Month: March 2015

A Realistic Look at the Bears Progress in Free Agency

Hub Arkush at chicagofootball.com gives his view on the Bears progress in free agency to date:

“[Antrel] Rolle is old by NFL standards, there’s no other way to spin it. But at 26 and 28, respectively, [Pernell] McPhee and [Eddie] Royal fill screaming needs in the Bears starting lineup and are more than likely to still be in their primes if the Bears can contend in 2016 or 2017.

“[Ray] McDonald is 30 but has been extremely durable, and there is no reason short of additional off the field concerns that he can’t stay in his prime for two, three or four years. Jarvis Jenkins will be 27 in April, Mason Foster just turned 26 and Vladimir Ducasse is 27.

“Jenkins and Ducasse are former second-round picks and McDonald and Foster were threes, and all but Ducasse are certain starters or important rotation players on Day 1.

“With all four players on one-year deals with little or no guaranteed money, the Bears have taken no risk while adding two extra second-round picks and two extra third-round choices.”

I’m open to the idea that the Bears got younger with ascending players… potentially ascending players. But to state that the Bears added “two extra second-round picks and two extra third-round choices”? I can’t buy that.

The Bears added two second-round picks and two third-round choices who didn’t work out. If they had, they would have gotten paid instead of taking one-year minimum benefit prove it deals. They are all four potential starters – at this point three are probable starters. But also at this point mediocre starters overall.  You could potentially include Royal, McPhee and Rolle in that as well.  The Bears are counting on each being better than he was last year.

The hope is, of course, that the Bears can develop or otherwise use the talent that made these players second and third rounders better than their previous teams. Maybe they can. But I’d say that it’s more likely that out of Jenkins, Foster, and Ducasse you might have one that you’ll want to keep at the end of the season. That’s a more realistic result of the Bears progress in free agency to date.

Real Respect

Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune quotes Bears Chairman George McCaskey on why he proposed a rule change at the meetings that would guarantee both teams possession in overtime.

“‘A show of respect for the Packers,’ McCaskey said.

“He explained how he became compelled after watching his rivals lose the NFC championship game to the Seahawks on a first-possession touchdown pass.

“‘If you’re a Bears fan, of course, that was a great result,’ McCaskey said.”

That’s an odd way of saying that you respect someone.

Rival or not I make it a policy to never root against teams. I root for teams.

Here’s my way of showing proper respect: I thought the Packers had an under-rated defense that played their guts out and deserved better than they got.

I look forward to the day when Packers fans might might be able to honestly say the same thing about the Bears.

Yet Another Jay Cutler Post. Sorry.

I’m sorry. I really am. At minimum any of you who regularly read these posts are probably tired of me bashing quarterback Jay Cutler. There comes a point where if you do it enough you actually start to generate sympathy for him. Some of you may already be there. Again, I’m sorry.

I admit that these posts satisfy a driving need in me. I’m powerless to influence the people who matter and this is the only thing I can do. At some point – a point very soon – I’ll stop putting up a post every time Bears head coach John Fox or general manager Ryan Pace makes even a remote attempt to defend Cutler or imply that he can fix him. Now that they’ve decided to stick with Cutler, whether Fox actually wants him or not, it’s his job to do what he can to rehabilitate him. I know that. But fear that he actually will fool himself into thinking it can be done at a critical time when its realistic to cut Cutler loose impels me to vent on this site. I’ll get over it. I promise.

jay-cutler-3

In the mean time, Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune scares me as he quotes Fox, who comments on Cutler:

“[Fox] saw a player whose struggles seemed to weigh him down.

“‘Maybe he got to the point where he lacked confidence a year ago,’ Fox said. ‘To build that back up, it’s going to take time. Daily. It takes trust, like any relationship.'”

I’m wondering if Fox gets it. I wonder if he understands that’s what Cutler is. He loses confidence and his struggles don’t just weigh him down, they weigh everyone down. Fox continues:

“‘Unless you have success it’s hard to have confidence,’ Fox said. ‘… I’ve always started with practice. I call them mini games. Try to structure them that way. This is all about what to do, how to do it and do it under pressure. That is what we do.'”

Fox has a point in that this is generally the way to build a team. But its combined with finding the right players to respond to that kind of motivation. For every person out there who builds confidence with success there’s at least one who can never find success because they lack the gene. I’m now convinced that Cutler is one of those guys. Rich Campbell at the Chicago Tribune tells Wiederer in this video that in listening to Fox talk it feels like “the final act” for Cutler. That’s probably because, whether he understands it or not, Campbell has seen almost as much of Cutler as most Bears fans have and he knows on some level that in a, as he puts it, “results-based business” Cutler’s never going to produce.

Is it possible to get to the point with Cutler where success breeds confidence and where he will perform at his best in a really big game? Anything is possible. But in order to get to the point where success breeds confidence you have to start somewhere where some degree of confidence breeds success. My guess is that you can build things little by little with small successes leading to big successes with many young NFL athletes who aren’t fragile by nature. Fox thinks he can build that by creating competition in practice. But there will always come that time in a real game when Cutler won’t be able to fool you – when they won’t be able to just run the football and the team is up against it and the breaks are beating the boys and you have to nut up and come through. Cutler’s well into his 30s and he is what he is. And I think he’s destined to always let you down when you need him most.

That’s what a loser is. I just hope that some how Fox comes to that decision sooner rather than later.

Some Life Lessons And Other Points of View

Bears

    • I’m trying to avoid a knee jerk reaction to the Bears questionable signing of defensive end Ray McDonald. Let’s just say I’m a bit disturbed by the repetitive nature of his apparent transgressions and leave it at that until I can get some more of my questions answered.
    • Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune reports that the Bears have signed defensive end Jarvis Jenkins. Patrick Finley at the Chicago Sun-Times reports that they also signed linebacker Mason Foster. Kevin Patra at nfl.com characterizes Jenkins as “a mediocre run defender” that “provides little in terms of a pass rush”. Connor Orr at the same site is more positive about Foster, saying that he’s durable and that his “ability to defend the pass — Foster has five picks over the last four years, including two returned for touchdowns — should also help add some much-needed range and versatility to a dusty Bears front seven”.

      The good news is that they’re on one-year prove it deals. The bad news?

      Jenkins record as a Washington Redskin: 17-31

      Foster’s record as a Buccaneer: 17-47

      I know that beggars can’t be choosers but do these guys sound like winners to you? Just sayin’…

    • John Mullin at csnchicago.com says that former Bears linebacker Lance Briggs could be headed to either Tampa Bay or San Francisco. Briggs still has a year or two left in him but I think he pretty much burned his bridges in Chicago with stunts like missing practice for the famous “Double Nickel Barbecue” opening the first week of the NFL season. This could be good signing for teams with coaches who have better control of their players.

Its pretty rare when a re-draft gives the Bears the same player that they actually took in retrospect. But that’s what happened when Bucky Brooks at nfl.com did a re-draft of 2014 and still gave the Bears Kyle Fuller.

Elsewhere

  • Running back Michael Bush reacts to his time in the forty yard dash at the NFL Veteran Combine. Via Patrick Finley at the Chicago Sun-Times:

    “It was an unofficial time, but the 4.91-second 40-yard dash crushed the former Bears running back. Visibly dazed, his face acted out the five stages of grief in the next five minutes.”

  • Marc Sessler at nfl.com on the NFL Veterans Combine: “It was like watching Old Yeller get shot 105 times”.
  • Steve Rosenbloom at the Chicago Tribune on the NFL Draft coming to Chicago: “Thank God we didn’t get the Olympics.” Amen to that.
  • Cleveland emerged as the favorite to be on the HBO series “Hard Knocks” over the weekend. Pat McManamon at ESPN doesn’t think it would be good for quarterback Johnny Manziel to be on the show his first camp coming out of rehab. I’d tend to agree. Personally I have almost no hope that Manziel will ever be a decent NFL quarterback but if he’s to have any shot at it, minimizing distractions is going to be critical. Manziel would probably make everyone in Cleveland happiest if he got off Twitter and kept his mouth shut as much as possible with limited media exposure. That might be his only hope.
  • nfl.com‘s Bucky Brooks has quarterback Marcus Mariota falling to New Orleans at 13 slot in the first round. I doubt he’d get any lower than that but I guess you never know. He has the Bears taking wide receiver Amari Cooper.
  • The time for Adrian Peterson and his agent Ben Dogra to face facts and accept that Peterson is playing for Minnesota or nobody next year is fast approaching. Rather than quote the whole article, I’ll just refer you to Mike Florio‘s post at profootballtalk.com and leave it at that.
  • Kind of having a hard time understanding why the Lions wouldn’t pick up Riley Reiff‘s fifth year option but if they’re going to, they aren’t saying so. Good offensive linemen don’t grow on trees. Or maybe they do. I’ve always been a little mixed up on that “birds and the bees” thing. Via Dave Birkett at the Detroit Free Press.
  • Rob Demovsky at ESPN details the problems the Packers currently have at inside linebacker. Both A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones were released last month. How bad is it? The depth chart at espn.com doesn’t even list a second starter.

One Final Thought

Laura Pavin quotes former Bears tight end Desmond Clark on how his life turned around:

“When one of his dad’s drug-dealing friends began trying to recruit Clark into a life of drug dealing, his cousin, also a crack addict, became furious. She told him that Clark was meant for more than the life she, his dad and his brother — who was selling drugs — were leading.

“‘I walked out of the house that day feeling a little different about myself, thinking ‘Hey, maybe I can be something beyond this situation,’ said Clark, 37. ‘As I grew up, what I took from that was that you can speak life into other people.'”

When I started reading this article, I thought it was going to be the typical “My mother was a saint and helped me come from nothing to the NFL” kind of read. Instead, it was surprisingly good with some interesting life lessons. It’s recommended reading.

Avoiding Potentially Bad Situations

Florida State v Boston College

Brendan Sonnone at the Orlando Sentinel quotes NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on the possibility that likely first overall pick Jameis Winston won’t attend the draft:

“‘I think that it’s something we respect when a player says, ‘I’d like to be with my family on that day,’’ Goodell told SI. ‘It’s an important day for them also.'”

Sonnone also points out that Winston “could be subject to boos from various fans at the draft – a time-honored tradition”. He’s got a point. Some might remember what happened when a Florida State employee inexplicably asked fans to Tweet questions to Winston using the #AskJameis tag. Let’s just say that some of the responses were creative. I doubt very much that either Florida State or Winston has forgotten the lesson – you take your chances when you expose yourself to a public situation that is largely out of your control.

Though Winston’s problems are of his own making, I could hardly blame him for declining the invitation.

When Just Drafting a Quarterback Isn’t Enough

Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune passes on comments from Bears general manager Ryan Pace indicating that he will likely take a quarterback in the NFL draft in five weeks. He’s not ruling out Marcus Mariota in the first round:

“And not only that, if Pace does make such a move five weeks from now, it likely won’t be the last time he takes a draft-weekend swing at the position.

“Said Pace: ‘I think it’s a good idea to add a quarterback every year.'”

“‘It’s a critical position,’ Pace said. ‘Because of that you can take a swing every year at it. Increase your odds.'”

I, like all of the other fans in Chicago, have heard this statement now from Jerry Angelo, Phil Emery and now Pace. So you’ll excuse me if I’m a bit skeptical.  I’ve little doubt that Pace will take a quarterback this year.  But beyond that past experience tells me that other team needs have a bad habit of taking precedence and before you know it, its the sixth round and you’re looking at taking yet another guy who ha virtually no shat at being anything other than a back up.

The other thing to point out – and I believe this is more important – is that just taking a quarterback isn’t enough. It’s far more critical (and more difficult) to develop one. Getting the right quarterback coach is crucial to the future success at the position and, therefore, of the franchise. Whether current quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains is the right guy for the job is, at minimum, an open question. But regardless perhaps the Bears should consider adding a new coach who knows something about quarterbacks until they get that position right, too.

Bad Drafts May Mean Bad Things for the Lions

Nick_Fairley_2012The Bears aren’t the only ones who have blown a lot of draft picks recently. In fact, its amazing that the Lions have had the recent success that they have, given their dismal record. Josh Katzenstein at the Detroit News notes that with the departures of both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley (above), they have no draft picks left on the roster from either the 2010 or 2011 draft classes. I’ve maintained in recent years that off field concerns are overrated, noting that players like Ben Roethlisberger rarely miss too many games after notorious off field incidents. I may have to reconsider that stance given the state of the particularly dismal Lions 2011 class:

“‘I think ’11 wasn’t a good draft for us. I didn’t do a good job in ’11,’ Mayhew said. ‘I think I was overly aggressive. I learned a lot from that, and our drafts have improved since then.

“Mayhew declined to explain what he meant about being overly aggressive.”

“Four of the five picks all had off-field problems early in their careers — Fairley, [Mikel] Leshoure and [Johnny] Culbreath were arrested on marijuana-related charges — as well as dedication issues. Fairley’s commitment issues are well documented, particularly with his consistent weight problem.

“[Titus] Young thought he was better than Calvin Johnson and became moody when he didn’t play. Leshoure was late or inattentive in meetings and showed no signs of improvement during his time in Detroit.”

Michael David Smith at profootballtalk.com points out that the next three players taken after Fairley were Robert Quinn, Mike Pouncey and Ryan Kerrigan. All made Pro Bowls. Young is now facing prison after a string of arrests.

This all points to one fact – Suh was such a hit that he was likely a good part of the reason why the team was winning despite the fact that general manager Martin Mayhew otherwise totally botched two straight drafts. The other reason – Johnson – is still with the team but you have to wonder if the Lions aren’t going to take a serious fall down to the level of where the Bears were last year in the division.

Another Example of How Statistics Lie

Derek-Carr1

John McTigue at ESPN Stats and Information thinks that Oakland should give up on quarterback Derek Carr and draft Marcus Mariota:

“On the surface Carr’s rookie campaign compares favorably to other recent seasons by rookie QBs. He threw fewer interceptions (12) and completed a higher percentage of passes (58.1 percent) than Andrew Luck did (18, 54.1 percent) and he was the ninth rookie since the merger to throw at least 20 touchdown passes (21).

“A deeper dive into Carr’s numbers suggest his 2014 season left a lot to be desired, however. Carr finished the season with a 38.4 Total QBR, which ranked 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. His QBR didn’t rank favorably among other recent rookies, either. Of the 27 rookies to qualify since 2006 — as far back as Total QBR data goes — Carr’s QBR ranks 15th, sandwiched between EJ Manuel (38.4) and Geno Smith (35.9).

“Carr’s QBR suffered because of minimal gains made on his passes. He averaged a mere 5.46 yards per attempt last season, which was not only worst in the NFL last season, it was one of the worst all time.”

This seems to me to be a prime example of why stats are for losers. Can you name one wide receiver on the Oakland roster from last year? How about a tight end? Neither could I. A review of the list of receivers that Carr was dealing to at the end of the year includes such stars as Mychal Rivera and James Jones. Carr’s yards per attempt were so low because running backs routinely led the team in receptions.

I’ll tell you what. If the Raiders wat to take an unknown quantity like Mariota and then trade Carr and a second round pick to the Bears for their first round pick, I’m totally game. Bears fans may not have a good idea of what a quarterback looks like but we certainly know what one doesn’t. I think we’d take Carr in a second.

The Rich Get Richer. The Bears Don’t. Yet.

Dan Wiederer at the Chicago Tribune reports that the Bears once again received no compensatory draft picks.

These can be as high as third round picks depending upon the nature of the lost free agents the year before. For instance, the Lions could receive a third round pick in 2016 after the loss of Ndamukong Suh. The acquisition on Haloti Ngata after the loss of Suh was by trade and wouldn’t count against them in the formula used to calculate who gets what picks.

It’s easy to dismiss these often low round picks as being unimportant but they’re not. As has been said many times, the draft is a crap shoot and the more rolls of the dice you get, the more likely it is you’ll come up with a good player. The rich get richer in this respect because the good teams tend to be the ones that lose the good players. The Broncos, Chiefs and Seahawks all received four compensatory picks and the Ravens and Texans were awarded three apiece.

Meanwhile the Bears are stuck in what amounts to a catch 22. They have to sign free agents to make up for misses in the draft and they’re more likely to miss in the draft because they don’t have enough picks. Last year the Bears signed a slew of players – defensive ends Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston and Willie Young plus safety Ryan Mundy. This year they’ve already signed linebacker Pernell McPhee, safety Antrel Rolle, guard Vladimir Ducasse and wide receiver Eddie Royal. As Brad Biggs at the Chicago Tribune points out, they’re likely to sign quite a few more as they bargain hunt in the secondary free agent market:

“One veteran agent described it as a stare-down between clubs and players. Clubs are looking for budget buys with the goal of signing many players to minimum-salary-benefit deals. Players who thought they would be in line for something more are still trying to wrap their minds around the idea of playing for less. Both sides are waiting for the other to blink.”

“The Bears need to add defensive linemen. Jeremiah Ratliff and Ego Ferguson are likely to line up at nose tackle. The options at defensive end are not quite as clear. Coach John Fox said the ideal player for the scheme is a ‘longer three technique.’ Of course, the model for the position is the Texans’ J.J. Watt, but aspiring to find a player with his skill set and actually doing it are two different things.”

The Bears are also said to be interested in center Stefen Wisniewski.  They will need to sign a considerable number of other players to fill out the depth chart as well. Some of those signings could come at the league meetings which are currently being conducted – Adam Jahns at the Chicago Sun-Times points out that agents are working the hallways and courtyards of the Arizona Biltmore in Phoenix.  All of these signing could count against them.

No one is suggesting that teams aren’t being penalized when they lose a free agent – the compensatory draft pick is never close to the same value as the free agents lost. Nevertheless, the draft is the life blood of every team and those picks can become valuable players acquired for a cheap price. I look forward to the day when the Bears will be getting more chances to hit the lottery in this respect because it means that they will be ranked amongst the elite franchises. The only way that they’re going to get there is to start consistently hitting on the few draft picks they have, alleviating the need to run out and sign free agents to fill holes all over the field.  They also have to resist the temptation to make the splash signings that can often look better on paper than on the field.  Fortunately general manager Ryan Pace seems to be avoiding the temptation to do that. Again, fro Jahns:

“The win-now pressure that seemed to drive Emery isn’t as prevalent. Pace, who will meet with the Chicago media on Tuesday, is widely regarded in league circles to have a big rebuild on his hands, and the draft is the best way to do that.

Until the Bears are finished rebuilding, fans just have to be patient and wait for success to come their way.  Fortunately, this time it looks like it might be the proper way.

Digital NFL? I’m Game.

OECD-internet-economy

Patrick Finley at the Chicago Sun-Times reports one of the more under the radar moves from the league meetings in Arizona:

“It was one of two major broadcasting changes decided at the Arizona Biltmore on Monday. The league announced that the Bills-Jaguars Week 7 game, to be played in London, will be broadcast over an as-yet-unnamed digital site and not on the league’s Sunday Ticket. The two home markets — Jacksonville and Buffalo — will still get the game on their home televisions.

“The move could be the first step toward a new digital strategy for the league.”

We can only hope.

Like most American, one of the few reasons I still have cable television is for live sports. In my case, that really means the NFL. I’m pretty sure I’m not alone when I say that I would gladly pay a reasonable fee – hopefully less than the “Sunday Ticket” package – to be able to watch the games online. It would be a risky proposition and there’s considerable doubt about whether the revenues would cover what they would lose in the value of network television rights. But my gut feeling is that it would work.