Previewing the Dolphins Game: The Defense

The Miami Dolphins ranked 12th in total defense in the NFL last year. That was primarily because they were 6th in the league against the pass. However they were 24th against the run.  If the rush defense was the primary deficiency, they have moved to correct it.

Despite their nice overall ranking, the Dolphins had their share of troubles last year. They were up and down throughout the season and many blamed defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle for the problem. For instance, after a blowout loss to the Chiefs in September last year, the Dolphins players were reportedly “beyond furious” with the defensive game plan and reporters could hear their vocal displeasure in the locker room after the game. Probably more concerning, the year ended on a down note as there was a significant defensive slide over the last six games where they were particularly poor against the run. Coyle said in the offseason “Finishing is the name of the game. This league, the competition is so fierce, so close, the good teams find ways to win in critical situations. And we need to do that. We need to do that better than we’ve done over the past three years to get from being an 8-8 team to the upper echelon of the league. It’s making plays in crunch time.” Coyle recognizes the problem. It remains to be seen if he understands the considerably more difficult task of finding the solution.

After much uncertainty, Coyle was retained by the team after the season and in the end, the Dolphins decided to correct their problems through him instead of without him. Evidently as a result, the Dolphins have simplified their defensive scheme this year. The claim was that the complexity of the defense stunted the growth of rookies and new players to the team. There have been veterans of the Dolphins who have openly complained about how complex the system was and how much thinking that was done on the field. Indeed, defensive rookies haven’t played much for the Dolphins and it apparently has nothing to do with head coach Joe Philbin’s preference. The defense was reportedly simply too difficult to learn in the first year, especially when you’re a rookie in the NFL.

The Dolphins play a standard 4-3 which, in its simplified form, will probably be similar to the type of front the Bears used over the past decade or more before this year. As most Bears fans will know, when you play such a defense, fundamentals are key. In that respect, the Dolphins have been emphasizing better tackling in the offseason, something that they were notably poor at last year. This will be something to watch on Thursday.

Building a Wall

Those putting together the Dolphins offense might not recognize that games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage. But they definitely have the right idea on defense. This is a rugged group headed by free agent addition Ndamukong Suh. Suh promises to improve the run defense and, perhaps as important, he may help provide for a better pass rush. Outstanding defensive end Cameron Wake promises to be the major beneficiary of the increased attention which Suh will command and Dolphin fans may reasonably expect the pass rush, and therefore the pass defense, to be significantly improved by this signing.

This offseason included questions about Suh’s commitment. Suh had a previous habit of not showing up for OTAs but its one thing not to want to spend months of your precious offseason in Detroit, it’s another thing altogether to pay a man $60 million guaranteed only to have him not show up for workouts in Miami. The Dolphins, somewhat concerned about it, dispatched Mike Tannenbaum to Portland, Oregon to check on their highest paid player. He was happy to find Suh working hard at the Nike state of the art facilities. Suh apparently was spending a great deal of this time there and the Dolphins were satisfied that their investment was safe, something Lions fans could have told them without spending the price of a plane ticket.

Suh has dominated defensive workouts in camp and he’s beaten right guard Billy Turner so badly that the Dolphins replaced him with third stringer Jacques McClendon yesterday at practice. As always, how Bears Pro Bowl right guard Kyle Long does against his familiar foe, Suh, will be entertaining to watch for both Dolphins and Bears fans, even if the stakes are somewhat lower than usual.

One other point worth noting.  The Dolphins signed C.J. Mosley, late in free agency.  He’s a veteran of 10 NFL seasons who was signed as physical, savvy depth.   But there has been a lot of concern over Moseley’s performance in camp.  He is languishing on the third team for the Dolphins and reportedly hasn’t stood out against third-team offensive players. Mosley should be dominating these players and he’s not.  No team stays 100% healthy over the course of the season and the Dolphins are counting on Moseley to perform this year as part of a defensive line rotation where he could eventually be called upon to take on a major role.  Mosely’s performance Thursday night will be something to keep an eye on.

Areas of Competition

Given the quality of the Dolphins run defense and the emphasis on improving the defensive line, this could be one heck of a front seven if they get their linebacker situation straightened out. The position is an area of wide open competition right now with weak side linebacker Jelani Jenkins as the only established starter. Jenkins became a starter in Week 2 last season after Koa Misi and opening-day starter Dannell Ellerbe both were injured in Week 1. He ended up leading the team with 108 tackles to go along with 3.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.

This year Misi, veteran Kelvin Sheppard and second year man Chris McCain are competing to be the other two of the best three linebackers on the team. Misi started last year and Sheppard has started 31 games for the Bills and Colts over his previous 4 year career but McCain has the length and athleticism that coaches look for in an outside linebacker and third-down pass rusher. Currently it looks like it will either be Misi at strong-side linebacker with Sheppard in the middle or McCain on the outside with Misi in the middle. This competition would be better addressed if Misi could stay healthy. He is currently not practicing with a calf injury. His durability is a concern.

The other competition of note for those watching Thursday night will be at cornerback opposite Brent Grimesfor the Dolphins. Jamar Taylor entered camp as something of a front-runner but he is being challenged primarily by free agent pickup Brice McCain. Taylor is a former 2013 second-round pick. He earned some valuable experience at the end of the 2014 season when he started three games in place of injured former cornerback Cortland Finnegan and played reasonably well. McCain has started 86 games over a six year career, most of which was played with the Houston Texans. These guys both look solid to me and it looks like one of those rare camp competitions where the Dolphins win either way.

Bottom Line

I didn’t have a lot of good things to say about a Dolphins offense that appears to have major problems along the offensive line yesterday. But I love this defense and, like Coyle, I’m having a hard time understanding why they slid so far late in the season last year. But I’ll say this. With the addition of Suh and reasonably solid starters everywhere I look, if these guys aren’t’ a wonderful unit to watch in 2015, Coyle should and will be fired. I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing what they do on Thursday night against a Bears offense which is good at the skill positions but which, to my eye, leaves a lot to be desired at the line of scrimmage. These guys are going to be a significant challenge for them.

Points to bear in mind while watching:

  1. Long Vs. Suh. ’nuff said.
  2. Will the Dolphins tackle better than last year.  This is something that’s going to be critical for them over the course of the season.  It’s probably the most common reason why otherwise talented defenses can under-perform.
  3. How will veteran C.J. Mosley look?
  4. Matt Forte (if he plays) and the other Bears running backs against the Dolphins linebackers. This could be an interesting match up as the linebackers in competition on the outside are assigned some reasonably good pass catchers out of the backfield.
  5. Will the Bears be able to run on what should be a much improved Dolphins run defense?
  6. Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and the rest of the Bears passing game against an excellent pass-defending unit. The Dolphins pass rush will be something both teams fans should be interested in keeping an eye on. Wake, in particular, has the potential to eat them alive if they don’t perform well.
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Previewing the Dolphins Game: The Offense

The Miami Dolphins ranked 14th in total offense in the NFL last year. They played with reasonably good balance in that they were 17th in passing and 12th in rushing, being almost equally mediocre in both – statistically that is.

Deep Thinking

The Dolphins hired Bill Lazor to be their offensive coordinator last year, hoping that he’d bring some Chip Kelly magic to the team after he spent time as the Eagles quarterbacks coach. Lazor kept life simple for quarterback Ryan Tannehill in 2014, with a vast majority of his throws targeted at receivers on short and intermediate routes. Tannehill accumulated 1,965 of his passing yards after the catch (11th-most in the NFL), although his YAC percentage was 48.6 (19th), according to Advanced Football Analytics. This sounds OK but it points to the major issue with last year’s Dolphins offense – the lack of explosive downfield plays. Tannehill has a reputation around the league as throwing one of the worst deep balls of any NFL starter.

He wasn’t helped by the presence of wide out Mike Wallace, his only downfield threat at receiver and a disappointment as a Dolphin after signing a huge contract to come over from the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2013. Wallace was criticized for his lack of physicality and fell further out of favor in Miami last season following a Week 17 sideline altercation with head coach Joe Philbin in a loss to the New York Jets. He was benched in the second half, which raised questions about his future with the team. He was traded along with a seventh round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for a fifth round draft pick in the offseason.

Time will tell whether the lack of a deep threat was more due to Wallace or Tannehill. Thanks to a younger, bigger, stronger and faster group of wide receivers this year, in theory Tannehill will have more capable options in the vertical passing game. The hope is that Kenny Stills, acquired in the offseason by trade from the New Orleans Saints, and first round draft pick DeVante Parker may provide a one-two punch of downfield threats and finally force defenses to play a little further back, opening up everything else in the process.

Parker is out with a foot injury and the hope is that he’ll be ready for at least limited snaps by the opener.  Nevertheless, how often the Dolphins throw deep and how effective they are at it will be a point of interest to keep an eye on Thursday night. We will also want to keep an eye on how Wallace does with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback under offensive coordinator Norv Turner in Minnesota this season. Between the two, much will likely be determined in Miami about the reasons for the limitations in their offense, past and/or present.

One last note on the Dolphins’ receiving game. The Dolphins signed Jordan Cameron at tight end while losing Charles Clay in free agency. Clay accounted for a lot of yardage last year but wasn’t particularly effective at scoring touch downs in the red zone where tight ends can become such a huge factor in the game. The hope is that Cameron, a former Pro Bowler, can improve this area of the game and it will be interesting to see if that is evident on Thursday night.

Line Dancing

Lack of a deep threat aside, there has been much offseason hand-wringing amongst fans and media in Miami about the offensive line.  And with some justification.

The Dolphins use a zone blocking scheme, something the Bears will be doing more of this year and it will be interesting to observe their technique along the line. At least where they have the talent to play there.

The Dolphins are well-established at right tackle, where Ja’Wuan James is a solid starter, and at center, where Mike Pouncey is a star. The problems come when you look virtually everywhere else.

They start at left tackle where Branden Albert is normally the best player in this group.  But he has undergone a knee reconstruction. He’s supposed to be ready for the season opener but he hasn’t seen the practice field and no one knows if he’ll be the same coming off of the injury. Jason Fox is supposed to be starting at left tackle in his place but he didn’t play in Saturday’s intra-squad scrimmage and may be injured. Donald Hawkins reportedly is not playing well at the position as Fox’s backup. It will be a bad sign if whoever plays outside linebacker for the Bears on Hawkins’ side on Thursday night, likely either Jared Allen or Pernell McPhee, doesn’t dominate.

Both guard positions are arguably an even bigger problem. Albert at least is a very good player when healthy. But the right guard is Billy Turner, a virtual nobody. How big of a nobody? When looking for biographical information about Turner on the Dolphin’s website the only notation was “No data available”. Other sites where they apparently care more about Turner than the Dolphins do indicate that he was drafted in the third round in 2014 by the team.

Turner has been competing with (and understandably losing to) newly signed defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. In fairness, a likely guess is that, for the purposes of practice in camp, the Dolphins have been often leaving Turner to single block Suh, something that no sane offensive coordinator would do very often in a real game. It will be interesting to watch Turner against the lesser talent along the Bears defensive front to see how well he can be expected to play against normal competition.

The left guard competition is between Dallas Thomas and rookie Jamil Douglas. It sounds like the third year veteran Thomas is winning the competition but that’s not very comforting to many Dolphins fans. Veteran football writer Armando Salguero at the Miami Herald calls Thomas “only good enough to be embroiled in a full-blown competition with a rookie fourth-round pick who is still learning the offense”.

The Dolphins are painfully aware that they have a problem at guard. They sent a committee of players to woo guard La’el Collins, the undrafted standout from LSU, but they were unsuccessful. They were amongst the first teams to call Evan Mathis after the Eagles released him but they are reportedly far apart on money. Still, no one would be surprised if something is done on this front before the season starts.

Bottom Line

The Dolphins are going to be a good opening opponent for the Bears defense with their newly minted 3-4 scheme. Problems along the Miami offensive front should give fans a good idea of where the Bears are in terms of their front seven. Given the Bears’ inexperience in the scheme and the apparent lack of talent in this area, the Miami offense should still be significantly better but not overly so. They should offer just the right degree of competitive challenge to allow some individual Bears players to perform without the team overall being completely buried by a much superior unit.

Points to bear in mind while watching:

  1. How well will the Bears outside linebackers do against a team that should be badly hurting at left tackle?
  2. How will the Dolphins competition at left guard between Thomas and Douglas grade out? How will right guard Turner grade out against fair competition?
  3. How will Bears rookie Eddie Goldman, who shows a fair prospect of starting at nose guard, do facing a Pro Bowl-quality center in Pouncey?
  4. Will Tannehill be able to effectively throw the deep ball against a mediocre Bears defensive backfield that is unlikely to do anything fancy on Thursday night?
  5. Will the Bears linebackers and/or safeties be able to clamp down and keep tight end Cameron out of the end zone?
Posted in Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins | 1 Comment

Warranted Optimism Surrounds the New Bears Coaching Staff

Mark Potash at the Chicago Sun-Times writes a good article about the optimism surrounding new coaching staff. The piece is particularly impressive in its scope and perspective.

Amongst the quotes which stuck out was this one from left guard Matt Slauson:

“‘This is probably the most impressive staff that I’ve been a part of,’ Bears guard Matt Slauson said. ‘I haven’t looked at everybody, but I think every position coach has at least won a conference championship. That is unreal to me.’

“In actuality, nine coaches on John Fox’s staff have been to the Super Bowl, including five position coaches. But the point is, players like Matt Slauson — and he definitely is not alone — respect the fact that from Fox on down, the Bears’ newest coaching staff has credibility the Bears haven’t had since George Halas re-hired himself. And it can make a difference.

“‘I don’t know why other coaches do it differently when they get head [coaching] jobs,’ Slauson said, ‘but they feel the need to hire their buddy or their childhood friend who really has no credentials to be an NFL coach. But it happens all the time. Fox came in. [General manager Ryan] Pace came in and said, ‘We’re going to hire the best of the best.’ and they did that. As players, we notice stuff like that. That’s huge. We love it.'”

Slauson hits the nail on the head in this last paragraph. Each of the last two coaching staffs had faults that prevented them from hiring the best possible staff.

Former head coach Marc Trestman was partly limited because he’d been out of the league and probably wasn’t really in tune with who the best young coaches (like offensive coordinator Adam Gase) even were. But even given that, Trestman hired coaches from his former Canadian team, the Montreal Alouettes in Andy Bischoff and Michael Sinclair as tight ends and defensive line coaches. These were hardly the best available.

But former head coach Lovie Smith was much worse in this respect, consistently looking for coaches that he had personal experience with or coaches he had worked for previously over the best available candidates. Some of these, like former defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, worked out fine. But the memorable standoff between Smith and former general manager Jerry Angelo over who would be the offensive coordinator in 2010 stands out as a good example of Smith’s closed minded attitude. Angelo forced Smith to interview a variety of candidates but Smith was set on Martz, who he’d previously worked with in St. Louis. In the end, Smith got his way and though they didn’t do badly that year, long term the organization suffered for the choice.

Even worse than Smith’s discomfort with coaches he didn’t personally know was the suspected reason for his hesitation to hire the best available candidates. Smith may well have been an adherent to the old philosophy that you should never hire your own replacement. Smith’s insecurity and fear of losing credit and power to a really good coach may have been an issue with Smith.  Recall that Smith more or less fired former defensive coordinator Ron Rivera for more or less not agreeing with Smith’s entire defensive philosophy.  Some would have said that the Bears defense was benefiting from the creative tension but Smith’s pride and the fact that Rivera got no small amount of credit for the excellent performance of the defense was undoubtedly a factor.

Regardless, Fox suffers from no such limitation. Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio are or should be on every team’s radar as potential head coaching candidates. This doesn’t seem to bother Fox in the least.

As Potash points out, there’s alway s a lot of optimistic talk about new coaching staffs the first year. But there may be more reason than usual to believe that this time around, the optimism is warranted. This season, we may finally see a Bears team play to their talent level and beyond.

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All Triumphs Great and Small

I’m not one to put much stock in training camp reports. It’s a time of year when everything is sunshine and rainbows and unless you live in southern California, the sun doesn’t shine every day.

Having said that, I very much enjoyed Rich Campbell‘s report for the Chicago Tribune this morning. Of the “five observations” which he made on yesterday’s training camp session, three involved notable adjustments or corrections by individual players who had made previous mistakes. Right tackle Jordan Mills, who reportedly got beat like a drum by outside linebacker Pernell McPhee in one-on-one drills Sunday, stood up a lot better on Monday with what he said was better hand work. Safety Brock Vereen, who got beat previously on a gadget play, showed more awareness and stayed deep on on Monday to help break up a similar play. And finally second year cornerback Kyle Fuller made a play to break up a Martellus Bennett fade route, reportedly by keeping his eyes on the catch point. In addition, Dan Wiederer, also at the Chicago Tribune, notes that Tim Jennings, though still uncomfortable covering in the slot, is operating with noticably sharper vision and that he’s reacting much more quickly. And Dan Cahill at the Chicago Sun-Times notes that quarterback Jay Cutler is turnover free five days into camp.

These are all little things but they emphasize something that’s critically important for a young Bears defense in 2015. They may be talent poor but good football teams can make up for a lot by simply being fundamentally sound. You can’t make up for all of it. But you can make up for a lot of it. And you can reasonably expect to be competitive.

Having said that, Bears fans who think this might be a playoff team are fooling themselves. I’m not saying its impossible – anything is possible, especially in the NFL. But I think they are setting themselves up for disappointment. And that would be a shame.

Fans who believe that high expectations are necessary and that seasons without 10 wins are a failure are missing the point. Team victories on the field are nice and, of course, that’s the goal. But, no matter the talent level and no matter the expectations, the true football fan is going to have to find enjoyment in the small items this year. Bears players, like all the rest of us in our daily lives, will need to find their share of satisfaction in the little things, the day-to-day improvements as they gradually climb towards respectability and, eventually, top level competition. These wins are much more frequent than Super Bowls and if you are only going to be happy with the latter, you are going to be a pretty miserable soul.

In his classic work of fiction, The Prophet, author Kahlil Gibran wrote, “And in the sweetness of friendship let there be laughter and the sharing of pleasures. For in the dew of little things the heart finds its morning and is refreshed.” This year, like every year, we will all find much more happiness if we take the time to note the small victories and enjoy them as often as possible.

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You’ve Come a Long Way, Baby. But Not Long Enough.

Groucho Marx once famously said that “Women should be obscene and not heard.” Fortunately, women have never taken his advice. At least not the second part.

The recent news that Jen Welter will join the Arizona Cardinals coaching staff for the summer follows the announcement last July that Sarah Thomas will become the NFL’s first female game official this year. Welter will help coach the team’s inside linebackers during training camp and the preseason only and her role isn’t a long-term job, as she’ll be a coaching intern during the summer.  But it’s still an NFL first and has the potential to lead to further opportunities.

Add this to the news that Beth Mowins will be the Raiders preseason game announcer and that Jacqueline Davidson will be the new director of football administration for the Jets and we have a storm of empowerment for women brewing.  I’d say the NFL is making real progress.

I’ve always said that most NFL owners don’t care who you are, what your race is or what your creed is as long as you can play football.  Gay? Who cares? As long as they can help you win.  That stance should, and generally does, apply to employees off the field as well.

Unfortunately the NFL’s attitude towards women has been slow to develop but gradually the reality of the situation is dawning and slowly taking over their thinking. They aren’t asking women to be linebackers or even kickers and, media agenda aside, that’s not likely to happen any time soon. But coaches? Television announcers? Game officials?  Scouting and front office?  These are positions which women not only can fill but which we should demand that they fill. Loudly.

As an NFL fan, I want to see the best available product on the field. I’ve no doubt that every owner and player in the league feels the same way. But that will never happen when 50% of the population is excluded from jobs to which they are perfectly suited. Here’s hoping that the “2015 NFL Year of the Woman” becomes an annual affair.

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The Bears May Learn the Real Meaning of the Term “Accountability” in 2015

John Mullin at csnchicago.com surprises me as he writes about where the Bears will find leadership this year. Near the end of the article, he addresses the change in the coaching staff in uncharacteristically forthright terms:

“If you don’t think coaching stands to have an enormous impact on wins and losses, then you don’t fully understand what coaches do and how players value coaches.

“One of the main reasons the previous staff failed was that players deep down did not believe that many of the [former Bears head coach Marc] Trestman assistants knew the NFL game. And they didn’t. More to the bigger point, because of that, the coaches were not able give players the schemes, applications of technique and other details that players crave, the things that give them the best chances to be successful.”

I’m as tough on the Bears as anybody. But I think Mullin might be just a bit unfair to the former staff here.  It’s the kind of thing that tends to be said only after a group of coaches leaves town.  The truth is that Trestman had been out of the league but he had extensive NFL experience, as did defensive coordinator Mel Tucker and most of the assistants. You can’t tell me that offensive Aaron Kromer didn’t have the respect of the offensive linemen or that those linemen didn’t believe that Kromer could make them better. He’d done it way too often with otherwise mediocre talent in New Orleans for that not to be true. The former staff certainly had their faults (see below) but I think there’s a little bit of “hindsight is 20-20” going on here.

Having said that, Mullin’s point is well taken in that there’s no doubt that the Bears have improved their coaching staff. It’s just not in the way that he’s stated it.

The one thing that the former staff did a poor job of was instilling the kind of mental toughness that’s necessary to succeed as a team in the NFL. For example, I was struck this morning by this quote from quarterback Jay Cutler on the effect that injuries had on the Bears last year. Via Jay Taft at the Rockford Register-Star:

“Even before training camp opened this week, and before the pads were slipped on for Saturday’s practice, quarterback Jay Cutler laid out what he thinks it will take to get the Chicago Bears’ offense back on track.

“‘You get injuries,’ he said, ‘you lose games.’

In Cutler’s mind, injuries at least kick-started the derailment that led to a 5-11 season and to the firings of head coach Marc Trestman and GM Phil Emery.”

I’ll say this much for Cutler. He got the first part of that statement right. You do, indeed, “get injuries”. Everybody, every single team every single year, gets them. And if you are sitting around hoping that it doesn’t happen and implying that this is a key to your season, you’re in trouble.

Good football teams, the ones that win year after year, never let injuries stop them from winning. You plan on having them and you plan on having to get tough to overcome them. Anything less is simply failure.

Former Bears head coach Lovie Smith knew that and he never, ever, let players use injuries as an excuse for underperforming. He wouldn’t even let them talk about it.  When Smith said “next man up“ after an injury, he really meant it.  Last season’s Bears frequently said the same thing and I’m sure they thought that they meant it, too.  The problem is that when it came time to actually back up their words, they couldn’t dig down deep enough to prove it on the field and the season fell apart.

It’s hard to say for sure but new head coach John Fox already shows signs of having the same sort of tough-minded attitude that Smith had. The way that Fox shrugged off the brief tussle between guard Kyle Long and defensive end Jarvis Jenkins on Friday and the contrast to the way Trestman handled such issues with an excess of handwringing was notable. There won’t be much sitting around the camp fire, holding hands and singing “Kumbaya” at this camp. Fox shows every sign of expecting his players to be mentally and physically tough and the odds are good that, like Smith, he’s not going to allow players to make excuses.

Players always talk about “accountability” when it comes to performance. They talk about stepping up when necessary and overcoming adversity.  They talk about pointing the finger at themselves when that doesn’t happen. The problem is that too often it’s just lip service. What’s even worse, too often the players themselves don’t know when it’s just lip service. Hopefully this year’s coaching staff will be able to teach the current version of the Bears the difference.

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Surprising New Positional Placements Already Show Themselves as Training Camp Opens

John Mullin at csnchicago.com posts the intriguing idea that some of the draft picks from the Phil Emery era that appeared to have been on their way to busting might actually benefit from the scheme change on defense. In particular he makes a good case that Will Sutton, who was universally considered to be a on the way out as a misfit in the 3-4 scheme, might find a place in it. Perhaps even more surprising, he’s being tried at nose tackle, not defensive end:

“Although Sutton was drafted to be a speed-based three-technique, he had played in a two-gap 4-3 at Arizona State. Meaning: While he doesn’t bring classic mass at nose tackle, he is not unfamiliar with the blocker-control elements of the Bears’ new system.”

Mullin further reports that Ego Ferguson, who I considered to be a natural fit at nose tackle, was asked to lose weight to play defensive end.

I will be fascinated to hear what the reasoning is for putting each of these men into their respective positions. Though teams typically talk about making do with lighter men at nose tackle when they don’t have the classic, massive body type available, I’m surprised that they actually putting the lighter Sutton at nose tackle by choice while asking the heavier Ferguson to lose weight to play end.

Obviously there’s more to placing these players into their positions that body type. For instance, perhaps Sutton is more sudden with tight movements whereas Ferguson moves with better speed given more space. In any case, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and/or defensive line coach Jay Rodgers have seen something to change up what we all thought were slam dunk decisions.

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Are the Bears Really the Worst Team in the NFL?

I’m sorry for my long absence from this space but they’ve been asking me to work for a living this summer and my life has been busy.  You may, however, rest assured that I’ve been following Bears news very closely.  To prove it, I’ll quote this article from this morning’s Chicago Tribune by Bernie Lincicome which asks the question from which this post takes its title:

“This Bears team is no better than the one that lost its last five games, and probably a worse one, a team that has permission to be as awful as it should be, a team marking time until it can rid itself of [quarterback JayCutler, lose the well worn Matt Forte as well, and become relevant again.”

I recently represented the Bears on a podcast where the host asked me what I thought would be a good year for the Bears.  He stated that though the Bears were down, he still thought they would place third in the division.  It was everything I could do to keep from laughing at him.

Most fans around the NFL really don’t understand why the local fans are so down on the Bears.  That’s because they didn’t have to watch them every week for the last 10 games of last season.  Some of those fans from other cities might, maybe, have seen their teams blown out, giving up 50 points in a game.  Less would have seen a game where almost all of those points were scored by halftime.  I’d venture that none of them have ever had to see it two game weekends in a row in their entire lives.

As a Patriots fan, that host will never know what its like to have a quarterback and his girl friend flash up a “51” signal on Twitter after a defeat of his team.  Very few others will have any idea what its like to see such a thing followed by having the quarterback for the team’s biggest rival complain about having a sore back from standing on the sidelines and watching for so long the very next game.  The Chicago Bears weren’t just a bad football team.  They were a laughing stock.  A soft, squishy, weak, roll-over-and-play-dead laughing stock.

Fans from other places see the Cubs and the White Sox and the Bulls and the Blackhawks and they don’t understand.  Once training camp starts, all anyone talks about around here is football.  To endure a season like the one last year literally left people not wanting to get out of bed on Monday.

I say this to you in dead seriousness.  As bad as they were last year, I’d have rather been a Tennessee Titans fan than a Bears fan.  At least they were competitive and fought in every game.  Indeed, even the much maligned Buccaneers managed to hang tough most of the time.

I don’t mind rooting for a loser.  But I can’t stand rooting for a loser that consistently goes belly up and quits.  That’s what the Bears did last year for most of the last 2/3 of the season.  They disgraced the citizens of a tough-minded city that literally lives and dies with the sport.

Will they be the worst team in 2015?  It depends.  Virtually everyone agrees that you aren’t going to be able to depend on the defense.  New coaches will help but the last I checked, coaches still need talent to win football games and proven talent outside of defensive lineman Jeremiah Ratliff is hard to come by on that side of the ball.

Fans like to point to the proven talent on offense and there’s a lot to like at the skill positions.  Lincicome may not think much of Forte but I do.  And there’s tight end Martellus Bennett, assuming he doesn’t let his contract situation affect his play.  And I like Alshon Jeffery better than any wide receiver in the division outside of Calvin Johnson.  People like to point to the Packers Jordy Nelson but fail to account for the fact that Nelson has Aaron Rodgers and that Jeffery has never had a quarterback throw him open in his entire career.  That’s because Jeffery has Cutler.  And as good as some of the players on that offense are, I can’t imagine Cutler finally learning to throw with anticipation to a receiver or becoming any more mentally tough at the age of 32.  Add that to a renewed reliance on the running game without revamping the offensive line that couldn’t block for it last year and I can’t imagine this team will ever ride the back of the offense to win when it counts.

But these problems won’t be what will determine whether the Bears are the worst team in football in 2015.  What will make the difference is what made them the worst team in my book in 2014.  Given that they won’t be able to get out there and play linebacker for them, the real challenge that this coaching staff faces is to instill some guts in this group.  If they do, I would call that progress.

On the other hand, if this team doesn’t find itself some heart, we’re in for another unwatchable nightmare.

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Disconnect #1: The Bears Will Have Offensive Success Running the Ball

I’ve never been one to post too this site simply for the sake of posting. And I haven’t posted much lately largely because there isn’t much to post about. The offseason is just that and if you need any evidence for the paucity of interesting information about the Bears, look no further than the crap that passes for “news” at the Chicago Sun-Times lately.

Nevertheless, there are issues that fans will want to pay attention to as training camp starts next month. One that hasn’t gotten much attention is the growing disconnect that I see between what the coaching staff plans to do and what the talent on the team will allow them to do. In fairness, most of this is based upon media speculation. Coaches don’t usually just volunteer to lay out all of their plans (on the record), even those that exist before the pads come on.

Issue number one for me is the Bears apparent plan to run the ball more this season. Don’t get me wrong. It’s not a bad plan, at least ordinarily. And its generally recognized that you do need to at least attempt to run the ball a certain percentage of the time to keep defenses honest.  But when the coaches talk about it, you have to wonder if they’ve actually watched the film from last season.

The Bears ranked 21st in yards and 23rd in total points last year but they were 27th in rushing, near the bottom of the league. Matt Forte set a league record for receiving yards by a running back. Most fans and some members of the media attribute that to former head coach Marc Trestman‘s reluctance to run the ball. But few people bother to think about why he was reluctant to run the ball.

Facing frequent two deep safety coverage for most of the year in 2014 with seven or less in the box, the Bears were in a prime position to gain yardage on the ground. Yet time after time, they were stopped in their tracks. The reason is simple: they couldn’t block it.

Even before the last season bloggers such as myself were calling for changes on an offensive line that was exceptionally healthy in 2013. Those changes weren’t made and the Bears paid the price.

Once again, few changes have been made to the offensive line in the offseason for the Bears this year despite the fact that neither left tackle Jermon Bushrod nor right tackle (for now) Jordan Mills have been healthy. Indeed, the line has arguably taken a step back with Will Montgomery stepping in for Roberto Garza at center. Even if rookie center Hroniss Grasu takes the job, he’s undersized and the odds are good that run blocking isn’t going to be his strength.

So it’s a great plan but the question remains, “How are the Bears going to run the ball more?” The only real hope is that a change in blocking scheme will allow an offense filled with personnel that play with more finesse than power to maximize their potential. But its a slim hope, one that most fans and, more to the point, most of the coaches shouldn’t bank on. How healthy the offensive line is and how they perform heading into the season will be one pretty good indication of how the offense as a whole will go. But even then, a plan based to heavily upon success in the running game seems to be one fraught with peril.

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The One-Sided Nature of the NFL Compensation Structure Explained

John Mullin at csnchicago.com takes a thoughtful and interesting look at the contract situations of both running back Matt Forte and tight end Martellus Bennett. One general statement that he makes stands out to me:

“Understand that the matter of contracts are anything but simple, much more complicated than just declaring, ‘you’ve got a contract, you have to honor it.’ The problem with that, as Brian Urlacher once correctly noted, when teams want (read: ‘demand’) a player to take a pay cut, the public rarely applies that dictum to teams, only when a player is demanding a pay raise. That’s just the nature of the NFL compensation structure.”

Make no mistake. By “public” Urlacher and Mullin both mean “fans”. And there’s a reason for this bias.

The advent of free agency was a great boon for players in all sports leagues where it exists. But it’s created a bit of a problem for them as well. Any player anywhere can, and frequently does, choose to leave. That means that the only thing a fan knows he can depend upon to be there in future years, assuming there’s good support, is the team. And that makes most people fans of the franchise, not the individual players. Add on the fact that the player might be saying, “I want more money” but fans hear, “I want you to pay more for tickets” and you’ve got your explanation for the one-sided nature of public opinion.

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