Head-Scratcher? And Other Points of View.

Bears

  • According the Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune the Bears signed free agent guard Vlad Ducasse. Ducasse was drafted in the second round in 2010 by the Jets and played well but has struggled ever since. He shows flashes of ability but this is one of those signings where you wonder if the team wasn’t better off with Eben Britton. Perhaps the Bears believe Britton has topped out and that Ducasse has more potential if they can find a way to bring it out. In that respect, he’s a bit of a boom or bust signing. At 6-5, 326 pounds he’s at least got the look of a road grader that might come in handy in a run first offense.

    John Mullin at csnchicago.com thinks the signs point to Kyle Long moving to left tackle in part because the Bears have apparently been looking strictly for help on the interior line in free agency. I tend to agree.

  • Marc Sessler at nfl.com on Bears left guard Matt Slauson‘s comment that Jay Cutler can be “every bit of a Tom Brady, a Peyton Manning, an Aaron Rodgers“:

    “Where do we begin? Our friend Slauson has boarded a rocket ship into the bizarre, taking us to new frontiers of insane offseason hype.”

  • Michael C. Wright at ESPN.com goes over the Bears draft options at wide receiver:

    “In the debate between [Amari] Cooper and former West Virginia receiver Kevin White, coaches seem to prefer the former, while scouts tend to give the edge to the latter. That’s primarily because coaches view players with an eye toward them helping right away, while scouts take more of a long-term perspective.”

    This was a funny statement only because my experience is exactly the opposite. Coaches tend to like the physically gifted, less developed prospects (like Johnny Manziel) because they think they can coach anyone with the necessary physical skills to be a star. Scouts, on the other hand, tend to go with the Teddy Bridgewaters of the world. IMO they also have a bad habit of being right. Anyway, Wright goes on to quote Cooper:

    “You don’t want to give the defensive back any signals about what route you’re going to run. Every time I run a route, I try to make it seem like I’m running a different route than I’m actually running so I can get open.”

    If the Bears go in this direction, they certainly have an interesting choice. White is both bigger and faster but Cooper has the look of a football player. Which choice he makes (if available) may tell us something about Bears general manager Ryan Pace.

  • The Bears attended a private workout by Northwestern safety Ibraheim Campbell. Campbell had four forced fumbles in 2014, an unusually high, Charles Tillman-like number. Via Adam L. Jahns at the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • How do you beat Aaron Rogers and the Packers in the NFC North? Probably the same way that Houston is trying to beat Andrew Luck and the Colts in the AFC South. From Zak Keefer at the Indianapolis Star.
  • Kevin Fishbain at chicagofootball.com points out the Bears need for a tightend:

    “The Bears were interested in Virgil Green, who re-signed with the Broncos, and [offensive coordinator Adam] Gase used two tight ends a decent amount in Denver’s offense the past two seasons. It’s a weak tight end draft, and there’s not much left on the free-agent market, yet this is a position group that should grow in the coming months.”

    The Bears are going to want the option of using two tight ends in a run-based offense. I’d be surprised if they didn’t find one that could block somewhere. The draft actually is a viable possibility here if all you want is someone who can block and catch a ball only every occasional blue moon.

  • The Bears sit at 25th in Elliot Harrison‘s NFL power rankings at nfl.com. I thought that was surprisingly high until I looked at the teams below them: Jets, Redskins, Jaguars, Browns Buccaneers, Titans, and Raiders. You could debate whether the Jets are worse than the Bears but with their quarterback situation I’m inclined to agree with Harrison. Even with a terrible defense in transition to a 3-4, the Bears belong at 25th in a miserable bottom portion of the league.

Elsewhere

  • Conor Orr at nfl.com wonders about the success of the teams in the AFC East as the spend to try to catch up with the Patriots:

    “[H]ow does [Bill] Belichick buffer his offense to face off against three brutal front-sevens twice a year? What will his counter be to all the noise being made by his counterparts in free agency? Perhaps the Patriots will be a sleeping tiger now that the market is officially open and they’ll load up for one last (reasonable) title shot in the Brady-Belichick era.”

    Doubtful. Because they don’t have to load up.

    The point about building the front-seven is well taken. The best thing to do is to mimic the Baltimore Ravens who give the Patriots the most trouble year in and year out.

    But the problem with the AFC East generally right now is that the other teams are playing fantasy football, over-paying talented players and winning in March when, in fact, what counts is winning in January. The Patriots win football games because they get players to hit the grass every week and do their jobs. The other teams in the division can spend gross national product but until they get that part down, it’s the Patriot’s devision to lose.

  • Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com reports that DeMaurice Smith has been re-elected as NFLPA executive director. This is good news for fans. Smith faced eight challengers the most vocal of which was Sean Gilbert, who wanted to sue the NFL for collusion and to force the league to re-open negotiations on the collective bargaining agreement. Gilbert’s election probably would have meant labor trouble, something no fan wants. Gilbert may have shot himself in the foot by advocating an 18 game season, which the vast majority of players clearly don’t want.
  • Gregg Rosenthal at nfl.com thinks Adrian Peterson will most likely stay in Minnesota. Why? Follow the money.
  • Chris Wesseling, also at nfl.com speculates that Phillip Rivers might be traded, perhaps to the Titans. All indications are that Rivers will play out his contract in 2015. Similar to the situation in New Orleans with Drew Brees, I doubt very much that San Diego could get what it would want for the 33 year old Rivers. He’s worth more to them than anyone else at this point.

    A lot of teams are going to be looking to develop young talent behind aging quarterbacks this offseason. The Bears arguably need one worse than anyone else and if they have their eye on anyone in particular, they may have to over draft him. Former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, also at nfl.com, has the Bears taking Marcus Mariota with the seventh pick in the draft. It’s not out of the realm of possibility.

  • The Dolphins had the smash hit signing of the year when the added Ndamukong Suh. But you have to wonder if the price of crippling the rest of the team with the cap implications is going to prevent them from winning and defeat the purpose. From Armando Salguero at the Miami Herald.
  • Mike Rodak at ESPN.com suggests that the Bills are spending recklessly in free agency rather that looking for value. Personally I think situations like this almost always end in disappointment as performances in December rarely meet expectations generated in March.

One Final Thought

Rosenthal considers the signing of Bears wide receiver Eddie Royal to be one of free agency’s biggest “head-scratching” moves:

“In a relatively depressed receiver market, the Bears gave $10 million guaranteed to a receiver that has topped 800 yards once in his seven-year career. It was just a random move, and felt a little more painful after the Bears grudgingly swallowed paying Jay Cutler big money into 2016.”

I think the Bears offensive coaching staff sees Royal as a Wes Welker-type of player. The Bears have never gotten the most out of these types of slot receivers but if anyone knows how to do it, it should be Gase. This could be a better signing than most people think.

Why Could the Bears Be Winners as Soon as 2015 And Other Points of View

Bears

  • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune quotes former Panthers defensive tackle Brentson Buckner on what new Bears head coach John Fox said in his first team meeting after taking over the 1-15 team:

    “‘He said, ‘You were 1-15 and they got rid of all the coaches,’ Buckner recalled. ‘None of those coaches played. None of those coaches dressed on Sunday. A lot of reasons you were 1-15 are sitting in this room, and it’s my job to weed you out.'”

    I’d say there are a few Bears that need to hear that. Its all roses and sunshine right now between Fox and Bears fans. But this alone makes me think the Bears probably got their man.

  • For some reason David Haugh at the Chicago Tribune is under the impression that we care what Brian Urlacher thinks.
  • Former NFL safety Matt Bowen at the Chicago Tribune tells us what we want to hear.
  • Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune tries to allay my fears that Fox won’t be able to fix the quarterback position. It didn’t work.My only comfort in this regard is that Bears general manager Ryan Pace will ultimately make the final decision on Jay Cutler. He’s’ has been watching Drew Brees for a good chunk of his career so he knows what a quarterback looks like.

    Pace is certainly going to watch a lot of tape before he comes to a decision. That means eventually he’s going to put on the tape of the game his New Orleans Saints played against the Bears on December 15. At that point he’ll know that he has to get rid of Cutler.

  • Biggs addresses what will be the next media topic, one that might drive the offseason until March:

    “No one knows yet, but the guess here is Fox is comfortable going into 2015 with [quarterback Jay] Cutler as his quarterback.”

    Yeah, that’s the way I read it, too. Fox will, at least, probably do his best to de-emphasize Cutler’s role to the extent you can with a quarterback. I’d expect a heavy dose of running back Matt Forte next year.

  • Biggs also quotes former Panthers and Bears wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad:

    “‘One of the things I appreciated from Fox that he did for every single player was you knew your role on the team. So if you’re the third receiver and you’re fighting for that No. 2 spot in training camp and you don’t win it — you’re not going to have a coach who says, ‘Keep trying, you can get there.’ No, he’s gonna go, ‘Hey my man, No. 2 is No. 2 for a reason and you’re No. 3 for a reason. When we go to three receivers, you are going to be in the game. Right now, I need you to focus on being the gunner on the punt team and I need you to be the best gunner you can be.’”

    One of the things that every successful head coach seems to get through to his players is the mantra, “Do your job.” Step one is probably being crystal clear on what that job is. Fox seems to be able to do that.

  • Denver Post columnist Benjamin Hochman on the Fox hire. Via Patrick Finley at the Chicago Sun-Times:

    “Chicago should be a good fit for him – and if he ever wins a Super Bowl, he’ll be remembered not only as the coach to win a Super Bowl, but to do so with Winnie The Pooh’s Eeyore at quarterback.”

  • Kudos to Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times for addressing the delicate issue of Fox’s health.
  • John Mullin at csnchicago.com does a nice job of describing some of the differences in the defensive scheme that we might see next year:

    “Fox has run a 4-3 defense since his time in Carolina, but it has been substantially different than what the Bears ran under Lovie Smith and radically different from the strange hybrid the Bears evolved into under Mel Tucker.

    “The Broncos under Fox were a 4-3 team. But they operated with massive tackles Terrance Knighton (331 pounds) and Sylvester Williams (313) and a defensive left end Derek Wolfe (285) in the mold of Phillip Daniels and Bryan Robinson from the days of Dick JauronGreg Blache’s two-gap jumbo front four.”

    “Fox, like the Seattle Seahawks’ 4-3 and some of the so-called 3-4 schemes, employed a smaller speed rusher as the fourth member of his front four. This season in Denver it was DeMarcus Ware (258 pounds, 10 sacks).”

    Fox also normally played a 4-3 over front in Denver (where the three technique tackle is on the strong-side) whereas the Bears played an under front last year.

    Do the Bears have the players to make this adjustment? Mullin thinks DE Jared Allen is more suited to the Denver scheme and points out that Ego Ferguson and Jeremiah Ratliff both might be successful. But they won’t have much defensive line depth. Add in the needs at linebacker and in the defensive backfield (which remain no matter what the scheme) and it seems clear that there’s considerable work to do on personnel if Fox makes this philosophical shift happen.

  • On a related note, Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com comments on Fox’s search for coordinators.

    “I am fascinated by [Vic] Fangio off the job he’s done in Frisco, and although I couldn’t care less whether the Bears play a 4-3 or a 3-4 as long as they play it well, there are a number of 3-4 fanatics out there in Bears nation who might finally get their wish.”

    Fangio ran a 3-4 when he was defensive coordinator for the 49ers.

    I’m with Arkush. I don’t care what they run. But I’m having a hard time believing they’ll try to run a 3-4 base. I’d say that it’s more likely that Fox wants to run a hybrid defense of the type that’s in vogue in the NFL now. Fox probably figures he has the experience to coach a 40 front and might want to bring in Fangio to provide the needed expertise to occasionally switch to a three man line.

  • Arthur Arkush at chicagofootball.com looks back at the Bears 2014 special teams:

    Phil Emery allowing Devin Hester to escape to Atlanta last spring without a clear contingency plan backfired. Hester showed he had plenty left in the tank for the Falcons, while the Bears cycled through returners.”

    In fairness, Emery had a clear contingency plan. It just didn’t work.

    The Bears couldn’t keep Hester. He was going to demand too much money and the Bears couldn’t pay what the Falcons paid for a guy that Cutler flat out refused to throw to. Letting Hester go was best for everybody, especially him.

    Reading this article was actually painful. You forget how bad they really were until you see so many of the errors collected in one spot. Special teams was a clown show last season.

Elsewhere

  • Scott Osler at the San Fransisco Chronicle is worried about the 49ers. Most of us are. New coach Jim Tomsula sounds like Forrest Gump at the podium which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that he’s going to be a team motivator. But Osler is worried about a deeper problem:

    “Coaches come and go. York and Baalke are as cemented in place as Levi’s Stadium, and, well, gulp.

    “This is not a coach-friendly setup. [General manager Trent] Baalke is [owner Jed] York’s football guide and mentor, so Jed will always side with and give power to Baalke, putting the head coach in a weak spot.

    “And what has either man shown to instill faith in their ability to lead a team to the Super Bowl?”

    Not much. The roster is loaded with talent but that’s obviously not enough. Tomsula looks like Baalke’s version of Jerry Jones‘s “F- you Jimmy Johnson I can even win with Barry Switzer” than a winning choice. In fact, the guess here is that Tomsula’s best qualification is that he’s a good solider who won’t ever contradict Baalke. That’s not a good sign for either man.

  • Michael David Smith at profootballtalk.com passes on the fact that Rex Ryan has hired former Bears offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer as his offensive line coach. That’s probably a good move for both of them.

One Final Thought

There is something strange when a new guy takes over at a company the way that Pace and Fox are taking over the Bears. Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune quotes former Panthers offensive tackle Jordan Gross as he elaborates:

“You’ve got an opportunity when you come in right off the bat as a new head coach to utilize the excitement guys are going to have about you.”

There’s also a certain degree of fear. Suddenly the guy in charge doesn’t know you from Adam and your comfort level is gone. Suddenly, you wonder if your job is still going to be there in a few months. That leads to a focus that’s hard to replicate in any other way.

Most people believe that the Bears have embarked upon a multi-year rebuilding process. I think that belief is justified – if you are talking about building a consistent winner. But almost anyone can win for one year if the stars align correctly (e.g. the 2006 Bears).

The Bears actually have the talent to win if they stay healthy next year, if the ball falls their way enough and, especially, if enough guys play above their heads and have what amounts to career years. I’m not saying that they will – a lot of things have to go right. But they have a unique opportunity by starting fresh with new management. Here’s hoping they can take advantage of it.

Inside The Mind of Ryan Pace and Other Points of View

Bears

  • New Bears general manager Ryan Pace takes his first step on to the slippery slope that is quarterback Jay Cutler. Via the Chicago Tribune:

    “The quarterback obviously is a critical, critical position to achieve sustained success. But it’s not the only position. For us to have a lot of success, all 53 guys are going to be accounted for. So yeah, I witnessed things with Drew Brees that I have in my mind, that I know why he was successful. And those are ingrained in me. But I want to get to know Jay (Cutler). I want to get to know him further before I come to these conclusions.”

    You won’t really know him until he lets you down. And then its too damned late.

    Talk is cheap, Ryan. Watch the tape. Watch how he reacts when the team is up against it and the breaks are beating the boys. That will tell you everything you need to know.

  • Michael C. Wright at ESPN.com definitively demonstrates the worthlessness of statistics. A blind man could see that Cutler’s are the result of a season where more of the passes were high percentage and where a great deal of scoring was in garbage time. Having said that, I’d love to see his passer rating for the first half only. Who wants to bet its in the bottom 7 or 8 in the league amongst starters?
  • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune reads my mind when considering who the next Bears head coach might be:

    “Pace doesn’t have to seek outside input when it comes to former Bills coach Doug Marrone, who was the Saints offensive coordinator from 2006 to 2008. A source described Pace and Marrone as ‘very close’ and it’s believed they have talked. Whether an interview has been scheduled yet is unknown.”

    Marrone’s got experience and by all accounts he had the Bills headed in the right direction. But he took the money and ran in Buffalo and the Bears don’t need another front-runner, especially running the team.

  • Maybe the Bears will target John Fox and maybe they won’t. Like Marrone, Fox is an experienced coach which would be a nice change. My guess is that he’d try to work around Cutler.Fox is by all accounts a winner and has the right personality. My only real problem with him is that, like almost all of the hot candidates, he comes from the defensive side of the ball. Its still all about the quarterback. But I’ll give Fox this. He’s shown multiple times that he can assemble a staff. He’d probably find the right coordinators if anyone can.
  • If you are looking for an encouraging sign, Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com has one for you in what he noticed from Pace in his first press conference:

    “When asked about the main qualities he looked for in a football player, Pace immediately and without hesitation listed character, toughness, instincts and intelligence.

    “That is a radical departure from Phil Emery’s infatuation with athletes.”

    Nowhere does this Emery weakness show up more than in his draft choices at linebacker where the players have been slow to react and, therefore, rarely managed to play down hill. By all accounts Pace should do better.

  • Anyone else thinking that free agent coach Jason Garrett might be a decent Bears head coach? He’s been moderately successful and might be ready to get out from under Jerry Jones‘s thumb to take the next step. Just spitballing…
  • Jen Lada at CSNChicago.com interviews Pace:

    “As an evaluator, you’ve seen the challenges that this franchise faces going forward. Is it difficult to compartmentalize or start to prioritize where to begin?”

    “It helps me if I go with a step-by-step approach. Really in my mind it’s head coach first step. Assess this roster thoroughly because that’s where mistakes are made. If you don’t assess your strengths and weaknesses on your own roster that’s not accurate, then your offseason plan will be inaccurate. So I need to make sure I assess the roster right and then go forward with an offseason plan, with our new head coach.”

    To me, this is a very revealing answer. That’s mostly because this is the way that I, myself, think. Pace likely has a very organized mind. In his head he has a list of things to do probably actually written down on paper. He writes things down as they occur to him (he says so later in the interview), orders them and probably has an ideal plan for getting them done including a loose schedule for each step. However, there are drawbacks. Because he’s a “step-by-step” guy he’s unlikely to be a multitasker and, because of that, things won’t always be done efficiently. Ideally you evaluate the roster while you are searching for a head coach. Pace sounds like the kind of person who is unlikely to do that. People like this frequently handle things well as long as they go as planned. The key to success is often how well they handle things when they don’t go as planned.

    How Pace handles the administrative details of the job (the few that are exposed via the media) will be very interesting to track.

Elsewhere

One Final Thought

Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times on the process by which Pace was selected:

“We felt it was a really great fit. We loved his intensity. It was more about what he brought to the table than any negative on anybody else. They were all good.’

“For what it’s worth, Pace won the interview.”

For what its worth. I don’t know much about Pace but what I do know about him – his concrete history – doesn’t exactly ease my concerns about whether he’s qualified to run the Bears. I can’t get past the idea that the Bears have hired the next Josh McDaniels – a young coordinator who was made the head coach of the Broncos before he was ready and failed spectacularly because of that.

I’d be a lot happier if Pace was 47 not 37. I’d be a lot happier if he had experience seeing things done more than one way with one team. And I’d be a whole lot happier if he’d actually been a GM before, someone who had already made his mistakes and had time to gain perspective, look back and see where he went wrong.

There was a lot of talk in the papers about the Bears “breaking out of their mold” by choosing someone without a history with the organization. But that’s not the point. The Bears did what they’ve been doing for about 30 years now – chose a young, inexperienced candidate who has never done it before. Maybe its time to stop choosing the guys who just win the interview.

Game Comments: Buffalo at Chicago 9/7/14

Defense

  1. The Bills came out running which is the natural thing to do when facing what was one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. They didn’t hide it with some straight out power run formations and the Bears were looking for it. And they stopped it. The Bills started going to play action after that, of course, and that’s when the fun started. That was pretty much the plan all day. Whenever the Bills felt like they needed to gather it back together they started running and went to the pass off of that. It kept the Bears linebackers off balance all day as they struggled with reading the plays.
  2. Even though the Bills weren’t getting too far running the ball it did slow the Bears pass rush and they weren’t getting to Emanuel enough. For long parts of the game there was no pass rush on E.J. Emanuel at all and it was killing the Bears defense. The Bears tried some line stunts but they didn’t help too much. That has to get better.
  3. This game reminded me a little bit of the Seattle preseason game in that there were massive amounts of space in the defensive backfield for receivers to run into. The Bills did a good job of taking advantage of it.
  4. Jared Allen failed to contain on the outside on the Bills first touchdown. He seems to have a bad habit of that.
  5. Ryan Mundy had a rough game. It seemed sometimes like every time the Bills made a play he was somewhere in the area.
  6. It was interesting to watch Lamarr Houston today. He’s a quiet guy in the media but he’s bundle of emotion and energy on the field. It’s not what I expected.
  7. In general the Bears secondary did a good job of tackling today. Good to see.

Offense

  1. The first drive was beautiful. For some reason the Bills put Leodis McKelvin one-on-one with Alshon Jeffery in press coverage. If there was supposed to be any help, it never got there and Jay Cutler made a beautiful pass. A Bills linebacker slipped and Martellus Bennett got wide open going into the end zone. I’m not too sure he was going to be able to cover him anyway.
  2. The Bills went to a weird 2 man line formation early on. Cutler audibled to a run that didn’t go anywhere. It was an interesting wrinkle.
  3. The Bills were having a tough time getting pressure early and began to blitz in the second quarter. It was moderately effective and I thought the Bears needed to do a better job of taking advantage of it.
  4. Contrary to worries before the contest, the running game was reasonably effective. It was the passing game that was occasionally out of sync resulting in one notable interception by Corey Graham in particular.
  5. Matt Forte really is the most underrated football player in the league. He does it all and he does it really well.
  6. There’s a noticeable difference in Cutler compared to previous years. You read about it in the papers but its different seeing him out there audibling and placing players around him. He’s gone from being an arm to being a functioning brain on the field.
  7. Cutler still has a bad habit of throwing off of that back foot. It makes his throws noticeably weaker and less accurate.
  8. Nice, heads up catch by Josh Morgan in the third quarter off of a Brandon Marshall deflection. It was (yet another) miscommunication, though, as both receivers probably weren’t supposed to be in the same area. Having said that, I like where the Bears are with the third wide receiver. Between Morgan and Santonio Holmes I think there’s a fair chance that they’ll get more out of the position than last year. But they’re going to need Alshon Jeffery.

Miscellaneous

  1. The Bears continued a wonderful streak of drawing the best announcing teams in football. FOX sent Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa and I thought they did their usual nice job of complimenting the action.
  2. Special teams didn’t hurt the Bears too badly today. Jeremy Cain was fine at long snapper. Senorise Perry made kind of a dumb decision and brought the ball out of the end zone on a kickoff to be stopped at the 12 yard line but I didn’t see much that resulted in any damage after that. Of course, nothing much good came out of them either. But nothing bad is an improvement.
  3. The Bears penalties weren’t exactly out of hand but they were irritating. An interference call by Matthew Mulligan eliminates a nice Bennett gain. The Bills had a number of more costly penalties, some of which were legitimate.
  4. A few too many drops for the Bears today. Not anything too egregious but a lot of balls off of the tips of fingers that arguably should have been caught. There were a few that Cutler could have maybe made more catchable. I’ll say that needs to get better.
  5. Neither the Bears nor the Bills are teams that can afford to turn the ball over. Brandon Marshall’s fumble in the 2nd quarter was a killer. Former Bear Corey Graham’s interception in the second quarter on a Cutler miscommunication with Martellus Bennett also hurt badly. Chris Conte’s interception turned the game and helped the Bears get back in it. It was a huge play. As was Cutler’s killer interception as he tried to make a play in the fourth quarter.
  6. I talked earlier about how the Bears offense was going to need to show that they could overcome adversity. Two injured offensive linemen could be just the start. They’d better pray that Alshon Jeffery’s injury isn’t serious.
  7. Both of these teams didn’t really play all that well. The Bears let the Bills out in front with two turnovers and the Bills let the Bears right back in it with one of theirs. Overall the Bears had more talent but executed poorly with little things here and there and everywhere stopping them all over the field. If it wasn’t a turnover, it was a penalty and if it wasn’t a penalty it was a dropped ball or a player out of position. It seemed like it was never the same thing twice but they all added up to a big problem. It could be just first game sloppiness but Bears fans have seen teams stop themselves like this all year too often in the past to be completely relaxed. These boys have a tough schedule up front and if they don’t pull it together quick, they’ll be out of the playoff race in the blink of an eye.

Points of View, April 25, 2013

Though I’ve pledged to make my posts shorter and to the point in a minor reboot of the site, I still want to highlight these short points that don’t deserve extensive comment here and there.  Don’t worry, they won’t be the novels that they used to be.

  • The Green Bay Packers are reportedly trying to become more physical by signing bigger, tougher players this offseason.  Josh Alper at profootballtalk.com comments:

“It doesn’t take sophisticated analysis to figure out that a team that gave up 323 rushing yards in their playoff loss could stand to be stouter than it was in 2012. The inconsistent running game would also benefit from a bit more physicality on the line and in the backfield, so there’s plenty of areas for the Packers to target in their effort to toughen up.”

“[I] think it’s just a matter of who takes me first, because I know the Eagles may want me, the Cleveland Browns may want me, the Buffalo Bills and the Jets.  I think those are all sequential picks, you know what I mean, within those top 13 picks or whatever. I’m just hoping one team loves me, because really, that’s all you need, one team to fall in love with you.”

All of these teams might, indeed, be interested in Emanuel.  In the second round.  I’ll be surprised, along with a lot of other people, if he goes higher than that to any of them at their present draft positions.

  • We also have this nugget from The National Football Post in the Friday Buzz section:

“One player who is making a late run up draft boards is LSU safety Eric Reid. Teams do not have a consensus on how the safeties should fall, but there are some teams who rate Reid the top safety, ahead of Texas’ Kenny Vaccaro. There is a chance Reid could be off the board by the middle of the first round.”

Reid is probably a name to pay attention to if you are a Bears fan.  Dan Pompei at the Chicago Tribune suggests that he could be central to a scenario where the Bears trade down.

Fundamentals Are the Key and Other Points of View And Other Points of View

Bears

  • Chase Stuart at The New York Times thinks history indicates that this will be a Bears team that once again comes up short:

“For Chicago, 2012 feels a lot like 2001 or 2005 or 2006 or 2010, only more so. The defense is as dominant as ever and the special teams have been outstanding. But whether Chicago can finally win another Super Bowl may depend on how the offense operates. With Matt Forte, Chicago has its most effective offensive weapon during this stretch, but in 2012, success in the passing game is paramount. According to ESPN’s Total QBR, Jay Cutler ranked as the 20th-best quarterback before Monday night’s game. Even worse, Cutler is averaging just 5.7 net yards per pass attempt, placing him 26th in the N.F.L. Even though the Bears have a dominant defense, to defeat the Giants, Packers, Falcons and 49ers, the Bears can’t afford to have Jay Cutler play like the 26th-best quarterback in the league.”

“(on how he was able to get into a rhythm in today’s game)

“‘It took a little bit of time. I think we shortened up some of our routes, just tried to get the ball out quicker, get it in the receivers hands and get some rhythm that way. Then when they came up we hit that bomb with B (Brandon Marshall), so it came throughout the game.'”

and Cutler again on his fumble:

“(on his conversation with quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates after his fumble)

“‘It was a good exchange. You know, I just tried to do too much and I think he was just trying to emphasize that point — to play within the play, trying to get B (Brandon Marshall) the ball. We had single coverage with him, but timing wise that play didn’t allow for the time I needed. We just have to play within the play, and we just have to limit that stuff, especially down in the red zone.”

Cutler has been saying a lot of the right things lately. I’ll be more impressed if he keeps it up when things aren’t going well for the team. But for now, its still notable.

  • Vaughn McClure at the Chicago Tribune says that Alshon Jeffery returned to practice Friday as the Bears try to force the Texans to prepare for him. Jeffery had no comment after practice, probably because he didn’t want to lie and say there was a possibility he will go. He’s doubtful for the game.

“‘Right now we’re talking an awful lot about our defense,’ Smith said at his Monday press conference at Halas Hall. ‘But before this season is over — hopefully this week — it’s going to shift, where we’re going to be talking an awful lot about the weapons we have and the offensive plays that we’re making.'”

Bold talk. Here’s hoping it’s more than just wind.

“When do you think Chris Conte‘s cheap shots and Brandon Marshall‘s push-offs are going to cost the Bears a game? — Marc, Downers Grove

“I don’t consider Conte a cheap-shot safety. I think he’s smart for making receivers think twice about coming over the middle, and I don’t think he did anything wrong to draw a penalty and fine against the Panthers two weeks ago. Titans coach Mike Munchak appeared to be upset about Conte knocking down wide receiver Nate Washington after a third quarter touchdown. Conte probably could have avoided Washington, but really all he did was run into him and put his hands out. If he really wanted to lay him out, he could have. He chose not to. As for Marshall, he has been penalized once all year, for a false start. Marshall pushing off has not been a problem for the Bears. I think he does it very well and knows what he can and can’t get away with.”

“UNSUNG HERO

Stephen Paea, NT: Paea very quietly — and very productively — has gone about his business since winning the starting job in Week 2. By eating double-teams and plugging holes, Paea (five quarterback pressures, 11/2 sacks, two tackles for loss) is a big reason for the Bears’ success against the run.”

  • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune reports that D.J. Moore lost the nickel back job Sunday. Its notable because he’s pretty good at generating turnovers. But he’s not as reliable as [Kelvin] Hayden will be in coverage and you get the feeling the coaches have been trying to find a spot for him since camp. It will be interesting to see how this affects Moore. His comments were professional but inside he must be pretty angry.

Lance Briggs can still play and he’s playing his (butt) off, but Brian Urlacher is beaten up and just getting by. I don’t think he has played well at all this year, and he’s really starting to wear down. If we were to play them, I’m running it right at him every time.”

“The Bears thought they could get pressure up the middle because in their preparation they noticed personal protector Jordan Babineuax released early to get downfield and cover. That is exactly what he did. Steltz ran a stunt in the middle of the line and the Bears figured he or maybe [Corey] Wootton could get pressure on punter Brett Kern. It turned out [Sherrick] McManis was unblocked off the edge, allowing him to pick the ball off Kern’s right foot. Wootton scooped it up and carried Kern into the end zone.

“‘Normally, we are more of a return team but we saw something that we could exploit them on,’ Wootton said. ‘We went after it. Sherrick wasn’t even supposed to be the guy that comes free. That is why you always rush hard.'”

“The viability of the Bears special teams genius as a head coach becomes a story every year, so, why wait?”

“… Toub’s name and accomplishments will come up Sunday night. You watch, Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth will talk about Toub’s magic touch and perhaps get to his candidacy to run a team.”

It’s really only a matter of time. Toub has proven over a number of years that he can get the best out of a variety of types of players on a unit which, by its nature, has a large turnover every year. I can’t think of a way to better train to take over a team as a head coach.

  • Pompei, this time writing for The National Football Post, asks the question: “Is the executive of the year in the NFL going to be Phil Emery? Or Jerry Angelo?”
  • Sometimes I wonder if there aren’t hero worshiping Bear fans out there who are willing to believe this. From ProFootballMock.com

Titans

  • This article by Andy Benoit at Football Outsiders is strongly recommended reading for anyone who wants the small details of the Bears-Texans Matchup and the way they’ll likely approach the game. The article is so good, I can’t quote from it because I’d end up putting the whole thing up.

“The Bears play a gap-control defense and when everyone fills his assignment, a runner has no place to go. But they are so fast up front and pursue to the ball so hard that sometimes cutback lanes open up. When that happens, it’s 10 or 15 yards before a safety must make a play in the open field.

“The Texans have plenty of weak and strong leads in their playbook, and Foster’s patience is what sets him apart. With coach Gary Kubiak coming from the Broncos, it’s similar to what helped Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis have terrific seasons.”

“[Defensive coordinator Rod] Marinelli says the Texans like to start running outside zone plays to stretch a defense and widen lanes then hit leads, attacking the middle of the defense.”

“The most challenging aspect for the Bears’ defense Sunday might be staying disciplined against a team that relies heavily on play-action-to-bootleg plays. Last week, Schaub had the Bills swerving every which direction with such plays and one resulted in a 39-yard touchdown hookup with tight end Owen Daniels, a Naperville Central product.”

“‘We (will) double cover [Marshall] every play,’ [Texans defensive coordinator Wade] Phillips said [Thursday] in his press conference in Houston. ‘That’s our plan. We’re going to double cover him every play, so see what happens.'”

“[Offensive coordinator Mike Tice said,] ‘We just need to put a couple of drives together. We need to get that rhythm.’

“Cutler never found it against the Packers and their 3-4 scheme, which is very similar to the Texans’ defense.

“‘[The Texans] present a lot of challenges,’ Cutler said.

“The Packers were able to neutralize wide receiver Brandon Marshall by using ‘two-man’ coverage.

“Essentially, they had two safeties over the top while underneath man-to-man coverage was employed using a trail technique.”

“The Bears believe they do well against ‘single-high’ man-to-man coverage (one safety over the middle). The Texans used that against the Packers at times and were burned.”

Single high or two high, the only guy is is going to consistently get open against man underneath is Marshall. Bennett will help.

Having said that, the key to me isn’t so much the coverage as pressuring Cutler while keeping him in the pocket at the same time. If the Texans’ do that, their defense will do well. If they let Cutler escape, he’s got the talent to burn them both with the run and by buying time and space for the pass.

“All things considered, it’s difficult to imagine anything other than the kind of brawl that’s decided by who makes the fewest mistakes.

“In that case, it’s easier for me to trust Matt Schaub, who’s more of a big-armed game manager, than it is Jay Cutler. And that’s bothersome.”

Yes, it is bothersome. McNeil is probably worried more about interceptions but Cutler’s recent penchant for fumbling the ball could cost the Bears more here.

But I really don’t think Cutler is what everyone should worry about. Its the stack of penalties of all kinds which the Bears offense and special teams both have been committing the last few games. If that happens Sunday night, the Bears are going to constantly be in third and long and they will have an up hill battle beating a good team like this one.

Elsewhere

“You want to know what the difference is between winning and losing in the NFL? The margin of error is so small. It can come down to one player — hitting on one draft pick no one expects or finding a gem after the draft or in free agency — that can be the difference between making the playoffs and sitting at home. It can be the difference between keeping your job and losing it. It’s not easy to swallow, but that’s the cold, hard truth.”

  • This injury is a new one on me. From The Sports Pickle.
  • And finally, the NFL mid-season logos have officially arrived. Also from The Sports Pickle:

One Final Thought

“‘I think the thing that eliminates most of (the rules disadvantages) for us is we play hard,’ Urlacher said. ‘We get 11 guys to the football. The ball’s coming out. We’ve got guys stripping the football. And usually when they come out, unless they go out of bounds, we get them because we have so many guys going to the football.'”

I’m going to mildly disagree. I think a lot of defenses play hard. I think what set the Bears defense and other good defenses around the league apart is the very good fundamentals they display. I’m no expert but I know bad tackling when I see it. I don’t see it much with the Bears. They usually play with discipline and its a good thing because when they don’t, they look very average (or worse) no matter how hard they play.

It’s the Dan Pompei Show Today and Other Points of View

Bears

Things are pretty quiet so I kept this short.

“‘[Bates] has a really good feel of what I like to do and what I don’t like to do,’ Cutler said after the Bears’ second organized-team-activity workout. ‘There are plays out there today that I told him, ‘I don’t like them. Let’s think about getting rid of them.’ He’s fine with that.'”

So correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t you supposed to talk to the offensive coordinator about getting rid of plays?  This brings to mind the situation that the Bears were in last year where players talked after the game about offensive line coach Mike Tice diagraming new plays on the sidelines.  It appears that there’s no one person in charge of the Bears offense.  Instead, one gets the impression that Tice will be sharing the duty with Bates just as former offensive coordinator Mike Martz shared it with him.

“Another likely carry-over for Tice is his ambitious use of tight ends. In Minnesota, he used multiple-tight-end formations 43 percent of the time. One of his favorite personnel groupings included one back, two wide receivers and two tight ends.

“Tice didn’t have Pro Bowl talent at the position, but a tight end led his offense in receptions twice and finished third twice. The player who led the Vikings in receptions twice was Jermaine Wiggins, a journeyman who never came close to having the kind of numbers he had under Tice in four previous NFL seasons.”

Sounds like good news for Kellen Davis.

  • There’s also this great article by Pompei which breaks down the problem of Matt Forte‘s contract dispute.  It seems clear to me that this dispute isn’t going to be solved easily.  Basically, Forte’s going rate is about 8.5 million dollars per year on average for a long-term contract.  The Bears are paying him $7.7 million this year with the franchise tag and about $17 million over two years if they do it again.  The Bears do take care of their players but the never overpay.  And there really isn’t much incentive financially for the Bears to come to terms.

Elsewhere

  • Pompei at, this time writing for The National Football Post, explores the characteristics that make Packer’s general manager Ted Thompson such an exemplary draft guru.  Thompson bucked his usual trend of trading down in the draft by frequently trading up this year:

“Trading up felt good this year, but there were some unusual circumstances that led to Thompson changing it up this year. First, the Packers had 12 picks, including four compensatory picks. That was a big wad of cash in Thompson’s pocket. Given where the Packers are as a team, they didn’t need 12 players. They needed impact players.”

  • Its worth noting the the Packers weren’t the only ones known for trading down that did the opposite this year.  The New England Patriots did the same.  This is likely in part because it was a poor draft.  Teams who do a good job of evaluating talent usually have multiple players that they feel comfortable with when their time comes.  But this year’s draft was generally considered to be poor with little depth.  So those same teams found themselves trading up to get one of the few guys they thought were good value.
  • Pompei also noted the Bills acquisition of QB Vince Young:

“One of the reasons the Bills were sold on Vince Young is they took the unusual step of putting him on the board for a couple of hours when he visited their facility. It is common for teams to talk schemes with rookies, but less common for them to do it with veterans. Given Young’s history, it was a smart move by Chan Gailey. And Young’s knowledge was sufficient enough for the Bills to take a chance on him.”

You want to know if Vince Young has grown up enough to be an NFL QB?  Make him the punter’s personal protector and see what he says then.

  • This quote from Peyton Manning is for all of those people who don’t think offseason workouts are important.  Via the Chicago Tribune:

”I’ve always believed you develop your timing for the passing game in the offseason. You can’t just show up in September and expect to be on the same page. Offseason workouts, it’s a great time to make an impression on the coaches. Coaches are always evaluating.“

One Final Thought

Pompei on the importance of height in a QB:

“[Charger’s GM A.J.] Smith notes that [Drew] Brees has become better at compensating for his lack of height as he has become more experienced. ‘With Sean Payton in New Orleans, Brees gets himself back [in the pocket] to get that vision,’ Smith said. ‘The arm is better now, the release better. You can do that as a pro. Drew figured out his deficiencies and improved.’

“You might even say he grew as a quarterback.”

Ugh.

Bears Shifts Philosophy Under Emery. And Other Points of View.

Bears

Rasheedah Watley has known Brandon Marshall since he was 12 and laughed when I asked her Wednesday if the Bears can change Marshall in ways the Broncos or Dolphins couldn’t.

“’It’s very foolish to think that,’ said Watley, Marshall’s high school sweetheart. ‘I don’t know how many chances you can give somebody. I’m really fearful for someone’s daughter or sister. The guy needs some real help.’’

“Watley has a pending civil suit against Marshall based on a history of alleged domestic violence.”

‘‘I have only had positive experiences with Brandon.  He is misunderstood. Once you get to know him, he will give you the shirt off his back.”

‘‘My thing is this: Get to know him, the man, before you pass judgment.’’

“In due time, the truth will be out, and we’re excited about that.  Given my history, I definitely understand the concern and the questions.”

Ya think?

Personally, Im assuming it was just the story from Marshall’s lawyer.  According to Dan Pompei, also at the Tribune, general manager Phil Emerydeclined to say whether he called the New York police, talked to bouncers at the club, hired a private investigator to look into the matter or simply relied on the word of a colleague looking to move a player.”  He also “would not say whether language was included in the deal to protect one of the draft picks if the player winds up with a long suspension this year.”

That sounds good until you realize that the Bears really never have rehabilitated a player.  They’re really better known for cutting guys like this.  I respected that.  Until now.

“Yeah, I’ll take that responsibility,” Cutler said. “Brandon will take that on as well. He knows what he’s done wrong in the past.  Any support I can give him, I’m there for him.”

“Emery got into an uncomfortable exchange with a reporter at one point when asked if the trade, the first big move of his tenure, could be seen as symbolic of his philosophy or simply a matter of timing.

“‘In terms of bringing in big productive playmakers, yes,’ Emery said. ‘In terms of bringing in people we feel are going to fit … our goal of winning a championship and someone (who) is mature and (has) shown … courage to improve as a person, yes.’”

Biggs also pointed to the change:

“Time and time again, the Bears did their best to shift the conversation to Brandon Marshall the football player, not the man off the field.

“[Emery said,] ‘Also, the performance on the field reveals the person’s football character in terms of his passion, his toughness, his competitiveness. We know Brandon’s one of the top players in the NFL, and that speaks volumes about his football character.’

Head coach Lovie Smith also seems to be on board:

‘“Every employee you hire, there’s some risk,’ Smith said. ‘But you weigh that, which we did. I looked at what we had in place here. Having Jeremy Bates here, being his position coach in Denver, helps a lot. Having him work with Jay and knowing that relationship, a relationship between a quarterback and a receiver … is very important. That helped a lot also. And we’re trying to win games.”

Finally, Potash also emphasized the new bottom line :

“A question about the risk of acquiring oft-troubled wide receiver Brandon Marshall elicited a nearly five-minute soliloquy from Bears general manager Phil Emery on all the factors that convinced him it was worth it to trade two third-round draft picks for a three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver with a litany of personal-conduct issues.”

“That’s all well and good. But it took coach Lovie Smith about 45 seconds of his own babble to cut to the heart of the matter when asked a similar question.

‘‘’We’re trying to win games,’ Smith said.”

So if Marshall spends his offseason beating women, its only a reflection of his ‘football character’.  Under the new regime, that’s what counts.

  • In fairness to Emery, based upon the calls to sports talk radio I’ve heard, this seems to be OK with a surprising number of fans, many of whom can’t see past the uniform.  But even those fans become quiet when you ask them this:  “How often will Marshall show that character if he’s suspended and not on the field?”
  • Assuming that Marshall does eventually find his way onto the field, the good news for those fans is that the Bears seem to have gotten a wide receiver who was superior to anyone else out there.  Biggs compares him to top free agent Vincent Jackson:

“Marshall, Emery pointed out, has the second most catches of any receiver in the NFL over the last five seasons, behind only the Patriots’ Wes Welker. What he didn’t say is Marshall has almost twice as many catches (474 to 242) as Jackson over that period.

“‘We really like who he is as a route runner,’ Emery said. ‘We like who he is in terms of his flexibility of alignment. Brandon can be an X, or he can be a Z or he can be an inside slot because he has that great combination of size. He’s 230 pounds. Length, he’s taller than 6 feet 4. And he has great route feet, you know, body control, hips, and he has great strength to move defenders out of the way to get position and make the catch.’”

“One executive who has studied both players said Jackson is faster and a little better with the ball in his hands. But Marshall competes for the ball better, is a superior blocker and a significantly better route runner.”

“In 2010, Marshall had a drop percentage of 8.5, which ranked 60th in the NFL that season. That means 59 receivers caught a higher percentage of the catchable passes thrown their way.

“In 2011, Marshall’s drop percentage was 6.9, ranking him No. 52 in the league.

“In this case, the percentage confirms what the raw numbers suggest. Marshall’s drops weren’t only a function of his high involvement in the Miami Dolphins offense. He missed more catchable passes than dozens of other NFL receivers.”

“As we discussed Thursday, it would be difficult to reconcile any suggestion that Marshall has turned a personal corner if the allegation from Sunday’s incident — that he punched a woman in the eye — is true. It would make Friday’s news conference performance a high-quality con job.”

Seiferts comments highlights the difference between words and deeds.  And history indicates that even Marshall’s words aren’t trustworthy.

In terms of the current incident, here’s what Marshall said (emphasis is mine):

“Monday night, he was involved peripherally in an incident at a New York club in which his wife was hit with a bottle during an altercation neither of them was part of, according to a statement from Marshall’s attorney, Harvey Steinberg.”

And here’s what the police reportedly say:

“New York City Police received a report Monday about the alleged assault outside the tony club Marquee in Manhattan at about 3:30 a.m. An argument between a group of men and Marshall that had begun inside spilled outside when Marshall allegedly hit her.”

So, basically, we have yet another lie from a player who has had plenty of practice doing it.  The next thing you know, we’ll hear that she slipped on a McDonalds wrapper and his fist hit her on the way down.

  • Many fans have pointed out that the victim might be simply trying to take Marshall for some money.  But the woman’s motivation is irrelevant.  What’s important is that the Bears just bought a receiver who is likely headed towards a suspension before he ever sees the field as a Bear.
  • Seifert compares the Marshall acquisition to that of a sports car.

“You’ve read the reviews, which include a long history of high performance and extensive maintenance. You’re hemming and hawing. You figure you’re a great driver, never had an accident, and feel relatively immune toward the chances the car will break down on you. The dealer offers one final test drive. As you careen around the final corner into the lot, laughing the whole way, the transmission drops to the ground.

“What do you do? Write it off as a random and unpredictable incident? Or do you connect it with the documented history of this model and head to the minivan dealer?”

“It wasn’t clear if Marshall intentionally struck [Christine] Myles or if he meant to hit one of her friends, according to the [New York Daily News] report.

“Only buying that if the other friend was a woman.”

“A strong sales pitch for defensive end Jeremy Mincey fell short. He was minutes away from joining the Bears Tuesday night when the Jaguars lured him back with a four-year contract.”

  • Seifert comments on the re-signing of Israel Idoinije:

“The question is whether the Bears intend for Idonije to resume his full-time role, or if their pursuit of Mincey (and possibly others) indicate they will continue searching for another starting option. The Bears don’t have much depth at the position, which is why they were forced to play Idonije — a longtime reserve/swing lineman — on 84.4 percent of their defensive spans last season. “

The signing of Idonije, along with Jennings and Steltz, is simply insurance.  The Bears are now working in free agency to make sure they don’t take a step back at any position of need.  They’ll now look to draft the best players available to compete at these positions to make themselves better knowing that if no one falls to them, they are covered.

“It does not sound as if the team is intent on finding a new starter for the offensive line, however.

“Smith indicated he was excited about Gabe Carimi and Chris Williams returning from injuries. ‘I like the look of our offensive line with the guys with have signed up right now,’ he said.”

Though I most certainly do not like the idea of J’Marcus Webb at left tackle again, I do recognize the Bears’ problem.  Teams usually don’t let good ones get away and there’s not much out there.  For instance, Seifert comments on what was probably the best left tackle realistically available:

“Veteran Marcus McNeill visited earlier this week, and his situation is a perfect example of how left tackles who are available often are damaged goods in some way. McNeill is a two-time Pro Bowler but has had two neck surgeries and suffers from spinal stenosis. It would have been hard to count on him for more than a year-by-year basis.”

Emery seems to have the right idea:

“Asked about adding a lineman, Emery said the Bears will always be searching for depth.  He said they could look at other free agent linemen, and the team will look “very hard” at offensive linemen in the draft.”

“Outside of [Peyton] Manning there are no “marquee” players left. On a short term deal though I think once he is healthy, and as he showed last season in New England, Andre Carter can really provide a boost to a defense. He’s not a long term option but if you’re a contender, running a 4-3 defense, with a hole at defensive end you can do far worse than to sign Carter on a one year deal. If I was theJacksonville Jaguars I’d take a look at him.”

You could say the same for the Bears, I think.

  • Biggs quotes Emery on new backup quarterback Jason Campbell:

“Arm strength is very important because of our weather and the teams we play.  That to me was a prerequisite moving forward.”

“Cutler joined coach Lovie Smith in raving about tight end Kellen Davis, who signed a two-year contract. ‘He can be one of the premier tight ends in the league if we use him correctly and he stays healthy and all the stars align,’ Cutler said. ‘He’s such a talented guy, so big, so strong, fast, catches the ball well. So we’ve got to design a package that sets him up for success.’”

Davis is probably an adequate tight end but he’s never going to be a star in the league.  He’s good for short passes of 10 yards or less or the occasional pass down the seam but don’t count on him to do much with the ball after the catch.

Elsewhere

  • Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com highlights the conflict of interest that results from players with competing interests are represented by the same agency, in this case Peyton Manning and Alex Smith:

“Both players are free agents, and the 49ers surely will want to keep Smith if the 49ers don’t land Manning.  In order to best represent Smith, his agent should be trying to persuade the 49ers to make a decision sooner rather than later.  In order to best represent Manning, his agent should be trying to persuade the 49ers to wait on Smith until Manning makes up his mind.”

“More specifically, the two teams are contemplating suing anyone and everyone connected to the sudden removal of $46 million in total cap space over the next two years, based on the contention that their treatment of the term ‘uncapped year’ too literally somehow created a competitive disadvantage.  Even though no rules or policies were violated.”

  • Sally Jenkins at the Washington Post explains:

“The word is that [Washington owner Dan] Snyder is beside himself, but he has only his uncontrollable self-interest to blame. What happened was this: Back in 2010, when the NFL entered hardball negotiations with the players union for a new labor contract, the owners warned each other not to use the situation to get a leg up. They were in an uncapped year, with no limit on player salaries, and entering a tense and emotionally fraught labor situation, and they asked each other not to abuse the circumstances.

“In essence they said, ‘Don’t try to set yourselves up to be in a better spot when this is over.’ Think of it like a yellow caution flag in a car race: The drivers agree to hold their places and not to accelerate until the track is clear.”

“Snyder is said to be lawyering up and alleging ‘collusion,’ but experts say a legal challenge will be tough. For one thing, colluding in this instance means improperly acting collectively to suppress salaries. But salaries weren’t suppressed. They were just moved around, manipulated by the Redskins for the purpose of evasion and gaining a future competitive advantage when the cap was reinstated. For another, the group that the NFL owners supposedly colluded against, the union, has signed off on the punishment.”

I’m sure the league got advise from their lawyers before they did this but I have to say that I’m not at all sure there’s no case here.  When owners “warn each other” it sure sounds like collusion and I’m not at all sure salaries weren’t suppressed.  Jenkins probably says that’s the case because the cap room the Redskins lost was distributed amongst the other teams in the league.  But had the owners not “spoken to each other,” who knows how many other franchises would have dumped cap the way the Redskins did.  And who knows how high the effective cap would have been this year had all of that extra cap been distributed amongst the other franchises.

In any case, to me “uncapped” means “uncapped” no matter what the owners whisper amongst themselves.  Anything less seems to be illegal to me.  Or at least it ought to be.

  • Seifert points out that the Packers need a center now that Scott Wells has left for the Rams.  Look for them to draft one early.  Wisconsin’s Peter Konz is a good possibility.
  • Pompei, this time writing for The National Football Post, digs out this interesting nugget:

“In fact, Bucs owner Joel Glazer was quoted as saying this in 2007. ‘Free agency can be almost like a drug. You look for that quick hit, that quick feel-good. I know teams that year in and year out are the Super Bowl champions of free agency, and amazingly enough it doesn’t seem to happen for them during the season. If you can resist the urge for about six weeks, you’re often better off.’”

The fact that the Bucs are eating up cap space by signing free agents like its going out of style this year doesn’t diminish the truth behind this quote.  The only proven way to consistently compete in the NFL is through the draft.

  • Free agent tackle Samson Satel’s timing rivals Brandon Marshall’s.  Via the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.
  • Sam Monson at Pro Football Focus has a few observations from the first week of free agency that I thought were interesting:

“The schematic balance in the NFL continues to shift.”

“This offseason cornerbacks are raking in big money, but the shift in value seems to have come at the cost of linebackers, who are once again experiencing a slow market. Last offseason several high profile and talented players saw a complete lack of interest and ended up signing on for cheap, short contracts in the hope that they could try again down the road. At the time some of this was put down to the chaotic and truncated nature of post-lockout free agency, but now it looks more like the league has begun to value smaller defensive backs who can play the pass over linebackers, many of whom are now rendered two-down players by the ever expanding passing game.”

“Some teams evidently don’t watch tape

The Vikings signed John Carlson to a healthy contract worth around $5m a season. It’s a five-year contract that can be dumped after two seasons, but regardless, the only way you could decide that is good value is if the last bit of John Carlson tape you watched featured a golden dome and Touchdown Jesus.”

“This is a move that seems speculative at best, blindfolded dart-throwing at worst.”

“Quarterback Dominos”

“The Manning sweepstakes is now only down to a couple, but the market for Matt Flynn, another potential answer to a team’s QB issues, is being hampered by the shadow of the Kevin Kolb deal last season. Flynn has shown huge ability in flashes, and teams have thrown big money at those players before, but his current options seem reluctant to pay him for performance that they can’t guarantee he’ll hit. The Cardinals sunk a lot of money into Kevin Kolb on similar potential, and after a stinking first season in the desert, they just had to bite the bullet and pay him another $7m bonus because they have no viable alternative. Nobody wants to repeat that same mistake with Matt Flynn, while the evidence of what it means if you guess wrongly staring them so plainly in the face.”

“Mario Williams: Signed with the Bills after other teams were unable to clear enough cap room to sign both him and his pectoral muscles”

One Final Thought

WSCR’s Steve Rosenbloom did an interesting interview of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s  Omar Kelly.  On whether Marshall’s treatment for borderline personality disorder will affect his on field performance: “He’s trying to kill ‘The Beast.’”

The Bottom Line on the Bears Problems and Other Points of View

Bears

“It is possible a veteran quarterback might have been able to prevent Barber from committing his illegal formation penalty by verbally communicating with him when he saw him lined up incorrectly. I’m not sure the quarterback could have done anything about Barber running too close to the sidelines.”

[Caleb] Hanie’s Passer rating on the seven drop-backs he was blitzed? 2.5. No, I did not miss a digit.

“During the Patriots-Redskins game, Tom Brady was caught cursing at his offensive coordinator on the sideline after an interception. This is no different, if worse, than what Cutler did a few weeks ago in the game against Minnesota. Just because Brady has better credentials than Cutler doesn’t justify it any more. I find it strange that you haven’t come out and questioned Brady’s leadership and/or respectability. — Shaun Canady; Victorville, Calif.

“I didn’t have to question what Brady did because Brady owned up to being wrong. He and offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien hugged it out on the sideline after the exchange. Then, Brady admitted to the media after the game that he was out of line. And he was.”

“There are a lot of ways the Bears can go with their first round pick, and it’s too early to zero in on needs because we don’t know what will happen in free agency in terms of additions and losses. As it stands now, you could see needs at receiver and cornerback, as you suggest, and linebacker, defensive line and offensive line. If all things are equal, I always lean towards going big. And I think the defense really needs a young player to build around. So put me down for a defensive end.”

The only thing I’d add is that the best available in the first round is almost always the way to go. And the Bears have enough needs (at the moment) that they can probably do that.

    1. guards/centers
    2. big wide receivers without top end speed.
    3. strong side linebackers.

All three could be argued to be Bears needs – depending on the definition of “without top end speed”: they don’t need a possession guy. None of them tends to be in demand in the first round but if there’s a really good one and the Bears are sitting at about #18, they might consider it. Otherwise these are spots to look for in rounds two and 3.

“The corners weren’t exactly playing against a group of all-star receivers, and they made a few significant mistakes.

Tim Jennings whiffed on a jam attempt of Ben Obomanu, then was run by for a 43-yard completion. He later got grabby with Golden Tate and gave up 16 yards on a pass-interference penalty.

“Earlier, Jennings had his arms around Tate after a catch and Charles Tillman came barreling in with his head down and arms at his side. He knocked off Jennings, allowing Tate to run an additional 18 yards.”

The Bears decided to go with a lot of single coverage against the Seahawks, not the current group’s strength. I agree that sometimes this kind of coverage is called for. But if they’re going to execute it, they need at least one corner who is better at it.

  • I’ve debated with many people about where the problem with the Bears really lies. I’m a Lovie Smith guy and I think the team has over achieved for well over a year before the current losing streak but there are a number of people out there who think its the coaching staff. Mike Mulligan at the Chicago Tribunesummarizes my answer:

“The Bears will start just eight of their draft picks Sunday night, including Brian Urlacher, who was selected before general manager Jerry Angelo joined the team.

“With Gabe Carimi and Chris Williams injured and out for the season, Urlacher is the only former first-round pick currently on the Bears roster that was drafted by the team.

“He was selected in 2000.”

Case closed.

Elsewhere

  • Here’s another of those stories about out of control Packer fans after losses. In this case, an angry woman was arrested after trying to choke her daughter after the Packers lost to the Chiefs on Sunday.

I wouldn’t dare be dumb enough to suggest that this problem is limited to Packer fans. But I will say this. I’ve met a number of Packer fans and most are really nice. But many of the ones who have spent most of their lives in Wisconsin are a different breed. Playful banter isn’t something they engage in. Most give you a look like you insulted their mothers and I’ve basically stopped talking to them about football.

I love the Bears and follow them pretty religiously. I write a blog for heaven’s sake. But even I think some of these people need to get more of a life outside of football. Its a game not a world war.

  • Some might see some value to the Bears in this quote from the Audibles section at Pro Football Weekly:

“The reason Miami is winning right now is because they are healthier than everyone else. Give Bill Parcells credit — if there is one thing he understands, it is that you make the playoffs by what you do in November and December. He built a big team that plays big and they have weathered the storm. Outside of the quarterback, whom have they lost. When the rest of the league is rested, they will still have the same problems they did early.”

  • I’m not sure what this Audible means for the Matt Forte talks:

“You look at Buffalo’s decision to extend (QB Ryan) Fitzpatrick. It was kind of like buying a stock. His stock went through the roof, and Buffalo said — I am going to buy it. The next thing you know, the price cuts in half. What happens if the Bills start negotiating now — would they have paid what they did? You never negotiate when a guy has all the leverage.”

“If anyone thinks (Tim) Tebow is going to continue to win playing the way he has, they are nuts. You’ve got to be able to throw from the pocket to win in this league. Eventually, you have to make plays with your arm. I’m talking about making accurate throws with (defenders) covering. He has done a helluva job — they are running the ball, playing good defense and not screwing it up. Tebow is not turning it over at all — give him a lot of credit there. But he is going to have a hard time consistently winning if he cannot make throws in the pocket.”

The first thing that struck me about this comment was the parallel to Caleb Hanie and the question of how the Bears could have failed to realize this about him a long time ago. Its likely that offensive coordinator Mike Martz did. the second thing I’ll say is this: Tebow is making rapid progress. Long delivery aside, there’s nothing in my mind that says he won’t become a decent pocket passer with good coaching.

“Give (Chiefs GM) Scott Pioli credit — it’s Scott’s way. Whatever he does from here, whether he crashes or succeeds ­— it definitely is his way.”

“Bill Cowher is very smart and calculating. He knows what it takes to win. He’s not going somewhere just to take a paycheck like the Tuna (Bill Parcells) did in Miami. The worst thing that might have happened to Miami — they started winning games. They may not have a shot at a quarterback in the draft — and it’s going to make it more difficult to attract a (big-)name (head coach) capable of flipping it quickly.”

I admit that I haven’t seen him much. But from what I have seen of Matt Moore, they may already have the answer at quarterback in Miami.

  • Michael David Smith at profootballtalk.com highlights the fact that Juan Castillo isn’t looking like such a bad defensive coordinator in Philedelphia anymore.
  • Tom Pelissaro at 1500ESPN.com begins the process of scapegoating in Minnesota with some comments about Donovan McNabb that those who wanted him for the Bears might find interesting:

“For players familiar with Brett Favre’s precision and encyclopedic knowledge of Xs and Os, the contrast was stark. Coupled with some atrocious practice performances, questionable conditioning and a seemingly cavalier approach to correcting mistakes, McNabb had teammates wary even before he suited up for a regular-season game.”

Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com highlights this article and wonders if the coaching staff shouldn’t bear most of the blame. But I’m wondering when someone isn’t going to take a good hard look at Vice President of Player Personnel Rick Spielman.

  • Judy Batista at The New York Times writes a nice profile of Chief’s interim head coach Romeo Crennel. There’s strong sentiment around the league that he should succeed Todd Haley permanently. This excerpt reminds me of Lovie Smith:

“That Crennel is held in high regard by players should not be construed as his being soft as a coach. During halftime of the Chiefs’ game against Indianapolis this season — when the Chiefs had allowed the hapless Colts to score 24 points in the first two quarters and were trailing by a touchdown — Crennel lit into his defense, questioning the players’ professionalism and toughness. It left players, and even Haley, at a loss for words. But it is now viewed within the organization as a turning point in the season. The Chiefs shut out the Colts in the second half, shut out the Raiders in the next game and then beat the Chargers.”

  • These guys need to get a room. Via The Sports Pickle.
  • I’m guessing it had something to so with this. Via The Onion.
  • And The Sports Pickle also asks the question “Are the Packers still the favorite to win the Super Bowl?”. Here’s my choice:

“Maybe — they have serious problems on the offensive line and defense, but 50-50 Roger Goodell bans blocking and tackling by the playoffs, so they might be fine”

One Final Thought

Josh McCown begins the process of making excuses while denying he’s making excuses. Via Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune:

“Everybody expects you just to play well, and that’s the expectation for myself also.  If I keep looking back and saying, ‘I only got here six weeks ago,’ then it becomes an excuse and you leave an area for you not to play well because you’re leaving something to fall back on. I’m trying to refuse to do that and just say, ‘You have to play well. The team’s depending on you.'”

They’re screwed.

Should Gabe Carimi Start Monday? And Other Points of View

Bears

  • Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times quotes Lovie Smith on the possibility that Gabe Carimi might start at right tackle Monday:

‘‘’We don’t have to make any of those decisions yet,’ coach Lovie Smith said. ‘We’ll let him tell us exactly how far he’s come along. [He] looked good today, looked good last week. I assume we’ll have him available, and we love making those kinds of choices later in the week.’”

Smith might claim to not have to make that decision he technically right.  But that’s deceptive since someone has to be designated to take the first team reps this week.

Current right tackle Lance Louis seems to block with an attitude and he looks pretty good in pass protection. But Carimi looks like a bigger and better run blocker. I doubt that the noise level at Lincoln Financial will match that in that domes in Detroit or New Orleans, where I’d hate to put a guy in his first game back.  Given that to be the case, I’d start a healthy Carimi at right tackle and move Louis back to guard.

“As always, the game will come down to how well the Bears can play on defense and special teams. The Eagles want to score on big plays and make teams throw against their pass rush. The Bears need to counter by taking the ball away. Michael Vick has been a fumbling machine and stellar running back LeSean McCoy also keeps the ball away from his body.

“‘That is something we have noticed,’ cornerback Tim Jennings said. “That’s the style they run and (McCoy) feels comfortable when he gets hit, he’s tucking it. He’s not fumbling, but it’s out there. It’s out there so we are going to take our shots.”’

“‘He’ll be surprised when I hit him,’ Conte said with a laugh.”

“Since the NFL expanded to eight divisions in 2002, there have been three playoff teams from the same division only three times. Most recently, in 2007, theEagles, Giants and Redskins made the postseason from the NFC East and the Colts, Jaguars and Titans did likewise from the AFC South.”

“With long runs from [MattForte (22 and 32 yards) and Marion Barber (29 yards), the Bears had touchdown drives of 81 and 79 yards against the Buccaneers. That gave them six touchdown drives of 79 yards or longer this season. In 2010, they had four all season.”

Elsewhere

“Since October 17, 2010, when a rash of illegal hits by defensive players on defenseless offensive players forced the league to enforce the rules more aggressively, players have been expressing confusion, disagreement, and/or outright defiance regarding rules that, frankly, aren’t that hard to understand.  Teams — and, specifically, coaches — are in position to tell the players in no uncertain terms what is and isn’t allowed.

“But it’s not in a coach’s interests to risk neutering players, especially when coaches aren’t fined for the illegal hits.  So coaches could be subtly manipulating their players, privately expressing confusion, disagreement, and/or outright defiance with the rules, which results in players publicly doing the same.  More important for the interests of the coaches, the players continue to play aggressively on defense, which helps the coaches’ teams win more games.  Which helps the coaches remain employed and, for the coaches that succeed, get paid a lot of money to do so.” 

  • According to multiple media reports, Minnesota governor Mark Dayton along with key members of the legislature have concluded that there’s going to have to be a referendum on the sales tax needed to build a new stadium there.  The local officials concerned had already approved the new tax.The earliest date for such a vote would be November, 2012.  The Vikings lease is up on January 1 and they have indicated that they will not sign a new one without the promise of a stadium.  Florio comments:

“And so, when it’s time to write the story of why the Vikings left Minnesota, point to the legislature’s decision not to allow a community whose leadership is willing to embrace a sales tax for the privilege of hosting the stadium. All that’s left to figure out is whether the logos and the colors and the name and the records will be put into mothballs when owner Zygi Wilf moves the team to Los Angeles in 2012, where they’d play at the Rose Bowl or the Coliseum while waiting for a stadium to be built downtown or at Grand Crossing in the City of Industry.”

I can only agree.  I understand the difficulties of raising revenue for such a project in the current environment.  But this almost certainly dooms the chances that the Vikings will stay in Minnesota.

  •  How underrated was Buffalo running back Fred Jackson before the season?  He couldn’t even get any respect in his own house.  Jackson’s wife Danielle took Michael Vick in the first round and even took running back Michael Turner before finally drafting her husband.  Via the Buffalo News:

“‘[I told her] I’m not going to continue to sit here if you’re skipping over me in these rounds. If you don’t take me, I’m going to call your brother and tell him to pick me up,’ Jackson said.”

  • Former NFL safety Matt Bowen takes us inside of a key play from the Steelers-Patriots matchup for the National Football Post.The Patriots were playing cover two on this play as they did throughout the game.  Poor tackling while allowing conversion of third and long after third and long doomed the Patriots in the first half as they failed to hold the Steelers to field goals.  It was interesting to see this team trying to adjust their defensive philosophy to match the Bears when most Bear fans would just as soon see the team abandon the scheme.
  • Former Bears head of college scouting Greg Gabriel, now at the National Football Post, rips into former Tribune columnist Skip Bayless, who is currently masquerading as a television personality at ESPN.  The only thing I’ll say about him is that he’s better at that than he was here in Chicago.  He is the only writer in America whose name tells you what to do with his columns.

One Final Thought

Kenny Mayne at ESPN instructs Nate Buleson and Calvin Johnson on the definition of a catch.

How about this? If you get up off the ground, turn around and hand the ball to the referee like Walter Payton did every game of his life, its definitely a catch.

End of story.