The Case for Drafting a Safety

Dan Pompei makes a pretty good case for making safety a top defensive priority in today’s NFL for Sports on Earth:

“Athletic safeties are becoming weapons in their own right. In fact, a defensive coordinator really can’t be much of a mad scientist unless he has some explosive safeties in his lab. Versatile safeties are the key to a creative defense.

“Last year the Saints chose safety Kenny Vaccaro with the 15th pick in the first round of the draft. Rob Ryan played him all over the field, having him cover the slot receiver, blitz, play linebacker and be the last line of defense. [Former Tamp Bay general manager MarkDominik believes more safeties are blitzing these days, in part because they sometimes are being lined up over the flexed tight end. That can give the safety a short path to the quarterback and a chance at a sack as long as the defense can roll coverage behind him.”

“[Baltimore general manager Ozzie Newsome said,] ‘You need guys who are multi-dimensional with the way the game is changing.'”

Pompei is pushing all of my buttons in this article.  Two weeks ago I would have told you that I wasn’t too thrilled with the idea of the Bears drafting a safety in the first round.  But the more I think about it, the more it becomes apparent to me that if general manager Phil Emery’s guy is there in the early rounds, he’ll go in this direction.

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Need Vs. Best Available? It All Depends.

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune answers your questions:

I am very excited to have [defensive end Jared] Allen in the fold. What do you expect the defensive end rotation to look like? I assume Allen and [Lamarr] Houston are the starters with [Willie] Young and Israel Idonije backing them up. I have much love for Idonije for all his years of service but was really impressed with David Bass last season. Wouldn’t the Bears be better off continuing to develop Bass rather than plugging in the below-average and over-the-hill (if reliable) Idonije? He did nothing for Detroit last season. – Dave M., Portland, Ore.

“The top three ends are clearly Allen, Houston and Young. Bass showed flashes of being a nice young player last season and needs to continue to develop. The Bears have some solid competition for the fourth end position that also includes Cheta Ozougwu as well as Austen Lance and Trevor Scott. Idonije could also figure in the mix inside at tackle and that could be where the Bears look to use him. Bass needs to get better and nothing is going to be handed to him. In a best-case scenario, the Bears have to make a difficult roster cut come September.”

My assumption is that Allen and Young will be the ends in the base nickel defense with Houston at the three technique.  That gets all three on the field at once.  Given the somewhat thin depth at defensive tackle, I think there’s little doubt that the Bears envision Idonije in the rotation there.

“Any chance the Bears look at drafting A.J. McCarron late in the draft to be the quarterback of the future? — @MichaelDownes from Twitter

“You get some varied opinions when it comes to the Alabama product and like a lot of the quarterbacks in this draft he’s a bit of a wild card. But I would be surprised if McCarron is available in the late rounds. Most project him to be a third-round pick with a possibility of sneaking into the second round. The contract the Bears signed [Jay] Cutler to indicates he’s the starter for probably at least the next three seasons so I don’t know if it is time for the Bears to start wondering about their 2017 starter. When you look at offensive positions the team could target in the draft, running back, tight end and wide receiver are greater needs, in my opinion.”

I tend to agree with Biggs here in that I don’t see the Bears drafting a quarterback in the mid-rounds.  If they did, you have to assume that they really liked him and you could reasonably expect him to be the back up in 2015 with a future as a starter.  But that’s not likely and I’m sure they’d rather spend those picks on a player that would see the field more in 2014.

The Bears might still pick up a young quarterback.  Like most general managers, Phil Emery has said that ideally he’d like to draft one every year.  But if they do, I’d be surprised if such a pick didn’t come late in either the sixth or seventh round.  Perhaps they’d even bring in a college free agent.

“The Bears put a lot of work into bolstering the front four (I’ll even give them the front seven if you’re drinking the Kool Aid on a move to linebacker making Shea McClellin better) but they haven’t addressed depth in the secondary. While they might hit on a starter or two in the draft, that porous defensive back unit needs more. What street free agent and/or draftees projected into the latter rounds intrigue you? — Gregory M., Naperville

“They haven’t done a lot for depth at cornerback but they did re-sign starters Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman. Zack Bowman is the one that got away as he went to the Giants. Kelvin Hayden is back in the mix for the nickel cornerback job with Isaiah Frey and Sherrick McManis is primarily viewed as a special teams player. They also signed Ryan Mundy at the outset of free agency and the plan is for him to start, probably at strong safety. You can’t get it all done in free agency and really you don’t want to go that route. The Bears need an infusion of young talent and that will come via the draft. I think they need to look at the secondary in the early rounds of the draft not the latter rounds. A cornerback and a safety are both needs. A street free agent isn’t going to solve any real issues.”

Though depth in the secondary is an issue and I would, indeed, look for the Bears to go in that direction in the early rounds, the situation isn’t as bad as it looks.  For one thing the improvement in the front seven will mean improvement on the back end.

Hayden is a reasonably good first cornerback off the bench with Isaiah Frey moving into his spot at nickel back (if Frey doesn’t win the job outright).  The bigger issue is still at safety where I’m sure the Bears definitely would like to add competition and depth but you could do a lot worse than Craig Steltz as your first backup off the bench there.

“We know the greatest draft needs for the Bears are the secondary and defensive tackle, but what if a Teddy Bridgewater, Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan or even Mike Evans are available at No. 14? Do you pull the trigger and take the best player available or let those guys go and draft for need? — Mike M., Chicago

“It’s great when you hear clubs talk about drafting the ‘best available’ player but in reality that is more spin than anything else. Reality is clubs need to plug holes with top talent at specific positions at the top of the draft. Let’s say safety is the greatest need, at least for the purpose of this discussion. If the Bears have a significantly higher grade on a player at another position, then it’s time for a discussion. But Bridgewater isn’t going to help the team win games in 2014 and the signing of a player like Jared Allen is a clear indication the Bears are hoping to compete for a Super Bowl this year. Look at some of the core players on defense. Allen is 32. Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman are 33. Tim Jennings is 30. Also defensive tackle Jeremiah Ratliff will turn 33 before the season opens and D.J. Williams will be 32. The Bears need to invest high draft picks on defensive talent in order to avoid having to spend big dollars on short-term fixtures via free agency.”

I’m going to disagree but only mildly in that it does, indeed, depend on the specific situation.  For one thing, Mike Evans would help the team win now as he’d be the third wide receiver and on the field for at least half the snaps.

More to the point, in 2005 the Packers didn’t need a quarterback.  But when Aaron Rogers fell to 24th overall, they pulled the trigger.

Case closed.

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What the Addition of Brian De La Puente Tells Us

The Bears surprised me yesterday by adding veteran center Brian de la Puente.  From Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune:

“De la Puente, the Saints’ starting center the last three seasons, agreed to terms Sunday on a one-year contract for the minimum-salary benefit with the understanding he is coming in to play behind starter Roberto Garza, a captain and the leader in the offensive line room.”

There were questions going in to this season at center for the Bears.  The succession plan for Garza, who is 35 years old, wasn’t apparent.  No one knew for sure what the Bears thought of back up Taylor Boggs as the heir apparent and many of us were waiting to see if the Bears drafted another lineman to compete for the job.

De la Puente’s signing was surprising because he’s not exactly young at 29 years old.  However, he’s not old either.  So the question now is whether de la Puente is the a one year fill in who took a minimum salary benefit deal or if he’s the starting center of the future, al be it a future of only a few years.

Pro Football Focus had de la Puente rated as their number six free agent going into the signing period.  He was their number two center on the market behind Alex Mack:

“De La Puente is a good pass-blocking center; in his three seasons as a starter he has never posted a Pass Blocking Efficiency under 98.2 and has given up a total of 46 pressures in 2144 passing snaps. In his best season has a pro, 2012, De La Puente managed to take his pass-blocking skill set and add to it by drastically improving his run blocking. In 2011 and 2013 he put up a poor combined run blocking grade of -8.5, but showed in 2012 what he was capable of by recording a +13.6.

“With De La Puente turning 29 before the season, interested teams will either have to accept the idea that he is simply good pass blocker who struggles in the run game, or bank on him regaining his form from 2012. The team that adds De La Puente to their roster will be getting a reliable player who, in the past three seasons, has not missed any time due to injury.”

It’s possible that both the Bears and de la Puente are hoping that he reclaims his form of 2012 and improves his run blocking again under his old offensive line coach Aaron Kromer.  We may get to see if that happens if he’s needed as the back up this year.  If he does, it will clear up a number of issues.

But the offseason isn’t over yet and what the Bears are thinking still isn’t entirely clear.  The one thing we now know for sure is that the Bears weren’t totally comfortable with Boggs backing up Garza.  The Bears aren’t likely to keep three centers as it is unless the third guy can play guard and Boggs’ future with the team this year is in serious jeopardy.  It remains to be seen what happens to him.  And the Bears may still pick up another younger center.  If they do, we’ll know the answer to Boggs’ future and, even if its just a late round pick, de la Puente will have a tough hurdle to overcome to become the Bears starter in 2015.

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What Will Phil Emery Be Looking For in the Draft? Think Size.

Bears general manager Phil Emery is a tough guy to figure out, especially when it comes to the NFL draft.  Emery has a habit of going his own way.  He sticks to his board and takes the guys he believes in no matter what outside influences might think.  His picks in the first round of his first two NFL drafts, Shea McClellin and Kyle Long, were both taken when conventional wisdom would have indicated that the Bears go in another direction.

So guessing who Emery is going to take this year in the draft is a bit of a exercise in futility.  But we might be able to guess what he’ll be looking for in whoever he chooses.  In this regard, Dan Pompei’s statement for the Bleacher Report was never more true:

“The draft class has a number of prospects who are smaller than ideal. Many of these players will be downgraded significantly by some teams, but not by others, because undersized players need to be scheme fits.”

It’s a decent bet that Emery was one of the general managers that Pompei was thinking about.  When asked at the NFL Combine about what he’s learned from the McClellin experiment, Emery said this:

“In terms of pure defensive ends probably make sure they’re a little bit longer and a little bit heavier.”

When asked about new defensive end Willie Young, once again, Emery emphasized his size and length (6 feet 4, 251 pounds):

“He has 35-inch arms.  He uses that advantage to gain leverage and separation. He has strong hands, a good punch. He’s a good athlete with a lot of upside.”

Its true that Emery was talking about defensive ends.  But the lesson can probably be applied to any position along the defensive line and, with the size of the receivers in the NFC North, you can figure Emery won’t be drafting any smallish cornerbacks.  Wide receiver?  One look at Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery is all you need to make a pretty good guess at Emerythinking in  third option.  He’s also at some point going to be looking for a second tight end who can block to compliment Martellus Bennett and a running back who can run inside in short yardage situations to complement Matt Forte.

With this in mind, let’s take a look at some of the more likely prospects that may be available when the Bears pick and see what they might be thinking.  Bear in mind that this is strictly a judgment in terms of height and weight.  These players may not have the other characteristics Emery might be looking for.  However, we might use such a list as an initial  effort at trimming the field:

Prospects that Don’t Fit:

Aaron Donald, DT – 6”0 3/4”, 285 lb
Darqueze Dennard, CB – 5’10 7/8”, 199 lb
Calvin Pryor, S – 5’11 1/8″, 207 lb
Bradley Robey, CB – 5’11 1/4”, 194 lb

Prospects that Fit:

Mike Evens, WR – 6’4 3/4”, 231 lbs (admittedly highly highly unlikely to still be there)
C.J. Mosely, ILB – 6’2”, 234 lb
Ha Ha Clinton Dix, S – 6’1 3/8”, 208 lb
Eric Ebron, TE – 6’4 3/4”, 250 lb
Timmy Jernigan, DT – 6’1 5/8”, 299 lb
Justin Gilbert, CB – 6’0 1/8”, 202 lb (borderline call)
Ra’Shede Hageman, DT – 6’5 7/8”, 310 lb
Louis Nix, DT – 6’2 3/8”, 331 lb

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Age is in Your Mind

Dan Pompei at Sports on Earth tells this story of Seattle head coach Pete Carroll:

“True story: At the NFL meetings in Orlando, Fla., a couple weeks ago, one coach of Carroll’s vintage stopped by the bar and complained about his hemorrhoids. And then Carroll walked by with his full head of hair feathered back, and his smooth healthy looking skin. He was wearing an untucked button down shirt over well-fitting jeans with sharp loafers, looking nothing like a football coach. Especially an old football coach.

“I asked Carroll how he does it.  ‘I always think something good is about to happen,’ Carroll said. ‘It’s a general way of looking at the world. I’ve never looked at games and challenges like it’s going to go bad, it’s not going to work out. I don’t see it that way. I think that’s really helped. I don’t live in the gloom of what might go wrong. I live in the glow of what could happen that’s good. That’s been the guiding principle.’”

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Why the Bears and Allen Kept Negotiations on the Down Low

Bears general manager Phil Emery discusses the need for secrecy during negotiations with new defensive end Jared Allen.  Via Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune:

“‘It does make a difference on any contract situation,’ Emery said, ‘because you remove the pressure of other situations. So the fact that we were able to do this quietly removed the counter, per se. … Jared felt that we were the right fit and we were going [to] continue through without it getting out in the papers and allowing others to advance in terms of countering during the period where we were trying to come to an agreement.’”

The advantages to the Bears in terms of preventing other teams from making counter offers is obvious.  The advantage to Allen is not.  You’d think that he’d want to drive the price up by allowing other teams to bid.

I can only conclude that Allen was sure that no other teams weren’t going to offer the package that the Bears did and that he was sure Chicago was where he wanted to be.  And it does have the advantage of preventing distractions while trying to get the work done on the contract. Still, you wouldn’t think it would hurt to let other teams think about making a last effort.  All you have to say is “No”.

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The Bears Defense Now Defined: A Little Talent and a Lot of Vision

Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune writes a nice article on the evolution of the Bears defensive scheme.  He describes what coaches around the league are thinking when they consider what a disruptive defense looks like:

“‘Talent is important, but you can schematically try to create match ups,’ Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt said. ‘We try to do it offensively. You never know for sure what you’re going to get.'”

“So what’s the key to that?

“‘If you’re going to change in and out,’ Whisenhunt said, ‘then you’ve got to have the athletic defensive end/linebacker that can do multiple things for you, that has the ability to line up in different spots and create those mismatches.’

“[LamarrHouston and end-turned-linebacker Shea McClellin project into those roles for the Bears.”

Two points.

First, its evident that defensive end Jared Allen was the missing piece a week ago.  All of the coaches that Campbell interviewed said the same thing – you have to get pressure on the quarterback with four men.  That is always going to start with Allen.  Defensive coordinator Mel Tucker can now start with the assumption that offenses will design protections to stop Allen first and he can put together what he will do in each situation depending upon how the offense decides to go about doing that.  Unlike the situation a week ago, Allen is the man that now allows you to close your eyes and see how the defense is going to look.

Second, I can’t stress enough how much good position coaching is going to have to be a part of this defensive overhaul.  For the last decade the Bears have predicated their defense on doing one thing really well.  Everyone knew their role and executed it.  Now players are going to have multiple roles depending on the situation.  Indeed, they may not know what their role is until the offense lines up.

Houston might be a three technique tackle one play, an end the next and a linebacker the one after that.  Shea McClellin will now be adding the role of linebacker when he hasn’t played all that well just as a defensive end for two years now.  Players are going to have to be better prepared now than they have ever been before.

As author Joseph Murray once said, “We go where our vision is.”  The Bears have the flexibility on defense in terms of personnel to do that and they know where to start when putting together their schemes.  Now its up to hard work in a world of pure imagination.

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Brandon Marshall Isn’t Going Anywhere

From ESPN.com:

“When the Chicago Bears restructured Jay Cutler‘s contract to clear cap space, speculation surfaced that it was to enable the Bears to sign All-Pro receiver Brandon Marshall to a long-term extension.

“Instead, Chicago signed free-agent DE Jared Allen to a four-year deal, and Marshall is heading toward the last year of his contract.”

Not so fast my friend.  According to Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune the Bears still have $7.5 million in cap space after the Allen signing.  I don’t know how much you need to sign draft picks but I doubt that it will be anywhere close to that.

Marshall makes it clear in the ESPN article that he has no intension of signing anywhere else.  I can’t imagine the team feels any differently and I can’t think of a better use for the remaining cap space.

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The Buffalo Bills Will Be for Sale

This item was buried in the Chicago Tribune article covering the death of Buffalo owner Ralph Wilson:

“According to the Buffalo News, the team will be placed in a trust, which likely will control the franchise for a minimum of a few years. Eventually, the trust will sell the team, with the proceeds going to Wilson’s estate, the newspaper reported.”

There’s no mention of a commitment to keep the team in Buffalo. Is anyone else thinking about the sound of the “Los Angeles Bills”?

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Bears Have Reason to Hope Wilson Will Develop

Last week I wrote that with the release of wide receiver Earl Bennett, the Bears would be in need of a new third wide receiver. Yesterday at the league meetings head coach Marc Trestman confirmed that wide receiver Marquess Wilson would have the first shot at the new opening with competition likely coming later in the offseason. Via Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune:

“I think he showed that we can work with him and develop him.  He’s got the football intelligence that we’re looking for and the ability to be flexible within the offense. He was consistent. So we’ll see how it goes. We’re not anointing people at this point in time. He’s going to have a chance to compete and be a part of what we do after Alshon [Jeffery] and Brandon (Marshall). We’ll see how it goes. We’ve got a long way to go but we like (Wilson) and we’re excited about him to develop him and work him.”

Wilson is a seventh round pick that hasn’t shown much simply because he’s been playing behind Marshall, Jeffery and Bennett.  But there’s good reason to hope that he’ll be replacing Bennett this season.

Wilson is 6’3”, 194 lb which fits the Bears ideal profile for a wide receiver. Wilson has also been working out with Marshall and Jeffrey at Marshall’s Fit Speed facility in the off-season. If Marshall can bring Wilson along like he did Jeffrey, Wilson will be quite an addition to the starting lineup in 2014.

The Bears need Wilson to develop. As pointed out by Mike Wilkening at profootballtalk.com, Marshall becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season and Jeffrey’s contract is up after 2015. Wilson is only 21 years old and could serve as a young Insurance policy for the loss of either or both. The draft is the lifeblood of any NFL football franchise, and Wilson is a part of that for the Bears. Let’s hope for a productive 2014 for him.

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