Is Gabe Carimi a Failed Right Tackle?

Another good question for Dan Pompei from the Chicago Tribuune:

Is Gabe Carimi destined to become the next Chris Williams — a first round “left tackle” who couldn’t play either tackle position and had to be switched inside to save his career? I don’t think there’s any way Carimi beats out both J’Marcus Webb and Jonathan Scott at right tackle. David Jones, East St. Louis

“As it stands now, it’s looking more like Carimi’s best chance will be at guard rather than right tackle.  You can’t have a three-man competition for a starting spot and give all three players an equal shot.  My hunch is Marc Trestman and Aaron Kromer will let Webb and Scott battle it out at right tackle and move Carimi to guard at the start.  The way the roster is now, Carimi is needed more at guard than tackle.  None of this means Carimi won’t eventually end up back at tackle though.  I still think he has the ability to play right tackle at a pretty high level in the NFL if he can get his legs back.  In fact, he could still be moved to tackle this year even if he starts out at guard.  For that to happen, both Webb and Scott would have to disappoint.”

I’ll leave aside the fact that Carimi probably wasn’t drafted to be a left tackle.

I don’t have any big problems with Scott other than that he’s not the most athletic of linemen.  But the thought of J’Marcus Webb starting at right tackle worries me.  Webb’s problem isn’t athletic ability.  It’s his lack of concentration and consistency.  That seems to be unlikely to get better on the right side.

I’d just as soon seem Carimi at right tackle if his knee is healthy.  Here’s hoping the Bears haven’t given up on him at the position too soon.

Is Alec Ogletree Worth the Risk?

Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

Don’t you think the Bears will be worried about character concerns with Alec Ogletree? —@TCBullfrog, from Twitter

“Yes I do. I think 31 other teams will be as well.  But that doesn’t man Ogletree won’t be a first round draft pick.  Ogletree reportedly failed a drug test and was subsequently suspended by Georgia for four games. He also has been arrested for misdemeanor theft and driving under the influence. A team could look past one of those incidents and justify it a lot easier than it can look past and justify three of them…  Given Ogletree’s past, there is no question taking him involves risk.  Giving Ogletree’s ability, the potential reward could outweigh that risk. The issue is at what point of the draft will taking that risk make sense.”

I, personally, would be excited to see Ogletree become a Bear.  At their position in the first round, he would be a steal.  Given the Brandon Marshall trade, I’d say general manager Phil Emery is more of a gambler than most in this regard.  Ownership is unlikely to get involved – unless Ogletree does something stupid.  Then it won’t be just him who is paying the price.

I’d say if he were to still be there at #20 overall, the Bears would take him.

The Horizontal Draft Approach and How Teams Don’t Pick the Best Available Player

Armando Salguero at the Miami Herald says that, though all general managers say they are taking the best available player, many are  actually drafting horizontally and not vertically:

“Drafting horizontally basically means the Dolphins want to give themselves space to fill their needs instead of simply picking the player with the highest draft grade.”

“Drafting horizontally, one critic of the format told me last week, is a great way to fool the media and the owner into thinking you’re picking the best available player who coincidently plays a position of need (wink, wink) when what you’re really doing is just filling your greatest needs.”

“The vertical approach simply grades a number of players that are draft eligible one after the other, regardless of position. It is a 300-name totem pole of sorts with the best player in the draft at the top and Mr. Irrelevant at the bottom.

And, theoretically, the selection process takes on a life of its own because as names come off the board, all a team has to do when its turn comes up is pick the next player with the highest grade.

If a team is drafting 12th overall, as the Dolphins are, and the highest player on the board has the No. 6 overall grade, that’s the pick regardless of position or need.

That’s the classic approach. It’s simple. It’s black and white.

The horizontal approach leaves room for more grays.

Teams using this approach stretch every position group horizontally across a board. Left ends, nose tackles, right ends, weak linebackers, strong linebackers, inside linebackers, wide receivers, quarterbacks and so on. (Teams with 4-3 defenses use different position groups as teams running 3-4 looks.)

The Dolphins would then take a small number of players — between 120 and 180, depending on the year — and plug them into their board according to their position.

Along the first line under every position, the club places the name of players that have a first-round grade. So first-round cornerbacks are on the same horizontal line as first-round quarterbacks or running backs or any other position.

Along the second line, the name of every player with a second-round grade is placed under his appropriate position. That’s how a second-round safety can be on the same horizontal line with a second-round quarterback.

And on draft day, when the No.?12 pick comes up — assuming the Dolphins aren’t trading up or down — [Jeff] Ireland will be able to scan horizontally across the first round and spy the handful of players graded at the pick. Those players will be laid out horizontally at their various positions.

The Dolphins GM can then select a name out of that group.

It shouldn’t surprise that the player selected often plays a position of need, because logic and human nature will dictate that picking a quarterback ahead of a cornerback won’t help the team as much in 2012 even if the quarterback is rated higher.”

I’m pretty sure that Salguero is actually simplifying what is, in fact, a very complex process with a lot of blurry edges for every team.  I’d be willing to bet that no team in the NFL drafts vertically in the strictest sense of the word as described above and very few draft strictly horizontally. The NFL Network goes into the draft room of one team every year and, though they don’t give you a good look at it, I’ve never seen a draft board that wasn’t set up by position.  Most probably there’s both a vertical and horizontal arrangement on every board.

They key is to take the best available player that’s going to improve your team.  For some teams that means taking the best player at a position of need (horizontal).  For others it means taking the best player who can improve any position (vertical).  The Dolphins fall closer to the first category.

On the other hand, the Bears almost certainly will fall closer to the latter category this year.  They’ve tried very hard to fill positions of need with free agents in the hopes of leaving themselves free to take almost any player on draft day.  But that doesn’t mean regardless of position.  They aren’t taking a running back in the few rounds because they simply aren’t going to find one who is going to be an upgrade over Matt Forte.  Unless they’re planning on playing a lot more man coverage, they aren’t going to find an upgrade over their two Pro Bowl cornerbacks.  And though quarterback is a little different in that you might draft for the future there, its also almost certainly out, at least for the first round.  But defensive tackle, defensive end, and safety?  These aren’t necessarily positions of need per se.  But I’m betting the Bears wouldn’t hesitate to go in any of those directions.

Personally I prefer the vertical approach.  Success in the league depends upon the ability to find impact players.  Common sense tells you that you are less likely to find one if your hands are tied by only considering a hand full of positions.  But for budget conscious teams like the Packers, and particularly those with lots of needs like the Dolphins, the horizontal approach isn’t just the best way to go.  It’s the only way to go.  Something to consider as we watch the process unfold on April 25.

Bear Played It Safe with D.J. Williams

Well, financially at least.

ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Siefert gives the specifics of D.J. Williams‘ contract:

The contract does not include any guaranteed money. Williams’ base salary is $900,000, and there are two sets of roster bonuses that will pay him $23,437 for every game he is on the 53-man roster and another $23,437 each time he is on the game-day 46-man roster. So if he is active for all 16 games, those roster bonuses would total $750,000.

There is also a $100,000 workout bonus tied to offseason work.

Williams played only seven games last season due to two suspensions.  He  had a DUI and he also failed a mandatory league drug test.   So the Bears were cautious with the contract.  It won’t help them on the field if he has to be released but they won’t be on the hook for any money.

I’d expect they’ll keep on looking pretty hard for more linebacker help in case Williams doesn’t work out.  The draft still might be a good place for that to happen but things have to fall the right way for that to happen.

Will We See More Zone Blitz from the Bears in 2013?

While reading this interesting article from Andy Benoit at ESPN, on NFL teams and their “pillar needs”, the comments regarding the Cincinnati Bengals and their need for athletic defensive linemen caught me eye:

“A critical component of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s scheme, particularly in his aggressive third-down packages, is the zone blitz.”

“In its simplest terms, a zone blitz is essentially where a back-seven defender rushes and a defensive lineman drops back to replace him in coverage. Defenses, particularly 3-4 units, like it because it can create chaos and confusion without sacrificing bodies in coverage. The reason more 4-3 teams don’t zone blitz is it demands sensational athleticism from the defensive linemen. They must be able to explode off the ball, redirect into a backpedal, change directions laterally and move well in space. The more linemen a team has who can do this, the more diverse its zone blitz packages can be. Zimmer’s Bengals are diverse enough to use overload zone blitzes, meaning multiple linemen drop back.”

Most Bears fans who were paying attention noticed that rookie defensive lineman Shea McClellin dropped into coverage on occasion last year.  It didn’t happen often because defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli was a Tampa-2 guy at heart and he really believed in staying with this basic alignment as much as possible (though to his credit he did recognize and act upon the need to mix it up on occasion).

In any case, though he was undersized for a defensive end, McClellin is very athletic.  So much so that many writers still think he’s going to end up at linebacker (I don’t agree).

New defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has stated that he’ll keep the base 4-3 scheme the same for the Bears with some tweeks.  I’m starting to wonder if one of those tweeks is going to include the use of McClellin a lot more in coverage in zone blitz situations.  It should be interesting to watch.

The Kansas City Chiefs Make a Special Announcement

The Sports Pickle “reports” that one team has made a progressive announcement:

The Kansas City Chiefs bravely stepped forward today and announced they are gay, becoming the first team in major professional sports to come out as homosexual.

I can’t believe they beat the Forty-niners to the punch.

Nawrocki Evaluates the Bears 2012 Draft

Nolan Nawrocki at Pro Football Weekly reviews the Bears 2012 draft:

“Far from a great debut for GM Phil Emery’s first draft class, but it’s too soon to call it a failure.”

The pick that kills this draft? Brandon Hardin in the third round. Your third rounder is supposed to compete to start not be a back up limited by injury.

Having said that, as Nawrocki points out, its a little early to evaluate this draft.  I think a lot of these picks like first rounder Shea McClellin were based upon anticipated future development.  Both he and second rounder Alshon Jeffery needed to spend some time in the weight room and that wasn’t going to happen until this offseason.

Dan Pompei’s Mock Draft Has the Bears in a Good Position

Dan Pompei‘s mock draft at the Chicago Tribune works out well for the Bears:

20. Bears: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia. If he makes it this far, Ogletree seems like an easy pick. A trade down remains a viable possibility, as the Bears have flexibility as far as needs.

This would be an outstanding scenario for the Bears.  If Ogletree fell right into their laps like this, it would be a steal.

Fortunately GM Phil Emery has done an outstanding job of putting the Bears into a position where he can take the best player available with few exceptions (for instance at running back where he’s highly unlikely to find a starter better than Matt Forte).  Whoever falls to them, its almost certainly going to be a good pick.

Nolan Nawrocki Rips Geno Smith

It the time of year when everyone, including me, starts paying more attention to player scouting reports and this one by Nolan Nawrocki at Pro Football Weekly reads like a bad movie review:

Started the season red-hot with the help of two playmaking receivers and created a national stir generating a lot of overexcitement in the scouting community. Quickly came down to earth after Kansas State disguised coverages and brought pressure he could not handle and he finished dropping six of his final eight games. A cross between Akili Smith and Aaron Brooks, Smith is a gimmick, overhyped product of the system lacking the football savvy, work habits and focus to cement a starting job and could drain energy from a QB room. Will be overdrafted and struggle to produce against NFL defensive complexities.

In fairness, Dan Pompei at The National Football Post responds:

Many do not agree with Nolan Nawrocki’s sources on Geno Smith… The closest I heard was a couple scouts suspect Smith has a little con in him, and they find him to be a little hard to read.”

Regardless it sound like he’s going to be a bit of a risk and a pick more controversial than usual even for a quarterback.

EDIT:  I seemed to remember Nawrocki doing something like this in the past.  Sure enough, as I looked back to previous blog entries, I found that Nawrocki posted a similar rip job on QB Cam Newton in 2011 that generated quite a bit of controversy.

It doesn’t necessarily mean that the evaluation isn’t honest but the strong language smells like a way to get more people (like me) to visit the PFW website.

A Bit of a Reboot

I took some time off from writing this blog in part because its a slow time for the NFL and in part because I wanted to think about how I was writing it.

I have a suspicion that people didn’t like reading the articles because they were too long.  As a result, I’m trying to cut down on the length, posting shorter, quick hit articles that highlight some of the things I’ve found.  Hopefully this will make the blog easier to read 1) because it won’t require any kind of time commitment to punch the link and quickly read the article and 2) because you’ll be able to quickly choose the article you are interested in based on the title without wading through a bunch of stuff you really don’t care than much about.

There may be another interruption at some point because I’m thinking of moving the blog to my own server.  But that won’t happen until this summer at the earliest.

Drop me a line and let me know what you think.