The Chip Kelly Conundrum

Posted on December 26, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Darius Walker at nfl.com comments upon the disconnect between the offensive system and running back Demarco Murray, who the Eagles gave a $40 million contract to in the offseason:

“Chip Kelly‘s high-powered spread offense revolves around spacing. The majority of snaps take place out of the shotgun formation, with the goal of capitalizing on the gaps created by that alignment. To be successful, Murray must rely on his peripheral vision and react to open lanes throughout the entire line of scrimmage. So if a hole opens up on the back side, he needs to see it immediately and take advantage.

“Unfortunately, he’s never had to do that before.”

“Only a handful of backs can be classified as feature backs, which is to say, someone who does everything well. Most runners fall into one of three categories: one-cut, open-field or third-down.

“Murray is a one-cut guy. He has a rare combination of strength and balance, with an exceptional capacity for attacking downhill. He can completely gash opposing defenses between the tackles and get the tough yards.”

“In Week 5 against New Orleans, the Eagles incorporated more runs from under center. The result was one of Murray’s better outings of the season (83 rushing yards and a touchdown). In order for Murray to be successful, and for the Eagles to leverage their investment, Kelly would have to completely alter the offensive approach.”

Which he’s not going to do. Like running backs, you can classify coaches into two types: those who adapt to their personnel and those who need personnel to fit their system. Kelly is the latter. Unfortunately he had zero NFL experience as a coach before being hired by the Eagles, much less as a personnel man.  He’s paying for that inexperience now.

Murray’s struggles mask the other real issue for the Eagles. It’s poor coaching. When he took on the role of general manager, Kelly was arguably distracted and weakened his strongest suit, his ability to get the most out of players, especially on offense. Connor Orr. also at nfl.com, comments upon one Eagles’ situation their game against the Cardinals as one example of the problem:

“Because they were already trailing the NFL’s fifth-best defense 17-10, Kelly thought that points would be at a premium, so he opted to go for it on fourth down. Following a timeout, Kelly sent out his personnel grouping and the Cardinals immediately countered with a timeout of their own.

“In that moment, Eagles offensive tackle Lane Johnson noticed that the Cardinals returned with a different defense.

“‘They brought (linebacker Alex Okafor) over and put him over (Eagles tight end Brent Celek),’ Johnson said. ‘That’s basically what they did.’

“Did the Eagles return with a different play call?

“‘Did the play call change? Our call was the same but the defense changed,’ he said.

“So the defense may have anticipated the call?

“‘I think so. It was just a good play by them. We didn’t execute like we should have.'”

“And it wasn’t just moments related to the offense and their seldom-used $40 million player. The defense was drifting into sub packages with their backs against the goal line. Their line and secondary was so scattershot that the Cardinals didn’t even bother taking advantage of the fact that the Eagles were down to their final two healthy cornerbacks, opting to pound the ball with David Johnson.”

Is Kelly in over his head? It sure looks like it. It’s fairly evident that coaching in the NFL is more than just rolling out more talented players than the other team, spreading them out and letting them do the same thing over and over again as Kelly did at Oregon. Its a game of adjustments and re-adjustments over the course of all 16 games. Kelly is likely just realizing that.  Its possible his players are realizing that he’s just realizing it, too.  That doesn’t inspire much confidence or good play.

The Eagles were one of the most interesting teams going into 2015. We all wondered which direction Kelly’s team was going to go in after drastic changes in the offseason meant to give the coach what he wanted to get over the hump. Its now clear that what he wanted was the wrong thing in at least some cases and the Eagles have regressed. The question now is what to do about it.

Once again, the Eagles will be a fascinating team to watch in the offseason. They are left with an unsavory choice. They could quickly tear things down before they get worse. If they choose, instead, to stick with Kelly and let him learn on the job how to both coach and manage personnel in the NFL, the Eagles may well have a ways to go before they bottom out. Kelly is by all accounts a smart man and the likelihood is that he’ll eventually figure it out. But do the Eagles, their players and their fans have the faith and the patience to wait that out? And should they?

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Only Limited Similarity Between John Fox and Lovie Smith

Posted on December 26, 2015 by Tom Shannon

David Haugh at the Chicago Tribune praises former Bears head coach Lovie Smith but at the same time under-states the positives of current head coach John Fox by stating that there’s not much difference between the two:

“The praise heaped on Fox comes mostly because he benefits by comparison to predecessor Marc Trestman, the cerebral interloper more suited as a life coach than an NFL head coach.”

“Truth is, Fox re-established credibility at Halas Hall by doing the job much the way Smith did for nine seasons: treating players like men and employing a philosophy built on a strong defense and conservative offense… If Smith could hire offensive coordinators as well as Fox has, perhaps he could have returned to a Super Bowl with the Bears.”

“Fox’s consistency in approach — something that always helped Smith connect with players — gives the Bears hope for the future no matter what their 2015 record is.

“Meanwhile, history gets a little kinder to Smith every week.”

I think everyone recognizes Smith’s accomplishments here and I think everyone recognized them when he left. But we also recognized his faults and there’s no doubt that Fox is a great improvement as a head coach. Fox has almost all of Smith’s positive attributes with out the baggage brought by Smith’s weird combination of both arrogance and insecurity.

It was the arrogance that made him insist on more power over personnel than he should have had in Chicago. It’s what’s gong to end up holding the Buccaneers back with Smith in charge of personnel there.  As former bear general manager Jerry Angelo put it:

[James Winston is] right on the cusp of being a franchise quarterback. They were a really bad team a year ago and they’re not really that much better this year except for him.

My mother could have drafted Winton or Marcus Mariota.

It was his insecurity that caused his poor record of hiring coordinators. Smith insisted they have experience working with him before because he was afraid of the creative tension that might be brought on by someone with a different point of view. He also lived by the tenant that you should never hire anyone good enough to be your own replacement. Even if you discount these speculations the fact remains that Smith couldn’t attract the best coaches.

Fox has none of these problems as demonstrated by the fact that he hired offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, the two best available coordinators of 2015. He stays in the background and helps them do their jobs rather than doing it for them as Smith did with the defense after firing Ron Rivera for the sin of occasionally disagreeing with him.

In many ways Smith was a wonderful head coach and despite his flaws he brought some good years to Chicago and I’m grateful. But I don’t miss him. Looking back, the Bears are much better off now than they ever were then.

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Bears 2015 Draft Was Very Good but 2016 Needs to Be Better

Posted on December 25, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Former Bears director of college scouting Greg Gabriel takes a “first look at the 2016 NFL draft”. It is, in fact, more of a look back at 2015:

“In the 2015 Draft, the Bears got four players who already have given strong contributions to this team. That is a very high number for any draft. As we all know, first-round pick Kevin White has not played, so he will in essence be a bonus addition to the next draft class.

“Second-round pick Eddie Goldman is the starter at nose tackle and has had an excellent season to date. He is, in fact, a better inside pass rusher than was predicted. Third-pick Hroniss Grasu is the starter at center and, while his play has been up and down, he has a bright future. He just needs to add some strength and bulk. That should happen this coming off season.

“Fourth-round selection Jeremy Langford has started some games at running back and right now is splitting time with Matt Forte. He looks like a legitimate NFL running back. Fifth-round selection Adrian Amos has been a starting safety all season and his play has been a pleasant surprise.”

If there was ever a reason for optimism amongst Bears fans, it was the under the radar success of the 2015 draft.

Unfortunately, the only playmaker in the group above is (arguably) Goldman. And that’s projecting a bit. Though all of the players above are valuable contributors, even if White turns out to have the goods the Bears didn’t hit the jackpot with many impact players. Grasu needs to develop, Langford has been good but not dynamic, Amos almost never shows up around the ball in coverage.

That all has to change this year. The Bears have needs all over the field and they are likely to truly take the best available player at their draft position.  General manager Ryan Pace will have had an entire season and offseason to prepare for the draft.  All-in-all, I think the odds are as good as they will ever be that the Bears will select more elite talent.  They’d better.

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Decision on Class Act Matt Forte Can’t Come Until the Offseason

Posted on December 24, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune quotes running back Matt Forte on the Bears letting his contract run out before making a decision on what to do moving forward:

“Forte expressed his desire for a contract extension last offseason, even offering to restructure his deal to give the Bears a salary cap boost for 2015 while also obtaining his own job security. But new general manager Ryan Pace made it clear he wasn’t interested in discussing a new deal at that time.

“And while Forte understood the decision, the limbo also bothered him.

“‘I would respect it more if it was just like, ‘Look we’re not going to re-sign you.’ … Because then I would know.”

Forte_Camp_2009Unfortunately the Bears couldn’t do that then and they can’t do it now.

First, they probably haven’t made the decision, yet. What if running backs coach Stan Drayton strongly suggests that Langford can’t carry the load and that both backs would be better sharing it? What if they decide that they can’t carry Ka’Deem Carey as a reliable back up?

ON the more positive end of the spectrum, what if offensive coordinator Adam Gase meets with the front office after the season and describes new plans to use both Forte and Jeremy Langford at the same time? Forte has plenty of value as a receiver on a team that could certainly use more threats at the position.  And they’ve got the cap room to keep him as a luxury in such a role.

Second, and more important, the next two games could end up making what will be a difficult decision, easy. What if Langford sustains a serious injury on Sunday that jeopardizes his future? Suddenly resigning Forte becomes a priority.

In any case, whether the Bears keep Forte or not probably depends a great deal on whether they can keep him at their price. That will depend upon what his value is in free agency and there’s no way to know that until he actually hits the market.

One thing is certain. Whoever gets Forte is going to get a consummate professional and a class act. Fans here are going to wish him well and welcome him back whenever they can. That’s worth more than any contract any team could offer.

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Will Trent Baalke Be the Owner, Too?

Posted on December 23, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Anyone wondering what the problem is with the 49ers need wonder no longer. Darin Gantt at profootballtalk.com comments:

“Trent Baalke’s apparently doing more than delivering players such as defensive backs Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt for the 49ers.

“He’s apparently coaching them up, too.

“Though they have a complete and (allegedly) functioning coaching staff, Ward and Tartt say that Baalke’s often on the field during practice giving them tips.”

Here’s Baalke’s employment history from Wikipedia:

“1998–2000 New York Jets
Personnel Scout
2001–2004 Washington Redskins
2001–2003 National Scout
2004 College Scouting Coordinator
2005–present San Francisco 49ers
2005–2007 Western Region Scout
2008–2009 Director of Player Personnel
2010 VP of Player Personnel
2011–present”

Do you see defensive backs coach in there anywhere? Do you see coach of any type in there anywhere? And yet Baalke considers it to be his job to do it.

The problem with teh 49ers isn’t retirements and it isn’t bad luck. It’s Baalke. He’s a megalomaniac, control freak who took one of the best teams in football and tore it apart brick by brick. He’s now undermining the coaching staff full of “Yes men” that he put together to coach the motley crew that’s left.

As a Bears follower I don’t care that much. But as a football fan I’m offended and the sooner this guy finds his way to the unemployment line, the better off we will all be.

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Brandon Browner Sets the NFL record for Penalties

Posted on December 22, 2015 by Tom Shannon

There are two weeks to play yet but Saints cornerback Brandon Browner has already broken the NFL record for penalties. Browner was flagged for the 23rd time this season (21 accepted) on Monday night. The previous record was set by Texans tackle Chester Pitts in 2003. The list of Browner’s accepted penalties according to Kathleen Terrell at nola.com:

Defensive Holding – 10
Unnecessary Roughness – 3
Face Mask – 3
Pass Interference – 3
Illegal Block Above the Waist – 1
Illegal Contact – 1
Offsides: 1

Browner was signed by the Patriots in 2014 after spending three years as part of a very good Seattle defense but didn’t prove to be effective without the supporting cast there. After signing with the Saints this season he has  been flat out the worst starting cornerback in football, ranking 117 and dead last one the list according to Pro Football Focus. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Browner was out of the league in 2016.

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Average Fan Loses in Network Prime Time Choices

Posted on December 22, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Paul Schwartz at the New York Post comments upon the state of the Giants:

“Gee, wonder how happy the NFL and TV network suits are about their decision to flex Sunday’s Giants-Vikings game to the prime time Sunday Night Football stage on NBC? The Giants could be eliminated before they take the field and might be without [Odell] Beckham, their one true superstar, because of a suspension. “

Beckham has been suspended for the game pending appeal after committing an NFL record six personal fouls with some out of control reaction to the physical coverage he was getting from the Carolina Panthers. The Giants could be eliminated before the game if the Redskins clinch the NFC East with a win over the Eagles Saturday night.

Despite that, I doubt that anyone is regretting the decision to move the Giants. First, the Eagles and the Redskins are both miserable football teams and the game should effectively be a coin flip (the Eagles opened as four point favorites). But more to the point, the game involves the Giants which means CBS and the NFL Network get the New York market. The guess here is that only the Chicago market is more lucrative and that only because the Bears are the only team in town. Like every other NFC North team, the Vikings have a national following and barring a complete collapse they are probably playoff bound.

They could probably find a better game but networks don’t care about the quality of the match up. They care about viewers. Sometimes that means the average NFL fan loses.

Posted in Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins | Leave a comment

Behind Enemy Lines: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted on December 22, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Things you should know about the Buccaneers as the Bears head out to face them this Sunday in Tampa Bay:

  • Buccaneers running back Doug Martin has 1305 yards rushing on the year in a contract season. That’s only nine yards behind the Vikings Adrian Peterson for the league lead. The Bears did an adequate job stopping Peterson on Sunday and they’ll have to do the same or better against Martin. It will be interesting to see if they choose to put eight in the box against Martin as they did against Peterson or if they choose to try to stop him with the standard seven which has been more their habit this season when facing good running backs.
  • Not to be forgotten in the running back mix is Charles Simms. Simms is one of the best at catching balls out of the backfield this year. He is one of only four running backs in the NFL with at least 400 yards rushing and receiving. The others are Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram and Giovanni Bernard. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Add in the threat of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who returned this month from a shoulder injury that had left him sidelined since week 2, and this is all bad news for the Bears who have struggled to cover both running backs and tight ends with their linebackers. Look for the Buccaneers to take full advantage of that match up.
  • Bears quarterback Jay Cutler will have a reasonable opportunity to get back on track this week. Of course, the Bucs defense might be saying the same thing about the Bears. The Buccaneer’s secondary has been their biggest weakness this year. Opposing quarterbacks have completed a NFL high 69% of their passes against them this year. Opponents have a passer rating of 100.3, fifth highest in the NFL, and its 107.9 the past three games. They’ve made Ryan Mallett, Matt Hasselbeck and Case Keenum look like franchise quarterbacks.
  • On the other hand, the Bucs have been very good against the run. They held Rams rookie Todd Gurley to 48 yards on 21 carries on Thursday. They are tied with Denver for the league lead at 3.3 yards per carry. Again, this doesn’t bode well for the Bears who rely on ball control and defense when they are playing well.
  • This game will be a contest to see who will have the worst first quarter. Like the Bears, the Bucs are becoming notorious for their slow starts. They have averaged just 3.4 points in the first quarter. Greg Auman at the Tampa Bay Times reports:

    “‘It affects your game plan when you’re playing from behind, obviously,’ rookie G Ali Marpet said after Thursday’s 31-23 loss. ‘Our mentality is to run the ball first, and it takes you out of that, which is frustrating.'”

    Tell me about it.

  • The Bucs are also struggling on special teams. They gave up two long kickoff returns to the Rams, a 44-yarder on the opening kickoff to set up a touchdown and a 102-yarder that led to a fourth-quarter field goal. We can hope the Bears are headed in the opposite direction after a good effort Sunday against the Vikings.
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Quo Vadis Kyle Long

Posted on December 21, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune describes the action just after half time yesterday after the Bears began with a successful onsides kick:

“The Bears took over on their own 47-yard line with a chance to score and make it a field goal game. Three plays later, veteran defensive end Brian Robison swiped Kyle Long’s hands and sacked Jay Cutler to force a fumble, the second straight game a defender has come from Cutler’s right to force a turnover.

“‘It was a huge play for us,’ Robison said. ‘You definitely want to try and change the momentum back.’

“With good field position, the Vikings scored quickly as Stefon Diggs came across the middle and wasn’t accounted for in coverage (how many times have we seen that in the past month?) for a 33-yard touchdown. What could have become a 3-point game was a 24-7 game. “

Quarterback Jay Cutler give right tackle Kyle Long an irritated look after Long allows a strip-sack against the Vikings on Sunday, December 20, 2015. (NFL Gamepass)

Quarterback Jay Cutler gives right tackle Kyle Long an irritated look after Long allows a strip-sack against the Vikings on Sunday, December 20, 2015. (NFL Gamepass)

The look that Cutler gave Long after this play (above) pretty much said it all. There’s a certain amount of frustration building over Long’s play for a number of reasons.

A quick look at the Bears roster shows me these offensive linemen:

Vladimir Ducasse, G
Patrick Omameh, G
Matt Slauson, G
Nick Becton, T
Jermon Bushrod, T
Tayo Fabuluje, T
Charles Leno, T
Kyle Long, T
Hroniss Grasu, C

At tackle the Bears have the experienced Bushrod, who could be back to being a starter-quality left tackle as his back heals up. They also have Leno, who is developing into a quality left tackle and may take Bushrod’s place. In that case, Bushrod could play either side. And finally there’s Fabuluje, who has wonderful athleticism and quick feet that might make him valuable on either side (probably the right) with a year of development.

Taken together with Long, the Bears have a glut of good tackles. Long’s absence at guard, on the other hand, has made that situation problematic. Slauson is solid on the left but Omameh misses too assignments and allows too many sacks. Ducasse, whose habit of committing penalties made the overall team problem with this even worse, wasn’t even good enough to hold off Omameh in competition for the right spot. Neither option is really good enough to be a back up much less a starter.

I’m willing to be patient with Long and let him have this year and the offseason to develop. I’m willing to take the coaches’ word and that of most of the members of the media that he’s got the talent to play the tackle position. If the Bears were short at tackle, I probably wouldn’t even be questioning the decision to put him there. But its tough to watch the Bears struggle at guard when they’ve got a more tackles than they know what to do with.

Given all of the above, you’d hate to think the Bears turned a Pro Bowl guard into an average to below average tackle. I wouldn’t like to see them yanking Long around without giving him one position to work at. But I’m continuing to wonder if leaving him at right guard at the beginning of the season wasn’t the best thing to do long-term. And I’m starting to wonder if moving him back wouldn’t be best for everyone.

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Perhaps the Most Worrisome Problem

Posted on December 21, 2015 by Tom Shannon

Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune breaks down a Stefon Diggs 33 yard touchdown pass that seemed to encapsulate the day the Bears had Sunday:

“‘I saw the ball released out of ([quarterback Teddy] Bridgewater‘s) hand and I saw Diggs coming back across the field by himself,’ [cornerback Alan] Ball said. ‘That’s when I realized we were in trouble. … A lot was going on. I need to go back and look and see how that was supposed to be played.'”

Of all the things that bothered Wiederer on this play, and there was, indeed, a lot to digest, the one thing that bugs me the most is that the Bears didn’t straighten this out immediately on the sideline. I think it should have been obvious who had who and not taking care of the problem left the Bears open to making the same mistake again.

What might be worse is if either Ball or Tracy Porter already know who was responsible but was unwilling to be accountable by pointing the finger at himself.

Either way this is a bad sign.

Posted in Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings | Leave a comment