Bear(ing) the News – A Chicago Bears Blog

Filtering through the media reports and videos associated with the draft, the frequency with which Bears GM Phil Emery refers to his background as Navy’s strength and conditioning coach interests me.  For instance, this clip from an Emery press conference where he mentions getting inside information on TE Evan Rodriguez from his contacts with the Tennessee and Temple strength and conditioning coaches (at 2:55 and at 3:19, respectively) is a good example of what I’m talking about:

But perhaps even more interesting are subtle comments from evaluators outside the Bears organization on the players Emery selected.  For instance there’s this almost off-hand reference from Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune in relation to new Bears DE Shea McClellin:

“An AFC college scouting director said when the other pass rushers stripped down to their skivvies at the Senior Bowl weigh in, it was clear McClellin did not have the same kind of body.”

And McClellin wasn’t the only one whose body got some attention.  Pompei relates this factoid when writing about new Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery:

“He played at 232 pounds for South Carolina. He got down to 216 at the NFL scouting combine, but looked soft according to scouts.”

I have to believe that Phil Emery took one look at Jeffery and saw him through the eyes of a strength and conditioning coach.  Where other scouts saw Jeffery as being “soft”, Emery undoubtedly saw “potential for improvement” along with a corresponding projection in performance.  Its probably no coincidence that Jeffery was the first Bears signing after the draft (Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times).  Both the Bears and Jeffery’s agent Eugene Parker undoubtedly want to get him into a professional lifting regime with a proper diet as soon as possible (Brad Biggs, Chicago Tribune).

The same view point undoubtedly affected Emery’s impression of McClellin.  In a sport where college safeties can become NFL linebackers, its doubtful that Emery looked at McClellin and just saw a guy who “did not have the same kind of body”.  The guess here is that he saw a guy who could look like Brian Urlacher a year down the road.  If you are a Bears fan, that could only mean good things both now and in the future as we watch how Emery runs the organization.

Former NFL tackle Seth Payne said a mouth full in 140 characters Friday:

“Seth Payne (@SethPayneTrain)
“4/27/12 7:05 PM
“Alshon Jeffrey is big enough for Cutler to see through his earhole as he’s laying on the ground with two defenders on top of him.”

Most Bear fans can appreciate the sentiment.

Why didn’t the Bears take an offensive lineman in the draft?  Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune tries to explain:

“They ended up not selected an offensive lineman or a defensive tackle because of the way the draft broke. The Bears took players at other positions who were graded higher, which is the way you are supposed to do it.”

Indeed, that is the way you are supposed to do it.  But fans weren’t the only ones who were left wondering if that matched reality.  Tribune writer David Haugh also tried to puzzle through the way the Bears handled the draft:

“I asked [GM Phil] Emery if selecting [Shea] McClellin meant the Bears considered defensive end a bigger need than the offensive line — my interpretation.

“’No, it just says that player was the highest-rated player among the seven (players the Bears targeted),’ Emery said.”

And the Tribune’s Dan McNeil seemed to be just as flummoxed as he gets to the heart of the matter:

“I wanted a big guy Thursday night when Emery made the 19th selection in the first round, but I wanted one whose jersey number begins with a 6 or a 7. Stanford’s David DeCastro, the highest rated guard in the draft, was still on the board. Iowa tackle Riley Reiff also was waiting to hear his name called.”

I can understand not taking Riley Reiff.  He was projected to go high in this draft but you could argue he was overrated as one of the few potential left tackles.  But David DeCastro is a completely different story.

DeCastro is considered by some to be the best offensive lineman to appear in years.  He’s certainly considered to be the best guard in at least the last 10 drafts.  Whatever the real reason why DeCastro isn’t a Bear, its going to tell you a lot about Phil Emery and the way he handles the draft.

I have two potential explanations for this.  Both disturb me.

Emery had a plan going in – not a bad thing.  He knew that defensive linemen were the strength of the draft and figured that there most likely would be a number good ones available when the Bears picked.  He had his list of potential picks and he was glad to go down it and take the best defensive lineman he could get.  There’s just one problem:  things don’t always go as planned.

The Bears picked at #19 and there was a serious run on defensive linemen in front of them.  Six defensive ends and tackles went starting with the Chiefs at #11 and ending with the Chargers at #18.  This had two effects – a) it depleted Emery’s list and b) it caused DeCastro to fall into their laps.  Instead of grabbing DeCastro to provide a huge upgrade at a position of – albeit lesser – need (as, for instance, the Lions would have done), Emery chose to stick with the plan.  He took his pass rushing defensive end instead of the best player available.  That’s worrisome.

The second potential reason is even more problematic.  All of Emery’s picks in rounds one through seven were at high impact positions.  Emery’s main goal was to get weapons – and he did that.  He got pass rush, he got receiver, he got speedy defensive backs.  He’s said over and over again that he wants players who show up on film.  He got them.

The problem?  Guard isn’t a flashy position that is going to stick out as you watch game tape and you have to wonder if Emery may have undervalued DeCastro because of that.  Even worse, he may have wanted the defensive end because he wanted his first draft pick to make a statement.  And he wanted that statement to come in the form of sacks not in the form of a guy who would labor for ten years in an unheralded, blue collar interior protection role.

If Emery’s pride got in the way of taking DeCastro, Bear fans might be in for a rough ride.

In any case, my read is that Phil Emery took the guys he had in mind going into this draft rather than adjusting his thinking on the fly and letting the draft come to him.  Shea McClellin may well turn out to be a very good player.  But over time, this is a method that most scouts and general managers will tell you is not the way to play the game.  Hopefully Jay Cutler won’t have to wait and see if that’s true through his ear hole.

Bears quarterback Jay Cutler spent much of his first three years with the Bears worried about the lack of big receivers.  It appears that someone is finally listening.

In the second round Friday night the Bears traded up to claim WR Alshon Jeffery and followed that up with TE Evan Rodriguez in the fourth.

Cutler once described WR Devin Hester as “not really a back shoulder or jump-up-and-get-it [guy].”  He didn’t say it but he was probably thinking of former Broncos and now current Bears WR Brandon Marshall when he made the statement.  He definitely won’t be saying it about Jeffery who was described by the Chicago Tribune as a “post-up” WR.  GM Phil Emery called him the best wide receiver in the draft at adjusting to the ball:

He should be a hand full as long as he keeps his weight under control.  Dan Pompei at the Tribune comments:

“With hops like that, 33-inch arms and a 6-foot-3 frame, Jeffery can be a matchup nightmare. He can catch the ball away from his body, so he takes advantage of his length and explosion. As long as his belly isn’t lined up offsides, Jeffery can force coverage adjustments.

“It’s difficult for NFL secondaries to match up with one big receiver. It’s almost impossible for them to match up with two. The Bears now have two — Jeffery and Brandon Marshall.”

Indeed, if one were to pick a current NFL player that Jeffery is most like, its Marshall.

Rodriguez will will help Cutler in a more subtle way.  He will stretch the field as a vertical tight end.  Emery comments:

The Rodriguez pick has offensive coordinator Mike Tice written all over it.  Tice, who used the tight end to effect as the head coach of the Vikings, would have never settled for a receiving tight end who couldn’t block like Greg Olsen.  Instead the Bears found him a guy who can catch the ball but who, they hope, will be a good enough blocker to force defenses to respect the run by staying in thier base scheme.  If that’s true, he’s going to be a great asset as another big target while helping the passing offense indirectly by improving the running game.

As he stated in the Alshon Jeffery clip above, Emery’s draft partly aimed to be about adding offensive weapons.  Somewhere Jay Cutler is smiling.

One of the buzz words commonly used when describing prospects during last year’s draft was “scheme versatile”.  I didn’t hear it once yesterday but if I did, it would have described the first half of the Bears draft reasonably well.

The Bears started the draft by taking Boise St. linebacker Shea McClellin.  And “versatility” was the word McClellin used when comparing himself to Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel:

In fact, it was suggested (not by the Bears) that McClellin might find his way onto the field as a strong-side linebacker on first down while using him as a rush defensive end on passing downs.  He could eventually even be a replacement for Brian Urlacher at middle linebacker down the road.

In any case, New England was on a lot of people’s minds on Thursday as it was rumored that they were interested in McClellin and might have even moved up to get him.  Via Sean Jensen at the Chicago Sun-Times:

“That versatility is one of his greatest assets, the reason 3-4 teams such as the New England ­Patriots and Green Bay Packers were among those intrigued by him, the reason why he skyrocketed the last couple months from a potential third-rounder to a first-rounder.”

Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune also noted this, possibly thinking that Lovie Smith may be replaced after next year:

“There is a hidden advantage with McClellin. If the Bears change their defensive scheme, he will adapt.

“He will fit in almost any defense. You can’t say that about many defenders.

“In the pre-draft process, he was linked most often to teams such as the Packers and Patriots, who could have used him as an outside linebacker in a three-man front. When Emery was with the Chiefs, he evaluated McClellin as an outside linebacker for a 3-4. At the Senior Bowl, most of his work came as an outside linebacker.”

Flexibility was also apparently on the Bears’ mind when it came time to make their third round pick.  They took Brandon Hardin, a big hitting player who the Bears apparently have in mind for strong safety.  But unlike the ones the Bears already have, Hardin was also known as a reasonably good cover corner for his size in college.  That means they might very well put Hardin to covering pass catching tight ends:

So in Hardin’s case, the magic word comes directly from Mark Potash at the Sun-Times:

“Like 2011 rookies Chris Conte and Dom DeCicco, Hardin, at his size, is a hybrid-type player with versatility the Bears are looking for under Emery.”

Its not surprising that the word “versatility” would come into play when it comes to teams like New England who are known to value it and know how to use it.  But it isn’t ordinarily connected to head coach Lovie Smith’s defense.  However it may be now and New England might be indirectly responsible for the change.

Most of Smith’s years with the Bears have been characterized by the cover two defense.  Smith’s attitude was, “We’re going to do what we do and we’re going to do it well.”  Then in November 2010 the Bears played New England at home and got whipped 36-7.  WR Wes Welker burned the Bears over and over again as New England moved him around and created mismatches against a zone defense that simply couldn’t handle him.

That game may have been a turning point for Smith.  The only way to beat teams like the Patriots is to match up with them in a man-to-man defense.  Smith eventually realized that and tried to do it but his personnel was drafted to play the cover two.  It became obvious that if he wanted the team to compete at an elite level, they were going to have to do at least a passable job of changing things up.  Enter 2011 where the Bears began to effectively disguise coverages and play more man-to-man defense.

But if the Bears are going to excel, they need to do more than switch up coverages.  They need to acquire personnel who can play effectively in multiple defenses and schemes.  They aren’t there yet but we may look back at the 2012 draft as having been the first step towards doing that.

What to do in the NFL draft.  There are as many opinions as there are people and sports writers are no exception.  For instance, Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune indicates that he thinks the Bears should seriously consider trading down in the 2012 NFL draft:

“The way I see it, this draft isn’t about acquiring one player who can push the Bears over the top. It’s about acquiring a number of players who can help establish a foundation for the future.”

On the other hand, Brad Biggs, also at the Tribune has a slightly different point of view:

“It’s rare to find elite talent with the 19th overall pick, but the Bears have such needs that they can draft a defender at any position and make a sound case for doing so. The same thing can be said on offense for any position except quarterback and running back.”

“What matters is Emery hits with his picks. The Bears struggled drafting and developing players under [former GM Jerry] Angelo, an issue for the coaching staff too. They must succeed now to build a foundation. You can argue names and positions between now and training camp. The bottom line is Emery must find impact performers.”

No doubt both men are right.  As Pompei indicates, the Bears should draft as many solid prospects as they can.  But I agree more with Biggs in that the goal with each pick should be that he be an impact player.  I would under no circumstances trade down if I thought there was even the smallest chance that the guy I ended up with might not be one.

Biggs indicates that the Bears have narrowed down the possibilities for their first round pick, the 19^th overall, to seven prospects.  They will likely trade down if either:

A) there are multiple players on that list still on the board when their turn comes or
B) none of the prospects on the list are on the board when their turn comes

So who the prospects on that list are is the real issue.  I have, therefore, decided to make my best guess.  To do so I have used evaluations from draft sites around the Internet (NOT my own).  I have primarily relied upon those of Pro Football Weekly and Scouts Inc.  I then took a guess as to what characteristics GM Phil Emery was looking for based upon what he has told us about his evaluation process:

1.  He’s emphasized that players need to show up on tape.
2.  He’s said that the days where a player will be red shirted for a year while he develops are over.  Emery subscribes to the New England system where rookies are expected to compete to start from day one.
3.  He’s not afraid of players with off the field issues.
4.  He wants the player who will “get us there the fastest”.
5.  He doesn’t want players who might be good but are physically limited to a low ceiling

Looking down the list of players who might realistically fall to the Bears, it was fairly easy to narrow it down to about 12 players.  After that things got really tough.  Based upon the list of characteristics above you’ll find that I generally:

a)  emphasized production in college above all else
b)  didn’t worry too much about character concerns unless they were major
c)  did worry more than most about durability concerns, especially concussions (e.g. Shea McClellin)
d)  looked for at least above average measurables.

Here is my best guess for who makes the cut, who doesn’t and why:

The seven players on the list:
Luke Kuechly, LB – he’s tough, competitive, he was productive in college, no injury concerns.  There’s some question about whether the Bears would have eliminated him simply because he’s so unlikely to still be on the board.
Stephon Gilmore, CB – he’s competitive, durable, and he was also productive
Riley Reiff, OT – also tough and competitive.  He was also durable.  You might ask for better measurables and there was one odd off the field incident with a police chase.
Courtney Upshaw, DE – Upshaw has some mild character concerns and apparently he might not be the sharpest knife in drawer.  His measurables are average.  But he’s tough, competitive and a hard worker and its hard to argue with his production.
Melvin Ingram, DE – playmaker with good production and average measurables.  Similar to Kuechly, he may not be on the list because the Bears may figure him to be long gone.
Chandler Jones, DE – tough with good production.  Maybe some durability concerns.
Dont’a Hightower, LB – tough, competitive and instinctive, some durability concerns.

Players that didn’t make the cut but could very easily be on the list:
Whitney Mercilus, DE – this was by far the toughest decision.  Many will put him on the list over both Upshaw and Jones and with good reason.  I didn’t only because he was a one year wonder but it was a very good year.  If you figure that Kuechly and Ingram aren’t realistic possibilities, Mercilus is the first name you add back.
Michael Floyd, WR – another tough cut.  He’s got some character concerns and he was apparently suspended from the team at one point.  His production in college was only above average but he’s a playmaker.
Michael Brockers, DT  – a REALLY tough cut.  Brockers is a just bit of an underachiever and I’m guessing that’s going to be a bigger issue with Emery than with most GMs and scouts.  H’e drake a pretty good penetrating three technique tackle in Lovie Smith‘s defense.
Cordy Glenn, OT – the Bears could use offensive line help and Glenn is the type of massive player Mike Tice might favor.  But according to PFW he might be lacking a bit in mental acuity.  He might not be a good fit because the Bears may not want to go with the right tackle/guard type in the first round.
David Decastro, OG – frankly I only took him off because he’s a guard and the Bears really have a glut at the position.  They may figure that he’ll go well before their pick anyway.  Most would agree that he’d be good value at 19, though, and you’d get no criticism from me if they took him as the best player available.
Mark Barron, S – some durability concerns.  He’ll probably be gone by the time the Bears pick anyway.  Tough cut.

Occasionally connected with the Bears but did not make the cut:
Nick Perry, DE  – PFW has him as a second rounder and though you’ll find him with the Bears in some mock drafts, he’s probably a bit of a reach that the Bears are unlikely to have to make.
Jonathan Martin, OT – strength deficient
Mike Adams, OT – very talented but very inconsistent.  PFW has him as a third rounder.
Quinton Couples, DE – classic underachiver
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB – mild medical/durability concerns, character concerns
Dontari Poe, DT – underachiver and really more of a 3-4 nose tackle.  He’ll probably go high but not to the Bears.
Shea McClellin, LB – durability concerns.  There are reports that he’s had three concussions (though he disputes this).
Janoris Jenkins – major off field issues.  This probably won’t scare of off the Bears if he free falls to them in the second round but that’s unlikely.
Stephen Hill, WR – underachiver, work ethic concerns.    Probably a reach at 19 overall.
Peter Konz, C – medical/durability concerns.  Probably a reach at 19 overall.