“‘I just know I can see why people would assume that we are going to take a quarterback,’ Smith told NFL Media’s Steve Wyche in an interview that will air on NFL Network on Monday. ‘There are two excellent quarterbacks that are available at the top. And when you get a chance to draft someone like that most of the time people do. But there are other good players in the draft also. I think it’s a deep draft.'”
Translation: We like Winston but if you want to offer us four first round picks we’ll be glad to take them and stick with Mike Glennon.
Not very likely. Smith is almost certainly going to have to nut up and make this pick. Good luck to him.
“I’d be lying if I told you I knew exactly what Ryan Pace is thinking right now, and they did send Dowell Loggains, the new quarterbacks coach, out to Oregon for Mariota’s Pro Day. But I have not found a single scout, coach or general manager who is absolutely sold on Mariota, and the majority of them have real doubts.
“He is a great kid who may or may not have the leadership gene that Jay Cutler has lacked, but many are concerned he doesn’t.
“He has yet to prove he can stand under center, take a snap, drop three or five steps and turn and read the field. And on the rare occasions when he has stood in the pocket and tried to find receivers more than 12-to-14 yards down the field, he’s been mediocre at the very best.”
“I suspect the Bears know all that and wouldn’t risk the seventh overall pick that way. If they were to trade down and Mariota takes an Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn tumble, perhaps you go at 22 or 23, but that’s awfully unlikely.”
I completely agree with Hub. I know that this is a time of year when everyone pretty much starts lying about prospects in an effort to manipulate the draft board of other teams. But based upon what I’ve seen, I think these concerns are completely legitimate. Mariota didn’t play in a pro style offense and hasn’t shown that he can throw from the pocket, particularly with anticipation to a reciever. From what I’ve seen of him, he looks like an introvert. It’s possible that once he gets comfortable with a team and gets to know the players, his leadership qualities will come out but that kind of thing takes time.
“[F]or scouts setting their final grades, it all still comes back to projecting Mariota’s talent at the NFL level. They have to consider how long it might take him to adjust to pro coaching and how much risk there is that he can’t make that adjustment.”
The Bears might be comfortable with Mariota at number seven but I wouldn’t be. In fact, absent a trade up scenario I have some doubt that Mariota will go before the Rams at 10 and he might even fall to the Saints at 13 or even beyond. As Hub says, he’s highly unlikely to get low enough for the Bears to trade back up into the first round to get him, though.
Personally, I’m starting to warm to Garrett Grayson (above). Grayson is a bit of a stiff but notice how he slides in the pocket, something I think is very difficult to teach, in the video below:
This is a good video to watch because Grayson is under a lot of pressure from a Utah team that was a lot better than Grayson’s Colorado Sate. Though he takes the majority of the snaps from the shotgun, Grayson played in a pro style system. Former NFL coach Jon Grudenrecognizes the advantage this gives Grayson:
“There’s a lot of parts of Colorado State’s system that I recognize, unlike a lot of college football that’s running up-tempo, no-huddle, spread-option football. There’s some principles at Colorado State that will serve Grayson well…He’s a dark horse in this (quarterback) class.”
Notice how he throws with anticipation to his receivers and how he hangs in the pocket under pressure and keeps his eyes down field. He’s also reasonably accurate and throws a pretty good deep ball. Jeremiah has hi as his third quarterback behind Jameis Winston and Mariota:
@Eric_Edholm he’s got poise and sees the field. Can’t say that about many of the other contestants for 3rd spot. Something to build on.
Grayson’s intangibles are reportedly excellent. But aren’t they always.
On the negative side, you can see that his mechanics need work and his release is slow with a little bit of a wind up. I’m also not sure how well he feels pressure. But all in all I like what I see. He’s might be a second round pick and I’d say he should be no less than a third.
In any case, Jeremiah was right about one thing. There’s little doubt in my mind that the Bears will be looking for a young quarterback to develop and I’m sure I’m not alone. Trusting the future of the franchise to Jay Cutler with no options behind him is fool hardy given his history. Keeping an eye on all of these prospects will be an intersting occupation leading up to the draft. I can guarantee that you haven’t heard the last from me on the topic as I get a chance to look around at some of the other options.
“@mikecwright: Thanks for the question. The way it looks right now, there’s definitely going to be a logjam at outside linebacker because the plan is to play Jared Allen, Willie Young, Lamarr Houston and Pernell McPhee at outside linebacker. Both head coach John Fox and general manager Ryan Pace have said as much recently. I’d encourage you to take a step back, take a big-picture perspective and match up that with what you know about new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio is a creative schemer, and if all those guys stick on the roster (which I anticipate happening), he’ll find a way to incorporate all of them. The Bears plan to play base defense out of a three-man front. But when the team goes into substitution packages, which will likely be more than 50 percent of the time, it will probably execute out of four-man fronts designed to get the team’s best four pass-rushers on the field at the same time. We don’t yet know which players Fangio plans to deploy in those positions because he doesn’t know, and won’t know until the team gets out on the field for practice. Fox said that once the guys start working out, they’ll define their roles through their play.”
I’d like to emphasize Wright’s second point in this response – the fact that the Bears will likely play a four man line in substitution packages. As Wright points out, you could reasonably expect the Bears to play in these packages up to 60% of the time. If the Bears play what’s being called the “Big Nickel” package where the fifth defensive back is a safety instead of a corner, it could be more than that. Such a defense allows for better pass coverage than the conventional 3-4 alignment with four linebackers while doing a better job of hedging against the run. The Rams have been particularly effective playing this formation and it’s possible that they will actually make this their base defense at some point. The Giants are aligned in a 4-2-5 version of this package, similar to what the Bears could play, below:
The Bears don’t have the safety depth to play the “big nickel” right now. They don’t even have the cornerback depth to play the conventional nickel at this point. At this point anything is possible. It’s worth noting that Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangioliked to use the big nickel with Jimmy Ward as the third safety. Some will remember that Bears safety Brock Vereen played in a similar type of role in college. Though at 5-11, 199 he’s a bit small to do it in the NFL at this point, its not impossible that the Bears could use him in such a scheme, especially if he bulked up. Indeed, this may have been what former Bears general manager Phil Emery, a former strength and conditioning coach, had in mind when he drafted Vereen.
In any case,big of conventional nickel, its important to remember that Allen (above) and Young have a major role to play in this defense even if they don’t work out as outside linebackers. Whether you change the scheme to 3-4 or not, pass rush from a four man line is going to be a major part of the defense. In that respect its important that Allen, in particular, shows better in 2015 after an off year last season. He won’t like standing on the sideline for half of the snaps but he’ll be 33 at the beginning of next season and it could be the best thing for him. He’s a high motor player and I think getting that kind of rest could only make him better.
The Chicago Sun-Times NFL football writers formulated their first set of mock drafts today. None of the picks is ridiculous but I obviously have my favorite:
Patrick Finley – Kevin White Mark Potash – Amari Cooper Adam L. Jahns – Danny Shelton
Finley and Potash have the Bears taking the best receiver on the board. In Potash’s case White is gone and in Finley’s case Cooper is gone. I don’t have a huge problem with either pick because you could argue that each of these players is the best left on the board when the Bears are up. Michael C. Wright at ESPNagrees as he answers your questions:
@mikecwright recent articles push 4 WR. With needs on D and renewed focus on run game, can Bears afford to address WR in ’16? #bearsmailbag
“@mikecwright: When the Bears pick at No. 7, if a receiver is the highest-rated player remaining on their board, then why not? The Bears traded away No. 1 receiver Brandon Marshall, elevating Alshon Jeffery into that role. And the truth is I’m not sure how Jeffery will handle being a No. 1. How will he handle the extra coverage consistently devoted to him by opponents with Marshall out of the mix? So I think the Bears could and should help out Jeffery by bringing in a legitimate No. 1 or No. 2.”
Though each has the potential to be an impact player I like Cooper a little better than White. He’s got a higher floor with more polish and, though he’s slightly smaller and slightly slower than White in the 40 yard dash, he’s still 6-0, 210 and many scouts think he’s faster than White on tape. Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com agrees with my assessment as he answers your questions:
“From @sporrer17: If Cooper and White are both available at 7, which one do you pick?
“Amari Cooper becomes a Bear so fast your head would spin. They may both turn out great, but nobody had White ahead of Cooper prior to the Combine. Cooper was the much better college football player and there’s absolutely no reason to believe he shouldn’t be the better pro.
“Players can and should fall as prospects with poor workouts at the Combine. It doesn’t change what they did in college, but it can suggest they’re not good enough athletes to handle the step up in class to the NFL. But just because a player runs faster or jumps higher than you thought he could, how does that make him better than what he was in college?
“Cooper and White were both fine college players, but Cooper was clearly the better of the two, and is very likely to be the better pro.”
But the obvious disadvantage to taking either of these players is that they’re both offensive and the Bears biggest needs are on defense. Again, that’s fine if they’re really the best available. But I would beg to differ with that opinion. Of the three picks, the one that made the most sense to me was Jahn’s pick of Shelton.
After the combine and with a little study I came to the conclusion that there were four impact players at the top of this draft: Leonard Williams, Jameis Winston, Dante Fowler, and Shelton. Here’s what I said:
“Of the four, only Shelton is likely to be there for the Bears. He’s got a lot of phone booth quicks for his size and its obvious that he might even provide some pass rush. If you are going to run a base 3-4 of the type that the Patriots run, requiring a big, 2-gapping nose guard, he’s your guy.”
Bear in mind as you watch the scouting tape of Shelton above that he’s not a penetrator. Note how he’s regularly double teamed and yet holds the point. He’s rarely knocked back off of the line of scrimmage and does a good job of shedding blocks. If I had a criticism it would be that he plays a little high. He tends to use his superior strength and bulk rather than using leverage. Nevertheless, I see a lot of Vince Wilfork here.
Though the best thing about Shelton is that (in my opinion) he’d be the best player available at that spot, it doesn’t hurt that he fills the Bears biggest need. From Jahns:
“Shelton may not be the sexy pick, but he would fill a drastic need for an interior defensive lineman. Some veteran free agents remain, but coach John Fox and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio need more to work with. The only interior defensive linemen on the Bears’ roster are 11-year veteran Jeremiah Ratliff, second-year tackles Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton and undrafted tackle Brandon Dunn.”
Though I have my preferences, it’s going to be a great year to be picking in that seventh slot. The Bears aren’t going to lose with this pick. They’re either going to get a very good player or they’re going to trade back and use multiple picks to fill their many needs. Former Bears Director of College Scouting Greg Gabrielthinks they’ll do both, trading back and still getting a good interior lineman.
The Bears success might be capped with Jay Cutler at quarterback for at least another year. But they’re going to get better and as long as that’s the case, the ultimate goal will always be in sight somewhere down the road.
“After meeting at Peterson’s home earlier this month, general manager Rick Spielman recently requested a dinner session with the star running back’s agent, Ben Dogra, at the upcoming NFL Annual Meeting in Phoenix. Dogra declined, NFL Media’s Albert Breer reported, per a source with knowledge of the situation. Yahoo’s Charles Robinsonfirst reported the news.
“Multiple sources close to Peterson have informed Breer that the major sticking point is Kevin Warren‘s recent promotion from general counsel to COO. Under the impression that Warren worked with the NFL to place him on the Exempt/Commissioner’s Permission List last September, Peterson still wants out of Minnesota, Breer added.”
“Robinson has reported that the Cardinals will offer a high draft pick if Peterson becomes available. Franchise icon Larry Fitzgerald deemed the prospect of adding a player of that caliber a ‘game-changer’ for Arizona.”
A few thoughts here:
First, Peterson is doing himself no favors by retaining Dogra as his agent. Dogra reportedly engaged in a heated exchange with Vikings vice president of football operations Rob Brzezinski at the NFL Combine during which he was said to have screamed that Peterson would never play for the Vikings again.”Super agent” or not, anyone who loses his cool in a public exchange that should be purely business shouldn’t be negotiating contracts. Dogra’s got a combative style and his grudge against Brzezinski at least is well-known. He’s not going to be the kind of guy who is going to be capable of the kind of dispassionate thinking needed to act in the best interests of his client.
Second, Dogra is obviously campaigning to get Peterson traded. By telling teams that the Vikings have no intension of releasing him, he’s trying to get them to make offers rather than wait and see if they can get him for nothing. But if either the Cardinals or Dogra think anyone is going to get Peterson for “a high round pick”, they’re dreaming. Even in his 30s, Peterson almost certainly has many years left. If the Vikings accept anything less than a package that includes multiple first round picks they’re fools. And they’re not fools. Peterson is worth far more to the Vikings than anything anyone else is likely to offer.
Finally, Dogra can try to get Peterson traded all he wants, Peterson’s best option will likely be to play in Minnesota. He’ll almost certainly get more money there than anywhere else. In addition, if the Vikings play hardball – and I think they eventually will when push comes to shove – Peterson’s likely options will be to play for them or lose a ton of money in salary sitting at home. Players threaten to sit out all the time but rational thinking almost always prevails and the player ends up playing. Again, assuming that Dogra actually manages to recommend what’s best for his client, that’s what Peterson will do.
“[Pernell McPhee] alone isn’t going to prop up a pass rush in need of a boost as the Bears transition to a 3-4 front under coach John Fox and coordinator Vic Fangio. McPhee was a role player for the Ravens and blossomed last season with 7-1/2 sacks playing less than half the time behind Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs behind a line Haloti Ngata anchored. McPhee is versatile and had 64 quarterback pressures, so the belief is the arrow is pointing up.”
Biggs has a point. You can’t have too many pass rushers. But at least the Bears have two starting quality outside linebackers in McPhee and Lamarr Houston, a player who has shown in the past that he can do it at a high level with the Raiders. Its true that neither is “dominant”. But both are ascending players who might develop in that direction. The Bears were already betting on it when they signed each of them.
The key to Biggs’s statement above was “behind a line anchored by Haloti Ngata [above]”. The Bears don’t have even three good quality starting 3-4 defensive linemen who can keep blockers off of the linebackers, let alone the depth they’ll need at the positions. You have to stop the run first and right now, given what they have up the middle, I wouldn’t trust the Bears to stand in the face of a gust of wind.
I don’t believe in drafting for need so if a pass rusher is the best guy available, by all means take him. But I still put defensive line at the top of their list of needs.
“I’m making the Jets (4-12 in ’14) my early favorite. There are a lot good vibes around Florham Park right now, with the additions of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Cromartie and more. New coach Todd Bowles has a real secondary to work with — something Rex Ryan couldn’t claim last year — and I can easily see the Jets making a four-to-six win jump with better quarterback play, whether that be from Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick or, yep, Marcus Mariota.
“Also look out for the Buccaneers (2-14), who will get better in a hurry if they hit on Jameis Winston.”
I’ve commented extensively now about teams winning in March not winning in January. But having said that, there is something about having a new coaching staff that rejuvenates a team. No one’s job is safe and everyone focuses a little more and competes a little harder that first year. So its not out of the question that that Jets – or the Bills – bounce up with a good record this year.
I’d like put the Bears into this class. They’ve got plenty of skill position players on offense. They added an ascending pass rusher in Pernell McPhee. You could argue that Jared Allen simply has a down year and could be much better rested rushing in subpackages. Lamar Houston was slow to adjust to defensive end in a 4-3 and will almost certainly be more comfortable in a 3-4. But unfortunately with Jay Cutler returning as quarterback and a transition to the 3-4 going on defensively, the guess here is that most of the benefit that new Bears head coach John Fox brings will be for the long haul.
“I’ll look at it another way: Which one of last year’s playoff teams would instantly fall off a cliff if their star quarterback up and decided to join Jake Locker in the cornfields. My first thought was Andrew Luck, but that Matt Hasselbeck has some dad pluck. They’d probably go 7-9. There’s Tom Brady and the Patriots, of course, but knowing that team Jimmy Garoppolo would somehow make them better. The answer has to be the Cowboys, who are still voluntarily compensating Brandon Weeden. 12-4 to 4-12 would be in play.”
Hanzus forgot about the Packers who went 2-4-1 without Aaron Rogers in 2013. That translates to 4-5 wins over a 16 game season. For my money Rogers is the best quarterback in football and he single handedly elevates the Packers, a draft and develop team that will never have the elite talent all over the field that top teams like the Seattle Seahawks have.
“First, in emotionless, necessary succession, the team rid itself of memories from that game. Shawn Slocum. Brandon Bostick. Brad Jones. Retaining any of the three, even if their body-of-work performance justified it, would’ve only served as daily reminders of that Jan. 18 nightmare in Seattle. The head coach himself gave up play-calling duties.
“One reason Green Bay’s dreadful special teams reached the point of no return was, possibly, his lack of involvement. So [head coach Mike] McCarthy swallowed his pride.
“No, the Packers didn’t make a Julius Peppers-sized signing that would’ve re-energized the faction of fans still moping. They have, however, done plenty to cleanse itself of the recent NFC championship meltdown.”
Purging aside, Green Bay annually runs the risk of becoming stale by simply resigning veterans with little or no turnover. The signing of Peppers arguably provided a spark for the team but this year, perhaps more was required. Are these changes enough? We’ll find out.
“There were plenty of warning signals for the Cowboys to heed and [owner and general manager Jerry] Jonesreleased a statement Wednesday night explaining that the Cowboys spent considerable time trying to get to know Hardy.
“But there are others who know him, too.
“It was startling, on Wednesday, to hear a former Hardy teammate say publicly that he was sometimes unmanageable, and for Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Lichtto explicitly tell the Tampa Bay Times that the Bucs had stopped pursuing Hardy not for contract reasons but because ‘at the end of the day, we didn’t feel good about it.’
“It is rare for a team executive to be so candid about an active player and rarer still for a former teammate to break locker room camaraderie to air issues about a player who is trying to restart his career. But make no mistake, they were far from alone among those who evaluated Hardy over the last few weeks… [M]ost teams did not even give him a look and, at the end, it appeared that the Cowboys were bidding against themselves for Hardy’s services.
“‘He was a mess coming out of college,’ one NFL team executive said, when asked why his team did not go after Hardy. ‘He had a number of issues then and his behavior since entering the NFL hasn’t proved him to be anything different.'”
“Whether you find that problematic probably depends on whether you root for the Cowboys.”
“There isn’t much doubt that the Cowboys’ defense is better now than it was in that loss, and by the time another late-season game against a top quarterback rolls around, that might be all anybody is thinking about. But the tone-deaf celebratory nature of the Cowboys’ Hardy announcement — smiles and exclamation points all around — suggests that the message from those ‘No More’ public service announcements (in which the Cowboys’ own good guy, Jason Witten, was featured) ultimately gets drowned out by the demands for better results.
“There’s nothing surprising there. There was a similar din when the Philadelphia Eagles signed Michael Vick after his stint in a federal prison. The protesters were outside the gates for his first appearance in a game. But they dwindled rapidly as Vick showed contrition and, probably more significantly, that he still had some game left. Fans wore his jersey again and, in recent seasons, he was even hailed as a veteran mentor.”
I think Battista might be surprised on this one. Vick was found guilty and paid the price by going to jail. This is different. And the tolerance for these kinds of things is considerably less that it was when the Eagles signed Vick. Players like Adrian Peterson who immediately express remorse will get some slack from fans. Hardy might not, even from die hard Cowboy fans who hold the integrity and history of the franchise sacred.
Batista continues:
“Going forward, Hardy — and [Ray] Rice and Adrian Peterson, too — will be good tests to find out just how much our historical love of a second chance stretches to include even the most despicable acts. Hardy’s jersey sales will tell us plenty.
“For some, at least, that seems to be all the evidence about Hardy that matters.”
I came to the conclusion a long time ago that my team often wasn’t any better than the others when it comes to doing some things that I personally think are flat out wrong. I’ve slammed opponents for doing things like not letting the Bears interview a coach to give him the opportunity for advancement to coordinator only to see the Bears do the same thing the very next year. I’m still revolted by the fact that the Bears didn’t give Baltimore their fourth round pick in a trade the Bears, themselves, were at fault for botching a few years ago.
Ben Roethlisberger [*cough*]allegedly[*cough*] walked down the back hallway of a bar with his pants already down to [*cough*]allegedly[*cough*] rape a girl in the back room. He, also, got away with it because he [*cough*]allegedly[*cough*] paid the woman off. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a reputation for having as much integrity as anyone in the league. But he’s still their quarterback.
No one can really say that their team is immune.
Bottom line, I won’t be buying any Greg Hardy jerseys and I don’t know anyone – Cowboys fans or not – who will. But having said that, I don’t judge other teams actions much anymore. I just hope like heck, the system having failed, having gotten away with it once with both his freedom and his high paying job intact, that Hardy doesn’t do it again. Because he sounds to me like the kind of off balance character who might. And whether he plays football or not, that’s what really matters.
