Bookies Take a Bath on the Super Bowl and Other Points of View

Bears

Elsewhere

  • Michael Wilbon at ESPN talks about watching the Super Bowl at the White House with Bears fan Barak Obama.  Oh, yeah.  He’s the President of the United States, as well.

“The worst-case scenario is the type of grudge match that wiped out the 1994 World Series and the 2004-05 NHL season. Although possible, there are too many billions at stake for the sides not to eventually come to their senses.”

Baseball fans said the same  thing in 1994.

I’ve gotten a definite impression that there are a least some owners who are more interested in breaking the union than getting an agreement.  I get the impression that DeMaurice Smith is more interested in making sure he doesn’t give much if anything in his first negotiation than he is in looking after the best interests of the game and, therefore, the players.  Its a bad combination.

I’m not holding my breath waiting for the next season to start.

“Chargers: Is this their last season in San Diego? They are the clubhouse favorite to relocate to Los Angeles, and the NFL will be looking to move back into the nation’s second-largest market once the CBA is resolved. If the Chargers can’t get a stadium deal in San Diego — and the prospects of one are looking bleaker by the day — they will be looking to exercise the escape clause in their Qualcomm Stadium lease.”

I know that the Chargers are only one of many teams that have talked of relocating.  But I think this one might be the real thing.  There’s absolutely no way they’re going to get a stadium in San Diego.

  • Mike Munchak in the Titan’s new head coach:

“With players, the way we look at it when we’re going to new teams is the city appeal, how we feel about the location, and then it’s, ‘What was it like when I played that team?’  Certain teams you play against, you’re like, ‘Them guys were soft. I don’t want to be part of that organization. I don’t want to play for them.’ Or, ‘They were arguing on the sideline, I don’t want to be part of that type of disruption.’

“‘I know there’s some teams that we played, some guys were like, ‘It’d be all right to go to war with those guys. They show up on game day. They show up to fight.’ And that’s what we do.'”

I think the NFC North as a group holds up pretty well in this respect.  The Vikings, perhaps, didn’t show as much fight as you’d like to see.  Other than that, the the division has some pretty tough, high football character teams.

  • Charlie Walters at the Pioneer Press thinks the Vikings are looking at last place next year.  I’m not so sure.  There’s a lot of talent on that team.  If Les Frazier gets them to play like they did in 2009 with the addition of even a decent quarterback, they’ll be as dangerous as anyone.
  • On the other hand, Jeremy Fowler, also at the Pioneer Press, points out that DT Pat Williams is unlikely to be back.  If DE Ray Edwards leaves via free agency and DT Kevin Williams actually has to serve a suspension stemming from the Star Caps case, they could have some trouble on the defensive line next year.  That’s the strength of their team.
  • According to Geoff Mosher at the Delaware News Journal, the Eagles have shot down a rumor making the rounds through cyberspace that Jon Gruden, a former Super Bowl champion coach and current ESPN analyst, would be replacing Andy Reid as Eagles head coach.  Via benmaller.com.
  • Those who claim that sports books always go with the spread that gives them a 50:50 split, listen up.  The Las Vegas casinos as a whole made less than a million dollars on the Super Bowl with some suffering rare losses.  The books who lost stuck with the “dead number” not moving thier odds despite heavy betting on the Green Bay Packers.  The strategy is risky but it maximizes profits if the initial number turns out to be the right one.
  • George Bretherton at The New York Times thinks the Steelers should have run the ball more in the second half of Super Bowl XLV.  I generally agree, especially as he has laid it out.  But more generally the Steelers made it very tough on themselves throughout the game with harmful penalties that consistently put them in holes they had to try to pass their way out of.
  • The Sports Pickle tracked the NFL’s official Facebook page during Super Bowl XLV.

One Final Thought

Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic can’t understand people who don’t watch the Super Bowl.  Its really simple.  They haven’t discovered television.  Or fire.

Cutler Needs Time with Martz to Succeed. And Much, Much More.

Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times writes about the fact that quarterback Jay Cutler needs an off season with offensive coordinator Mike Martz to correct his problems.  That means Bear fans should be praying there’s no lockout.  This is a very, very good article and its worth the read.  But I’ll bottom line it with the principal quotes from former Bears quarterback Jim Miller:

“’The problem with Jay is, because he’s so athletic, you don’t want to curtail him too much because that takes from that part of his game,’ said Miller, an analyst for Comcast SportsNet and Sirius NFL Radio. ‘But I get upset watching him because he could be so much better. He could be lights-out if he cleans up his footwork and fundamentals. All those things are correctable.’”

“’Jay can get there, but he has to have the ‘want to’ to be great, and the discipline to be able to do that.  He did a much better job this year of checking himself and not throwing dumb interceptions. Now if he can take it to the next level, with his footwork and things like that, then he can play to the level of an Aaron Rodgers.’”

Over and over again I’ve tried to point out that Cutler’s problems with leadership, with the media, with his peers, all reflect one fundamental difficulty.  That despite his immense physical talent, people doubt whether he has what it takes to do the little things he needs to do as a player to be great.

That’s what Miller means when he uses terms like “want to” and “discipline”.  He’s not talking about “toughness”.  He’s talking about what keeps a man in front of a screen until midnight watching tape.  He’s talking about, not spending 20 minutes twice a week working on footwork but spending hours on it, drilling and drilling and drilling.

Renowned psychiatrist Anna Freud once said, “I was always looking outside myself for strength and confidence, but it comes from within. It is there all the time.”

Cutler needs more time with Martz, who is probably the first decent quarterback coach they’ve had since Greg Olson left.  But he needs a lot more than that.  He needs the desire and force of will that it takes to overcome all obstacles and be the best.  That can’t from a coach.  It can only come from within one’s self.  We can only hope that it is buried somewhere deep within Jay Cutler.

Bears at a Crossroads at Cornerback

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Sun-Times continues his positional analysis with the cornerbacks.  He describes the Bears fundamental problem:

“The thing to keep in mind is Cover-2 based defenses don’t put a high premium on the position. That’s not to say cornerbacks are not valued. But it’s a zone-based scheme so the Bears aren’t out looking to invest in shutdown corners like Nnamdi Asomugha, who command huge salaries.”

The Bears find themselves at an important junction at cornerback.  Biggs is absolutely right about the cover two and in the past its obvious that general manager Jerry Angelo has followed the philosophy described the article.  Concentrate on the pass rush and pick up your zone cornerbacks after that.

But having said that, the Bears probably played more single coverage this year than they ever have before.  They had to.  Teams are getting too good at setting up mismatches and picking apart zones if you don’t occasionally mix up the defense.  The Bears had success doing that this year but they occasionally came up short simply because they couldn’t cover, particularly when it came to keeping up with good slot receivers.  Wes Welker in New England makes a living off of mismatches created in this fashion.  That’s why the only way to beat them is to do what the Jets do – play ferocious man-t0-man defense and challenge every throw.  Green Bay does the same thing with whoever they decide to line up in the slot on a play-by-play basis.

If the Bears are going to continue to play so much man-to-man coverage underneath, they are going to need more and better cover corners.  Where they are going to find them while still filling their other holes is a real problem.

Time to Acknowledge the One Basic Fact about the Packers

Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times explains why the Packers winning the Super Bowl is really bad news for the Bears:

“Why are the Packers able to plug in rookie Bryan Bulaga — the 24th pick of the 2010 draft — at offensive tackle and win the Super Bowl, while the Bears’ Chris Williams — the 14th pick of the 2008 draft — is running out of o-line positions to find a home?

“Why was Packers linebacker Erik Walden — picked up off the street on Oct. 27 — an unstoppable force in Week 17?

“Why was Cullen Jenkins — who missed the last month of the regular-season with a calf injury — a bigger factor in the NFC Championship Game than Peppers?

“How did Packers backup quarterback Matt Flynn nearly beat the New England Patriots on the road a week after the Patriots dominated the Bears when Todd Collins threw four interceptions and had a 6.2 rating against the Carolina Panthers?

“The Packers have two basic advantages over the Bears right now: they do more with more and they do more with less.”

In other words, they’re a better organization top to bottom than the Bears.  It makes me sick to write it but its basically true.

“they do more with less”?  Why not just say they’re better coached?

“they do more with more”?  Why not just say they have better young talent because they’ve got a better general manager who knows how to draft?  One who didn’t have to spend a fortune in free agency or give away two years worth of top draft picks to make up for his own failures.

Potash only needed two words to write this article:  “They’re better.”  Its totally disgusting but its the simple truth.

The Sad Story of William “The Refrigerator” Perry and Other Points of View

Bears

  • In what has to be the saddest story I’ve read all year, Tom Friend at ESPN details the struggles of William Perry against his both his physical and mental disabilities.  Here is the accompanying video:

Elsewhere

  • The Super Bowl ads can be found here at the Chicago Tribune.  Here’s what was probably my favorite one:

  • Former Baltimore head coach Brian Billick talks to Joe Reedy at the Cincinnati Enquirer about new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and the “West Coast offense”:

“’There’s no such thing as a West Coast offense anymore. It doesn’t exist,’ Billick said. ‘Everyone has taken different bits and pieces of it and its morphed into a number of different things. He may use some of the West Coast verbage but even the most ardent of west coast guys who came directly from the [Bill] Walsh lineage whether its be via [Mike] Holmgren to Andy Reid to Jon Gruden, they’ve all evolved it and it’s morphed into different forms almost like the Dungy 2 or Tampa 2, everyone uses a form of it. To identify a team like that, it’s kind of a misnomer because everyone is doing it.”

One Final Thought

Like Mayne’s vidoe above, “Vince Lombadi’s” final speech to players in both locker rooms is also no less moving for being posted late.  This was a nice series of video’s put together by the league.  I hope they do it again next year.

Super Bowl XLV Still Hasn’t Happened Yet and Other Points of View

Bears

“If you want to criticize something, let’s talk about the offensive line, let’s ask the decision-makers up in the front office in Chicago, and I know they’re going to hate me for this, but why is Jay Cutler and Matt Forte playing behind that? I’m not going to get on those guys, because you can’t even move outside until you fix inside.”

Elsewhere

“The key for the Steelers is their pre-snap disguise. Free safety Ryan Clark will show a single high safety look (Cover 1 to the offense) while strong safety Troy Polamalu will move to his blitz alignment and time the snap of the ball. What the Steelers create is a two-on-one blitz versus the running back in protection (strong safety and nickel back) with the outside linebacker “scooping” to attack the left tackle. This blitz will test the protection schemes of the Packers’ offensive line and could get a free runner at [Green Bay quarterback Aaron] Rodgers‘ blind side.”

“The Packers need to attack Ben Roethlisberger from his right side to push him left. That means the Steelers quarterback will have to throw across his body when he scrambles loose, rather than setting up in a more natural stance and finding his receivers.”

Hines Ward recalled how Tomlin initially instituted dress codes and included more contact than an MMA fight during his first training camp.

“‘He was very militant,’ Ward said. ‘Some veteran guys challenged his authority, and they’re no longer here. The guys that he kept, we bought into his belief and his system.'”

“When you walk in our building and you have pictures of Curly Lambeau, Vince Lombardi, Mike Holmgren — our history is among us all the time,” he said. “It creates a standard and expectation that fits right along with our visions.”

“Roethlisberger will be without Maurkice Pouncey, the outstanding rookie center who suffered a high ankle sprain early in the AFC championship game against the Jets. The Steelers switched to backup center Doug Legursky, a second-year player who finished the game.

“‘The NFL is made up of lots of players like him — guys who somehow got an opportunity and seized it,’ Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. ‘We’re completely confident (in him). That’s why we’re not changing what we do.'”

“The Packers and Steelers are two reasons you shouldn’t get too enamored with free agents. Neither team usually is a player in the free agent market, and both are better because of it.”

Matt Cassel has Drew Brees to thank for his success last season. Cassel’s coach Todd Haley made Cassel watch a lot of tape on Brees’ footwork and his pass drops, and rode Cassel hard about trying to do it the way Brees does it. Brees is known for having the best footwork in the league, and Haley wants Cassel as close to that as possible. Haley asks some of the same things of Cassel that Sean Payton asks of Brees. Haley and Payton were co-workers in Dallas.”

“Even based solely on the regular season, I thought McCarthy should have been runner up [to Bill Belichick].”

I think McCarthy should have won.

“You don’t hire an offensive or defensive guy. You hire a leader.  That’s the No. 1 thing to look for is a leader, someone to stand in front of the room, command the respect of the organization and obviously the players, and somebody the owner feels good about.

“Because wherever their expertise is, they have to be able to hire around it. So No. 1 is leadership, the second thing is the ability to communicate, and the third for me is to hire and delegate.”

“ARLINGTON, TX—Despite the overwhelming media hype, countless interviews with players and coaches, and considerable speculation about the big game since the conference champions earned Super Bowl berths nearly two weeks ago, Super Bowl XLV still hasn’t happened yet. “It feels like it should have happened last Sunday, but it didn’t,” Ohio-area football fan Jared Britton told reporters Friday, adding that instead of the Super Bowl, the Pro Bowl happened.”

One Final Thought

Football con man Michael Vick won the AP Comeback Player of the Year award despite having attended a party just last June at which a man was shot in cold blood.  I’m wondering if he still gets this award if it had been a dog.

Answers to the Wrong Questions Indicate Fan Support for Eighteen Games Weak

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell gave his state of the league address yesterday.  Amongst the things he talked about was the proposed 18 game regular season:

“Repeatedly, the fans have said the quality of the preseason doesn’t meet NFL standards. That is … the basis on which we started to look at the 18-and-two concept, by taking two of those low-quality, non-competitive games and turn those into quality, competitive games that the fans want to see.”

He’s got a point about the preseason.  But I’ll say that he might be surprised (as I was) by the number of fans who would rather just see those two games eliminated.

I, personally, think the more football the better.  But many fans I know disagree with me because they are worried that the quality of the game will be diluted.  That seems to be supported by the results of this poll from the Associated Press:

“Of everyone surveyed, 27 percent strongly favor or somewhat favor adding two regular-season games and dropping two preseason games. When the group is narrowed to those identifying themselves as NFL fans, support for the change rises to a total of 45 percent — yet only 18 percent who strongly favor it.”

There seems to be little doubt that fan support for an extension of the season is weak.  And, of course, anyone who has been paying attention knows that the players as a group hate the idea.  But I think everyone is asking the wrong question.  It seems clear that the owners aren’t going to easily agree to anything that doesn’t include the two extra games.  So let’s try this one:

Which would you rather have?  Eighteen games in 2012 or a lockout where there are less than 16 games 2011?

That one shouldn’t be a tough choice for anyone.

Fantuz Flakes Commercial and Other Points of View

Bears

  • But you know when you’ve really made it?  When you have your own dandruff shampoo (the video was made by the Hamilton Tiger-Cats).
  • Biggs continued his excellent positional analysis series with the running backs.  I thought this was an interesting choice of words:

Harvey Unga faced an uphill battle to make the 53-man roster as an addition in the supplemental draft and the Bears found a convenient way to redshirt him with a hamstring pull in training camp.”

Kevin Colbert, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ director of football operations, noted that nearly three-quarters of Pro Bowl players were selected in the first three rounds.

‘‘’So it’s very important that you get those players right,’ Colbert said, ‘and we really emphasize making sure we don’t make mistakes on the 1’s, 2’s and 3’s. If you get lucky on the later rounds, great. But the 1’s, 2’s and 3’s, if you miss on them, they can set you back for some years.’’’


Elsewhere

  • Pittsburgh defensive end Brett Keisel has been growing his beard for seven months.  He thinks it gives the Steelers’ “Super Bowl powers”.  From Sam Farmer at the Los Angeles Times.
  • NFL commissioner Roger Goodell addresses the negotiations with the Player’s Union in this video as he answers a queston from Chad Ochocinco:

One Final Thought

I am not going to pick the Super Bowl game, especially against the spread, because I think its too close to call.  But in what I consider to be a good sign for the Steelers, most of the money in Vegas is coming in on the Packers.

Most of the bets aren’t in yet.  But MGM Resorts International, which operates 10 sports books on the Las Vegas Strip, said about 70 percent of the money bet so far in its casinos is for a Packers victory.  Bookies aren’t in the business of losing money.

Linebacker Is the “Ghost Need” for the Bears

Bolshevik revolutionary and Marxist theorist Leon Trotsky once said “Old age is the most unexpected of things that can happen to a man.”

No one is calling for the Bears to draft a linebacker high in the draft.  That includes me.  But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a need.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune continues his excellent positional analysis series with the Bears linebackers:

“While this doesn’t look like a need position, it is because [Brian] Urlacher, [Lance] Briggs and [Hunter] Hillenmeyer are the only linebackers under contract for next season.”

Its a shame the Bears don’t have high round draft picks to invest in every position on the field.  They seem to have a lot of needs to a team that just won their division.

This is an aging unit and its going to need an influx of youth soon.  Urlacher is 33, Briggs is 30 and, if they bring him back, Pisa Tinoisamoa will be 30 next season.  Biggs thinks that Urlacher has “enough spring in his legs to remain at a high level for a couple more seasons”.  I think so, too.  But I thought Brett Favre had another year in him after a wonderful performance in 2009.  Instead he went from old to too old in a snap.  And its worse for position players who rely more on their athleticism than the typical veteran quarterback.

I’ve even seen it in my own work.  One year a person is perfectly healthy and doing the job they’ve always done.  The next year they have 3 or 4 health problems, each building off of the last and each making the other worse.  Its a scary situation.

The fact that the Bears don’t have any youth here is largely due to the failures of past draft.  General Manager Jerry Angelo has invested in defensive lineman after defensive lineman – and rightfully so.  But the fact that he hasn’t hit on one in a very long time means that he can’t afford to stop drafting the position in favor of other needs.  Eventually the Bears are going to pay for his failures and it might well be here.

The guess here is that this need slides again in favor of more immediate problems.  But the linebacker position is one that we will want to keep an eye on.  Age isn’t something that always gradually shows up over time.  Instead it creeps up on you in the dark takes you from behind when you least expect it.

Roethlisberger Gets “Punched in the Nose” and Other Points of View

Bears

“‘Bring him back,’ Goodwin said Thursday. ‘The biggest thing about Olin is his leadership. I’ve been watching film on him the last few games because we didn’t know who we were going to face in the Super Bowl. Let me tell you, he can still play. All the things I saw him do when I was with the Bears, he can still do now. It’s a no-brainer to re-sign him, No. 1 as a player, but No. 2 as a leader.'”

Elsewhere

“What has gotten the Packers to this point is good drafting, but not just that. It’s also solid player development. The Packers’ coaching staff prepares young players well, and then gives them opportunities.”

“When you see the Packers’ defense jog onto the field Sunday, rest assured they will be guided neither by statistical tendencies nor computer “readouts.” Their game plan will be the work of a man who literally wrote the book on this system, a man who sat at a desk last week with a pen and an bag of multicolored highlighters and wrote down his plan to help win a Super Bowl championship. Based solely on his own knowledge, instincts and a file of reports from every game he has coached, Capers will almost certainly make a call or two that the NFL has never seen.”

  • ESPN’s Sal Palatonio interviews B. J. Raji.  Sounds like the Packers are depending on Raji to dominate as the Steelers are hurting at center:

  • Jake Locker isn’t one of Mel Kiper‘s top 25 NFL prospects:

Nate Solder 6-9 315
Gabe Carimi 6-7 327
Tyron Smith 6-5 280
Anthony Castonzo 6-7 287
Derek Sherrod 6-6 305

One Final Thought

Sam Farmer at the Los Angeles Times quotes Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians on the troubles quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has faced:

“That happens to a lot of these guys, the young kids who come in and have success.  There’s a sense of entitlement. … It happens to all of us. Whether it’s someone who writes a bestseller, you look at yourself different. You feel pretty good about yourself.

“It’s the same thing as a coach. You win some ballgames, you feel pretty good about yourself. It’s different when that success kind of becomes who you are, and you stray away from your family and you roots and everything.

“It takes a punch in the nose to get you back.”