The Horizontal Draft Approach and How Teams Don’t Pick the Best Available Player

Posted on April 9, 2013 by Tom Shannon

Armando Salguero at the Miami Herald says that, though all general managers say they are taking the best available player, many are  actually drafting horizontally and not vertically:

“Drafting horizontally basically means the Dolphins want to give themselves space to fill their needs instead of simply picking the player with the highest draft grade.”

“Drafting horizontally, one critic of the format told me last week, is a great way to fool the media and the owner into thinking you’re picking the best available player who coincidently plays a position of need (wink, wink) when what you’re really doing is just filling your greatest needs.”

“The vertical approach simply grades a number of players that are draft eligible one after the other, regardless of position. It is a 300-name totem pole of sorts with the best player in the draft at the top and Mr. Irrelevant at the bottom.

And, theoretically, the selection process takes on a life of its own because as names come off the board, all a team has to do when its turn comes up is pick the next player with the highest grade.

If a team is drafting 12th overall, as the Dolphins are, and the highest player on the board has the No. 6 overall grade, that’s the pick regardless of position or need.

That’s the classic approach. It’s simple. It’s black and white.

The horizontal approach leaves room for more grays.

Teams using this approach stretch every position group horizontally across a board. Left ends, nose tackles, right ends, weak linebackers, strong linebackers, inside linebackers, wide receivers, quarterbacks and so on. (Teams with 4-3 defenses use different position groups as teams running 3-4 looks.)

The Dolphins would then take a small number of players — between 120 and 180, depending on the year — and plug them into their board according to their position.

Along the first line under every position, the club places the name of players that have a first-round grade. So first-round cornerbacks are on the same horizontal line as first-round quarterbacks or running backs or any other position.

Along the second line, the name of every player with a second-round grade is placed under his appropriate position. That’s how a second-round safety can be on the same horizontal line with a second-round quarterback.

And on draft day, when the No.?12 pick comes up — assuming the Dolphins aren’t trading up or down — [Jeff] Ireland will be able to scan horizontally across the first round and spy the handful of players graded at the pick. Those players will be laid out horizontally at their various positions.

The Dolphins GM can then select a name out of that group.

It shouldn’t surprise that the player selected often plays a position of need, because logic and human nature will dictate that picking a quarterback ahead of a cornerback won’t help the team as much in 2012 even if the quarterback is rated higher.”

I’m pretty sure that Salguero is actually simplifying what is, in fact, a very complex process with a lot of blurry edges for every team.  I’d be willing to bet that no team in the NFL drafts vertically in the strictest sense of the word as described above and very few draft strictly horizontally. The NFL Network goes into the draft room of one team every year and, though they don’t give you a good look at it, I’ve never seen a draft board that wasn’t set up by position.  Most probably there’s both a vertical and horizontal arrangement on every board.

They key is to take the best available player that’s going to improve your team.  For some teams that means taking the best player at a position of need (horizontal).  For others it means taking the best player who can improve any position (vertical).  The Dolphins fall closer to the first category.

On the other hand, the Bears almost certainly will fall closer to the latter category this year.  They’ve tried very hard to fill positions of need with free agents in the hopes of leaving themselves free to take almost any player on draft day.  But that doesn’t mean regardless of position.  They aren’t taking a running back in the few rounds because they simply aren’t going to find one who is going to be an upgrade over Matt Forte.  Unless they’re planning on playing a lot more man coverage, they aren’t going to find an upgrade over their two Pro Bowl cornerbacks.  And though quarterback is a little different in that you might draft for the future there, its also almost certainly out, at least for the first round.  But defensive tackle, defensive end, and safety?  These aren’t necessarily positions of need per se.  But I’m betting the Bears wouldn’t hesitate to go in any of those directions.

Personally I prefer the vertical approach.  Success in the league depends upon the ability to find impact players.  Common sense tells you that you are less likely to find one if your hands are tied by only considering a hand full of positions.  But for budget conscious teams like the Packers, and particularly those with lots of needs like the Dolphins, the horizontal approach isn’t just the best way to go.  It’s the only way to go.  Something to consider as we watch the process unfold on April 25.

Posted in Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, NFL Draft | Leave a comment

Bear Played It Safe with D.J. Williams

Posted on April 8, 2013 by Tom Shannon

Well, financially at least.

ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Siefert gives the specifics of D.J. Williams‘ contract:

The contract does not include any guaranteed money. Williams’ base salary is $900,000, and there are two sets of roster bonuses that will pay him $23,437 for every game he is on the 53-man roster and another $23,437 each time he is on the game-day 46-man roster. So if he is active for all 16 games, those roster bonuses would total $750,000.

There is also a $100,000 workout bonus tied to offseason work.

Williams played only seven games last season due to two suspensions.  He  had a DUI and he also failed a mandatory league drug test.   So the Bears were cautious with the contract.  It won’t help them on the field if he has to be released but they won’t be on the hook for any money.

I’d expect they’ll keep on looking pretty hard for more linebacker help in case Williams doesn’t work out.  The draft still might be a good place for that to happen but things have to fall the right way for that to happen.

Posted in Chicago Bears | 3 Comments

Will We See More Zone Blitz from the Bears in 2013?

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Tom Shannon

While reading this interesting article from Andy Benoit at ESPN, on NFL teams and their “pillar needs”, the comments regarding the Cincinnati Bengals and their need for athletic defensive linemen caught me eye:

“A critical component of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s scheme, particularly in his aggressive third-down packages, is the zone blitz.”

“In its simplest terms, a zone blitz is essentially where a back-seven defender rushes and a defensive lineman drops back to replace him in coverage. Defenses, particularly 3-4 units, like it because it can create chaos and confusion without sacrificing bodies in coverage. The reason more 4-3 teams don’t zone blitz is it demands sensational athleticism from the defensive linemen. They must be able to explode off the ball, redirect into a backpedal, change directions laterally and move well in space. The more linemen a team has who can do this, the more diverse its zone blitz packages can be. Zimmer’s Bengals are diverse enough to use overload zone blitzes, meaning multiple linemen drop back.”

Most Bears fans who were paying attention noticed that rookie defensive lineman Shea McClellin dropped into coverage on occasion last year.  It didn’t happen often because defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli was a Tampa-2 guy at heart and he really believed in staying with this basic alignment as much as possible (though to his credit he did recognize and act upon the need to mix it up on occasion).

In any case, though he was undersized for a defensive end, McClellin is very athletic.  So much so that many writers still think he’s going to end up at linebacker (I don’t agree).

New defensive coordinator Mel Tucker has stated that he’ll keep the base 4-3 scheme the same for the Bears with some tweeks.  I’m starting to wonder if one of those tweeks is going to include the use of McClellin a lot more in coverage in zone blitz situations.  It should be interesting to watch.

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The Kansas City Chiefs Make a Special Announcement

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Tom Shannon

The Sports Pickle “reports” that one team has made a progressive announcement:

The Kansas City Chiefs bravely stepped forward today and announced they are gay, becoming the first team in major professional sports to come out as homosexual.

I can’t believe they beat the Forty-niners to the punch.

Posted in Entertainment, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers | Leave a comment

Nawrocki Evaluates the Bears 2012 Draft

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Tom Shannon

Nolan Nawrocki at Pro Football Weekly reviews the Bears 2012 draft:

“Far from a great debut for GM Phil Emery’s first draft class, but it’s too soon to call it a failure.”

The pick that kills this draft? Brandon Hardin in the third round. Your third rounder is supposed to compete to start not be a back up limited by injury.

Having said that, as Nawrocki points out, its a little early to evaluate this draft.  I think a lot of these picks like first rounder Shea McClellin were based upon anticipated future development.  Both he and second rounder Alshon Jeffery needed to spend some time in the weight room and that wasn’t going to happen until this offseason.

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Dan Pompei’s Mock Draft Has the Bears in a Good Position

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Tom Shannon

Dan Pompei‘s mock draft at the Chicago Tribune works out well for the Bears:

20. Bears: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia. If he makes it this far, Ogletree seems like an easy pick. A trade down remains a viable possibility, as the Bears have flexibility as far as needs.

This would be an outstanding scenario for the Bears.  If Ogletree fell right into their laps like this, it would be a steal.

Fortunately GM Phil Emery has done an outstanding job of putting the Bears into a position where he can take the best player available with few exceptions (for instance at running back where he’s highly unlikely to find a starter better than Matt Forte).  Whoever falls to them, its almost certainly going to be a good pick.

Posted in Chicago Bears, NFL Draft | 1 Comment

Nolan Nawrocki Rips Geno Smith

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Tom Shannon

It the time of year when everyone, including me, starts paying more attention to player scouting reports and this one by Nolan Nawrocki at Pro Football Weekly reads like a bad movie review:

Started the season red-hot with the help of two playmaking receivers and created a national stir generating a lot of overexcitement in the scouting community. Quickly came down to earth after Kansas State disguised coverages and brought pressure he could not handle and he finished dropping six of his final eight games. A cross between Akili Smith and Aaron Brooks, Smith is a gimmick, overhyped product of the system lacking the football savvy, work habits and focus to cement a starting job and could drain energy from a QB room. Will be overdrafted and struggle to produce against NFL defensive complexities.

In fairness, Dan Pompei at The National Football Post responds:

Many do not agree with Nolan Nawrocki’s sources on Geno Smith… The closest I heard was a couple scouts suspect Smith has a little con in him, and they find him to be a little hard to read.”

Regardless it sound like he’s going to be a bit of a risk and a pick more controversial than usual even for a quarterback.

EDIT:  I seemed to remember Nawrocki doing something like this in the past.  Sure enough, as I looked back to previous blog entries, I found that Nawrocki posted a similar rip job on QB Cam Newton in 2011 that generated quite a bit of controversy.

It doesn’t necessarily mean that the evaluation isn’t honest but the strong language smells like a way to get more people (like me) to visit the PFW website.

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A Bit of a Reboot

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Tom Shannon

I took some time off from writing this blog in part because its a slow time for the NFL and in part because I wanted to think about how I was writing it.

I have a suspicion that people didn’t like reading the articles because they were too long.  As a result, I’m trying to cut down on the length, posting shorter, quick hit articles that highlight some of the things I’ve found.  Hopefully this will make the blog easier to read 1) because it won’t require any kind of time commitment to punch the link and quickly read the article and 2) because you’ll be able to quickly choose the article you are interested in based on the title without wading through a bunch of stuff you really don’t care than much about.

There may be another interruption at some point because I’m thinking of moving the blog to my own server.  But that won’t happen until this summer at the earliest.

Drop me a line and let me know what you think.

Posted in Chicago Bears | 1 Comment

Mike Singletary Gets HIs Due and Other Points of View

Posted on February 10, 2013 by Tom Shannon

Bears

“‘Football players win football games,’ Mayock said. ‘If you’re in the first round … and you’ve got a guard that is rated as the 11th-best player in the country and you are at 20 and you’ve got a tackle that is rated as the 27th-best player in the country, I am taking the guard every single time. He is a better football player.

“‘I understand the whole thing about you can get linebackers later and you can get running backs later and you can get guards later. I get all that stuff, and I do value corners and left tackles. But at the end of the day, you better get good football players, especially in the first round.

“‘I don’t care as much at that point what position he plays. Just get me an All-Pro. If I am 20 and I am drafting an All-Pro, nobody will ever criticize that.'”

“If the Bears sign or draft a left tackle, could J’Marcus Webb be moved to guard? It seems to me that he doesn’t have the quickness to play outside but he could be a good run-blocker with his size. — Dave Andre, Berwyn

“Can’t see that, Dave. Webb has prototypical size for a tackle. His arms are too long for guard. And he sometimes doesn’t bend as well as he should and loses leverage. If Webb isn’t a tackle, he isn’t anything.”

“Out of curiosity, how many of the Bears’ offensive linemen could start on other teams? Would any of them rank in the top 10-15 at their respective positions? — epagnucc@yahoo.com

“Lance Louis could start on a lot of teams and would, in my opinion, rank in the top 10-to-15 right guards in the league. Roberto Garza could start on a number of teams. On a good day, J’Marcus Webb could start on a number of teams. The problem is he doesn’t always have a good day. If Gabe Carimi can get his strength and confidence back, he can start on a number of teams. The Bears’ line might not be quite as bleak as it appears. But it still needs some upgrades.”

Pompei’s answer to this last question is interesting. First, I totally agree with it. But it presents a problem that has been bothering me. If the line is OK at so many positions, where do you start?

Realistically I think Lance Louis is about as good at a right guard as you’re going to get. And I do think Carimi was hurt last year and that he could still be a good, solid tackle. Garza’s play could have been better but its really not an issue (yet).

I think most of us agree that left tackle is an issue. If J’Marcus Webb isn’t consistent by now he’s never going to be. But left tackles don’t grow on trees and you may not be able to acquire anyone any better, as exemplified by this answer from Pompei:

“Do you see any of the three best free agent tackles — Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Brendan Albert — hitting free agency without their club placing the franchise tag on them? Should the Bears pursue one of these three? — Alex Navarro, El Paso, Tex.

“Long has the best chance of hitting free agency. Clady has virtually no chance. Albert probably won’t become a free agent, but his situation is a little hard to read because the Chiefs have a new general manager and head coach. But it would be foolish to let a good left tackle walk. I would say the Bears should pursue Long if they could get him at a reasonable price. And they probably can’t. Long has not played up to his reputation the last couple of years, which explains why the Dolphins would consider allowing him to leave.”

The only position Pompei omitted was left guard and realistically that’s a position that you could upgrade, especially if you are willing to spend a first round pick on one (which, unlike some people, I believe you should feel free to do – see Mayock’s comment above). That could help a lot. But is simply replacing the left guard really going to be enough to fix such a thoroughly criticized an offensive line?

  • Biggs reviews the quarterback position and what needs to be done in the offseason. While most of the talk has been about Cutler, its worth noting that the backup positions are also up in the air:

“[Jason] Campbell had a wealth of experience when he filled in for [Jay] Cutler in a difficult spot on the road at San Francisco on Nov. 18. He was sacked six times under an onslaught of pressure and basically just completed check-down passes. Paying big money to a backup quarterback is something [general manager Phil] Emery has to reconsider with a relatively tight cap situation. [Josh] McCown was added as a security blanket for the final seven weeks and he could always return in that role. Undrafted rookie free agent Matt Blanchard has been signed to a reserve/futures contract. It seems like every team has a goal of drafting a developmental quarterback annually but with only five picks that could be difficult for Emery to justify. What he does need to do is formulate a plan for a No. 2.”

“It should mean a lot more versatile uses for the running backs and more action in the passing game. To get the backs out in the pattern, though, there will need to be an upgrade on the offensive line so they’re not needed to protect the quarterback as regularly. Look for [Matt] Forte to be happy with his role. Veteran Skip Peete will take over as the position coach.”

“I heard that under the new CBA, players that are on the PUP list for an entire year do not lose that year from their contract, meaning they add another year to their original contract. Is this true? Do we still have Johnny Knox under contract? — Eric Weil, Downers Grove

“When a player is on the reserve/physically unable to perform list for an entire season, his contract rolls over to the following year. So Knox still is under contract with the Bears.”

“[Brian Urlacher and [Lance] Briggs have been the most dynamic performers at the same position for the Bears since Dan Hampton, Richard Dent and Steve McMichael combined on the defensive line in the 1980’s. The run could be over.”

I’ve been saying that for years. It hasn’t been true yet.

But its eventually going to be…

  • I’m having a very difficult time understanding Devin Hester. He’s clearly unhappy (via Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune). What isn’t clear is why. He expresses his frustration about losing touches on offense, then says that he’d consider giving up his role on offense all together. And he still hasn’t given a clear explanation about why he doesn’t want to be a Bear. If its because former head coach Lovie Smith is gone, I don’t see how demanding a trade is going to help that.

Hester has never been all that good at expressing himself. But, honestly, I’m starting to question his stability.

 

“Bears, 55, 49ers 24, Ravens 3: This time, the Bears solve that Kaepernick guy, and then Ray Lewis gets arrested for violating noise laws.”

“The fallout from this list might be more interesting if Cutler cared about his image and reputation. But he seems to dislike America right back, and when you think about it, that’s probably a more efficient way to go. Devote your time and energy to things that matter.

“Craving public adoration is soulless. It also can be exhausting, first seeking out that kind of love, and then working to maintain it. Hate, though, means never having to say you’re sorry.”

Elsewhere

  • I thought this Audible from Pro Football Weekly made an interesting point:

“Did you see old-man (Tom) Brady? Time is catching up to him fast. Remember the fourth down at the end of (the AFC Championship) game — he could not outrun a nose tackle (Haloti Ngata). Then when he slid, he put his leg up in the air to protect his body. He looked (soft). I hate to see him go down like this, but he is playing soft right now. I thought the whole team followed his lead. They got punched in the mouth in the second half, and they did not respond. They lost their identity.”

  • And while we’re at it, here’s another Audible that might interest Bears fans:

“I was down on (San Diego State TE) Gavin Escobar as a blocker after watching the Boise game — he flashed and didn’t work his feet. Then I ended up watching three more and thought he did a lot better. He’s an interesting guy, especially with the way this league is trending.”

“One of the reasons Rod Marinelli was such an important hire for the Cowboys is he can help out 72-year old defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. Marinelli was hired to coach the defensive line, but some familiar with the situation would not be surprised if Marinelli becomes the de facto defensive coordinator. Many in the business believe Kiffin is not the coach he used to be.”

“The biggest problem with the Chiefs’ offense was it was predictable and basic. Defensive coordinators were having a field day manipulating the offense into checking into exactly what they hoped for. As one AFC defensive coordinator put it, ‘I felt sorry for the Chiefs offensive players. They had no chance. We could make them check into max protect every time.'”

  • Commissioner Roger Goodell on drug testing:

“‘I believe HGH testing will happen before the 2013 NFL season,’ Goodell said. ‘It’s the right thing to do for the players and it’s the right thing to do to send a message to everyone else in sports. The science is there. We need to get to that agreement.”

I’ll believe it when I see it because I can’t imagine the players will allow it unless its diluted to the point that its meaningless. If real testing is done where the maximum blood level is at a reasonable amount, it will change the game forever.

No way it happens.

  • Rick Morrissey at the Chicago Sun-Times on Ray Lewis and his role in the double murder 13 years ago:

“The media’s role in telling his story, especially TV’s mythmaking, is an embarrassment. Without the deaths being mentioned in the narrative, you’re writing fantasy. It’s like writing about the New World explorers and conveniently forgetting the pesky raping, murdering and pillaging.

“Lewis is smart, the same way Lance Armstrong is. He knows that for every person who questions him, there are 50 who want to believe in his story, and that it’s only a matter of time before the many sweep away the few. It’s how we ended up with the gooey prose that came out of the Ravens-Broncos playoff game, when the postgame handshake between Lewis and Peyton Manning was treated like something drawn by Norman Rockwell.”

Like Morrissey, this behavior by fans and the media used to worry me. It doesn’t anymore because I’ve learned that fans will shamelessly root for almost any athlete if it means helping the team win. But, as happened with Scotty Pippin with the Bulls and Sammy Sosa with the Cubs, once an athlete retires, an uncomfortable feeling sets in and suddenly people don’t want these guys around. The guess here is that ESPN, who is reportedly hiring Lewis to do commentary after the game when he retires, is about to find that out.

  • From Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times:

“The NFL Players Association released a health and safety survey Thursday in which 78 percent of players polled said they didn’t trust their team’s medical staff.

“Additionally, only 43 percent of respondents, who represented all 32 teams, rated team training staffs as ‘good.'”

“Moss’ combination of speed, length and ability to ‘high point’ the ball made him the best deep threat of his generation … but not the greatest all-around receiver in history.”

Pompei is, of course, correct. However in Moss’s defense, for his first three years with the Vikings, he was, indeed, the greatest receiver I’ve ever seen. Though Rice is statistically the best over an entire career and what Brandon Marshall did this year for the Bears absolutely astounded me, no one has ever come close to Moss as a deep threat over that time period.

 

One Final Thought

Pompei writes a nice column about the influence former Bears linebacker Mike Singletary had on Lewis and 49ers tightend Vernon Davis.

I didn’t feel good about the way that Singletary’s candidacy for the Bears head coaching job was treated by some in the media and many of the fans. Like other Bears greats who have gone on to be good head coaches elsewhere and not for the Bears, Singletary was the wrong guy in the wrong spot for the position. But I’m certain he’ll make a very good head coach when someone gives him another chance. I hope that time comes soon. In the mean time, its nice to see this article giving him his due.

Posted in Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Points of View, San Francisco 49ers | Leave a comment

The Smallest Actions Are the Most Revealing

Posted on February 3, 2013 by Tom Shannon

Jared S. Hopkins catches up with Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall in a little article for the Chicago Tribune. Marshall’s response to a question about setting franchise records for receptions and yards was interesting:

“‘It was OK,’ he said. ‘My No. 1 goal (is) to be in the community. So all the accolades and all the statistics — I know it and keep up with it and that’s good — but this is the No. 1 reason of being in Chicago … to make a difference, make a huge impact. If that’s on the football field Sunday sometimes, bringing joy, that’s OK. But the stuff that lasts forever (are) the things you do like today.'”

What “stuff” might that be? The article doesn’t say but what follows is a guess.

This report read like a simple update on Marshall’s offseason but I thought it was interesting because, as some might recall, Hopkins wrote the somewhat controversial bio piece on Marshall’s background in June last year. Marshall wasn’t too happy about the slant of the article but apparently he decided to talk to Hopkins and bury the hatchet.

That might seem like a minor thing but to me its not. Hopkins isn’t a beat reporter.   As far as I can tell he’s not associated with covering the team at all.  Marshall never had to speak to him again. But he must have contacted him specifically to talk to him and he must have done it knowing that there was nothing to be gained other than to make peace with another human being.

This simple action speaks more to Marshall’s real character that any action he has ever taken as a Bear. Can anyone reading this ever imagine Brian Urlacher doing such a thing?

Yes. I’m definitely impressed.

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