Bear(ing) the News – A Chicago Bears Blog

Matt Trowbridge at the Rockford Register-Star echoes the thoughts of many Bear fans with this editorial:

“I like [Bears first round pick] Kyle Long. He is an intriguing prospect, with great football genes in Hall of Fame father Howie Long and brother Chris Long, a top-three pick as a defensive end for the St. Louis Rams. He also came at the No. 1 position of need for the Bears the last five years: the offensive line.

“I just don’t like him with the No. 20 overall pick. Not when almost no one else predicted Long would go anywhere in the first round.

“If the Bears wanted Kyle Long, they should have gambled that he would still be available early in the second round, or even late in the first round.”

I’m not so sure.  “Almost no one else” may have had Long going in the first round but he was a late riser.  And “almost everyone” has a bad habit of being wrong.

Kyle’s father Howie, at least, was convinced that Kyle wouldn’t last long past the Bears pick.  Via Adam L. Jahns at the Chicago Sun-Times:

“”I kind of felt like — and I won’t share the two or three teams that were picking after Chicago — but I felt like it was a really good opportunity that Kyle would go between 20-28, 29, without tipping my hand,’ Howie Long said at Halas Hall. ‘But he would have been off the board. … I’ve heard people say they should have traded down and got him in the second round. He wouldn’t have been there.'”

If I was inclined to criticize Bears general manager Phil Emery, it might be for falling in love with one player.  That he so was afraid of losing that player that he wouldn’t even consider a trade down and instead was forced to take him at a spot that might, maybe, have been to high.  Generally speaking, that’s a no, no.  But I don’t really know if that’s what happened.

The key question is, “Was it really too high to take him”?  And the bottom line is that its hard to say what NFL scouts who spend all of their time evaluating prospects and who actually do the job for a living really think.  So I’m inclined to cut Emery some slack here.  I don’t know if Long was the right pick but if he was their guy, I’m glad they took him when they did.

When I was a graduate student, the common saying amongst Information Technology personnel was “No one ever got fired for choosing IBM”.  Looking back on it many years later, I now realize that there’s a lot of truth in that.  So it was very difficult to watch Bears general manager Phil Emery draft offensive lineman Kyle Long Thursday night with the likes of Alec Ogeltree and Sharrif Floyd still on the board.  Conventional wisdom said to run to the podium and snatch one of them.

Maybe I shouldn’t have been surprised.  Conventional wisdom also said not to go to Canada to hire a head coach who hadn’t been in the NFL for half a decade.  Conventional wisdom said to draft David DeCastro last year over Shea McClellin.

It could be that Emery is simply a lot smarter than the rest of the NFL.  I just wish he didn’t feel the need to prove it with every decision he makes.

In any case, my reaction wasn’t uncommon.  As I went to bed Thursday night, I turned on WSCR in time to hear Hub Arkush say this about his reaction to the Long pick:

“I wanted to vomit but I didn’t want to make a mess on the studio floor.”

I didn’t feel that strongly.  But I’m not happy right now.  Perhaps the reason can be encapsulated by this description of second round pick Jon Bostic from NFL scouts as reported by Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune:

“ Jon Bostic, Florida, 6-1, 245: Bostic worked out exceptionally well and opened a lot of eyes. But he didn’t play with the same level of athleticism. “He is a little bit more of an athlete than an instinctive player,” one front office man said. “He has to see it to go get it.” He does not get to the ball as well as some of the top middle linebacker prospects. Bostic can run the defense and play all downs. He makes plays inside and outside of the box. He is a strong player who plays physically. He is a solid leader.”

Worked out exceptionally well.  “He’s a little bit more of an athlete than an instinctive player.”  That pretty much sums up the Bears draft so far.

When Emery was hired, the one thing he said that made me feel that the Bears had made the right choice for general manager was that he was going to go strictly by what he saw on tape when evaluating players.  How much tape could he have possibly seen of a first round pick who started only four games?

Emery appears drafting by the numbers.  Like former Bears head coach Dave Wannstedt in the days when the Bears drafted the likes of John Thierry and Alonzo Spellman, Emery appears to be enamored with measurables that can be derived from workouts rather than what he sees in terms of play on the field.  He’s drafting “traits” not football players.

I don’t claim to be an expert.  But in all of the years I’ve been following football, I have never, ever seen this work.  Inevitably you end up like the Raiders did under Al Davis who consistently drafted “size and speed guys”.

You can’t evaluate a draft the day after a general manager makes his picks and I swear I’m not doing it now.  This could all work out and I’ll be the first in the line to join the Phil Emery fan club if it does.

But I don’t like what I see.

Positivity is a wonderful thing.  In fact, the ability to simply believe that something can be done is the first step in accomplishing anything in life.  But what happens when one closes one’s eyes to reality all together, that is a bit of a different issue.

Unfortunately this is something we encounter all to often amongst NFL fans this time of  year.  New coach, new schedule, new draft, new season.  Everything thing is new.  Everything is rosy.  Few people want to face the colder realities of the NFL before the season even starts.  They’d rather ride on hope.  Hope that so and so blossoms or another guy from the draft is going to solve some of, or even all of, the team’s issues.

The tragedy for me, personally, is that I can’t do that.  I don’t mean I won’t do it.  I mean I’m totally incapable of losing myself in the kind of thinking that only sees the Bears in a positive light.  Oh, I see the positives.  I love them.  I just can’t make them so dominant over other factors that aren’t so sunny and nice.

The reason is actually very simple.  As much as I enjoy the highs of being an NFL fan I also dread the lows.  I prefer to prepare myself mentally, not for the worst, but for both the bad and the good.  This flattens the emotional road ahead.  That preparation, for me, starts in January and usually kicks into top gear right about now just before and after the draft.

It was with these thoughts in mind that I read the latest State of the Team article on the Bears by Andy Benoit at Football Outsiders.  Benoit is one of the most astute NFL observers out there, writing for, amongst many other publications, The New York Times.

If I didn’t agree with everything in this article, I would at least call his evaluation extremely fair and balanced.  But some of you are going to absolutely hate it.  In fact, I would dare say a lot of you aren’t going to finish reading it.  The following excerpt addressing the offensive line will be sufficient to demonstrate:

“[New offensive tackle Jermon] Bushrod is the latest major investment the Bears have wishfully made in an effort to turn around their awful offensive line. The ex-Saint showed admirable improvement last season but, overall, he still must be described as an above-average athlete with below-average pass-blocking acumen. He’s very good when moving forward and very iffy when moving backwards. Which means, in all likelihood, the Bears will have to give him help in a lot of third-and-long situations. Is Bushrod really worth $22.4 million guaranteed?

Inside, [center Roberto] Garza can suffice, but there are concerns about the guys flanking him. Outside, [tackle J’Marcus] Webb should be better on the right than he was on the left, but a change in position does not denote a change in talent. With slow, heavy feet, he will still need help in pass protection. There’s not much depth here either; [Ebon] Britton brings position versatility, but he was bad wherever he lined up in Jacksonville last year. That was likely the function of injuries, but those injuries have been the defining mark of his career.

The sad conclusion: despite continued changes, the Bears are liable to still have a lot of the same blocking issues and play-calling restrictions that have hindered them in recent years.

Anyone who manages to continue on to the defense is going to read a lot more positive comments.  He also says some nice things about Matt Forte that I whole heartedly agree with.

But that isn’t what I’ll hear about.  What I’ll hear is that the Bears haven’t even drafted yet and Benoit is (and by proxy I am) already trashing them.  I’ve heard it all before.  I’ll hear it years from now again during another shiny new offseason.

So those of you who don’t want to hear it in April, go ahead and get your hopes up.  But be warned.  Come September, these future issues are going to be present reality and no amount of positivity will hide them then.  And its going to make your disappointment all the greater.