers three weeks ago in Lambeau, matching what the Bears just did, and they absolutely destroyed the Eagles on Thanksgiving. And both the Vikings and the Lions beat the Bears earlier in the year.

Could the Bears finish strong and be in contention for the playoffs? No doubt. But much more likely fans will be sitting at the end of the year and be happy that the Bears gradually improved over the course of the season with a bright future ahead of them. But only if they stay grounded in reality.

Posted in Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins | Leave a comment

To Re-Sign or Not to Re-Sign? That is the Question.

Posted on December 2, 2015 by Tom Shannon


Mike Mulligan at the Chicago Tribune speculates about Alshon Jeffery‘s future with the team:

“Franchise tags won’t be set until the 2016 salary cap is set in March, but Corry, writing for CBSSports.com, recently predicted it will grow about 7.5 percent to $154 million. With big-money deals for Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas added to increases for Julio Jones and A.J. Green and Calvin Johnson‘s top-dollar deal, the franchise number for a wide receiver is projected to jump from $12.8 million to just over $14.5 million.

“The number will be the richest at any NFL position other than quarterback (projected $19.75 million) and defensive end ($15.5 million).

“Is Jeffery worth that kind of money? “

Aishon_jeffreyYes, he probably is.

The real problem with Jeffery is that he’s been injured so often this season. Worse, he’s been out with exactly the kind of soft tissue injury that head coach John Fox mentioned as the major issue with Jeffery after he was hired in the off-season.

But the truth is that franchising Jeffery for a year minimizes the risk. Sure, the Bears will try to sign him at their price, which will take the injury risk into account. But even if Jeffery refuses and decides to try to prove to the Bears that he can, indeed, remain healthy, its only a one year contract with a rebuilding team that will have plenty of cap room to absorb the hit. Over the next off-season, I would expect the Bears to talk a lot to Jeffery about how to manage these injuries. If he responds, he’s going to see his pay day with the Bears. If he doesn’t, he’ll see it elsewhere. But probably not until 2017.

The real problem that the Bears will face in the off-season isn’t what to do with Jeffery. Its what to do with cornerback Tracy Porter. Porter has been healthy this year but has a brutal history of injuries as documented by Dan Wiederer, also at the Chicago Tribune:

“Through the summer, the biggest thing Porter seemed to have a knack for was getting hurt and bouncing around. When he signed with the Bears on June 8, shortly after being released by the Redskins, Porter joined his fifth team in five seasons.

“His resume came loaded with red flags, most notably the durability concerns of a player who had missed 23 games the previous three years.

“A mysterious seizure episode in Denver had been a culprit in the 10 games he missed in 2012. Last season, hamstring and shoulder injuries sidelined Porter for 13 games with the Redskins.

“Then, on Aug. 11, in the third week of Bears training camp, Porter tweaked a hamstring. He doesn’t remember how.”

Porter is a problem. He’s currently the Bears’ best corner but he’s 29 years old and, though he probably has some good years left, that’s not young for a cornerback. Will this be the year he breaks out and never looks back? Or will this be the exception to the rule, one of the few where he remained healthy? It’s a critical question because if he continues to play the way he has, he could demand a reasonably large amount of money on the open market.

What you do with Porter, of course, depends on the situation. If he’s healthy the rest of the year and he’s willing to be reasonable, maybe you give him a two year contract with most or all of the guaranteed money in the first year and see how it goes. If he’s going to require top dollar, though, you have to let him go. There’s little reason to roll the dice on a player in Porter’s situation when you are still at least a couple years from making a deep playoff run. Whether they sign Porter or not, the Bears will undoubtedly continue to look for younger cornerbacks in the draft. And that, not taking risks on free agents like Porter, has to be their primary focus.

Posted in Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos | Leave a comment

The Bill Always Comes Due

Posted on November 28, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Kevin Patra at nfl.com on the bad day that Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant had against Panthers cornerback Josh Norman:

“Norman was clearly in Bryant’s head early. When Panthers safety Kurt Coleman picked off [Dallas quarterback Tony] Romo on the first drive of the game, Bryant and Norman stood behind the play yapping when it appeared the Cowboys receiver could have had a chance to stop a touchdown, if he made an effort.”

Wide receivers are, as a group, not known for being level headed. But, as with most things Cowboy, this goes a bit beyond the norm. Add owner and general manager Jerry Jones‘s continued defense of remorseless animal Greg Hardy‘s behaviour towards even his own coaches and Dallas is eccentric to the point where they lack both discipline and character. That lack kept them from overcoming the loss of Romo at quarterback as they lost seven games in a row without him.  And that lack played a big part in killing their slim playoff hopes on Thursday.

You can make a deal with the devil.  But the bill always comes due.

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Apparently Allowing Only 13 Points Against the Packers In Lambeau Isn’t Good Enough

Posted on November 28, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times cites the “statistics” on the Bears defensive effort.

“According to Pro Football Focus, the Bears’ composite defensive rating against the Packers on Thursday night was minus-18.8. It was minus-3.2 in Week 1, when [Aaron] Rodgers had a 140.5 passer rating and threw three touchdown passes in a 31-23 victory.”

Do I really need to comment?

Posted in Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers | 1 Comment

Fales Starting Quarterback in Waiting?

Posted on November 28, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune documents the process by which Bears quarterback David Fales because the primary back up behind starting quarterback Jay Cutler. Fales got offers to join the rosters of both the 49ers and the Ravens before choosing to remain with the Bears after they agreed to promote him from the practice squad to the roster.

“‘Yeah, but it’s all about being in the right system,’ Fales said. ‘Eventually you are going to get an opportunity and no one knows when that will come. It doesn’t matter if you are not in the right spot.'”

San Fransisco is starting Blaine Gabbert, whose long-term future as the starter is questionable. Former starter Colin Kaepernick had shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum and his future with the organization is in serious doubt. The Ravens were probably following up on the recommendation of former Bears head coach Marc Trestman, now their offensive coordinator. Starting quarterback Joe Flacco is out for the season after suffering a serious knee injury November 22.

Both of these teams were searching for someone to be a back up after starters became unavailable. But Fale’s popularity around the league, which is why the Bears had to add him to the roster, makes me wonder if he doesn’t have the potential to be a starter. When former Bears general manager Phil Emery drafted him, Emery said it was with the idea that that Fales had the potential to be a solid back up, thus setting the ceiling for him. But does anyone ever draft a player anywhere with the idea that he’ll never be more than a backup? Could it be that Emery was just trying to publicly re-assure Cutler that he wasn’t drafting his replacement even while he took a swing at doing so?

Regardless, Fales may have been given a gift by starting with such apparently low expectations.  He’s had the chance to develop slowly behind other quarterbacks rather than being thrown into the fire too early.  It’s debatable but this is the way many of us still believe it should be done.  No greater example of the benefits could be seen than in the person of Denver quarterback  Brock Osweiler, who beat the Bears and was named AFC offensive player of the week after a solid first start last week.

I’ve very consistently claimed that the Bears need to draft a quarterback of the future sooner rather than later. And I still believe that. But drafting quarterbacks in the first three rounds is a risky business. At minimum Fales may be a good fall back option if the process requires more than one bite at the apple. But you also have to wonder if the Bears aren’t eventually going to find that they were forced to add the quarterback of the future to the roster by necessity last week.

Posted in Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers | Leave a comment

Actual Comments from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Posted on November 27, 2015 by Tom Shannon
  1. “Winning that Super Bowl was the worst thing that ever happened to us.  Now we’ll never get rid of McCarthy.”
  2. “Rogers needs to apologize to Favre, Starr and the entire fan base.”
  3. “This may sound blasphemic, but maybe they should slap a retractable roof on Lambeau and take the elements out of play.”
  4. “I wonder if Urban Meyer would be interested in making the jump to the NFL.”
  5. “Thompson should of drafted Roddy White instead of Rodgers and let Brett win another championship instead on intentionaly tanking in 2005.”
  6. “I think Janis slept with McCarthy’s wife.”
  7. “Will be there Thursday. The weather hopefully will wash away some of the stench Favre left.”
Posted in Chicago Bears | Leave a comment

Very Quick Comments: Bears at Packers 11/27/15

Posted on November 27, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Both the best and the worst thing about watching football on Thanksgiving is that you get to watch it with family. Surrounded by almost 20 of the closest people in the world to me, many of whom grew up watching football with me, is one of the greatest pleasures I get all year. But concentrating completely on the game and taking notes was simply impossible. I might as well have been watching in the middle of a hurricane. So my notes on this wonderful Bears victory will be brief and to the point if for no other reason than I don’t have as much as usual to say.

Defense

  1. The Packers game plan was clear from the outset and they never deviated from it. Play three wide receivers, thus forcing the Bears into nickel, then obliterate them and wear them down with Eddie Lacy up the middle over and over and over again. Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, on the other hand, must be one of the most stubborn men on earth. As with Adrian Peterson two weeks before, he flat out refused to do anything special to stop Lacy.  This was the battle of wills that was waged all night. Lacy had over a hundred yards rushing but it wasn’t enough.
  2. Give the defensive backs a lot of the credit for this win. Though Lacy continually took chunks of yardage up the middle, whenever Aaron Roger dropped back to pass, it was a tough exercise. Over and over again Rogers made time with his feet as he avoided the pass rush. And over and over again, right down to the last play, he still could not find open receivers. It was a wonderful display by a unit that, at least up until now, I didn’t consider to have much talent. Like a lot of things about this team, I’m now going to have to re-assess this.

Offense

  1. As most regular readers know, I’m not much of a Jay Cutler fan. Repeatedly over a period of ten years, Cutler has flat out quit in tough games, especially in Lambeau. He’s still the guy who quit on Denver so long ago.  And he’s still the guy as late as last year who gave up against New Orleans to the point where he was actually benched for the now departed Jimmy Clausen.
    But fair is fair. This is the game that I was pointing to all year as Cutler’s watershed. Based upon past history, it’s exactly the type of game he should have collapsed in. When the Packers came out swinging, confused him, put a lot of pressure on him, and forced him to throw a near interception early in the first quarter, I thought that’s what was going to happen. The offense started with repeated three and outs and I was convinced the Packers were going to wear the courageous Bears defense down to a nub.It didn’t happen. Cutler hung in there and the Bears re-grouped. It was ugly but they managed to possess the ball and keep the defense off the field. And it was largely due to Cutler and his mobility and the fact that he kept calm and adjusted.It’s going to be very hard to continue to trash Cutler from here on out. This was a big game for him.
  2. Give credit to some of the lesser known receivers who stepped up in this game. Marquess Wilson and Marc Mariani both had big catches throughout the game. Due largely to their efforts along with the return of Alshon Jeffery, the Packers had a great deal of trouble getting the Bears off of the field on third and long, especially late. Wonderful job.
  3. The Bears offensive line had a tough time handling the Packer defensive line. I credited a lot of the Packers success Sunday against the Vikings to the deplorable state of the Minnesota offensive line. But the Packer defensive line is pretty good and the battle in the trenches was enjoyable to watch. The Bears had just over 100 yards rushing. Not as good as you’d like but also not a complete shutdown.

Miscellaneous

  1. Want to know why Cris Collinsworth is the best color man in the game? Look no further than the wonderful job he did pointing out how the Packers defensive linemen were shooting inside to beat the Bears on stretch running plays. I’m convinced that there are few others that would have picked it up despite the obvious penetration that the Packers were getting.
  2. Special teams weren’t good enough. They allowed at least one huge run back that set the Packers up and the Bears 30 yard line. You can’t ordinarily get away with that against the Packers anywhere, especially in Lambeau.
  3. If you had told me that the Bears were going to win a game against the Packers where they had 12 penalties to their three, I would have refused to believe it. The officiating left a lot to be desired but to be fair, the poor calls were on both sides. The Bears aren’t going to get away with that often.
  4. As is their habit, the Packers had a lot of drops. They’re finding it harder to overcome them than usual this year. Jeremy Langford had a particularly tough time catching the ball in this game. If it was the rain, he’d better learn to adjust. He’s got a lot of wet football ahead of him.
  5. Not surprisingly, the two Packer turnovers were huge in this game. In contrast to last Sunday, the Bears didn’t have one. This is especially notable in regard to Cutler. Nice work, there.
  6. I’m in the state of shock and its not going to go away any time soon. Time after time I would watch Eddie Lacy carve out huge chunks of yardage and shake my head.  But then I’d look up at the scoreboard and the Bears were still ahead.  Honest to heaven, I still can’t figure out how it happened.

    7. Up until this game, my assessment of the Bears has been one of a talent deficient but well-coached team, especially on defense. But how talent-deficient can they possibly be and still beat the Packers in Lambeau?  It’s obvious that I’m going to have to spend some time re-assessing this team. I’d still like to see more but based upon the last two games against two of the better teams in the league, I might be under-estimating them.

 

Posted in Chicago Bears, Game Comments, Green Bay Packers | 4 Comments

Thinking About Where We Are in Terms of Where We’re Going

Posted on November 23, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Steve Rosenbloom at the Chicago Tribune reflects my thoughts exactly after the Bears loss to the Broncos Sunday at Soldier Field:

“[I]t’s hard to get mad about losing to a better Broncos team with the league’s top defense.

“It’s even hard for me to get mad at [quarterback Jay] Cutler for his regularly scheduled interception and sack-strip. It’s what he does an average of once a game, even if that truth runs counter to other people’s happy storyline.

“But hey, at least he’s not doing it in a Super Bowl season.

“This should be one of those times when you stop, breathe, and remind yourself to chill because it’s going to get better, and probably without a lot of the guys you were watching, maybe even Cutler.”

I know it’s frustrating watching the Bears lose. But they were so badly out-manned by the Broncos that it took a game played so cleanly that the Bears had no penalties to just keep it close.

People need to tone down their expectations for this team. When they play good teams with more talent, they’ll always have a chance to win. But only if the other team plays a bad game. That especially goes for Green Bay Thursday where the Bears are eight point dogs in a divisional matchup. Realistically, all you can do at this point is just relax and hope that the talent gap doesn’t show too badly in a blow out loss. If the Bears keep playing like they are, it won’t. But even if it does, try not to be too upset. It’s time to stop thinking about wins and to start thinking about the future.

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Quick Game Comments: Broncos at Bears 11/22/15

Posted on November 22, 2015 by Tom Shannon

bearsbroncosthree

Offense

  1. The Bears came out trying to run from the start with a triple tight end set. The Broncos were having none of it and did a good job stopping the it. I thought maybe the Bears had slightly more success once they started to spread the Broncos out more in the second quarter. But they still weren’t able to do it well and I’d say the Broncos did a pretty good job overall. this was a big key to the game. The Bears need to run the ball.
  2. The Bears lost the line of scrimmage. Not only could they not run but Jay Cutler was under a fair bit of pressure. It wasn’t a horrible effort. But it needed to be better. Jay Cutler did a marvelous job of moving around in the pocket to avoid pressure.
  3. Cutler found receivers over the middle early on third downs to keep the chains moving. This was apparently a weakness that the Bears identified and tried to take advantage of.
  4. The Broncos had obviously done their homework. They were all over Bears screens that have been a staple in recent weeks.
  5. In addition to taking advantage of the Broncos over the middle, I thought the Bears managed to et in a number of good deep throws against the Broncos, who were likely concentrating on taking away the shorter throws the Bears have been living off of lately.
  6. Martellus Bennett once again didn’t have a good game. He was missing catches that he really should be making. His concentration has been off for some time, now. He did draw three big pass interference calls but the Bears need more from Bennett with Alshon Jeffery not on the field.

Defense

  1. The Broncos came out running the ball very successfully. This set up the play action pass nicely and Brock Osweiler scored their first touchdown by sucking the linebackers in on such a pass.
  2. The Bears flat out lost the line of scrimmage this game against the run.
  3. The Broncos came out and took advantage of their speed and really beat the Bears linebackers in coverage. The Bears weren’t horrible. Just not good enough.
  4. The Bears did get pressure on Osweiler. Sometimes it was rushing straight up but they also brought the blitz with some success. They weren’t fancy blitzes by any stretch but the Broncos didn’t handle them well. Osweiler could have gotten rid of it quicker under pressure but most of the problems weren’t really his fault. His linemen were getting beat.
  5. Osweiler looked reasonably accurate. He does have a habit of staring down receivers that might come back to burn him but he makes good decisions. He’s got a good deep ball. He’s not exactly a young Peyton Manning but he looks like a pretty good pro quarterback to me.
  6. This was what the Broncos want their offense to look like. Osweiler was under center the whole time. There was no compromise as there has been with making Peyton Manning more comfortable at quarterback.
  7. Kudos to the Bears on a few defensive stands that took some back bone to make over the course of the game.

Miscellaneous

  1. Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts and Evan Washburn did a nice job. I really like Fouts, who I think does a good job of breaking down the important plays to let you know exactly what happened and why. Too bad he works for a network that runs commercials mostly for shows targeted at people my parent’s age (that’s pretty old).
  2. Deonte Thompson replaced Marc Mariani as the kick return man. they continued to use Mariani as a punt returner. Omar Bolden made a terrible mistake by letting a kickoff hit the ground in the end zone. It bounced back and dribbled out. The Broncos got the ball at the two yard line. Other than that there weren’t many obvious miscues.
  3. This was a relatively clean game with few penalties for the Broncos and none for the Bears. There was a big thirty yard pass interference call against Brandon Marshall on Martellus Bennett that hurt the Broncos pretty badly in the fourth quarter. Bennett drew two more against Aquib Talib Bradley Roby after that. The Bears were very fortunate not to get a personal foul penalty after both Willie Young and Jarvis Jenkins hit Osweiler after he gave himself up for a sack with two minutes left.
  4. Except for some catches that Martellus Bennett really should have made, I’d say drops weren’t a big part of this game on either side. Jeremy Langford had a drop in the fourth quarter that also didn’t help the Bears offensive effort.
  5. Jay Cutler threw an interception to Danny Trevathan. It’s not a defense but in a way it was understandable. Trevathan, a linebacker, was on a wide receiver in Marquess Wilson. So it’s usually the throw you make. The Broncos got the ball deep in Bears territory. It resulted in no points as the Bears defense came up big and stopped the Broncos on fourth down from the two yard line. Cutler almost threw another one in the fourth quarter to Bradley Roby but Roby dropped it. Then Von Miller stripped the ball from Cutler from behind and Malik Jackson caught it for a second interception.
  6. I thought it was an indication of the progress that the Bears have made that they were competitive in this game. They played well against another team with more talent who was also playing reasonably well. If they had done more offensively with the ball on the Denver side of the field, this could well have been a victory. A very respectable outing overall and, considering the talent gap between the teams, there was a lot to be happy about here.
Posted in Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Game Comments | Leave a comment

Revising Expectations for the Bears

Posted on November 21, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Jon Greenberg at ESPN is revising his expectations for the Bears:

“In the beginning … we predicted 6-10 for the Chicago Bears and it seemed just about right.”

“But then Jay Cutler returned [from injury] ahead of schedule and things settled down, and now, weeks after fans stopped watching games between their outstretched fingers, this looks like, knock on Mike Ditka’s pompadour, it could be a wholly respectable team with a longshot chance of making the postseason.”

The Bears are on a hot streak and Cutler is certainly a big part of that. But Cutler or not, I’m sticking with 6-10.

The Bears are 4-5 and at this point in the season, I think that’s great. But let’s not forget that they are the same team that lost to the Lions a month ago. They’ve won two games since then but they’ve gotten a lot of help from two teams that, frankly, played well below their talent level. Such things have a bd habit of evening out and more often than not, given decent coaching and a good environment, teams end up right where their talent level says they should.

I’m not disparaging the Bears here. I think they’re a well-coached team that is making progress every week. But Denver is a much better team that is unlikely to give the game away with poor discipline in the same manner that the Rams did. And I don’t care how badly the Packers are slipping at the moment, I can’t believe that they won’t pull it together and beat the Bears on Thanksgiving. I also see the Vikings as a loss in Minnesota. After that, the Bears are still a team that’s going to be no more than a coin flip against Washington, San Fransisco, Tampa Bay, and Detroit. If they win half of those, that’s two more wins. And that’s where I’m still sitting.

Posted in Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins | 2 Comments